More characteristics of lows than highs.
Longer term context about frequency of this situation:
I am sensitive to not turning this forum into a DOTS, however swings in psychology seem to be a worthwhile topic for this forum Today on ZH https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-08/global-populism-rises-highest-... Silver66
Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light
Yes. In general I keep it a bit closer to the market prices or the trader's psychology, underlying cyclical forces etc. These last few posts have been more general mood measurement in content.
They might have been better collated into a single article for the AM blog and separate the subject matter that way. Better said than missed out though!
And DOTS does the "off market" philosophy so well. On rare occasions I copy a post and put it here and there. That always feels a bit odd when I do it.
But ... cycles .... If you detect emotive forces out there in the population at large, that are reminiscent of eg 18, 36 years ago - how does that convert into making a trade of investment? Easy: go to 72, 144 years back to see what a big version of the same psychology is going to do and how it works out. Then go down from 18 to eg 9, and see if the smaller scale can be traded with ega 4 year asset price swing net upwards or downwards.
And on that did anybody see this real estate transaction report?
Rothschild family sells large Austrian hunting estate
they bought it in 1875, a period of 143 years ago.
How about that? Next year it will be 2 x North Korean Wars ago.
I wonder who else of the elites are moving to cash?
Nice quiet place to chill and do a little hunting:
Tx for the support I will survive. I am an amateur pharmacist, check out my latest addition carbon-c60 (snakeoil?) the tiny bottle with a red ring next to the manuka-honey.
Tx for your replies in RNP and yes I've joined the Bauer-family by investing in a company supported by them. The tiny miner closed a half billion deal yesterday.
huge dilution by 40% but then you also got a new producing mine in Yukon in a year or so. I think this will go to $4 in 3-5years.
I found this video very helpful in deciding on the % allocation to gold in an asset portfolio. This same fellow has many other interesting videos on saving with gold, etc. He seems to have a balanced approach to the whole issue of stacking and saving.
AM and I have discussed this offline over the last few years.
I encourage you to look up Fuggar the Rich, he is top ten wealthiest in history no one has heard about. Ray Dalio has utilized his ideas to great success.
This video is proposing his strategy.Which I think is an excellent strategy.
The benchmark 10yr note yield closed at 2.90% on Friday, the highest weekly close in months. Meanwhile, the futures show that a potential turn to lower rates about 2 weeks back didn't materialize (no upside follow-through in the futures) and Friday the futures closed under the R1 line in a down week. The 10yr note appears in a very weak position with the interest rate rise to continue.
Solsson wrote: I am not pointing fingers here, but Silver_Surfer and Pete do you see the difference? Solsson a great contributor to this thread and Sollson that doesn't exist Ok, why is there such a humongous difference between AM's Gold&Silver projections for SLV&GLD? Has anyone figured it out? I am clueless ... Ok, another anomaly, Silver is more of a commodity so why is the shiny metal looking so gloomy compared to it's big sister? I do not think the long trend supportline will ever be broken again.
I am not pointing fingers here, but Silver_Surfer and Pete do you see the difference? Solsson a great contributor to this thread and Sollson that doesn't exist
Ok, why is there such a humongous difference between AM's Gold&Silver projections for SLV&GLD? Has anyone figured it out? I am clueless ...
Ok, another anomaly, Silver is more of a commodity so why is the shiny metal looking so gloomy compared to it's big sister?
I do not think the long trend supportline will ever be broken again.
I believe we will see triple digit silver at some point, but something tells me you're not gonna like my silver chart.
argentus maximus wrote: March 5, 2018 - 2:48pm .... May for the Dow still. Hard to say why. A retracement top? An intermediate low? If it makes strength into May I think I'll unload some long term assets. That would be a guess it's a retracement (secondary) high if it works out that way. Time to get into stocks VAP levels and medium term momentum evaluation work....
May for the Dow still. Hard to say why. A retracement top? An intermediate low? If it makes strength into May I think I'll unload some long term assets. That would be a guess it's a retracement (secondary) high if it works out that way. Time to get into stocks VAP levels and medium term momentum evaluation work....
Trader Joe is also beginning to consider relevance of May for stocks.
Check out his Saturday blog post:
Silver_Surfer wrote: I believe we will see triple digit silver at some point, but something tells me you're not gonna like my silver chart.
