This is basis the SLV fund.
It's in weekly with the familiar proprietary projected price in two forms - a sensitive and less reliable forecasted price in smoke blue, and a less sensitive but many times more robust price forecast in red.
For a period after March, about April and May, it looked like a possible inversion occurred. I don't show the inverted projection because the last couple of weeks are hinting that if there had been an inversion it may have returned to normal.
Some interesting times have been marked with dates.
The dismissal and retention of support/resistance as price walks forwards is an objective way to verify if the price is following the subjective projected scenario or doing something else entirely.
Not financial advice, this is for discussion and study purposes. I trade or may trade these assets. All previous disclaimers still apply.
(you might like to place those dates beside a chart of spot gold to see if anything or better, two out of three things match.)
1/2 x 18-19 = 9
1999/2000 ~~~~~ +9 ~~~~~~2009 ~~~~~~~~ +9 ~~~~~~ 2018/0
Stocks high-gold low Stocks low stocks up-gold down-what next?
Lara has now moved her favoured EW count for gold to the alternative whereby the range low will be for a larger longer range than she preferred last week. She has moved up a fractal scale by looking for a lower low than before. I am now only one scale above the one that her public count now inhabits.
There are now only a few months to go before the big power contest - which is represented by the gold price - reaches crisis point and a global power decision is achieved- in my humble opinion.
I see that our Setup For The Big Trade forum has passed by the 2.5 million views sometime this week.
Many thanks to all who visit, and especially thanks to those of you who post and a really major THANK YOU for the voluntary contributors who have the generosity to bring your thoughts and work here and share this with the many readers of this most unusual forum.
With three quarters of a million subscribers I think Grace Randolph's Youtube channel on the movies industry could be called one level below mainstream media.
Here is Grace's synopsis on the the Star Wars fan's (fans of all kinds) reactions and protests to being told by Social justice warriors to shut up and accept the stuff SJWs put into these movies. Then being shouted at and vilified as bigots in the SJW biased media.
Short story - as in Gamergate, and as continuing right now in Comicsgate, the Star Wars fans upon being told to "Go elsewhere if you don't like the movies we make" have replied forcefully "No! We are not leaving. We are staying right where we are! You get out!"
And I have kept you up with this - particularly if you took my earlier posts and did a little personal work with the sources I introduced.
Watch the video. Grace does it justice.
The thing about ths is, this is not Trump supporters standing up to SJWs. It's people of all sorts. Trump talks to the right. Jordan Peterson talks to the left and calls them to move centrewards (Peterson represents a counter attack on SJW activism by centre left liberals which is why Vox Day dislikes him) .
This is mainstream counter sentiment rising. It will change everything soon, including things nobody can presently imagine. You see, the protestors are also leaders of the rest and they have a belief of justification in what they do to preserve values of the good side.
It's still well below the water level and invisible to normies, but the activists, the far right and the far left are acutely aware that they are coming increasingly under attack by the middle. A middle that before now would back down when bullying tactics were applied. But no longer.
Speaking of which: have you heard about what happened to new student registrations at Wilfred Laurier Uni and Evergreen Uni? They have a problem. people are refusing to go there. Registrations are down 15% and more, and budgets are blowing up. Firings will commence soon if those higher up want to preserve position, as they undoubtedly will. It will be interesting watching the better of their opponents going higher in the organizations after the real trouble maker top brass.
Now those are egregious examples of activism exposed and the reaction of normal respectable people to this propagandism of the young in education. As I intimated already, what is visible informs about what is not visible. Across the world, extreme politics in education will be more and more called out for what it is, and differentiated from the caring thing it purports to be.
The war against the political class has gone up a notch with Star Wars and Kathleen Kennedy's attitude that "The Force is Female". Because the geeks and fans love their niche so much they won't be intimidated to leave it. Far left-ism has reached its social boundary, and is becoming frayed at the edges like a cabbage leaf being nibbled by thousands of caterpillars.
