The setup for the big trade

11360 posts / 0 new
Last post
UncleFester
UncleFester's picture
Offline
Joined: 07/13/2011
Hat Tips: 1325
Posts: 328
Update

Looks like a clean break of support.  Unless this is a head-fake, price will likely continue to slide next week.  I will be watching ~1250 and ~1210 as possible buy points.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DAcRhOgi/

__________________

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Gold Chart Update

Just the TA. .....

Now look at those chart.

And be honest. Is there a retest of the 2015 low? No. Then confirmation of that low would have to be by (in the absence of a bullish retest of the low) a super fast and high volume rally.

Can you see such a rally?

If not, can you see a trading range? I put some blue horizontals on the monthly to help.

In the meantime, there is a double top in place following that 2015 low. And ... in the absence of a new high (and we have had plenty of time for one) there is the still remaining option - go find where the realtime bottom of that trading range is now located.

Still bearish-neutral since the 2016 mid year top, and I sure have avoided a tons of angst by getting flat back then. My time to remain bearish is getting short, maybe now to 3 or six months from now. But I try to remember that great song by Florence and The Machine:

And every sovereign wants his bankers bag of of fiat, But I like to keep some assets to myself, I like to keep my positions strong, It's always darkest before the dawn.

Keep strong, conserve assets, believe no media, expect tricks as they get desperate. The signs are all around. They are almost expended. Their great one last stomach churning attempt remains (probably). They can still win. I wait and watch.

And all this BS about yields rising sharply?

Put your cynical hat on and consider this, since when did those information sources get anything right? Is the collective message carriers' projected voice loud enough to ring a bell?

I suspect yields are topping, making first of a couple of highs, and instead will decline to make higher low in 2020.

Watch that support under the gold price.

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

Pete
Pete's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/24/2011
Hat Tips: 3449
Posts: 869
$gold

Well, it finally happened.  The long-anticipated (by me) break of the monthly 0-4 line in $gold came on Friday.  Odds are now very high we witness a decline to either rl or R1 (the classic Babson 0-Y R1 line) in due course.

The 0-y line of the prior monthly wave down, wave A, is a possible target.  The drop would have to be dramatic over the next 3-4 weeks for price to reach the intersection of the new R1 and the old 0-y.  Not saying this is going to happen, but the structure is alerting us to this possibility.  What is fascinating to me is that the intersection value (circled) --about 1149.50 in spot (August) gold-- is virtually identical to the 90% retracement level of wave A!  Per EWave, a 90% retracement of w.A is the minimum for a w.C of an irregular flat (a degree larger W2).  If in fact we are in a wave C of such a W2, we want to be on high alert for a dramatic plunge (as did happen in w.A, remember?) and be prepared to stack significantly.

At the intersection is the highest energy point to stop a precipitous decline.  The 90% condition (if this rule or tendency is to hold) and the "promise" of a turn at R1 leading to a launch higher in W3 are both satisfied at that point, and would be the most bullish setup.  It would point to the B wave top being retested (and most probably exceeded dramatically).

Of course, price could just as well take its sweet time declining.  And, the low could be retested intraday or intraweek, and hold by closes.  

Another thing:  a wave C (or 3 of C) decline ending in 3 weeks would have taken the same time as wave A (23 weeks).  So it can happen. 

Try to stay cool--the next 4 months, astrologically speaking, are full of heat and inflammation.  Mars and Ketu conjunct.  Keep a cool head.  Patience.

Solsson
Solsson's picture
Offline
Joined: 12/14/2013
Hat Tips: 3721
Posts: 922
I've been bullish since 9th

I've been bullish since 9th of Februari and I am still bullish bcos of the signs given to me from the universe yessmiley

the sign given to me today, it felt like a slap in my face lol

oh, it just got even better, look at the clock. This would interest Green Latern I think ...

I've got goosebumps all over my body right now. Scary synchronization.

I've tried over the past month to enlighten some of my colleagues. Scary synchronization below aswell ...

The Mayflower full moon played out pretty well. 

From: Solsson 
Sent: den 28 maj 2018 12:33
To: Kenneth ...
Subject: MayFlower Full Moon

Hallå,

MajblommeFullMåne imorrn (låter bättre på engelska), den 29:e.
Får vi en vändning i Guldmarknaden? Jag bettar 66k svenska pesetas J

33k i Aurania Mining och
33k i Aben Resources

Rapport över utfallet kommer den 23:e Juni!

/S

From: Solsson 
Sent: den 30 maj 2018 12:33
To: Kenneth ...
Cc: Anna ...
Subject: Ready for the next level ... plats 3366

Ojdå, vi ligger på plats:

GetFileAttachment?id=AQMkADAwATIwMTAwAC0

Hmmm I think I recognize the number, see above.

/S

From: Solsson 
Sent: den 3 Juni 2018 11:33
To: Kenneth ...
Cc: Anna ...
Subject: Ready for the next level ... plats 3366

Wow instant success from my bet.

Aurania:

GetFileAttachment?id=AQMkADAwATIwMTAwAC0

Aben

GetFileAttachment?id=AQMkADAwATIwMTAwAC0

/S

Oboma
Oboma's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/01/2011
Hat Tips: 733
Posts: 154
So AM what/where is the next bull market? what sector

So AM what/where is the next bull market? what sector

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
The long swing will be for

The long swing will be for rising yields. After a pullback completes which could take a year or two.

Possibly commodities, but each would have to be considered separately, and not blindly put on long positions, only from strong buying entry points. Yield can enhance short sales and this factor would require to be accommodated. I'm referring to the contango and backwardation overnight rates carry trade there.

Maybe some position on infrastructure decay as the cheap money runs out.

Shorts on municipal dept.

