TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, July 11

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It's not every day that we urge you to listen to the podcast. However, as we struggle to understand the now-obvious correlation between Comex gold and the Chinese yuan, today's discussion is something you need to hear and consider.

We begin by noting that today was the worst day in nearly three years for commodities in general:

So then we try to connect the dots. Maybe we're onto something, maybe we're just chasing ghosts. Either way, I urge you to listen to the discussion, study these charts and give this information your consideration.

Comex silver was also taken to the woodshed today, falling another 1.6% and hanging perilously close to last week's lows:

And finally, after laying out a lengthy case, we close with these two charts. They're no fun to consider but, given all of the extraneous circumstances here in the summer of 2018, a look back at the summer of 2008 seemed appropriate and necessary.

Thanks for listening,

TF

56 Comments

Katie Rose's picture

Jim Willie interview on Deutsche Bank

Joseph Warren's picture

July 11, 1804

Why I have a tradition of toasting  Vice President Aaron Burr today:

https://mises.org/library/founding-father-crony-capitalism

Harley's picture

Good Question about the Miners!

Thanks Craig!

I've been wondering about the very topic of this podcast with the smell of 2008 in the air and commodities being affected first. Good information and certainly worth archiving! 

There was an earlier question as to how to handle the miners, and I second that question. Looking at old charts, everything went down in 2008 and I'll assume it's the same; however, there are more issues at play now, compared to back then, such as the miners already have the sh*t kicked out of most of them already.  What would be some good indicators/measures to look for this time? 

Thanks again Craig, your honesty and good judgment is something hard to find anywhere else!
 

AKA AuAgforever AIJ's picture

Boomer Sooner

You don't have to say sorry for I am not offended. But I have to ask you this: 

Let me ask you one to the point question: 

What is wrong with owning cryptos AND Physical metals? 

I've been on this blog since 2014 and I have NEVER EVER advised crypto over metals. 

I have ALWAYS and I have to say again ALWAYS said own both for diversification. 

Why? Because NOBODY Knows the future. 

...and always in a % that makes sense to the individual. If you don't want to own any then, don't. 

Honestly, I really don't care.   I only think that there might be someone here who does....

...and one more point....I NEVER want to sell my metals.  I would much rather sell my crypto if necessary.....

...and if you are 100% in metals...... then you WILL HAVE TO SELL SOME at some point......

....I could never let any shinny go.....that is what, junk coins, paper dollars, electronic fiat money and cryptos are for.........

mgilbert's picture

KL Options

Craig, are you holing your KL options?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes

MODERATOR

I haven't made any changes to anything just yet.

Response to: KL Options
Turd Ferguson's picture

But be sure to note

MODERATOR

The CNYUSD is now down 0.58% over just the past hour. CDG has yet to react but don't be surprised if it suddenly drops a few bucks and threatens to dip below $1240.

https://m.investing.com/currencies/cny-usd

abundance's picture

Q timelines..July RR out, Aug server content to public

causes the Great Awakening to the public some of whom will

have a very tough time with the info, heads to roll

Sept Indictments unsealed, afraid to walk streets (indictment people)

and more however some anon think the indictments could happen

earlier, July/Aug ...if happens will crashing mkt be used sto distract

or will mkts go up?

below link to Dave, second half of video

and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=Kkf8WTg-GlQ

Erin is new to me..she talks about Dave's timeline and then gold via graphs

stealthbear's picture

So right Ronnie 666

I decided to load up on silver in 2008, but the premium over the spot futures price of $9.00 and change was $6.00. 

billhilly's picture

from ZH...

Thursday, July 12

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 7 (GS 230k, consensus 226k, last 231k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 30 (last 1,739k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged down by 1k to 230k in the week ending July 7, 5k above the prior four-week moving average. We expect the temporary boost from auto plant shutdowns to continue this week. Continuing claims — the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs — have rebounded modestly in recent weeks after a sizeable decline over the previous two months.
  • 08:30 AM CPI (mom), June (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (mom), June (GS +0.19%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (yoy), June (GS +2.97%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%); Core CPI (yoy), June (GS +2.29%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.2%): We estimate a 0.19% increase in June core CPI (mom sa), which would boost the year-over-year rate by one tenth to +2.3%. Our forecast reflects the impact of a tobacco tax in New York City, as well as a modest expected rebound in used car prices. On the negative side, we look for a pullback in the lodging away from home category. We look for a 0.22% increase in headline CPI (mom sa), reflecting an acceleration in the food and energy categories.
  • 08:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel on immigration issues with audience Q&A in Worthington, Minnesota. The event will be webcast.
  • 12:15 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, June (consensus -$80.0bn, last -$146.8bn)
billhilly's picture

Excellent podcast T...

