The setup for the big trade

11592 posts / 0 new
Last post
Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - 7:34pm (Reply to #10971)
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Thomas More wrote:I used to

Thomas More wrote:
I used to like cycles - counting them out like (Fibonnaci series) - big problem with that is that you anticipate a bottom or a top, and you do not trade the market that you've got (David Morgan).

"Trading" would involve waiting until the presupposed moment, isolating a price level criteria at which being wrong is clarified by price, and putting on a position with a stop. If the stop survives you were right and catching profits becomes the game. If the stop is taken you were wrong and you are out with most of your money intact to roll the dice again. (I chose that phrase intentionally!)

Thomas More wrote:
 The other big problem - our markets are totally manipulated, so pretending they are not can get you in trouble.

Well - when you count the time out does your prediction still work or does it fail? If not then the manipulations overcome your cycles and are "outside" their compass. If the count holds, like stops above, then the manipulations are "within" the cycle and it encloses their effects. Actually your cycle could even be tracking the manipulators themselves. So your tests results are used to verify your system's success and reliability - if it has those features.

There is this: if I see a cycle the professionals and their computers saw it too. Next time round will be different because of that. This feedback loop must be allowed for or every stop I set will get taken out. It's a game of figuring how far they can drive it to get me. I must stand behind big money and use it as my shield. Often, charts posted in Setup show where the big money will come in.

Thomas More wrote:
Otherwise effectively 2022 could be a market top - but then I have a really hard time believing that things would not fall apart before then!
Me too!

But I allow for as much to go wrong with my trades as I can imagine before I put them on. Above all I hate to lose capital and it's so easy to do exactly that. I try to trade infrequently and catch larger than normal swings.

Thomas More wrote:
 What's wrong with "The trend is your friend?"
The call of the moving average followers, Turtle traders, et al! What's wrong with is specifically is that whenever I go to see what the trend is, when I look at one month it is opposite to the trend if I look at 3 months, and that will be usually opposite to what I see if I look at eg 12 months! So the theory is great, but in practice not so easy to implement as other people think it is.

But still we try our best .... Thanks for posting.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Mar 12, 2018 - 10:20pm (Reply to #10972)
silver66
Offline
Joined: Oct 8, 2012
3336
15583

cycles

I like how a simple question can draw out such thoughtful answers.

To AM's answer I would say ditto. wink

Seriously I have thought about cycles since my late teens and only into my late forties did I start to pay attention to them. Probably the verse that would jump to the forefront of my mind as I would think about cycles comes from

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes+3&version=NIV

I like to garden and there is a cycle in that hobby and then you add in the moon and the sun etc. Change topics and I can throw in the old Celtic cross and the wisdom of cycles are there hidden in plain site.

So what does this has to do with money and why did I post that video. I posted it because I think there is going to be an incredible opportunity to take the wealth that has been generated in this bull cycle of stocks and bonds and interest rates and port it over to gold. There will then be a time to buy a boatload of great businesses dirt cheap with my gold. I have always thought that if you were really honest with your analysis of stocks and the 1982 lows, that it really did not matter what you bought but that you bought and let the equity cycle take over. As I said I think we get another opportunity in the next 2-4 years.

That is why I think the permanent portfolio is such a good way for most to position themselves. If you google what happened to Icelanders portfolios in 2008 and then see what happened to those that had the permanent portfolio in iceland, it is a breathtaking real world example of how some were able to port money through a crash and preserve and grow their wealth.

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 4:13am (Reply to #10973)
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Verses

silver66 wrote:
>>>... Probably the verse that would jump to the forefront of my mind as I would think about cycles comes from

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes+3&version=NIV.. <<<

I'll see your Ecclesiastes 3 and raise you an Ecclesiastes 1:9

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes+1:9&version=KJV

I took up gardening myself just over a year ago, so I appreciate those comments.

In markets, it takes one just read of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator to actually get it - that markets are the same they always were. The scamsters didn't get their game down to microseconds scale, but nonetheless all the same tricks were pulled a hundred years ago. I recorded a videoblog article to that effect in 2014. If anybody is interested here it is:

"Laundry Day" and Some Gold and Dow Rhythms - RNP #171 - 3 Aug 2014

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 6:18am
Thomas More
Online
Joined: Nov 4, 2015
784
3079

cycles

Oddly enough we discussed Ecclesiastes yesterday with my Daughter. My wife had said, "Chaque jour suffit sa peine." I said that it came from Mt 6, 33 - my daughter mixed your two citations. (Turd posts Lk 12 in very small print - same citation)

Yes I believe in cycles. I read a book some years ago on the Kondratiev cycle which was predicting a major down cycle for the 1990s. I think he was right, it is just that They have pushed things along much further than nature would have allowed - with the accumulation of consequences which we will have to pay for soon - ie made matters much worse. So I agree with both of your arguments - even for trading. I don't trade anymore - just look at what a time our friend Turd is having giving a narrative to each day's trading. 