Energy in circumstances whereby sovereign seizure or force can not force it to be sold below production/extraction cost, taxed to breakeven etc.

Tenant agreements in rent controlled housing. (ie shorting the landlord where legislation enacted during coming protests protects the tenant)

production of controlled substances (not drugs - more like eg hardwoods, fish, trade in protected species materials that don't get banned but appreciate due to artificial scarcity)

precious metals as long as they are above carefully calculated stops placed end of this year.

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Cascading up the scales ...

Looking from a price point of view, the drawdown in gold is cascading up the scales.

Expanding momentum is not to be ignored.

Each green price level represents a better value purchasing point than the previous one, provided the opportunity presents. There is an unmarked buying opportunity below level 12.

Usually the latter half of a year is seasonally less than positive for gold, (though seasonals are not extremely strong tendencies) and that also matters in my view.

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

Solsson
Solsson's picture
Offline
Joined: 12/14/2013
Hat Tips: 3721
Posts: 922
Ronnie Fattal is bearish, how

Ronnie Fattal is bearish, how many months has Ronnie been bearish now, 4-5months?

If he remains bearish he will eventually get it right.

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Since you posted the link to

Since you posted the link to Ronnie Fattal, here is a counterpoint link with the same technique.

Lara Iriarte is willing to entertain bullish thoughts of a rally from the 123x levels.

She is more optimistic than myself. Sure it's possible, but let's just say that I would be pleasantly surprised if it went that way. Cycles and EW work together and cycles are harder to get optimistic with just at the moment.

The scenario Lara shows from 11:00 onwards would fit well with intermediate cyclic structure, though she ascribes that outcome a very low probability. We'll soon see how end of first half futures long positions closure rubs up against the usually stronger market makers. I'm expecting weakness .

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Comes OI

CME Group Futures contract open interest summary of heavy business advance bookings:

Gold: Aug, Dec

Silver: July, Sept, Dec

Platinum: July Oct

Palladium: Sept, Dec

Copper: July, Sept, Dec

Also: we are moving towards likely IMF trading activity peak periods during the coming 6 months.

These are parties who espouse public bearish profiles (which publicity has nothing to do with their private stance on the assets in question unless maybe in contra form).

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

kentucky
kentucky's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/20/2011
Hat Tips: 306
Posts: 99
Bears

From reading different message boards on gold as well as gold websites there is a lot of bullish sentiment.  Everyone looking for a bottom.  There is very little howling or pain that is typical of a bottom.  A move back down to point 12 would cause some real pain.  It would be brutal.  Lara does not think it likely but she has not been around the gold market for very long.  JMHO

__________________

kentucky

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Support levels #5 and #6 went

Support levels #5 and #6 went into the red today basis weekly continuation Comex.

Up another couple of fractals we go, unless these are regained promptly and we get back into the smaller scale of price swing.

I didn't do it on eg December gold yet. This is the scenario I've been writing about for many years (since the start of this forum and the confirming price move in 2013) finally arriving onto the charts and into reality day by day.

A tick or two through in this visual drawing - I expect it's exactly on the line in the main delivery month contract to maximize doubt.

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

Solsson
Solsson's picture
Offline
Joined: 12/14/2013
Hat Tips: 3721
Posts: 922
Happy Summer

Happy Summer SOLstice!

Tomorrow is ...

UncleFester
UncleFester's picture
Offline
Joined: 07/13/2011
Hat Tips: 1325
Posts: 328
Update

In case anyone was wondering where I got my numbers from in the post above...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/m9GWtYN2/

Interestingly, price has bounced at every level except 1300 and 1175!

__________________

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
Interesting thoughts from Joseph Farrell

Interesting thoughts from Joseph Farrell about rare earth metals and the Eurasian front of the ongoing global resource war:

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

eclectic
eclectic's picture
Offline
Joined: 05/03/2013
Hat Tips: 903
Posts: 304
GOLD BELOW 800?

https://twitter.com/henrikzeberg?lang=en

argentus maximus
argentus maximus's picture
Offline
Joined: 01/20/2013
Hat Tips: 24250
Posts: 3498
The trends that matter for

The trends that matter for The Big Trade.

GCXXXX weekly

While VAP is not here, nor harmonic projections, nor short term time, and horizontals are removed for clarity. AND THESE MATTER, everything else that matters to a strong degree is shown, and everything required to see it has been discussed in this forum.

Seeing expertise ain't easy nor common. I wonder how many readers will give this one eg five minutes? I could give it an hour or more so easily and have no problem with giving tactual he reasons why. Every single component of this chart has been carefully constructed and scaled. It's not a representation of day to day commentary of what has happened. I hope everyone who has put the time in over the months/years gets it eventually after the tine of scrutiny required on individual basis.

It's pretty much all here though right now. Subs get a full explanation by video following today's vid. But unintentionally it's also a great test of how far you've got in this game.

I will provide realtime commentary here in Setup as things work out, or don't, as I always do.

__________________

argentus maximus
Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

silver66
silver66's picture
Offline
Joined: 10/08/2012
Hat Tips: 15401
Posts: 2549
trends that matter

AM this article may be appropriate for your post

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-22/gold-joins-global-death-cross-procession

silver66

__________________

Silver66
Rage against the dying of the light

silver66
silver66's picture
Offline
Joined: 10/08/2012
Hat Tips: 15401
Posts: 2549
Joseph F and REE

ZH picked up on this story

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-22/sexy-metal-missing-element-korean-puzzle

silver66

__________________

Silver66
Rage against the dying of the light

kentucky
kentucky's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/20/2011
Hat Tips: 306
Posts: 99
Time

It looks like things are falling into place.  Usually a change at solstice.

__________________

kentucky

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Syndicate contentComments for "The setup for the big trade"