Here's my count in hourly Au, slightly different than your extended wave 5. I appreciate the chart and candid discussion. One has to be careful not to trust their count too much and project their belief onto the market. Have to be flexible to catch the next wave. And patient...not just any old wave will do.
For the 60m chart of Dec Gold:
After p3 was made (at the 23.6R level of the rally from July 10 low), price zoomed the new ml from p1 and "ran across the channel" where the new uh x 38%R fib halted the decline. Price declined in a small abc to p5 (making a m3 pivot that failed to reach the new ml (not drawn) from p2). Price rallied back to the old uh where p4 had been made, also failing its ml from p3. Then, a 60m reversal bar (RB) signaled a short sale.
If the risk were too high at the time of the hourly close, price rallied back to the uh on either the 60m chart or the 15m chart (to 1338.1), giving another entry chance as so often happens. A limit sale just before the uh at 1338.0 or 1337.9 would have been easily filled, giving a risk beyond the p6 top of 1.2-1.3 points.
The main feature of the chart is the double ml failure makes the important shakeout price pattern (named by Andrews), where a sharp move in the initial direction of the first failed ml is expected, and the onset is signalled with a close beyond the new mlh (which occurred at the time of the RB). Price did in fact reach the initially failed ml from p2, but this does not always happen.
This was sharp move lower that put the RSI for the 5m and 15m charts much below 20. My preference is to take a partial profit if the 5m is very oversold; and in this case the "G7" signal was the exit trigger. When the tops of the 5m bars are not exceeded for at least 7 consecutive bars AND RSI is at very low levels (<20), I cover on a stop limit one tick above the lowest bar. This give a good exit and nice profit. Note the RSI in this example.
The immediate new target for price is the new m3 60m ml (in red). With the new low and weak recovery from 1325, I expect a challenge of today's low in the next session. The 60m mls are sloping down. Watch the price action at/near the Major ML from the July low (thick black). It may halt the decline; or a sliding parallel to it lower, from prior pivot lows. Otherwise, the prior py and breakout near 1307 remains an important target.
The red ml in the prior post was drawn assuming today's low would become a m3 60m pivot (i.e. enough time to the upside would ensue, reaching 1329.1 at a minimum, before price went lower). So far that hasn't happened, and a new low might occur before a m3 pivot up occurs. In that case, a different ml would be drawn.
That 1318ish support I posted before with more resolution. 1317 at about noon tomorrow.
in 60m gold per this chart. I'd wait for an upside zoom, or an entry that costs less than 2 pts (preferably both) to bet on an upside move.
The form is good.
The red mlh was drawn at the start of the triangle, yet touched the current low exactly. So the m3 60m ml is the same. I've seen this before but can't recall what/where. Maybe the market thought that a m2 pivot was good enough. After all, we had a nice triangle for a w4 with the classic swift w.5 drop into nice lines--including the Major ML from the July low and the wl#1 of the iml on the 60m chart (the only iml available).
Uncle, I'll check your chart later. Right now, some British TV is what the doctor ordered.
I have som dry powder in my coffin (21%). Buying back some of my 21 miners at the 21st of September. I am inline with my lucky Fib number 21 as an old Black Jack player.
I like your EW-count Uncle Fester, I borrowed one of your charts:
How about a low in Gold at another Fib number of 13 (x 100) a big round number, at or around the 21st of September. All this is aligned with a touch of a major supportline and an EW a-b-c count at a G-V peak day.
That's my short term roadmap.
This is an idea that the heavy planet most closely aspecting the Sun at the time of a solar eclipse becomes a key planet to watch until the next eclipse. I think the unfolding aspects to that planet mark important days for changes in trend. I don't think the moon transits are involved. Anyone here know more about it?
(I don't know if this concept applies to lunar eclipses also.)
Uranus was in close trine to the eclipse. The first planet to aspect Uranus will be Venus, who is returning to the same position as the Sun (trine) on Sunday-Monday, Sep 17/18.
Let's see if Monday marks a low or high pivot in gold/silver.
I'm waiting for price to break out above this dotted line for confirmation of the pivot.
I am constantly surprised how many investors have not read Charles Mackay's book. It is possibly impossible to understand crowd psychology, AND THE EXTREMES TO WHICH IT CAN GO before reading this book.
Here are audio links to Book 1:
Those have an extremely lengthy playtime.
If you prefer to limit your focus to the great econonic madness episodes, these are shorter links:
But really, there is no substitute for the book. Books enable page and chapter flipping in a way both pdfs and audio versions impede. You can read about tulipomania, and next read about the witchcraft burnings of the middle ages, and then see in what ways they were exactly the same. With the paper book you can clip a page with fingers of one hand and flip to compare with another page, eg the to contrast the same stage (in the process of the bubble) of tulipomania and mississippi bubble. This is something that digital media has not achieved adequately so far.
I myself have this book in two paper copies, one full, the other the abridged (economic) Harriman House edition, and in pdf, and also in audio. This book is that important.
The big event of the day was the BLS release at 8:30 ET. The trading is typically very volatile at the time of the release, but with good preparation some reasonable trading risks can be taken. Today provided such an opportunity.
Price dropped 8 pts right after the release. There always seems to be knee-jerk selling on the release, regardless of what the numbers might mean. Price dropped to the far h of the latest fork, which was also very near the 127% ExR of the prior swing up on the 15m chart. The 60m chart rendition using the same pivots gives essentially the same far parallel target.
Part of the preparation for such days can be, and probably should be, the 1m (or even smaller) chart, as shown here. Before the BLS release, the swing up as seen on the 1m chart could also have been used for external retracements. Price reached the 162% ExR on the plunge (conjunct the 127% of the larger swing on the 15m); this fib confluence was just several ticks above the far h where price stopped dropping.
