The setup for the big trade

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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:
...there is this aspect: the bottom for stocks in the 1970s decade was one year before Star Wars came out, in 1976. How many years ago was that again?

I need to correct this, since I was using memory and should have referred to the chart before posting.

The 1970s low for S&P500 was October 1974, lets say Q4 1974. Not 1976 as I erroneously typed above.

So end-ish of 1974

- 42 years =  1932 a great low

+ 42 years = late 2016 not so significant to look at thus far

This proposes the possibility of a cycle high or low end-ish 2016, let's put that as 2016-2017.

And that may be a top, or a bottom, or a breakout.

The trading interpretation is simple. Exercise care at this time. Bullish above the prices obtaining at or about 2017, bearish while under that level. Presently the S&P is above the price level indicated.

So what does this period in the SPX look like?

During late 2016 - early 2017, there are two breakouts visible. That's bullish indicating fresh money entering the market. However it also plants a stamp on the chart that we can appraise and say to ourselves: if price gets below those levels, then all that fresh money (or the parties that bought SPX off the fresh money entity)  is on the wrong side and must sell to get out.

In other words, if SPX gets below there, this will get worse very quickly. If it doesn't then distribution will continue for a while more before the next big thing, which could be the turn below support, or could be accelleration to insane levels.  The central bankers can only QE or QT (taper off the inflation). And if the SPX got back to these levels, the levels would probably be defended vigorously, so it can be a criteria for considering that a pullback is over or preparing to expand to a higher scale of pullback..

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Sentiment change diary next entry ...

West coast billionaire darling of the left Elon Musk makes a mistake, gives the "wrong virtue signal" - now being lined up for rebranding as "Alt-Right" by SJW shark attack frenzy dog whistling coordinator journalists.

(I try to get a feel for the background of people whom this matter is bringing together. (wave 3 neo-feminist authors have fascinating social linkages in their pasts for example)

Anyway - the video:

This will go a certain distance before it gets defused by upper left elements - watch that being done if I'm right on it - and set up a fresh cascade of changes in perceptions.

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Dow Cycle

One rather big cycle of which I habitually revise its progress:

I showed it both "normal" and inverse.

It's more about the inflections than the forecasted direction. There are large inversions visible, but at non random times.

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Solo Star Wars movie opening weekend disaster

Long wave turns can be a bitch.

There will be some investing-entertainment value from reading leftist (almost all of them)media, in particular SJW media, for all their reasons for this collapse of a multi billion dollar business, all the reasons but the real ones.

Now Lucas films are under serious pressure to avoid the next main Star wars movie being the tombstone on the grave of the Star Wars franchise. Series fatigue is so easy to use as a face saving excuse instead of acknowledging that wave 3 neo-feminist progressivism is actually the problem.

So ... is the top in on Starwars, or will the next (main Star Wars storyline) movie be "it"? And is this a coincident indicator for the stock market 40+ year upswing from the 1970s stagflationary trading range bottom? The cycles don't match exactly, but they are very close. The bond market wave is slightly different too. So this can turn into timeframe convergence which would cascade event up a fractal scale or to, or three. That's how surprises arrive.

We can't be sure about these things, but we can see signs of problems and watch carefully for changes.

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argentus maximus wrote: West

argentus maximus wrote:

West coast billionaire darling of the left Elon Musk makes a mistake, gives the "wrong virtue signal" - now being lined up for rebranding as "Alt-Right" by SJW shark attack frenzy dog whistling coordinator journalists.

So Rex Tillerson, the Exxon guy, was kicked out of Trumps cabinet. Now Elon Musk gets "pushed into" Trumps camp, sounds like deals have been made. Renewables VS Fossil fuels 1-0

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Silver_Surfer wrote:So Rex

Silver_Surfer wrote:
So Rex Tillerson, the Exxon guy, was kicked out of Trumps cabinet. Now Elon Musk gets "pushed into" Trumps camp, sounds like deals have been made. Renewables VS Fossil fuels 1-0

Well said Silver_Surfer.

