The setup for the big trade

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argentus maximus
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Enjoy this excellent analysis

Enjoy this excellent analysis by Mandy at Body Language Ghost (which used to be the "Bombard" channel) of Theresa May on an interview on Brexit:

I look at strategic behaviour to stimuli for my analysis. I can tell you that Mandy's more personal analysis technique has produced exactly the same conclusions as my methodology has, with regard to what the (faux) conservative party has done and is doing - and has not done and is not doing - for the Brexit it covertly opposes.

UKIP will rise further as a result of their deception of the trusting normies as realization filters in over time.

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Sorry to hear about your dad

Sorry to hear about your dad Silver66. Yes the old cycle ended with a bang ...

3minutes past midnight the 10th and this thing said hello to my hometown

I think the middle one with the bright light hit my house cos all car alarms went off for the whole street ... holy smokes.

The heat is over thank God, from +30-35°C for 3 months with no rain, down to 21° and with a lot of rain yes

The chart to the right is my open gamble in Aben Resources that I posted here in May. From 18c->38c in 2 days BANG!

Other than that I sometimes feel wrong footed, it's hard to walk against the crowd. My silver miners are licking the bottom of the trading range. My strategy to move into explorers instead of producers failed a bit, but not much ... yet.

Edit:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/671884#comment-671884

Oh, btw I noticed we got 6200 lightnings that night, that is the inversion of Phi x 10k

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It could be an interesting

It could be an interesting trading week,  gold is looking good in the paper market as speculation has been beaten down to almost zero.  I was thinking for at least one good reason to own gold in this deflationary environment. The best one I think of is the potential for bank "bail-ins".   

So even if the US dollar goes much higher and US bond yields go much lower, how can gold survive in this deflationary environment?    It really can't unless the fear of bank "bail-ins" becomes a distinct possibility.  

Will the elite to stupid enough to try bank "bail-ins" on the EU/US public?   

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I came across this

I came across this interesting article about frauds with bullion storage. Looks like it is nearly impossible to separate the weed from the chaff.

I gave them my money, I paid the storage fees, but it didn’t exist! What did they do with all that money for two years? And why did it take 9 weeks to collect?! Did it take that long for Goldmoney to find the metal on the open market? Or did it take 9 weeks for them to come up with the cash to buy it?! And if that’s the case, where the hell did they get the money? Was it from other customers?! Are we using new investors to pay for old ones?! Don’t we all know how that story ends??!!”

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I came across this

duplicate

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argentus maximus
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This came up on Main St TFMR

This came up on Main St TFMR maybe a week ago. It might be worth looking up how that discussion went.

The search engine didn't locate it for me just now, but with luck somebody here will remember the thread and post a link to enable review of what was said about that report.

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is this coincidental or right on que

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/11/conservatives-call-for-constitutional-convention-alec

do the numbers mean anything or just random??

Silver66

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zman

Because the nations discarded the objective definition of value (fixed weight and purity of currencies), then I tend to focus on relative rankings.  For example, in a deflationary environment that you describe someone holding gold may lose in absolute $terms but be better off relative to his fellow man.  If the gold investor retains 0.70 of $value while everyone else only retains 0.10 of $value in the FIRE economy, then the gold investor did 7x better relative to his peers.  Of course this means the investor who is all in $currency did the best, but do you know anyone who invests like that?  Investors large and small do not sit on piles of currency, and banks are fractionally reserved.  

I agree, bank bail-ins are one mechanism out of many shenanigans we may see in the near future.  The western nations have all signed up on paper after the 2008 financial crises.  Is this an ancient question?  Real versus virtual wealth?  Ownership (control) of real, tangible, physical resources (land, oil, gold, etc) or an account with a corporation with a number in an electronic ledger?  Both investors could suffer nominal losses in $value during a collective panic, but only one is exposed to counter-party risk.

Personally I believe that gold is the ultimate form of money and will eventually be used by the CBs to settle the nations debts to one another.

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Can today be a better example

Can today be a better example of why gold can't function for investors in this deflationary world?     Even with the US dollar trading flat today and the positive trend in the paper market,  gold is still getting crushed. 

What investors have to realize is that when some forms of debt start of lose value, that is very deflationary.    In fact, the reach for liquidity can often be selling gold.  

Gold has been telling the world for the past 3-4 months that deflation is the new theme for the global economy.  There is no stopping it at this point.  This is the plan and Trump can just watch as his silly dreams of making America great again just disappear into the global markets.  

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and my pm portfolio is

and my pm portfolio is finally in the red, it was fun as long as it lasted ...

Jumped out of Aben today, so allocation down to 66% ...

maybe a bounce soon, before the second of the seventh month at the latest.

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UncleFester wrote:Personally

UncleFester wrote:

Personally I believe that gold is the ultimate form of money and will eventually be used by the CBs to settle the nations debts to one another.

