The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Aug 29, 2017 - 4:05am
Solsson
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This fish is so tasty ...

I found this chart in another forum. This fish is so tasty, It’s a special kind, the future predicting Fish smiley

It has been swimming around the whole summer.

Tue, Aug 29, 2017 - 4:56pm
Pete
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Dec Gold 60m update Tuesday before the close

Price zoomed well past the ml and almost reached the uh. From there, prices typically retrace back to the ml, where they find support and keep going in the original direction.

The larger picture is, imo, extremely bullish, and retracements are to be bought.

If you look at the daily you will see that price turned right at the old Major ML x the new daily m0 ml upward. A powerful combination.

Wed, Aug 30, 2017 - 7:05am
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You've read my thoughts on

You've read my thoughts on gold for the last months: a trading range, ending in a new high (not all time high) followed by a drop to a buying point.

And you know I have been tracking stocks upwards, raising stops, not getting bothered by consolidations, but I did hedge during a correction a year or more ago.

I made a US stocks case recently in a video for people who subscribe to my work, and here's a little of that for Setup readers. There is a certain S&P500 level which when touched by price can induce sellers to come out and play. That is to say: the circumstances have again manifested, whereby I realistically consider the possibility of an end for the 2009 upswing in sticks. This means that I believe that downswings from here on, for a while, have the ability to extend and enlarge, if certain things happen during their progress.

This like looking at a lot of people skating on a frozen lake, and having fun. But also hearing sounds of cracking from underfoot. Nothing untoward may be the outcome, but if increased numbers of people go out to skate the result is certain. What matters is who owns stocks, and how deep Joe Public is in, not economic stats. When enough late bulls are observed to in, to re-use words heard on the radio sixteen years ago "They are gonna pull it". Now .... if enough public are into cryptos instead Those might be targeted (possibly) prior to stocks. That's a different day's analysis.

But consider this: when the public get into something, it's late in the trend and that's a big warning.

Well, I see public lending via crowdfunding internetware, and moving into what is traditionally a banking service in which risk evaluation is quite difficult, so difficult that even the banks fail at it periodically.

And I also see public getting into the creation of worthless (except for the confidence of the next buyer you plan to sell to) currency. This is the business of sovereigns, who can use force to enforce their fiat when confidence evaporates. The public are "printing" non asset backed crypto money, entering into the ago old currency scam and to me that's a warning. 

I am not sure where asset backed cryptographic digital money is located in this matrix. The asset underlying the digital FX will lend some confidence when that becomes scarce I expect. Assuming that trust remains at that time, in assurances that the assets are there.

But there still remains the issue of enforcement. Digi FX bulls say that decentralization will deal with state opposition when required. I'm slow to trust in that, because the greater percentage of the masses always unthinkingly do what they're told by big brother and because they never want any trouble. It was always thus. So does the percentage for critical revolution viability apply to anarchy in currency issuance? Can 2% to 5%+ swing it against the powers that rule's every effort to stop it? Those questions intrigue me. Past record is clear on the "this time it's different" announcements accompanied by requests for other peoples' capital.

Anyway, the public are getting into somebody else's business just as that business has reached a sticky stage, twice over, as there are big crises in both credit and fiat. I clearly see the huge warning implicit in that. It's basic investment savvy about late bulls and the Madness of Crowds.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 30, 2017 - 9:10am
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Resource war

It looks as if the G-V peak at end of August just saw the screws turned tighter on non-western-inline journalists and against Qatar in particular:

A stray bullet? Another report described a headshot with a large calibre. Disastrously bad luck in the turbulence of the conflict, or was he the target?

Take a look at some of the other stories from this journalist:

We are well familiar with the list of names likely to react to lights of publicity being shone into these areas of their operations.

The resource war, for seizure of anything of value, oil, natgas, gold, uranium, is still ongoing. Putting the connections together with the resource war and timing with the gold market my take is that this is a warning served to Al Jazeera and Qatar from the union of nations recently making hostile noises about and towards that Arab state, and with interests in Ukraine and the passage of natgas through these regions.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 30, 2017 - 9:18am
UncleFester
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@AM @Pete

I agree, it is hard not to be extremely bullish at this point. Currently, I have Au in a 3 of 3 up move from the 12/2016 and 07/2017 lows. And price has been trading in the upper channel of the FesterFan for the entire month of August. In fact I am so bullish that I am starting to look back over my shoulder and getting paranoid. In my experience, I make a mistake when my confidence is high.

To paraphrase Mark Twain: It is not what you don't know that hurts you, it is what you know for sure that just ain't so.

PS. Looks like today may be wave 5 down in hourly gold. If 1285 is the new 0.5 Fibo magnet then the 0.68 is 1303. I'll be a buyer below that.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Wed, Aug 30, 2017 - 3:32pm
Solsson
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Charles Nenner is always

Charles Nenner is always interesting to listen to.