Yes I think so too, in today's dollar price I might add. No you are wrong, I just love your chart Silver_Surfer!
Here is why:
Silver bottomed 1-2years later than gold back in 2001-2003. However the volume was declining now it is almost going parabolic. Back then we didn't have massive QE, trillions of dollars is just sitting there on the sideline ready to be injected into the market, so I've been told, like you all know I am no expert in these areas. Massive inflation will be the result and that is super bullish for silver. Bonds and stocks are also close to a top or already topped.
A multi-decade beautiful Cup&Handle pattern!
The inflow of capital into GDX in 2018, is the largest since 2013.
Silver_Surfer posted his chart on the 10th, 10 the start of a new cycle and I posted my C&H pattern today the 11th, 11 the number of illumination
Just watched a few minutes of Bo Polny at PDAC. Will spare you the link as it is nothing more than fantasy. It must sell or there would not be so many promoters in the sector. There are the usual hype artists in other sectors but for some reason the PM's have more than their fair share.
IBM grew at a compound annual rate of 17 per cent for 40 years. It is the only company to come close to that growth rate for that long but they had a policy of no debt and reinvesting 35 per cent of the profits back into the company. If you had invested when Thomas J Watson first became president you would be wealthy and would have had peace along the way. Gold grew at that rate from 2001 to 2011 and has languished since.
I must say that AM does not provide for one's fantasy but has a more reasoned and pragmatic approach which may not appeal to one looking for the quick buck. Truth does not sell.
this fellows videos have been posted on mainstreet before to good reviews
I think this video will fit nice here and ties into the comments made by Simon Mikhailovich on AtoA this week
argentus maximus wrote: Check out his Saturday blog post: https://studyofcycles.blogspot.ie/2018/03/because-now-you-can-see-it.html
Has anybody who reads DOTs seen a chart recently that looks awfully similar?
Makes you go Ahhh Hah
Something must be causing those elliot waves
Elliott is the boarding point, not the terminus.
This guy makes a good case for the 20%. I'd love to see if his models held up over a longer period of time in history. He also provides some original insights into the workings of the dow/gold ratio and draws some rather compelling conclusions for stackers. Thank you for calling his work to our attention.
I'll use this space to now comment on BoP.
Went to hear Bo at a JS seminar in Austin a few years ago. At that time he was calling for a double bottom and was wrong. Bo made his money as a chiropractor; not trading or investing. That should tell you everything you need to know. He derives his income as a newsletter writer by making bold predictions; purportedly based on ‘secret cycles’ for lack of a better term. I’d venture to speculate that his real time predictions are fairly random. Why or why did JS endorse this guy? Maybe because he was right at one time; and JS ‘wanting to believe’ promoted him. In all honesty I don’t think any mechanical method based on fixed periodicity can work consistently in the short term.
Interesting post. Please give me a heads up as to why you posted it here. More private?
If you look at TFMR podcast March 9th page 4 - I posted almost the same type of chart.
I used this type of logic for trading - no longer trade as I feel we run a real risk of zero sum game type losses
- meaning that even if you win you lose, as all of your capital gets taken from you because of who is on the other side of the trade.
Go Leafs Go
ditto for the Raptors
Similar allocation to Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio: 25% Stocks, Long-term Bonds, Cash, Gold. Although I would not be 25% in bonds today. And stocks look to be topping too.
Hi Thomas, I posted here as this forum is very interested in cycles, timing and trends. This video had popped up in my youtube feed and being familiar with his work I watched. As I was watching I thought that it would fit nicely into the discussion on cycles that happen here. I found it to be not overly technical and his ideas are actionable to one who is in agreement with his ideas. Silver66
silver66 wrote: this fellows videos have been posted on mainstreet before to good reviews ... silver66
Here is a comment I might have posted under that video, but chose not to:
Cycles can invert. Consequently there is an alternative scenario wherein the ratio hits a high in 2022+ and it's still on the way there.
That alt scenario would need to be allowed for via a contingency escape plan, in case it begins to play out.
I used to like cycles - counting them out like (Fibonnaci series) - big problem with that is that you anticipate a bottom or a top, and you do not trade the market that you've got (David Morgan). The other big problem - our markets are totally manipulated, so pretending they are not can get you in trouble. Otherwise effectively 2022 could be a market top - but then I have a really hard time believing that things would not fall apart before then!
What's wrong with "The trend is your friend?"