ArMax I think that you have to know yourself and to trade accordingly. Managing your losses are by far the most important aspect IMO to being a successful trader. Once you know the length of "cycle or trend" that you are trading - then trade accordingly. Effectively I could not trade like Greg Mannarino - I trade for 3 month periods - not counting getting stopped out. 

Silver 66 You are right that this is a once in a lifetime setup that lies before us. I went through the 2008 debacle. I can't tell you how stressful that was for me - three times Wall St closed down. Same thing in 1987 - I was short one SP future (500$ a point) - I tried to phone my broker in Toronto - the telephone exchanges were jammed (I lived in Canada at the time). You had to telephone London to place an order. Everything shut down - I tried for several hours to buy my short back - I did get through eventually - I think the CME was limit down (buying only) - then I got telephone confirmation of my fill. If you want the stress, go for it - it's like playing Russian roulette because the guys on the other side of your trade are the House - if They lose you lose. Pigs get Fat, Hogs get slaughtered. I was one lucky turd - I should have ended up with MF Financial with Jon Corzine at its head. But because they had a presence in France they sold off the futures broker I dealt with to another.

Actually it was NWview who gave perhaps the best biblical citation for all of this. He recited Abraham and his nephew Lot split up because their combined herd had become too important for their pasture - so Abraham gave Lot the choice. Lot chose the furtile valley of Sodom and Gomorrah. God was not pleased with the sin He found in these two cities, but because of Lot, He sent two angels to tell Lot to Get Out of Town! Lot took his time, but his wife Sara didn't fare so well.

As much as I have placed the Bien Commun (common good/collective wealth) of our family in PM - I am not a Midas - at least I hope I am not! But I do particularly like the Passover citation of Ex 12, 35-36 - and off they went into the desert.

Happy Easter

PS In the short film - the current up move on the right hand side that we are currently in - IMHO would (and should have been) a continuation of the down move that was in place. This was not desired, so we've got something else - for a time.

French Connexion
Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 2:49pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Did I mention May can be

Did I mention May can be important for stocks?

Curiously Bitcoin has an inflection in common with the Dow, though the signals have come from different source data.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 3:33pm (Reply to #10975)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
979
3867

Thomas More wrote: I could

Thomas More wrote:

I could not trade like Greg Mannarino ...

mmm, when ever I see the numbers 33-47-66 my fake-o-meter goes to red. These are esoteric elite numbers, funny thing is Greg hit all of them with his three trades yesterday.

3/12/18. Post Market Wrap Up PLUS: EYES ON CRYPTO! Here's Why. By Gregory Mannarino

33=Number of vertebrae in the spine,

47=Capricorn & Cancer 47º apart a solar worship

66=Double 33 or a pregnant woman perhaps, according to neo-pagan&modern freemason the number means material gains.

Remember the poison scandal lately. The Russian dad was 66years old and his daughter 33=fake news trying to demonize Russia?

Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 5:53pm
Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 6:40pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

13/3/18: Another Brick in the

13/3/18: Another Brick in the Secular Stagnation Wall

Another brick in the Secular Stagnation Wall: global productivity growth has now collapsed in all major groups of economies:


And the short-lived blip to the upside over the late 2014 in the advanced economies is now... well, short-lived. More at Constantin Gurdgiev's Blog

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 13, 2018 - 8:55pm
UncleFester
Offline
-
nunya, MS
Joined: Jul 13, 2011
332
1334

Update

https://s.tradingview.com/x/VsN7DSaf/

That 1.38 fanline is being quite stubborn. As stated before I expect spot to break down and approach the 1.0 fanline, now near $1280. Take it with a grain of salt as I completely missed the low volume meltup from December.

Cheers to silver66, kentucky, Thomas More, ecclectic, etc (raises pint)...the last week here at the Setup has been thought provoking. For ideas, a time to reap and a time to sow. Looking back, I find it fascinating that the fictional works of Ayn Rand led me to read Hayek, Mises and Rothbard, which led me to von Bawerk, de Tocqueville, and eventually Kondratiev. I think you might find it interesting that the last book I read was Heiser's Hidden Realm. And it was recommended by an old fart I thought was at least agnostic if not an atheist. Go figure.

Solsson...hang in there, this too shall pass. Chin up, the days are getting longer!

