Today gold's current rally took out the interim high of 16th June, made during the previous downswing and before the low of 21st June. The rally earned a little more seniority for itself by doing this.
Selling has returned in the intraday timeframe. End of month selling is likely to surge early next week, so that is what I want to evaluate on daily basis. If this selling can be absorbed without severe price erosion, the next interim high is that of June 15th and a trade at 1267 would be adequate to take that interim high out. Possibly during early next month if gold can avoid extending the recent downswing and not be driven into a new low next week.
So next battles are end of contracts and end of month/end of half year. I will compare what these achieve with the already visible run down to 21 June to calibrate degree of bullishness/bearishness. That's why the rally between the lows must be as big as possible, so the bears have further to go to get to a new low.
Summary: on daily it looks tentatively good, if a good entry was got. But on weekly it's is still bearish and to cancel that a bigger rally would be required. that hasn't happened yet, so stops are crucial.
That rally extension would only happen next week if the insiders have already covered and they hang late bears out to dry with a bear squeeze. But there are monetary reasons why the biggest bears of gold don't want to see bears get squeezed. That must be respected. I will take a view that the earlier the low for June occurs within the month the better that is. A new low on the last day of June is undoubtedly the target for some parties, but they don't always get what they want. I merely watch to see how far they can push it against their opposition's best efforts and will hopefully be able to take some cues from that.
A not-so classic construction based on fit, and the final low being on wl#1 of the prior x-y-z. The useful concept here is "when prices turn at the ml, watch the warning lines for support/resistance (if the h breaks)."
Of course, it helps when a daily chart trendline comes in at/near the same value as your warning line.
So far, the uptrend looks healthy. No hints of a significant turn lower. But, a m3 shakeout looks likely (with corrective action soon).
Both the classic fork and this one give about the same information.
Notice the volume reversal at wl#1 in the early hours of the pit session. That was the tell of a failed bear raid.
My mentor used t0 say, with an authoritative tone, that the key contracts for gold are the June and December. The Dec contract shows a weekly reversal higher. August barely missed.
If the late June selling comes in, I'd look to the uptrend lines for support. And there's the new possible mlh on the daily chart to support a p2. We shall see.
I wish I could be more enthusiastic about GDXJ. The current uptrend is corrective thus far, and it isn't nearly keeping pace with the ML. Yes, there is the successful WN entry (at p2), and also the 2nd H-bounce pattern. But in this position, the 3p line at the bottom is not bullish really, and the ascending tops line or a little below it is a selling zone. The declining 200 dma is near the atl, too. The pattern is a bearish wedge right now, and the gaps up the last couple of days will probably get filled.
Maybe this will become an EW leading diagonal. A cursory look at the daily suggests 5-wave impulses in w1 and w3. If so, we may yet see a major pivot low to mark the end of this weakness. It would take weeks to unfold.
Of course, if gold surges higher, we might get a thrust higher in gdxj too, and we can then count an EW 1-2, 1-2 sequence. Price would have to blast through the atl and the 200 dma.
Mean Mister Market sleeps in the park
Shaves in the dark trying to save paper
Sleeps in a hole in the road
Saving up to buy some clothes
Keeps a ten-bob note up his nose
Such a mean old man
Such a mean old man
His sister Pam works on the charts
She never stops, she's a go-getter
Takes him out to look at the queen
Only place that he's ever been
Always shouts out something obscene
Such a dirty old man
Dirty old man
I made a new post in the Argentus Maximus blog
Here's a shortcut link;
Do Gold Mining Stock Prices Follow Cycles? - Argentus Maximus
This lifetime chart of NSU has a very good fit. Looking to buy as a long-term holding. Looking for a turn at the current MLH (given a zoom up) near 2.12, and if that fails, at WL#1 about 1.95 this week. Should yield about 2% at $2/share.
I though this might be a good time to repost this post from May 22, 2017 :
argentus maximus wrote: Remember the little guys get run out the end of month before, but the big guys can hang on for the final month. The little guys rarely get a good price, so that moment presents as counter trend. Large specs are often wrong, but not always. It's my understanding the market makers can roll direct and never have to convert to cash. However, if they are over their limits their end of half year/end of year accounting may document such a situation, so at certain times their power to dodge reporting is more restricted. In this way the "pulse of the comex" applies to it's owners too, as far as that goes. Options at expiry either expire worthless (90% of them) or convert to a future position and cascade into the future delivery month's open interest. LBMA does not disclose to retail. They can be used for a little cheque (check) kiting by the biggest guys.
Remember the little guys get run out the end of month before, but the big guys can hang on for the final month. The little guys rarely get a good price, so that moment presents as counter trend.
Large specs are often wrong, but not always.
