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The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 4:50am
Thomas More
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Bond Market

Effectively 35 years is a long time, and 34 years is a Fibonacci number. ie Maybe the tide is already going out.

The Stock Market is the bully that beats up Gold - the Bond Market is the number gaming system that allows the Stock Market to be a bully. Take the bull market away in Bonds - no more Stock Market Bully. You are left with a whimp, who will go running to Mama at the first bully nose.

We have all been saying this in different ways, even Libero, this is going to end very badly. None of us - me included - is prepared to work manually - hard work physical labor. We are hooked on "hand outs" and it is the hand out receivers who vote for the political system to stay in place - status quo.

Maple Leaf - as a Leafs fan - I can't believe how well they are playing! It has been a long wait! Last Stanley Cup 1967.

French Connexion
Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 6:43am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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hmm, 7.2years looks familiar

hmm, 7.2years looks familiar ...

Phi²=2.618-> x1000 = 2618 without a unit, lets assign it to a sun degree or in common language a day

2618days divided by 365 is oups 7.2years.

Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 9:19am (Reply to #11493)
eclectic
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DEFLATION OR MEDIA/ PSYOP CREATED PERCEPTION OF DEFLATION?

Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 9:31am (Reply to #11485)
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Pete wrote: If anyone is

Pete wrote:

If anyone is thinking of taking a short position or hedge (such as SH, put option, or other instrument/ETF) in stocks, a rebound to the circled area in Dec ES (Friday-Monday) is a good setup. Go short on an hourly reversal from the confluence of 3 important lines.

When price zooms the median line, it often comes back to it. The crossing of two such mls is an even stronger turning point area. Returns to passed R lines are often turning points too.

The best short/put position re risk/reward was on the daily close under the mpl trendline (on Oct 4).

I've been working on the same thing using all the techniques AM has shared with us since 2013. He led us to the river, it was up to us to drink. NO TA, or no Elliott. Just the weird stuff. 

The only piece of data I'll give out is that the yellow lines represent Earthquakes which you calculate using the similar tools that you do inflection points. 

Thankfully, humans are much smarter than their ancient counterparts who believed the moon caused irrational behavior.

Maybe it was Twain? Nina Simone? Or Donald Trump that said

"There is a tide in the affairs of men" - Shake-Spears

I have alot of work to do on price since I didn't see the depth of this drop but AM's comments on reversal of trends helps.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1g0AUhEa/

I hope this is ok to post. I have done the same for gold and silver. Haven't messed with bonds. 

Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 9:58am
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I noted on the main page

I noted on the main page maybe two or three posts ago, a chart showing the divergence of gold/yuan and a new relationship had formed. My hypothesis that this isn't a divergence but a reestablishment of an old relationship. I'll watch it for a few more weeks to see if my hypothesis is true. 

But my hypothesis stems from the commentary AM made earlier, here or in DOTS, about psychopathic behavior and "factions" and some hints of a turning of the tide in gold. That would seem to correlate with a new relationship and not some temporary divergence. I don't think my idea has yet been embraced but if it continues, that may change. 

Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 10:50am (Reply to #11487)
zman
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HappyNow wrote: zman yes you

HappyNow wrote:

zman yes you called it (the cuts to social programs) and yes this looks like prepping the peasants.

where does this leave all the ‘blame the immigrants’ memers?

Sounds like you believe there will yet be a rate hike or two, small, before it goes for a dive.

It's very funny, the new BS is "there's 7 million job openings" in the US economy. What did Trump's budget directer say about it? He said Trump wants to bring in as many legal immigrants into the US that's needed.

So it's blame the illegals and then quietly bring in millions of legal immigrants. It's beyond a joke at this point, they're going to make sure there's ZERO chance Joe Six-Pack ever sees any growth in wages.

"there will yet be a rate hike or two, small, before it goes"

Yeah, I don't think it's going to take much more from here. Will the EU even get a chance to make one rate hike? Not likely.

Wed, Oct 17, 2018 - 12:27pm
zman
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cuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/trump-pledges-to-cut-spending-as-deficit...

"We're going to be asking for a 5 percent cut from every secretary today". Trump told reporters"

Laughable, cut taxes for the elite and then complain there's not enough money and spending cuts are now needed.

Now it's time to get fiscally responsible, AFTER the corporate tax cuts which are used to buy back shares at all-time highs. Gotta love this version of "capitalism" today!!

This is all part of the deflationary plan, remember this is BEFORE any official economic weakness. Just wait until it turns down, the spending cuts will be unprecedented. By the time the bond bears get clued in, they're going to be in big trouble. 

Thu, Oct 18, 2018 - 2:54pm
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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The Hungarians are hungry.

The Hungarians are hungry.

Gold Alert: Central Bank Increases Reserves By 1000% - Mike Maloney

wow ...

Thu, Oct 18, 2018 - 3:57pm
zman
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2 year T-Bond

Did the yield peak today on the 2 year bond? It hit 2.91%, a multi year high, but closed down at 2.87%.

If the 2 year bond yield starts trading lower, that's the end of the rate hikes. Bond bears better pay attention, the economy and markets may not be as strong as they believe.

Mon, Oct 22, 2018 - 11:51am
zman
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Middle class tax cuts?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/donald-trump-tax-middle-income/i...