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Wed, Mar 14, 2018 - 12:56pm
kentucky
Online
-
maggie valley, NC
Joined: Jun 20, 2011
112
333

Hurst cycle webnar on gold

kentucky
Wed, Mar 14, 2018 - 1:15pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Main scenario: possibly,

Main scenario: possibly, seven to ten months to go.

Will gold get from range highs to range lows during 2018? We'll see. The danger as I see it, is that forex splits from being homogenous anti gold asset class into separate streams, as forex breadth dissipates. That would allow gold to break up against some forex and down against others. Probably not. But possibly. What works is reality not some theory about what it might do and I will rock and roll with the storm as best I can if and when it arrives. If it arrives.

Behind the scenes BIS and IMF and other Cabal institutions are at the suitable time to be planning their schemes right now, and (mis)leading press releases are to be expected.

IMF selling all its gold style announcements due next month possibly, repetition into mid year, silent failure to carry out the sales at year end. Their members and anti cabal nations buying for their own accounts at all those times.

Deflationary news works against gold if interest rates hold up, therefore deflationary news would be enabling for the scenario. Remember, these people and their institutions can pull the rug from under economies, so deflationary news can be real and at the same time created. Peace treaties could get used media-wise so as to have similar effects in gold price depression.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Mar 14, 2018 - 2:43pm (Reply to #10977)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
979
3867

Solsson wrote: Remember the

Solsson wrote:

Remember the poison scandal lately. The Russian dad was 66years old and his daughter 33=fake news trying to demonize Russia?

Theresa May expels 23 Russian diplomats over Salisbury spy attack as Moscow claims Britain has 'chosen confrontation'

23=The Earth tilt two three's=33

hahaha ... priceless!

Thu, Mar 15, 2018 - 1:16pm (Reply to #10982)
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Top class post from TFMR Main St

I copied this great post from Main St:

Bohemian wrote:

Reply to: Gold Hated By Everyone Okay, I think we can "call it" ... by Bohemian March 15, 2018 - 4:33pm.

Trump had enough time to deal with the problems, or just suggests that -- he understands it and will try. Nope. We are running out of time. It's not about what's going on right now, or what somebody has said during the 2008-2009 crisis. It's about debates we had in 70's and 80's, and the WRONG turn in mid 90's. So, let's go back to the IMF meeting in Belgrade, 1979. It's not a coincidence that only very few people know today what actually happened. In the late 90's, I was reading some of those posts of Another (Thoughts!) and later FOA. It was "familiar" to me, but this whole thing was written "in clouds" and was not really specific. The only explanation was, that they were some "insiders." If you don't know what it was about, you can check this outline --

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!), Foundational Gold Trail Commentary, The Inside Story on the Gold-for-Oil Deal that could Rock the World's Financial Centers

https://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

----

Okay, let's leave this world of "legends" and go back to the facts, the critical meeting in Belgrade, 1979. At first, the so called Eurodollar, that's the European Monetary System established in 1978. As for the new world monetary system and the gold-back world currency, that's also Belgrade, 1979. Another (Thoughts!) and FOA came with this in the late 90's, because the IMF meeting in Belgrade didn't solve the problems and conflicts of interests, and everything was just postponed.

This is a very interesting commentary, because -- as I remember, the authors describe it exactly how I remember it was. Particularly the comment of McNamara is telling and we ARE facing it today:

Okay, I think we can "call it" ...

Submitted by Bohemian on March 15, 2018 - 4:33pm.

"The day of Monory's speech, World Bank President Robert McNamara made a direct reply to France and Mexico. Addressing as well Yugoslav President Tito's opening statement that North-South economic relations are the world's central issue, McNamara said the fol­lowing: "The main problem in the world is overpopu­lation. Either birth rates will decline or mortality rates will increase. To increase mortality rates in a thermon­ uclear age presents no problem. A war could meet the goal very rapidly."

Just download these 4 pages and read it. The "picture" becomes quite clearer now.

https://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/1979/eirv06n39-19791009/eirv06n39-19791009_014-the_imf_meets_in_belgrade_the_sh.pdf

IMF has out there it's 1979 Annual report. It's also very interesting, particularly the part about gold transactions.

Bohemian has sync-ed into the underlying time structure in his post and has brought together many of the gold factors with the links to IMF, Another, FOA etc

Check out his links.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Mar 15, 2018 - 9:40pm
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
971
3511

Oh, the Ides!

Today was not a good day for April gold if one can judge by the EOD close.

Today's settlement of 1317.8 was just above the minor h, but the end of day close was at 1316.2, under the h, perhaps triggering the 2nd h bounce pattern. Potentially very bearish in this position. This would set up a potential drop to the ml, which has already been reached once.