...I second the motion of making it public.

boomer sooner's picture

AIJ

Just ribbing you.

My guess is when the REAL SHF happens, the switch will be flipped and no net, gotta keep everyone in the dark.  No info gives more panic to the masses.  The gates will be closed, for how long, no idea.  Long enough for their savior to be chosen and save us, or so they hope.

At this point, the whole damn thing could blow tomorrow or 20-50 years from now.  The juggler is definitely earning his keep.

Jihk2431's picture

Re: MUX versus KL

You have to look at the grade - it is much cheaper for them to produce an ounce of gold than it is for MUX.  The fact that KL has been so explosive during such a depressing market for gold is telling.  I'm not sure where it goes near term, but I doubt any retracement will be long lasting.  I remain long and strong KL.

AKA AuAgforever AIJ's picture

Boomer Sooner

I know you were just being light hearted. I'm just not not convinced that the power will go out at least not everywhere. Power out everywhere would mean total chaos and then the money will be guns and bullets for then only the well armed and strong survive. The best planning would be to prepare for the 4 most likely scenarios and then you would be covered, hopefully. 

I think the 4 most likely scenarios would be: 

  1. We muddle through with more of the same ( Somewhat likely but hard to imagine ) 
  2. Instead of a default there is a transition into crypto assets  ( I'm leaning towards this one ) 
    1. Stress at most levels but manageable to some degree
  3. There is a default like 2008 but much worse. ( Just might lead to the total collapse below ) 
    1. Society keeps together but with stress at all levels
  4. A collapse and total chaos ( unlikely but real possibility ) 
Ronnie 666's picture

Perth Mint supply

Perth Mint are out of 10 oz and 100 oz Silver bars. Only 1kg bars available in Silver cast bars. Gold supply looks ok except the 2.5 oz cast bars that are out of stock. 

Thomas More's picture

About your podcast

Normally I would read the comments before posting - but I took a day "out"  yesterday going to a Benedictine monastery for the Saint Benoît - getting up for matines which started at 4:40am. A day like that does wonders to your ability to focus and go to the essential. You have the equivalent at Clear Creek in OK for those that would like the experience (masculine).

Like a baseball player - Craig you have thrown a pitch in my wheelhouse. I do not have the time to give it justice - we are all here to help each other by sharing knowledge and (more importantly) experience.

I agree with you podcast:

- that Chinese are using their currency (as is everyone else) in a kind of currency war

- that they want to continue buying gold cheaply - at the same prices

- that stocks are at great danger here like in 2008 - charts to follow

- you did not say it directly - but I must hold a record for the number of times that I have said stock performance and gold performance are linked

What you have not said is that:

- SP/GC ratio is a western central bank "tool" in their tool kit - you know something to keep the system going for a while longer, for the better of a greater number since gold holders are a very small minority - who cares if they complain?

- that maybe the US proposed this idea to the Chinese - that they would cooperate. I mean do you think that the Chinese know more about algos than the NY Fed? Do you really think the Chinese could "Do it alone?" The Chinese have caught the West out in their crooked game - they know that the West doesn't have much gold to sell at lower prices. This is an arm wrestling match - which we have already lost because "our" only concern is to keep the game going. Pay those pensions, keep the lights on at the bank.

So gold may have some suffering to do, and if we are in a 2008 scenario, to which I agree but much, much worse. Then stocks are going to be ....   I don't even want to put my own words in here.

I would like to add that I have chastised myself from breaking with discipline - because I don't trade any more, but have been actively following the thread of things since Feb 2nd. The SP/GC ratio posted below broke the pink line on May 9th - but I felt it was through manipulation so I kept arguing that it didn't matter - and now look where we are at.

I believe like you that we are manipulated - all the markets - all the time, but until this ratio turns lower I cannot think about buying gold, shorting stocks - or even spending too much time watching how things trade. Simply They are still in control. The only thing that differs is in "la manière" - the way or technique that they employ. By the way you are welcome to France Craig - please support our team Sunday.

