A Visit with Denver Dave

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Our old pal, Dave Kranzler, stopped by earlier today for a brief discussion of global market risks (including Deutschebank) and the gold "market" (including EFPs and PNTs).

Again, please be sure to check out Dave's site, www.investmentresearchdynamics.com. There you'll find all sorts of free reports but also information on his two subscription services, the "Mining Stock Journal" and the "Short Sellers Journal".

Dave and I only had a limited amount of time today so this discussion is short and on point. Please be sure to carve out some time to give it a listen.

TF


50 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

RIP Charles Krauthammer

MODERATOR
SteveW's picture

A story nearing its conclusion?

In 2011 the University of Texas Investment Management Company put about 5% of its endowed funds into gold. Kyle Bass was on the board and carefully evaluated their billion dollar COMEX purchase. They took delivery and stored the bullion with HSBC in New York. "Bass explained that the cost of rolling futures contracts equated to around 90 basis points (0.9%) a year "For a lot less than 90 basis points a year we store it, insure it and we own it." "

The Texas Bullion depository was opened at the beginning of this year for individuals BUT they are building another depository for institutions such as U Texas, that is slated for completion in December.

Now:

1. They need a second vault because there has been such a huge run from Texans to store their gold in the completed depository.

2. HSBC told Texas to build an institutional grade depository since it could not release the gold to one used by individuals because of the security risk or some other problem.

December 2018 is eagerly awaited to learn the fate of these 6643 gold bars.

billhilly's picture

from ZH...

Friday, June 22

  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, June preliminary (consensus 56.3, last 56.4)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, June preliminary (consensus 56.7, last 56.8)
Chancey's picture

Daraa

From what I have read in various places, Syria is about to start an offensive on rebel held Daraa. They have their 'Tiger' forces and tanks ready. 

The US said it will take measures if action is taken in Daraa. Evidently it is in or near a 'deconfliction zone.'

Jordan has moved tanks to the border near the area.

And Israel is not happy about this either. Near Golan Heights.

Maybe this will just be a face off or maybe it turns into a mess. At any rate, good to keep eyes on it.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Daraa?src=hash

streber's picture

lol

"Almost enough to make a person want to quit filling their little noggin with fairy tales ain't it?"

streber's picture

News release just out from one of my services:

.

===

June 22, 2018

For immediate release.

This press release contains absolutely no news whatsoever! 
It is completely devoid of any news or meaning.

Even if it did contain news, data or statistics, they would all be made up lies, propaganda and false numbers.

Thanks for your attention.
End.

Thomas More's picture

Something's happenin here, what it is ain't exactly clear

Due to great demand - by guys phoning me and begging me to post the SP/GC ratio, here it is.

The propping up of the Stock market, Denver Dave just said it. Normally we "should have" turned around already - but we haven't.

Gotta keep the illusion alive

Markedtofuture's picture

Italy & Refugee Crisis

Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Refugee Crisis in Europe is tearing it apart and all of this began with a unilateral decision by Merkel when her polls declined because of her tough policy on Greece. The refusal to compensate Italy and to demand they take in refugees but denies them the right to send them north proves the very point that I have been getting from Italy behind the curtain – they feel they are an occupied country.

Italy said it will seize two migrant rescue ships in the Mediterranean, as this refugee policy of the EU continues to worsen. We are up against politicians in Brussels and Germany who simply refuse to admit that they made serious mistakes. They fear that admitting that will ruin their personal careers so the entire European Union must suffer. Now the two German NGO ships carrying refugees who are really economic migrants looking for a free lunch “will be seized” to determine their legal status according to Italy.

The response from Italy comes on the heels of the insensitive remarks of French President Emmanuel Macron who called this the “leprosy” of anti-EU feeling, which is only angering the Italian populist government and the people. This is where this feeling that is related to me is building that they have NO SAY in the fate of their own country and they have simply become an occupied country as if they lost the war and Germany won.