There was a snap-back reversal bar pattern (a two-bar pattern), as defined by Robert Miner in his Dynamic Trading, on the 1m chart. This is one of the stronger patterns for reversal. The trade risk was 2.5 points/ct. The combination of all the factors made this an excellent trade; remember that there was a zoom up on the 60m chart before all the drama, which gives us the advance warning indicator (awi) of a pz ahead.
This chart proves that the price pattern is more important, especially at culminations, than a minimum amount of time required for the patterns to be valid (such as m3 60m filter). The m3 60m pivot filter has proved useful in the past for understanding the trend and when it was likely to change on the daily chart, and the awi in this case was relative to that pivot size. The final y-z wave can take far less time, and apparently relate geometrically best to nearby pivots even if they are less than m3 60m. There were other lines from larger pivots nearby, but the 15m chart shown here is the closest and the cleanest "explanation" for the bottom seen today.
Gold has made a zoom down on the daily chart; 80% of the time the low will be reached again after a rally (a wave b). If this is to be a zoom failure (20% probability), then price has much further to go on the upside before a "serious" (Major Pivot?) retracement.
Price reached the Major ML of the primary fork, and closed higher. This adds weight to the idea that we may have seen an important low today, and we will make a new high. Prices are still in the "fast lane" of the larger trend. Today would be an awi to be considered at a possible pz >= 1362.40.
Time will tell. If price cannot get meaningfully beyond the Babson 0-y R1 line of this 4-day decline, and hold above it, then today's low will probably be reached again soon. Price is beyond the 0-y line on the 60m, but has gone quieter this evening.
Since price did reach today the wl#1 of the 60m chart iml (remember that one? there isn't a daily iml...) and not close over it , price may well rally back to the iml, from which a turn lower is likely. Perhaps in this fashion the decline becomes a major pivot? It feels doubtful, but who knows? If the up move is to retain very good strength, then we're looking at the "zoom failure" option on the daily, and this swing low (if it is that) will soon be in the rear-view mirror.
Correct Pete, Kim Kong was a week early with his toys.
"The G-V helps me avoid false signals because the better stuff seems to start or end on a G-V."
I prefer down before FOMC and entering the G-V peaks period ...
Price needs to get some bids soon, otherwise we may have witnessed an ABC 2 wave to the downside last week.
I might be wrong (again). The big inflection in precious was the 10th of Sep. I am always too bullish, got fooled earlier this year, 8th of Feb, a gigantic G-V in my home town and my gold fund had a multi month peak the very same day.
Here we are again, I might be exactly 1 month too early with my call, to be honest I don't know. How about the 21st of October instead?
I am very very tempted to let it go ... just buy and forget.
Sold all my First Majestic's and Yamana's, 34% out at the moment waiting for a new buying opportunity. The BIG question is do I buy in now or wait another month or two ...
I listened to RNP 291 this morning to get a clue on Gold and I must say it was a stellar performance by Argentus . Not so much for Gold, but we got a French Connection in stockmarkets. I wonder how many analysts around the globe has figured that one out?
I'm just watching it. I would buy if it were retesting the 2015 lows, but it's not. But then I want the biggest swings, and still hold the longs I acquired then. Fact is, swing trading to the downside 8 years after a top is selling late. And buying after a rally, on a retest to the recent range on annual year basis highs but below them is buying high.
Clarity does not appear on annual at the moment. Go out farther. On annual this is either a range high, soon to turn down, or preliminary to a breakout. You need to ask: Does buying breakouts work? Which class of investor buys highs?
Is the game not about buying range lows that fail to breakdown, and holding through breakout because you crossed the fractal size, and the range expands, doubling or tripling after you went long?
That's not going to be visible if you look at three months at a time. You need to consider 4x or 8x that scale to see what going on. Try it.
Price is at the 1.62 fan currently, below that there might be some support in the 1285-1295 range this week.
The intermediate swing. Note trading range during bottom formation construction. Also note that significant turns do not all fall on this cycle. The "next" red is about now!
This is the other wave. It contains the other turns. There is a question regarding whether this has inverted by being dominated by the smaller sub cycle. That would be the upper scenario I marked. But if the larger wave is still intact then end 2016 and mid 2017 lows were the lows from which the larger swing will arise/is arising already.
I'm on record as considering the upper scenario more likely. And 2017 is a topping year. And 2018 will be a weak year.
But if not, the future is not set in stone and that what stops are for! And I merely fail to get a second major buying point to add to existing longs!
Next timeline in the blue is abt July 2018. If that's a swing it will be a big event then. Note the blue lines are not all turns, just some of them. It's not a simple chart and highlights something else that's going on.
Relax I just bought in, nice correction in many miners the last couple of days, my shopping list
Auriant Mining, some prominent guy with a good trackrecord just put in 16million Swedish crowns, p/e at 2 and 15,5Moz valued at 10-12Million CAD.
so what is the catch? It's in Russia close to the silky road in south Sibiria.
Impact Silver, First Majestic, Yamana, Nexus Gold and K92 mining.
Now I am waiting for a final(?) C wave top in 2017 ... I trust uncle Festers fans, a double bottom here and then a turnaround at the 21st.
Just crazy moves lately:
massive volume in many miners also, look at Yamana/First Majestic on last Friday. Correction being bought.
I back up at 21miners with 13% of dry powder left
I just couldn't resist:
wish me good luck
Mr Bob Moriarty is the man behind my gamble in Aben Resources and also the man who recommended Novo Resources. He sounds weak, but his got a fully functional brain!
How are you feeling at this G-V peak? It's not just markets, it's people too.