The upsloping H from the December low was just touched at the March 1 low, making that H a highly sensitive support angle. Price touched it again today. There could be lots of sell stops just under it. Trading below the range of the last 5 days may trigger additional selling, even an avalanche of long liquidation.

Should this ensue, the loose confluence of the ML, ml, and 0-Y line is the probable target area (next support).

The DX chart is also showing a possible 2nd H bounce pattern with potential for a sharp upward move.

Fri, Mar 16, 2018 - 11:05am
silver66
Offline
Joined: Oct 8, 2012
3336
15583

Smart money selling to dumb money ?

AM has postulated that the big unseen money and wall street is always looking to fleece joe six pack. Is this confirmation ?? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-16/bofa-stunned-record-wall-money... did joe six pack get out of stocks in 2009 only to miss the first 200% rise and is now chasing at the topping process ??. Is this allowing wall street to unload their equity to the unsuspecting public or is TINA in full effect silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Mar 16, 2018 - 2:58pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Gold (GLD ETF) Medium term

Gold (GLD ETF) Medium term update:

Here is GLD in weekly, with one trendline , and momentum, also one time cycle:

The range high, a lower high than last time it was tested, was recently defended at 12.50. The volume consumed is clearly shown in VAP and in the hotbars, and price of GLD is currently under this defended level.

VAP shows a contested l;evel at 120, not too far below, at which some traders will come out to deal. There is a place at 123 which could accommodate a period of trading if volume can be found there. It wasn't previous times through that price.

If GLD trades near 126 - 126.50 and doesn't get above, the easier direction will be towards medium term range lows, probably through 120 after a pause there.

Buyers will come out at the descending trendline if GLD approaches those prices. I would trade there myself, with stops in case it decides to get lower.

123 and 120 need to go to trigger lower opportunities.

A late year low for this year if it came on the descending trendline would be at 108-ish, which would also happen to be a double bottom with end 2016 low, if it went that way.

We have had end of year lows for a few years now, and a number of non insider traders are working off that. This might be sufficient reason to flip the seasonal into an alt seasonal.

Paranational big money like eg IMF likes to play at the quarters. Don't write off the possibility of a quarterly low or false break right at that time, preparatory to a fast reversal designed to capture traders into out of the money positions. That is one way a rout could be organized in Q3-Q4. We might even see a mini version do a trial run in Q1-Q2.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Mar 16, 2018 - 7:50pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Happy St Patrick's Day to all

Happy St Patrick's Day to all of you !

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Mar 17, 2018 - 7:14am (Reply to #10986)
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
8170
47854

silver66 wrote:AM has

silver66 wrote:
AM has postulated that the big unseen money and wall street is always looking to fleece joe six pack. Is this confirmation ?? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-16/bofa-stunned-record-wall-money-inflows-equities-has-three-warnings did joe six pack get out of stocks in 2009 only to miss the first 200% rise and is now chasing at the topping process ??. Is this allowing wall street to unload their equity to the unsuspecting public or is TINA in full effect silver66

That's not mom and pop. They're out. Fed pumping went into bigger hands, and capital flows fleeing. They didn't come in 2017 or 2018 either.

https://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/517975766/while-trump-touts-stock-market-many-americans-left-out-of-the-conversation

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/08/business/economy/stocks-economy.html

Long term topping process? Might be far away...

Greenspan, CNBC, Seekingalpha and many more called it a bubble. Many of the "luminary" gold analysts have been calling a bubble and the call back into gold is strong again.

Retail participation is way too low to be in a bubble.

This has nothing to do with a shorter term reality.

First time in a long time, I read a couple of posts here about investors considering a "mix" for long term financial survival. Change of sentiment? 

Did AM say something about May? Can't remember. 

Maybe I'll decide what I'm doing longer term (into 2019) after that. 

Sat, Mar 17, 2018 - 10:08am
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
979
3867

Solsson at his trading desk,

Solsson at his trading desk, thinking he is not clever enough to figure out the precious market. 

IQ test indicated a quota at 55, not brilliant but he was glad it was a Fibonacci number yes

Yaaaawn lets get back to sleep ...

Sat, Mar 17, 2018 - 2:13pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3636
24396

Ronnie Fattal on gold and

Ronnie Fattal on gold and silver against the US Dollar:

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold & Silver as of 17th March 2018

This (Fattal's main interpretation if it continues as a valid count) ties in with my timing scenarios pretty well.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

The TFMR Silver Round
Doc and TF Partnership Advertisement

Recent Comments

by Thomas More, 1 min 48 sec ago
by Thomas More, 1 hour 56 min ago
by atarangi, 4 hours 30 min ago
by atarangi, 5 hours 5 min ago
by abundance, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:53pm
randomness