Italy sparked the fresh round of discontent earlier this month when it refused to take in the Aquarius rescue ship, which was carrying 630 migrants rescued off the North African. Malta also refused to accept the ship and so it went off to Spain. If Spain refuses, Greece, and Portugal, then perhaps the ships will go beyond the Pillars of Hercules and sail to France and Belgium so Brussels can be inundated itself. Perhaps then the policy will change.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/italy-refugee-crisis/

Germany Has Made Over 3 Billion Profit From Greece's Crisis Since 2010

“Contrary to all right-wing myths, Germany has benefited massively from the crisis in Greece,”

Markedtofuture's picture

Former Secret Service Agent Files RICO Suit

Former Secret Service Agent Files RICO Suit Against Clintons, Soros, Podesta, Brock

Conspiracy theorists (and conspiracy factists) are running wild as infamously outspoken former Secret Service agent Gary Byrne has filed a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) suit against what some call the Democrat Deep State.

silver66's picture

re OZY

ss121 I think this has been your best post to date

simple and explains your thesis

silver66

Blythesshrink's picture

https://dailyreckoning.com/a-

https://dailyreckoning.com/a-new-global-debt-crisis-has-begun/

Jim Rickards - IMF will print trillions of SDR to bail out emerging markets.

If I follow that through to its conclusion - those SDRs are worth ~ 1.4USDs and will be used to pay back USD lenders. USD lenders will not be able to immediately loan the currency back out to the emerging markets due to the recent crisis - so the currency will get loaned out in the West - which means big inflation.

Anyone see a problem with the logic - anything I'm missing? Will the IMF demand gold as collateral for these bailouts? How will gold perform during an EM crisis?

Also, from what he's written,

" Once that happens, even the stronger countries such as China lose reserves rapidly and end up in default. In a worst case, a full-scale global liquidity crisis commences, this time worse than 2008. "

Can China not reveal its true gold reserves instead and force a gold revaluation instead of ending up in default?? Looks like we'll find out over the next 24 months.

petedivine's picture

SDR payment for Dollar denominated debt

There are a couple of questions I would raise.

1. Who accepts SDRs for Dollar denominated debt? You’d have to convert the SDR to Dollars. Another entity with a U.S. derivative printing press?

2. Even if you reliquify sovereign debt markets what about conglomerates in the third world that borrowed in Dollars? Wouldn’t they still default? To me this is the bigger concern. Companies are productive enterprises within an economy, whereas governments are net consumers. Bailing out bad government policy while letting productive enterprises collapse only creates a larger imbalance.

Certainly is a messy situation but I’m not so sure the IMF will be in a position to help. Mr. Rickards has been discussing the role of SDRs for quite some time. However, the SDR isn’t really used in the real world. I did a quick google search and there was only 204 Billion SDRs created. IMO the big banks do this rinse and repeat to the third world every decade or so. They make cheap debt available to a struggling economy, then raise interest rates and the value of the Dollar making the debt more expensive. Next step harvest the host nation. Nothing will stop the cycle from repeating. 

Poundwize's picture

GORO

Good heads up on GORO, Silver10s. That's a beautiful chart. I think we might start seeing some buyouts again.

Oh ... and FED! (as in Federer)

SS121's picture

The SDR IS nothing more than USDs in an envelope labelled SDR

From IMF.org

The Board also decided at that time that the weights of each currency would be 41.73 percent for the U.S. dollar, 30.93 percent for the Euro, 10.92 percent for the Chinese yuan, 8.33 percent for the Japanese yen, and 8.09 percent for the Pound sterling.

The SDR is nothing more than USDs and 4 other USD denominated currencies (that are wholely valued per their USD valuation only).   SDR=USDs  ...of varying currencies and amounts which serves no practical purpose other than to provide the context of confusion whereby the bros.' USD hate narrative can launch endless stories about what this or that SDR action might or might not mean, etc etc etc...

The SDR, yes the whole thing is silly.  And meaningless, but contrary to IMF internal rules anybody can have an SDR, and use it however they please!.

Here's How-

  1. Go get an envelope and stuff $100.00 worth of currency as per the percentages above into said envelope. 
  2. Then lick or peel and stick the envelope closed. 
  3. Then take any colored Sharpie marker and write "SDR" in big letters on both sides of the envelope, and ...
  4. Congratulations you now have an SDR.

"You mean that's all it is!?!?!?"  yep, that's it. 