It's my understanding the market makers can roll direct and never have to convert to cash. However, if they are over their limits their end of half year/end of year accounting may document such a situation, so at certain times their power to dodge reporting is more restricted. In this way the "pulse of the comex" applies to it's owners too, as far as that goes.
Options at expiry either expire worthless (90% of them) or convert to a future position and cascade into the future delivery month's open interest.
LBMA does not disclose to retail. They can be used for a little cheque (check) kiting by the biggest guys.
So ... 2 days to go for this push. Squeeze or no squeeze? I'm waiting to see if anybody got caught. Soon we find out.
Amazing...gold plunges $18 and rebounds about half that all within 60 seconds, on almost 15K contracts. One wonders whether the entity primarily responsible intended to run the stops below last week's low in order to cover its short position. Yet price stopped very near the August chart's r2 line (~$1 below), and on wl#1 of the 60m chart. And look where price settled on the day--in August ct, on the 0-y line; in the Dec ct, a bit above the 0-y line. So here is a case where price penetrates two important daily chart lines, on killer volatility, and closes above both (well, almost).
Can't wait to see what happens when (if) the daily 0-Y line (thick green) is challenged from below, again, on the 30/60m chart. Will the ml from pa be reached on a rally? I think so. Was today the swing bottom?
August daily December daily August 30m
You saw what price it bounced off?
The numbers matter as well as the lines.
What this is about.
You find it in the ground, in rivers ! It's free!
Go out and find some for yourself, and embrace a new mindset. It will help to a small extent to set you free( from the crud that flies around trying to entangle your motivations).
It took three days to resurrect, my new avatar
the water mirrored the summer solstice, like Jesus walked on the water, it was a mirage, sorry a miracle.
What is the importance of 1236.50? Had you talked about this earlier? Thanks.
PLN7 may be at or near a major P2 low. A good place to buy phys? The reaction line on the chart isn't Babson's R1 line, as it isn't the further one from the CL, but it is a valid reaction line. Price often turns there too (such as at the ES election eve low, a remarkable example imo). A higher settlement today with upside follow-through would be bullish. R1 comes in a few days later (x of the Schiff ML). Of course, maybe it gets to the MLH. Chart here.
Pete wrote: What is the importance of 1236.50? Had you talked about this earlier? Thanks.
It's the number.
1 / Phi cubed x 1000 plus 1
0.618 ^3 = 0.236
add one and it's 1.236. the x 1000 is just to make it 1236.
I'm using integers. if you do it with decimals to six places, the price stopped in that descent at the fib derivative accurate to 5 ten thousandths.
Did I see that one coming in advance?
I should have. The G-V left a giant clue a couple of days before. It could have been inferred as a possible level.
But at least I noticed it the day after....
Darn, I saw this on the weekend but didn't get to post it (website difficulties, then I forgot all about it). Anyway, the price action today was significant. Seems long rates will be going higher for some time. Looks to revisit the A level, maybe even the R1 line, soon. Chart here.
On the other hand, look where ZNU7 (the Sep ct for the 10yr note) wound up today; what should ordinarily be major support.
If you are interested in buying a high-quality explorer, this looks technically very interesting at/near the MLH soon. DYODD.
The August 60m gold chart has been a source of fascination over the last few days. Click on the chart to enlarge it. The key line is the daily chart 0-4 2p line in bold green, and the breaking and regaining of this line has been the central issue of recent trading. There are many examples in this chart of concepts of price behavior relative to Andrews and Babson lines. The recent structure has lent itself to a mechanical trend following method involving the use of 60m, min-3 pivots and the break of the latest 0-4 line, safest on an hourly close. This approach is not applicable to all trading environments, but when the market structure permits, this approach typically gives a high percentage of winners and a very favorable risk/reward. The latest 60m 0-4 line could be drawn this evening, after sufficient upside bars to establish a p4 low. I've also been studying what and when 30m bar patterns might give more favorable entries and exits in the 60m, min-3 pivot environment. The 2 hour bars can also have real value in clarifying the trend.
Tx for the posts lately, what do you guys think about the dollar vs. Gold. The later summer low camp thinks the dollar is about to rebound here and that would put a lot of pressure on Gold.
I think there is not much left in the dollar on the upside, maybe a double top at 103ish later this year?
Nice catch argentus with the 1236 low, that reminds me of another fractal? pattern. It seems that the solarsystem is one giant complex clockwork.
Seconds in a day=86400
The diameter of the Sun in miles=864000
I gave it a little bit more thought, if there is a link between physical size (price) and time it should be possible to make accurate predictions about the future of markets? Oh, that is what argentus maximus just did, in retrospect (or inverted future, that we call history lol), with the 1236 price tag at 13 hundred hours, 13 is the 7th fib number.