It is a possible snapshot of the current state of that characterization of the (competing energy sub factions within the primary) globalization factions.

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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Silver_Surfer wrote:
So Rex Tillerson, the Exxon guy, was kicked out of Trumps cabinet. Now Elon Musk gets "pushed into" Trumps camp, sounds like deals have been made. Renewables VS Fossil fuels 1-0

Well said Silver_Surfer.

It is a possible snapshot of the current state of that characterization of the (competing energy sub factions within the primary) globalization factions.

I am adding to my uranium position on a quarterly basis. The question is if nuCLEAR power is considered as a re-newable or a fossil(dirty) fuel? I am positive to  nuclear power. My dad worked in a nuclear power plant for 20years, so the fission reaction put food on our table so to speak.

Ok, May Flower Full Moon today yes do we get a turn in markets?

time to plant your seeds ...

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Hi in the DOTS... forum today

Hi

in the DOTS... forum today we had a conversation about ideas, memes, mind manipulation, information, and it got into climate and other areas.

I just put up a monster post over there which would be off topic if I copied it here. And yet there is much in it that goes to the problem of preservation of mind that is the massive problem traders and investors must face and overcome if they are to make money.

So here's a link. If it's not to your taste sorry to waste your time. It IS long, which is why I am making reference here! If it is relevant to you, enjoy with my compliments!

#22327

AM

PS the hedge fund sponsor was Paul Tudor Jones

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Pan-sectoral Sentiment change continued ....

Movies are mainstream, but the anti SJW-Starwars sci fi geek rebellion is a fringe movement expanding into mainstream against media opposition and the usual mainstream media vilification. But they're not backing down and normies keep on hearing their voice no matter what Disney and Marvel do to avoid that.

In my charts that's called cascading up a fractal.

Would progressive education be more mainstream?

Watch this and figure it out for yourself if the official excuses sound genuine (eg tourist guides leaving out certain parts of Evergreen for some strange reason) or not:

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Reminder today's RNP Webinar

Reminder to those who are planning to attend:

The RNP webinar will be later today today 4 June  21:00 ​GMT / 16:00 EDT / 14:00 MDT / 13:00 PDT​. ​ For EU residents 22:00 CET​.

If you are supposed to have received login details and have not got them by now, drop me an email or phone call.

I should be able to accommodate non RNP-ers up to an hour before the online meeting begins, to get a last minute registration set up. The special just for today offer is €20 for the webinar and that's also including the month following of everything else I come up with.

As usual I'll bring some of the ideas to the Setup here. but the work through leading to conclusions, connectivity between everything, criteria for confirming success or confirming abort to alternative scenarios, the speculations and doubts about geopolitics, power exchanges,  and global money flow is too much for here except in so far as I include all this into each and every post I make here at Setup For The Big Trade.

So a few interesting charts will be available in the morning, but I won't know what they are until somebody asks me a question tonight and I work up an answer there and then.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Meanwhile .....

Have you connected that as sentiment change about movies and SJW-ism goes inexorably into the mainstream, that at the same time sentiment in precious metals is falling gradually? Cycles are phase locked though they are in different things! Bear victory is where bulls spring from. Of if you prefer range trader speak ... low prices spawn buying.

The action of the elites is bad for gold. Their reaction to events is what gold depends upon. Events like Merkel being publicly criticized in the German parliament and walking out to save face. Or Slovenia joining the deplorables who don't like Eu "destroy your national identity for us" orders.   Tick tock. Lots of fat cat jobs are going to be soon on the line.

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No Interest

Am wrote.

So a few interesting charts will be available in the morning, but I won't know what they are until somebody asks me a question tonight and I work up an answer there and then

So no one asked any questions?  

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I got a good one. Worked out

I got a good one. Worked out the answer and that was a big surprise. A chart to summarize salient points is on the way. But I haven't had a minute to spare for ages it seems.