Charles Nenner - Social Unrest in US Bigger Problem Than North Korea
Thu, Aug 31, 2017 - 2:41am
Pete
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Gold 60m PM

Well I wrote a long post and forgot to save it. Can't repeat it now.

Solsson, your <1303 call is/was a stunner. Hit this PM in a stop-running exercise.

My chart is here. The primary point is the return to the iml of the channel for the C wave, like a 2nd H bounce action. Price got outside to wl#1 and then slammed back in the channel to the ml. Now it looks like a completed wave, having reached a m0 daily p target (the ML) and with 5 m3 60m pivots. Or maybe it's the first wave of it.

With the abc in the middle, it looks corrective. 

Obviously the market was not as strong as I thought as the Major ML on the daily failed as support today, continuing this evening...but watch the closes around that line. So far, above...

Thu, Aug 31, 2017 - 9:57am
UncleFester
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Current picture

This is what I am currently trading to. 1303 looks like a good call so far. As I stated before, this bull pulse should take us at least to 1360 before a significant pull back...which is right at last years high.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Thu, Aug 31, 2017 - 10:20am
Pete
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@ UncleFester

I meant to congratulate you on the 1303 call (which I did in the first post I forgot to save...).

This also seems to have been at play. 

Thu, Aug 31, 2017 - 11:01am
UncleFester
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Thanks Pete

Nice, I forgot about the old double top. I'm satisfied to let this one ride a bit. If I've got the count right, wave 5 of 3 should be the shortest.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Fri, Sep 1, 2017 - 1:30am
Pete
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Data correction @ cmegroup

From my EOD data provider:

CMEGroup bulletin for 8/25 shows 1278.50A Probably they Adjusted 1281.30 which was in error. Go with 1278.50

Given the position of the low, this would change many calculations...

Fri, Sep 1, 2017 - 11:25am
Pete
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Friday AM gold

The hourly chart shows a clear impulse wave up, completing after the BLS report. w.3 = 162+% w.1, and w5 = w1. Price appears at this moment to be trading back to the iml that was zoomed down from the high (best seen on the 5 or 15m chart). There is a volume reversal on the 5m chart, showing increasing selling at this resistance.

So it looks like we have a w.a down from the 1234.5 top. That top was made a couple of ticks beyond the 0 ml 3-4 of the 60m chart, which sets up some interesting a/r possibilities into the next trading session (the peak to low line is the ml also). I'll post that later.

I suspect corrective price action for the rest of the session. The mkt appears as dazed as I am by the swift correction from the high (w.a or part of A down). I was long at the w.4 low (1323.0) quite perfectly but did not realize the possibility of the w5 top. Got stopped with a 4-tick slippage on my stop at 1323.1.

If this idea is correct, there will probably be a w.ii correction into Sunday night that "should" lead to a very strong upward move early next week--we would be in a w.iii of a one- degree-larger w.3 on the daily chart.

There can be other interpretations at this point, but this is the simplest. As I hit save, the mkt weakness is apparent on the 5m chart.

Sat, Sep 2, 2017 - 5:37pm
Pete
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Prep for Sunday night holiday session

Here's my idea for the next session. Generally the strategy is to buy the low or sell the high of the day and allow the daily range to generate profits. Since the daily trend is up, buying the low is the primary focus. I'm reluctant to sell into this uptrend for a correction unless the chart is crystal clear and the risk is very low.

If the market is about to enter a w.c downward, support is apt to be found at/near the line intersects shown. Given the probable continuation of the strength of the trend, w.c might not exceed the w.a low.

Because the market peaked on Friday on 0 ml 3-4 exactly, that ml is useful as a center line. The first reaction line to it has been drawn in. The Babson 0-4 R1 line has also been drawn, as well as the modified Schiff fork for the initial ml channel downward (that tends to describe the correction to the prior impulse when the Andrews ml appears too steep to be useful). The 38%R level already held w.a, and may well continue to support further correction. Other Fibonacci levels are confluent with the 50%R level assuming the w.b top is no higher than shown, and it would very strongly support the market if reached.

The current position seems to me to be one where one might be able to hold a unit long for many days. If my market view is correct, we are in the unfolding middle of a third wave up, starting from the low of 8/25 (i.e., a 1-2, 1-2 sequence). And that is within a larger wave from lower lows. A possible target for the major pivot is the Major Pivot Far H currently near 1375, about $50 higher from here. The settlements have been accelerating away from the Major ML as we move into the "fast lane" of the Major fork (above the ML).

I included a reaction line from a potentially good 3p cl that suggests a move into the end of September toward 1395.

Sat, Sep 2, 2017 - 8:41pm
Pete
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A look back; new discovery

While I did see that the last major pivot low (July 10) was a 3x formation of downsloping lines, I was puzzled and disappointed that I could not locate an upward sloping geometric line at/near the low to serve as a support angle. Well, looking further back and deeper into the GCZ7 contract, I think I found it. It has implications, possibly, for how high gold might go in this run.