Agree and maybe that is what's going on right now?

lol, maybe we are closer to a bottom that we may think:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty081318.html

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I agree gold is the ultimate

I agree gold is the ultimate form of money, but that's when there's too much money flowing in the general economy.   Let's fact it, TPTB  are taking money out of the global economy and gold has been telling that to us for many mouths.  

My prediction-   the overall commodity market is the next one to show us about it.  If oil starts to tumble, we're going to see a rapid decline.  The sad thing is the commodity index is just a little bit higher than the Dec of 2015 lows and it's already showing very bad signs.

So Trump, if the economy is doing so great, why is the 10 year bond at 2.87%?   Why are tax receipts down in the dumps?    Why are real wages going DOWN?   Why is the trade deficit hitting all-time highs?    Why are commodities going LOWER?   Why are tens of millions of US citizens running towards socialism?   Why is the velocity of money still flat on its back?    Why is credit growth going LOWER for the past 2 years?    Why is the infrastructure plan already an old memory?

There is no real stimulus coming, there is no fear of it.   Instead of draining the swamp,  the swamp is draining the world of money.  

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Things are proceeding nicely:

Things appear to be proceeding nicely given the Setup thesis, and of the signposts we would expect to see if these are approximately correct - here is one such signpost:

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Hmmm .... Solsson got here

Hmmm .... Solsson got here first with this one (a few posts up). You've got to get up early to beat this particular crowd!

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Frank Holmes

FH is the ultimate contrary opinion indictor for gold.  I have a chart in my mind which could be reconstructed had I kept all the times when he was trotted out to extol the virtues of gold investing only to see it decline immediately.  That interview is a bad omen. It almost guarantees lower prices.  I wonder if he's paid by the insiders to mislead investors into buying just at the wrong time in order to add liquidity for the shorts.   

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I agree gold is the ultimate

I agree gold is the ultimate form of money, but that's when there's too much money flowing in the general economy.   Let's fact it, TPTB  are taking money out of the global economy and gold has been telling that to us for many mouths.  
/But they are propping up the stock and bond market, silver66 talked to a person who said that they never stopped the stimulus.

My prediction-   the overall commodity market is the next one to show us about it.  If oil starts to tumble, we're going to see a rapid decline.  The sad thing is the commodity index is just a little bit higher than the Dec of 2015 lows and it's already showing very bad signs.
/A double bottom here? The first deflationary crash in oil happened in 2015, now we are retesting it.

So Trump, if the economy is doing so great, why is the 10 year bond at 2.87%?   Why are tax receipts down in the dumps?    Why are real wages going DOWN?   Why is the trade deficit hitting all-time highs?    Why are commodities going LOWER?   Why are tens of millions of US citizens running towards socialism?   Why is the velocity of money still flat on its back?    Why is credit growth going LOWER for the past 2 years?    Why is the infrastructure plan already an old memory?

There is no real stimulus coming, there is no fear of it.   Instead of draining the swamp,  the swamp is draining the world of money.  

/They never stopped QE and according to Miss Nature they are going to increase it again soon.

Greg Mannarino has lost it, that man is funny ...

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My guess is that more QE

My guess is that more QE isn't going to accomplish very much for the gold market, been there done that for 10 years now.  Buying bonds mainly owned by the elite with printed money clearly doesn't enter the real economy.

The gold market is going to need something much more to excite it.  Low interest rates and QE does nothing.   I don't see the elite flooding Main Street with currency, not gonna happen.  

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Never underestimate how

Never underestimate how creative these clowns can be when using other peoples' money to get what they want.

Consider this as one example of how QE could be given to the public, but at the same time the money is actually given to the banker members of the Fed:

Debt moritorium, or zero interest rates on delinquent student loans, whereby the indebted student takes on more debt eg buys property and then qualifies for the relief on the old never-to-be-repaid debt. Selling points: look how much rent money you will save if you avail yourself of this one time in a lifetime deal. 

Delinquent student loans get exchanges for mortgages, the bad debts are sponsored with taxpayers money, the debt load is sustained thus not reducing the number of dollars in existence, etc.

It could be done with credit card debt. It could be done with free medical care of bankrupt boomer pensioners, sign your house and we take care of you, live in the house till you die, then it goes to us.

There are lots of ways ....

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And here comes down the

And here comes down the commodity prices, platinum and palladium crashing today.

My guess is this is just the start, oil and other commodities are in big trouble here.  How can India, China, Turkey, and others purchase commodities and PM's when their currencies are so weak?   They can't.  

This is what happens in a deflationary global economy,  the US dollar goes higher and bond yields go lower.   

argentus maximus
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Gold Euro Cross

This chart shows where the gold bulls' trenches had been dug before Draghi's, SNB 's, BISs' amd IMF's FX dealers were sent over the top:

Status of the rising long term trend channel is that it has been compromised, and support from the descending mid-channel is the scene for the next fight. That would be over whether down momentum can be increased or not, to provoke possibility for further XAU:EUR descent into the back end of 2018.

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argentus maximus
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This analysis - global markets

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