The webinar went for 2 3/4 hours before we wound it up. That was a lot of talk, and I spent yesterday and today working up follow up materials for those who subscribed and could not attend, as well as those who did. So I've had my head down working hard - and very long hours - for the whole week.

Here is a nugget. I proposed a ten year bear market for stocks. Demonstrated how it might proceed, and how it could get under way without gaining much notice. That should stand out from the crowd. Wave 1 down for 2-3 years from the present 12 month period exact turn depending on which asset.

Another: I showed a big bank and suggested we are almost ready for a sharp decline, possibly to challenge all time lows eventually, and it wasn't DB.

Came up with a sort of war index which has this year on it.

And: Eight years from 2018 will be important. Long term diaries required.

I'll select a couple of charts and bring them to readers here during the weekend.

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War cycles

At the RNP webinar there was a  lot about war cycles, and how they match surprisingly closely on a life and death basis with the personal and individual at leadership levels of society. That war index I described above which has around now on it - it's not your average war cycle, it counts various flags that initiate skirmishes and wars rather than wars themselves. Due to the secrecy of military planning and manoeuvers, often using misinformation until after they are launched, there is a surprise element to financial planning at such times, and I am therefore talking about new investment paradigms coming suddenly out of nowhere.

Such unexpectedness would confound all except those "already in the know" prior to such events. majority wrong, minority right: that is a profitable opportunity too juicy for greedy egos to pass by.

Remember all the arrests for insider trading prior to 911? Were there any?  Right! Did anybody in power get rooted out since? So if the answer is still no, then same people are in place, or their appointed successors and so a similar expectations for the future events becomes reasonable.

Here is a YT link to ponder a little on:

It's looking around and looking back, and I am looking forward, but I'm sure you get my drift.

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23...33...66 This is actually

23...33...66

This is actually related to my latest post in DOTS ...

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The pregnant pause?

I am still waiting at $1290...I see no strong signs for a move up or down.

I think a great revelation is still rippling through the world, as people begin to realize that globalism was nothing but a siren song for their own country's sovereignty.  And how many of their self-annointed leaders have made fortunes selling out their fellow countrymen. The spirit of Liberty stirs.  Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Slovenia, Greece, Italy, Brexit, Trump. 

Love him or hate him, but at least agree that Trump is a Magnificent Bastard!  Thought most of you would enjoy this article. https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2018/06/when-trump-met-fibonacci-and-won/

I'm not German, but is that schadenfreude?

PS.  The Swiss voted down the referendum on sovereign money yesterday, so they will keep their fiat for now.

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There are only a few people

There are only a few people in the world I look up regularly for interviews.

Paul Tudor Jones is one of those people.

Here he is two days ago.

Watch, enjoy, pay attention.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/12/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-paul-tudor-jones.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EDIT:

I see that ZH did a writeup of this interview here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-12/paul-tudor-jones-1987-closest-analogy-where-we-are-now

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It goes even more mainstream ....

Gamergate was geeks, they had identity, cameraderie, self pride, confidence, are quick of thought, and gamers refused to kowtow to SJW feminization of their games. When the feminized media accused them publicly and repeatedly of being racist, misopgynist, nazi, alt-right, far-right, homophobe, anti-rainbow rights, etc the gamers stood their ground. that was something not seen for a long time in western society. Gamers dug in, resisted, and the SJWs backed off but never went away.

The SJWs are currently nibbling at management of game producing corporations, hijacking conventions, and influencing reviews. Their media still gives them unjustified positive coverage and never reports on their exposed dirty tactics.

Comics got it next. The battle continues. it appears that certain extreme minority "gender" people have consolidated within te writing and comic making industry, and are gatekeeping any "normal" writers, artists, etc from entry to the big time comic marques. this ios not done, The media aid the SJWs and repeat accusations against fans as if they are truths. This biased media pass-trade-publish articles containing a pro-comicpro narrative around each other, trying to drown out dissenting voices, and discredit them at the same time.. The culture war continues there.