So I post the current SP/GC ratio, and Gold for 2008 (which I have previously posted). NB that Gold went up three days after Lehman Bros - the arrow points to September 17th, Lehman was taken down on Sunday September 14th. I don't think that Western Central banks can do a repeat of driving gold down to save the system - because they have no gold.

I like this site, but I often ask myself why bother when you only get Craig's hat tip at the end of the day.

streber's picture

Ed Steer Continues Optimistic for PMs Rising

and I agree.
Too much pessimism around here yesterday.
===

"I was somewhat surprised by yesterday's price action, but that changes nothing, except make the COMEX futures market structure in five of the Big 6 commodities even more off-the-charts bullish.  ... the technically inclined Managed Money traders were on the run in most metals yesterday, both precious and industrial alike...none of which had one iota to do with supply and demand.  It was all paper trading -- and when this selling orgy is done with, the ensuing rallies, particularly in the precious metals, "should be one for the record books." 
Of course all commodities will be taken higher, as this will definitely be a rising tide that will lift all boats."
===

Has anyone found a link to China massaging soybeans years ago?

TIA
streber

Angry Chef's picture

Are Trump's Trade Wars Truly Aimed at China and Europe, Or ...

...are they really aimed at Globalists and Central Bankers ?

https://www.roguemoney.net/news/trump-trade-wars-nwo

Interesting take on recent events. Turd and the link between CDG and the CNY gets mentioned as well. 

EKW's picture

China Dumping US Treasuries to buy Gold

China undoubtedly at the top of TPTB confiscation pyramid. And manipulating

gold price as well as other commodities lower in order to accumulate 

physical assets on the cheap with the full support and consent of FRBNY

and Bullion banks can be the only explanation. Planned and choreographed

together the price we see at the end of the day on everything is one big fat

lie. When price is finally reconciled with value, TPTB will either tax the crap

out of the valuable assets or attempt to confiscate. 

But doesn't dumping US Treasuries already priced in US 

dollars negate the premise that the reason US dollar gold becomes 

more expensive for PBOC/SAFE when US dollar rises? The whole idea 

is for China to not buy gold with RMB but with US Dollars already 

owned. 

NUGTCALL's picture

So what about AM and the notion

That the gold was running out. Its all BS AND people with their own selfish agendas. Be careful and believe very little that you read. 

Mickey's picture

CPI

Now at 2.9% last 12 months, 2.2% without food and energy.

health insurance up 0.5% for the year, but the government weighs that at 1.2% of consumer spending. Get the picture?

canary's picture

If gold is tied to yuan now...

And with the trade war, yuan likely staying weak this year...and gold with it. We may get a bounce (due to COT or oversold yuan), but $1400 gold or a breakout this year will be unlikely.

AKA AuAgforever AIJ's picture

Gregory Mannarino wishes "head in the sanders" luck

Gregory Mannarino‏ @GregMannarino

FollowingFollowing @GregMannarino

Now 9.6 Basis point spread between the 10-30. Along with the housing/stock market/debt bubbles and rising inflation this really is getting interesting. When this all corrects so so so many people are going to be financially wiped out. I wish them all luck, they will need it.

Dh6IjedUwAA1cO9.jpg

https://twitter.com/GregMannarino/status/1017400783233417217

Orange's picture

Wow

After listening, I think I need to take a long walk to quiet down.

I think I prefer to think about what happened after the drop in price of PM's in 2008. Looking at that time in the chart is providing hope.

hindsight101's picture

Turd, took your advice - hedged

Reduced risk on this little bounce today...action that should have been taken earlier....With puts, I turned long positions into synthetic calls and plain out reduced metal miners and general equity positions somewhat.

I see trouble ahead and I am sorry to say that I don't see precious metals as a hedge against those problems...The metals and miners bottomed out AFTER the market had crashed in 2008-09 and because the FED came in with monstrous money supply additions. We haven't had the crash nor the reversal or need yet for a FED reversal of policy.

If the Chinese come in with what amounts to another 5% readjustment in their currency, which I think is probable, I want to be in buying mood, not panic.

The worries about tariffs and their impact were extreme yesterday, but will come back when the deadline is at hand....MOST STUPID of Trump's tariff ideas is a tariff on rare earths....that's just plain DUMB.....and I am concerned that with as much bravado as there is for the righteousness of tariffs....I doubt that will be the mood when the costs end up being born, sometime later in the year.

Time to be careful with precious capital. That all being said, I could have held off 30 minutes for better prices.

/very hard to win in the casino.

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