The IMF calls the SDR a supplementary international reserve asset.   Now why do you suppose they would want to detract from the reality that the SDR is nothing more than USDs??   . . .

  • Federal Reserve . . not Federal
  • Wall St. "silver" not metal
  • USDX not a moving USD index
  • No evidence that CoT reports are causative, correlative or even connected in any way to the price displayed on the silver chart.

not my fault, just how it is

Blythesshrink's picture

" 1. Who accepts SDRs for

" 1. Who accepts SDRs for Dollar denominated debt? You’d have to convert the SDR to Dollars. Another entity with a U.S. derivative printing press? "

Great question - that reminds me of what Rickards wrote in one of his books - basically China will be quite happy to take SDR and exchange it for USD from its currency reserves - however their USD reserves are limited to a few trillion.

AGAU's picture

country savvy

A country gal was milking her cow by the barn when a "towny" stops by and asks her the time . she cups the cows udder, lifts it a few times , like she was weighing it and says its "its ten o'clock"

The towny was amazed and asked her how she can tell the time that way

"Oh its easy"  she said "when I lifts the cows tit  -  I can see the village clock over the way there

Further down the road "towny"   is looking for the village pub and spots a country boy and his gal enjoying the sun in a haystack  he calls him and says " Excuse me - how far is the Old Cock Inn"

to which the country boy happily replies 

"oh -  all the way up to the nuts mate"

Jeeze it must be boring ass slow today  huh!

zenharmonics's picture

Speaking of something wicked this way comes

The CME and LBMA figures don't tie out so well.    Dave once said the good stuff is in the footnotes.   Check out yesterdays release of the OCC derivatives report.   If the maturity is 14 days or less, it doesn't get reported.   There seems to be some nefarious activities in those 14 days of off-record activity.    Glad you guys discussed.  

The EFP situation is getting more bizarre by the day and week. Here is what Harvey Organ put out over the weekend…

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A RECORD SIZED 27,009 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS , AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 27009 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 476,705. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

Markedtofuture's picture

30 Years of Global Warming Forecasts all Failed

Posted Jun 24, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Wall Street Journal just published a review of the Global Warming Forecasts for the past 30 years. They have not even come close to the scenarios they put forth back in 1988. On June 23, 1988, the then NASA scientist James E. Hansen who helped to start all this nonsense testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. He stated that he expressed had a “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the claimed CO2 induced “greenhouse effect and observed warming.” That is how government characterizes something when they are guessing – “high degree of confidence” which was the same words used to invade Iraq who had weapons of mass destruction. He later came out and said: “Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.” (August 25, 2002). The CIA Director testified before Congress and said: “We said in the estimate with high confidence that Iraq had them.” see Transcript Washington Post).

Here is Hansen’s forecast. The dark red overlay is actual surface temperatures reported and there is even a controversy surrounding them that they have been constantly skewed higher to not look like complete idiots.  Even the models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are at least twice the actual temperature by now even with fudged numbers. So why are all these model so exaggerated?

These models are completely VOID of cyclical models and they do not even understand that this is a cycle. They are constructed with same idiotic bases that whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. The Dow Jones Industrials closed 1932 at 60.26 and 1933 at 98.67. That was a 63.7% gain year over year. By assuming that trend will remain in motion, which was his dire forecast, the Dow would have reach 96,433,885,025.00 by 1975. That makes 50,000 look cheap.

Even averaging a 5-year advance VOID of understanding cycles, fails to provide a valid forecast ever. If I take the closing in the Dow of 2009 and the closing of 2014, the average advance was 1479 points per year. Now take the 2014 closing of 17823.07, that gives me 25,218.09. That is fine because we have been in a bull market. We all know the cycle will change. That is what is wrong with the global warming forecasts.

What actually happened, they got $1 billion for research by scaring the HELL out of everyone. I wonder kind of chart I should make to get $1 billion handed to me from Congress with no performance requirements. What a deal.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/30-years-of-global-warming-forecasts-all-failed/

Katie Rose's picture

Libero

Whenever someone verbally assaults someone as you did Jim earlier in the thread, it shows more about your heart than it does about Jim's.

Why can't we just be kind to one another?

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