The activists, the controllers of the activists, will need to go Spinal Tap and "Turn it up to eleven". We get to see where the reinforcements come from if we pay attention at this point.
Meanwhile, Disney has become a management case study in how to take a four billion dollar franchise, and through giving control of it to a radical feminist SJW, turn it into a junkyard fire. That example should be good for a half century of corporate training courses. How soon will that lesson roll out into other corporations that are right now feeding the global SJW movement by in house discrimination under the positive discrimination banner?
The informed consumer is king until the internet is subdued. Which is another battle.
But .... with pushback increasing on all fronts, just consider what that will do to economic decisions made by the embattled political elites who have upcoming elections and career endings attached in their long range vision. Central banks are about to get a little more leaned on.
For those who count the saw teeth and don't need average smoothing tools so much. I accept this conflicts with the mindset of some people following markets but I'll be blunt about that. If it does cause conflict you need to pay attention to what is rather than what "should be". Not that a fractal approach gives all the answers, far from it. But it gives a few.
I don't trade EW, it's not that good. It always has alternative scenarios which is difficult. And it flips between them. But that is reality. One minute one party is winning and then another group pulls some stunt and fate changes and they are winning until the next reaction occurs with some other powermonger. So EW is always included in the total factors I use to trade. It's a realtime evaluation system with partial odds calculating implications for what comes next. Same as for cycles but different! Once you understand these schools of interpretation, you can understand the language that markets speak with a little better and get closer to having that elusive "edge".
I am expecting a turn here, I bought in heavy yesterday wish me good luck!
I want a $200 dollar spike in Gold and $9 dollar spike in Silver! Bo Polny promised me that and looking at his trackrecord I bet it's going to happen in July
Gold weekly projection update
This is basis the GLD ETF:
There are obvious problems with this projection. Upon close inspection, the sub swings are sometimes running opposite, while at the same time the overall bigger swings are looking a good correlation.
Anyway, that's what state of the art for approach comes up with. I'd give it a third the robustness of the SLV projection above, estimated before the fact. It goes against pundits calling for an important low now. The projection "prefers" that now is an interim low, and a major low is nearby. Whichever, it is a backdrop against which ongoing market swings can be compared as they unfold.
The VAP on the left is interacting well with the forecasted potential swings to and from support and resistance (selling and buying ignition prices).
We will soon see.
'It goes against pundits calling for an important low now. The projection "prefers" that now is an interim low, and a major low is nearby.
The trend is down into December according to your SLV and GLD projections. Nearby is six months away?
The next half ..... exactly!
Here is a seasonal for SLV. The first and second half are similar, but not exactly. A fast rise and a slower fall.
Volatility is higher around the year end and beginning, and price swings are wider during eg Q4 and Q1. Which means the high and low for a year tend to be at the start or end.
Interference moves the volatile period to when money is being pumped in or sucked out, money, not silver or SLV certificates.
And naturally the longer trend matters much more than the seasonal tendency which is merely that, a tendency.
Now if you look at that typical second half, and imagine a bear trend pushing downwards, there are three typical lows for a "biggest low" to slot into. Nobody knows and stops are the best we have.
After the above post yesterday, it seems this may be a good day to post a similar view of the seasonal in GLD:
US-side: The guy on the right, Prof Bret Weinstein, both his first speaking opportunity, and also during the Q&A has a lot of interesting things to say:
Jump forwards to the parts where he holds the microphone for the better parts. The guy on the left beside the chairman is also good.
UK-side of the ocean: Here is Sargon of Akkad on the left dominated establishment and its docile media and their reaction to libertarian internet personalities joining the UK Independence Party:
The first part of the video .....
I posted this in January: https://s.tradingview.com/x/GXNNct0C/
Fast forward to today and zoom in: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lmhInO0W/
Just one scenario I am considering. Keep in mind this is weekly spot$, wave 3 down could already be complete. Will watch the rest of the week to see how it plays out.
volume reversal day too
Hindsight: The Babson projection method of an impulse wave (using the R lines of the relevant prior correction) proved accurate. R3 is often the target. Price went but 2.25 pts above R3.