That darned MLH was touched exactly at the July 10 low this year!

UncleFester, your target line for a potential top (of "what you are trading to") turns out to be the sliding parallel to the IML of the chart. Gold may well stop there, at the SH. Yet, the message of this chart pattern is that gold has the equal potential to reach about 1400, and even edge out the yearly top of July 6, 2016 in the Dec contract, the important recovery high out of the Dec 2015 abyss. Having broken through a Major double top, gold will have a lot of steam behind it. Typically, it can go about the same # of points above the resistance zone as it reached below.

This would break the 1377.5 high of $gold.

It also suggests that a top about 1400 in the Dec contract could be it for a long time (months, probably). Or, possibly, gold accelerates through that point in a panic to higher levels.

Of course, what actually happens is what matters, but this possibility needs to be kept in (my) mind.

Additional note: A top of 1400.8 would represent an exact 1.382 extension of the leading diagonal for w.1 as described by Trader Joe some time back (end of wave 2 @ July low).

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 4:01am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Happy Saturnday Maybe we are

Happy Saturnday smiley

Maybe we are close to a top in the stockmarket, I don't know Mr Nenners trackrecord. My trackrecord is 50/50 close to a random guess. Looking at the chart, that seems like a stupid call today, maybe the news is about to support the outcome?

How about some major GV event coming soon, I don’t know, but I am keeping an eye at AM's GV dates.

JNUG is one of my 21miners just to test it's performance against real miners. So far JNUG is the best performing “miner” so far. If you are able to catch a trend it is a very nice vehicle to own. You only have to worry about decay if it's trending sideways. Congrats to Pining for his very early call, I think his JNUG position is up more than 50% by now. 

To be honest I had to throw out a couple of rotten eggs in my portfolio. Company risk is a hard thing to deal with. Earlier in my “career” I just waited for things to turn around, now I’m trying to jump out as quick as possible.

********************'

Ok, that was yesterday, the site was down so I had to post it today instead. September the 3rd a GV event coming soon, checking the news, Kim Kong firing a nuke ...

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 1:04pm
Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 2:18pm
Pete
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@Solsson

What were the rotten eggs, may I ask? I'm holding many shares recommended by Byron King, whose advice I purchased via Rickards over a year ago (I have not renewed...way too expensive primarily). I wonder if he has jettisoned some, such as KNT, which I still hold. Since you follow various companies' actual performance and news, could you share what the rotten eggs have been for you?

When I realized that BK's picks are generally not going to outperform the junior/exploration sector while it was still down trending and gold going sideways, I started to follow some 21 picks of his via weekly charts with a view to buying when the technicals looked good.

BTW, BAR.TO gave a weekly chart buy signal last Friday; I had been waiting on that one. Some of them started to perform weeks ago, and now they are picking up. 

So, what can you share of rotten eggs? I'd be happy to share what I see of these.

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 2:29pm
Pete
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A heads up and a request

The heads up: I discovered last night that the TradingView software used by cmegroup.com at their site has been upgraded to include Fib tools and even more neat pivot/EWave labeling tools. Anyone here can use this great, accurate software to post their charting ideas graphically. I find I cannot follow verbal descriptions of concepts...especially when I haven't been able to learn them in the first place.

It's very easy to post or link pictures here. I went the route of posting first to imgur.com (created my own account), from where it is easy to copy to clipboard their link to your imgur.com post, and then hyperlinking using the hyperlink tool in this blog's toolbar. One advantage of this is that I have a complete record of my chart concepts all in one very convenient place. I can help you get going with imgur.com.

The request: UncleFester, I am very interested in your FesterFan tech, but need to see graphic examples in order to understand it. The TradingView software over at cmegroup.com is extremely good and flexible enough I am sure to allow you to chart your fan concepts so that you can post them here. I'd like to see what you are doing.

With the TV software, you can choose the size bar you want, from a minute to a month, and put on whatever studies, angles, etc you want. If you haven't looked at it, I think you are missing something valuable. The only restriction, and it could be meaningful, is that cmegroup posts only individual contract data, not continuous data such as is used for $gold and $silver.

 From my account at imgur.com I have started to print out for my own review the patterns I discerned often after-the-fact, with hopes that with further study I might see more patterns evolving in real time--for the purpose of making great trading decisions. Very often the correction low (p2), or the impulse extreme (pz) occur at the intersection of various geometric lines, and if these can be discerned in advance, in real time, then you really have something, whether a day trader or a position trader. Practice makes perfect.

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 3:53pm
Pete
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ESU7

ESU7 (yet to check the Dec ct) is looking very interesting for an intraday short play and possible position play. Remember that p2s are very valuable, and a Major P2 is even more so, if that's what it is...

Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 3:43am
Solsson
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I will get back to you

I will get back to you Pete,

Is a $10 gap up in Gold good enough for a BP analog breakout?