Comics make super heroes, and movies use super hero characters in their products so the next stage is inevitable.

Star Wars The last Jedi/Solo "Soylo-gate" went down in flames.  The SW fans are predominantly male and white - the attack from social-justice-hollywood: " it's those misogynist bad straight white males that are the problem for daring to complain about social justice insertions into our perfect movies".  You see they are the top tier of their own SJW world and they get to allocate personal blame in return for objective criticism.

And so the SW franchise bombing simmers on with accusations towards the fans for being uncouth etc. and the fans not backing down.

And now we arrive at this:

So what next?

This is a crime drama, redone with an all female cast. Crime dramas are totally mainstream. Who can be blamed now? It's obvious that a good all female version of Ocean series could have been made, if they wanted to focus primarily on making a good movie instead of having  diverse self-competing aims.

Somebody (it won't be the neo-feminized media this early in the game but they already see the winds of change blowing and you can detect it in their increasingly desperate SJW writing) has to recognize that a substantial percentage of women are not interested in all female casts (or any other combination), unless those characters are entertaining.

Reading Rotten Tomatoes, and contrasting Pro reviews with audience reviews,  there seems to be a conclusion among audience critics that edginess, uncertainty (caused by a possible double cross within the gamg)  and humour is missing. Well sure - that might have offended somebody if it had been "included" in such an inclusionary movie. "No can do, you deplorable straight females! And don't you dare complain about our diversity hire movie making team members who are all perfect!" "You are part of the patriarchy so shut up" . Something like that will inevitably be the aggressive reply.  So what will the normie or middle of the road women do then?

On  Oceans 8 - there is no crime drama "clique" or "fandom base" that I'm aware of. So where will complaints about this latest fiasco be published? Who can aggrieved viewers who watched talented actresses work as best they could with a dud script under dud SJW  production? This will be interesting to see. How a special interest led critical movement expands and moves into mainstream discussion, or fails to.

It also appears SJWs have become so extreme of viewpoint that SJWs now can't write or make good movies.

And after Weinstein, Metoo, et al, nobody is on the mood to allow themselves to be lectured by celebrities about how to live. As for abusive priests before them, the credibility of Hollywood has evaporated. (this will be ringing alarm bells in agencies who use hollywood to promulgate messaging but they are substantially moved into online media by now anyway)

There is a new social trend building here and it has not paused. It actually is a counter trend at this stage, but it's early days still.

Social mood, is sentiment, readers. And it's not sentiment that drives the value of financial assets, it's sentiment change. Ex-bulls getting out of the old and repositioning by buying the new is the change, and is the price driver.

This should be getting significant enough that large budget web scraping bots are monitoring it by now. Intervention becomes possible at such a stage. Complexity adds as the protest group enlarges.

Watch and enjoy the sentiment change show. It's far better than the SJW-ized games and movies causing it.

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Swiss Debt Money Referendum Follow up

Here is a summary of the CH referendum on validity of debt money issued by commercial banks:

The number in favour of the sound money initiative was 24.3% of those who voted.

24.3 x 1.618 = 39.31.

On a related note, EW users will be familiar with this:

23.6 x 1.618 = 38.2

24.3 - 23.6 = 0.7%

So only 7 in 1000 of the voters deviated from a perfect minor scale Fibonacci split on this matter.

Real change is a counter swing away from accelleration towards becoming reality.

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PTJ

Am I the only one who saw this interview as a shameless self promotion?  Another ETF for the paper loving crowd which

further enable the manipulation.  Back in the day PTJ provided a useful insight as to how the EWT was useful for picking

turning points.  My, my haven't things changed.  Another sellout to the establishment?

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The second half - about the

The second half - about the new ETF - was.

The rest, his thoughts about the second half of this year, that's what I was paying attention to. He is already positioned for any situation he talks about. Probably long volatility.

You know he used EW? I can't speak for now. Search for his name and "Trader" and select video results.

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