Foresight?: R2 has been a soft support area recently. Watch the obvious intersection of weekly lines for a low reaching the prior swing low at 2552 in Sep ES, in about 7 weeks. The 3p line is very strong. A break below would be a violation of key support.
Up 43% Tuesday. This drug could change the face of CNS diseases.
This could help mankind.
Let's be ballsy about this. Here is spot gold versus the US dollar:
I put in the long term bear trendline (descending from 2011 in blue) and also the recalibrated version of this (descending from 2011 in red) across the mid 2016 high to illustrate where the buyers and sellers come out to trade.
The medium term trends are also shown as they govern the smaller price swings.
Now here is the question: Has there yet been a serious (long term or high volume or both) retest of that descending red-blue pair showing the bear ?
If not, and we are hoping for a bull, why would such get going before the retest of the bears' powers?
And if that is the case, and a retest is going to materialize, and this should coincide with a certain time which happens to be the right hand edge of this chart, then would the green projection not be possible and something to consider seriously?
And if the blue were to be the one retested, would that involve a new low, briefly, not followed through, just to break sentiment and collect the gold sold by the lambs occupying the slaughterhouse that day? And such a low would be a little lower than the one shown in green, just under the Dec 2015 bottom.
The prices are on the chart. The last is unmarked for some reason or other, but still clearly visible.
If this proceeds, the summer 2018 gold bulls of this trading range low, are way off the mark.
Using a pitchfork approach there is a fascinating descending range bisection during 2017 which has been retested, and can form the base of a pitchfork.
I show it here, and left my crosshairs at the date the next projected low, where it meets that pick pitchfork.
More needs to be done on this, as price walks forwards, but it's a less bearish way for a four year reversal bottom pattern to be created, and it has a quite attractive fit with prices since 2015 going for it.
Basis weekly GLD:
There is also an intriguing fractal shown, which appears to have flipped into inversion. the next turn would be proximate, but different, to the low of the projection.
There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms. An initial pop and drop would make one of the declines fit with the summer swoon. The stock market is much more interesting. JMHO
That long gold forecast could go wrong at any pivot. Any time during 89 months. Even now, or tomorrow it might diverge from the Big Setup forecast. But not thus far.
It has been amazing to see it stick on track all this time. It is still not yet there, but at last I am now drawing buy stops downwards above the current trading levels as it calibrates (during the next rally) before the next (hopefully downwards) swing.
The stock market. Totally scary. I have a sense which could be described as walking on a frozen lake with thin ice, and more and more people coming out onto the ice. A few look big of frame, some others are gathering in tight groups rather than spreading out. There are funny noises coming from the ice. Nobody wants to be the first to go back in to dry land.
But it's melting.
Time has arrived to sell rallies incrementally via upwards tracking stops I think. Not simply sell, but track up and be taken out high by the market. Time to rework the stops to their next optimal function.
Watch utilities. Watch income generating assets. There is a rotation in hand.
The arbitrage algos are tight, the ratio in the middle is showing very small differences. Then there is the curious matter of the discontinued FRED chart. Possibly some lifeboats are being quietly lowered out of view on the other side of the ship. Against that the central bankers do take turns spending our money to get the results they desire. A partial low grade bonds exit? What afterwards?
It's a curious thing....
kentucky wrote: There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms...
There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms...
Well isn't that the time to be really interested, buy low sell high. I've been excited to pick cheap miners for most of the year. Do not care about the stockmarket, that is a thing of the past I am looking forward.
Lets compare First Majestic Silver with the all mighty stockmarket since I made my move early February.
S&P500= (2760-2533)/2533=+9% (2533 the superlow from 8th Feb)
First Majestic=(10.83-6.24)/6.24=+73% (6.24 from the very same day)
Another thing is that FM has a possible bright future looking at global fundamentals, stockmarkets not so much ...
That is one solid trend. It looks like FM has put on the boots and is out on a long march, left-right left right ...