"Not for business at all, Trump said. For the middle class income people"

Give us a break already, there's NOT going to be any income tax cut for Joe Six-Pack and company, not gonna happen.

People have to understand, with all of this debt in the economy we can't have an increase in real demand.  If demand were to increase inflation would materialize and interest rates would move higher, that can NOT happen.

When the next recession occurs, we will see a massive cut to social benefits and potentially a tax HIKE on the middle class.  The elite are going to get increase rates down to 0% of not negative, this will be a deflationary economic policy.  

Cutting taxes for the very wealthy is NOT inflationary, that's why they got away with it and will continue to get away with the theft. 

Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 3:40am (Reply to #11490)
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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We want our argentus maximus

We want our argentus maximus back cheeky who is this Norm guy?

Ok, argentus maximus wrote:

"The gold price high was Sept 2011."

If we translate it to percentage, that's 2011.75 and if we add his magical number 7.2years ...

2011.75+7.2=2018.95, 95% of a year is 11.4months, so Gold could possibly turn around the 12th of December?

I recognize the number 7.2x12=86.4 ... keeps popping up here and there.

Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 9:33am
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US 10Yr Interest rates, 1944 and today compared

This is interest rates. There is a significant long term correlation, but on a day to day or week t week basis that correlation might be weak if calculated by a computer. The human eye and brain can do fuzzy logic very well and I leave it to readers to decide if the ivory tower people in charge are pulling their same stunts one more time. but I hear the cry this time is un-precedented, and in a way it is, however their reactions are not, those are repetitive in my view.

Note the duration of the consolidation pattern last wave bottom. It took a decade to break out.

Stocks (back then, had already made lows, and the following low was a higher one, but the  years are not a match with now, This is comparing bond yields past with bond yields present, not bonds with stocks.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 9:39am (Reply to #11502)
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You work them out. Good.

You work them out. Good.

There are very many anniversaries falling due during the coming several weeks. If these dates time the event, gold will attempt to break down and after the bull-bear clash that will be resolved one way or the other for a decent period.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 10:28am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Hunters Full Moon tomorrow,

Hunters Full Moon tomorrow, Gold is energized today, looks like another breakout to the upside ...

Full Moon: October Full Hunter Moon

The Hunter’s Moon Meaning
The Algonquin Native American tribes referred to October’s Moon as the Full Hunter’s Moon because time to go hunting in preparation for winter. Since the harvesters have reaped the fields, hunters can easily see the fattened deer and other animals that have come out to glean (and the foxes that have come out to prey on them).

*****

If you think about it, maybe it's time sell some and keep it for the winter, if you own common stocks that is.

Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 12:52pm
Thomas More
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A GLD chart

to give us a look at where we have been, and up to present.

Please ignore the two arrows in the middle of the page - they were drawn to show diminishing volume at the time.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/7unxm7ucpekh4pq/GLD%20231018.png?dl=0

French Connexion
Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - 1:08pm
zman
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Deflation

Yeah, no deflation here.  

Oil- down hard. Commodities down.   Euro stocks down. Emerging market stocks down.  US stocks down.  US Bond yields DOWN.   And the most important-  2 year US bond yield DOWN to 2.86%!!

So how does that make sense, IF the Fed is going to hike rates in Dec. and then another 3-4 times in 2019, why is the 2 year bond yield trading LOWER?  

I was told that higher deficits and debt lead to higher bond yields, bond bears are going to learn a very hard lesson.  

Let's keep our eye of the DOW/GOLD ratio,  the 200 DMA is solid support for this ratio. This downturn hasn't even allowed it to test it yet.  The long term trend shows this ratio is likely to turn around pretty soon, or higher stocks and lower gold. 

Wed, Oct 24, 2018 - 1:33pm
zman
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Down

Global stock markets DOWN- check.

US Dollar UP- check.

Bond yields DOWN- check.

Real money (gold) DOWN- check. 

Global liquidity being drained- check. 

People understanding the deflationary goals- no check, YET. 

Wed, Oct 24, 2018 - 6:02pm
zman
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Stocks down = Gold up????? Nope.

Well, major stock declines in Europe and emerging markets, and now US markets was SUPPOSE to give gold the energy to move higher, what happened?

Do we need to see more declines?   I doubt it.    Do we need to see the Fed waving the white flag and halt rate hikes?  I doubt it.   Do we need to see the Fed buy assets again?  I doubt it.

What do we need?   A massive change to fiscal policy.  It that likely to happen?  NO.  That's why gold won't rally.   The gold bugs are misleading investors on how the asset class works.  

Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - 5:30am (Reply to #11507)
Thomas More
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Good point zman. Effectively

Good point zman. Effectively we are in a Central Bank induced bind where the deflationary forces are driving USD up, Gold down. But what They are doing behind the curtain - huge stimulative borrowing amongst themselves - derivative trading on an ever increasing rate is keeping the situation in check. When something finally breaks - down we go - to be followed by a huge inflationary push IMO.

I like watching GLD as it's trading nicely shows the gap openings created by these angry.

We have to climb back above 117.55 on GLD to close the gap from July 16th.

Otherwise I posted a chart of SP:GC ratio on the podcast thread - stating your opinions (which I just read).

French Connexion
Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - 5:36am
Thomas More
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Admin

That should have read reply to 11497 (zman) I don't know what happened there.

I did forget to fill in the Subject Title line.

French Connexion

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