The setup for the big trade

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Tue, May 9, 2017 - 5:32am
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I think I posted this here Sept 2016

British Petroleum : gold analog updated:

What it might look like if the people in charge run inflation starting 2017 and the markets see what's going on. It has served us well since I posted it here, but it's my secondary scenario at the moment. Note the large gap and pullback to what equates to the 1450 level in gold. That possibility has got to be respected and is why I only acquire but have not relinquished longs thus far.

You can't see it in that analog, but there was a big selloff in BP in 1956. That brought it crashing from overbought back to the rising trendline at base of the triangle upper right of the analog chart. Well, if it happens that gold is prevented from breaking out during the coming 14 months I would expect a similarly sudden crash-like downswing in gold. But if it hasn't broken out by then, that would be the final low of the bear that I talk about and hope to see. If it has broken out by then, then gold would have the breakout levels, 1450, 1950 as places to catch it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 7:59am
erewenguy
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Like clockwork

And like clockwork, in his own veiled way, Argentus marks buying points to the day. Even before events take place. Amazing. 

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 1:35pm
silverwood
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A look at silver in different time frames

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 2:15pm (Reply to #9946)
Solsson
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Thanks Solsson for posting the summary above. It's good to have the record set straight and I appreciate that.

You are welcome, however I think the last part of my chart is questionable. Looking at summer solstice from last year we could turn around here, I think Pining is spot on. How about to analyze a gold miners wave count to fine tune a buying opportunity?

I am missing two waves, one up and one last down to finish the wave pattern ... the up today and down tomorrow, meh they are to small...

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 2:50pm
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Solsson- not so fast my friend!

I'm pleased you feel my recent analysis might be worthwhile- very much appreciated! But as Argentus continually reminds us, many possibilities must be considered and planned for, and there is ALOT to like about a June /summer solstice low! I am keeping that very much in mind as we move forward, and will adjust accordingly as the charts reveal themselves. I do think we have a great risk vs reward setup here, and I've built 75% of my position (I caught some nice prices near daily lows for buys Thurs, mon, Tues,and today to average in). 

I was pleased to see the spot price of metals break down through trendlines, they so love to do, to wrong-foot people and harvest suffering and capitulating longs at the end of a downturn. Meanwhile the more stable (chart-wise, to me) GDX has a very clear stop to honor- the Dec low around 19, bottom of the 12 month trading range. Really, this is just a pretty entry for a standard range- trade. 

However, the Solstice is very much in-play: we could get a fake out rise here and fall back, basically "double bottom" mid-June before taking off. We could just keep going down, break 19, and make a deeper low at that time... also very possible. So let's stay nimble and keep these "alternate scenarios" in mind, my friend- I am very glad you posted the chart above! 

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:06pm
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Solsson wrote: ...  Looking

Solsson wrote:
... Looking at summer solstice from last year we could turn around here, I think Pining is spot on. How about to analyze a gold miners wave count to fine tune a buying opportunity?

I am missing two waves, one up and one last down to finish the wave pattern ... the up today and down tomorrow, meh they are to small...

We seem to require a rally and a fall to complete a five. Which puts us at end of three or start of four in the downswing. Possibly.

BUT under EW rules the five down itself has ability to "choose to " become a one. That possibility requires due respect. And stops. It's the next support that matters for that. Doubling of the range ( or recent trading range x 1.236, x 1.382, x 1.5, x 1.618) does not have to happen, but that potential must be allowed for.

Not saying I expect that. If it were to come to pass, It would probably mean B down has not completed and is becoming more complex. with an additional a-b-d possibly taking the form of an irregular flat or a zig-zag.

If you go to look at the 1998 bear ending you can see a sharp move to bottom of range taking the form of a five, then a break, and a larger five to end both the 2-3 year bear and the 21 year bear. Can it take the same form again? Probably not, but maybe.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:28pm
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One way to count 1999 bear termination

I'd usually use fractals and cycles, but this struck me at the time:

Check out the price scale. this is the weekly. On the daily those were brutal swings! And yes, the c of 2 looks horrible. Use a rising expanding a-b-c-d-e for 2 up of 5 down if you prefer.

And ... would the range boundary has suckered in a lot of early bulls? Sure it did! The daily shows that the breakdown was a gap to lock them in.

But you already know I don't think we are at that stage. We have a long term trendline of very large buyers and also esoteric trendlines providing strong support that would have to be overcome first. I just won't write off the ability of the global gov teams in charge to roger(*) the world up even more stunningly than they've already achieved.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:58pm (Reply to #9953)
Solsson
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erewenguy wrote: And like

erewenguy wrote:

And like clockwork, in his own veiled way, Argentus marks buying points to the day. Even before events take place. Amazing. 

Yes, May the 10th

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 4:34pm
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Ok, AM and Pining why not

Ok, AM and Pining why not keeping it simple? A good old head&shoulders pattern, we got the left shoulder, the head and now we are building the right shoulder for a couple of weeks. Then a correction down to touch the supportline in the triangle one last time before take off yes that's my favorite scenario.

Many is trying to outsmart the market by making it more complex than it really is ... and what if the stockmarket runs into a wall soon, isn't that a necessary thing for gold and miners to catch a bid? Yes that would be nice, important parts of the markets puzzle falling into place at the same time. 

About trying to outsmart the market, I am just looking at myself, I've been all over the place lately, but I am getting better and better to control my greed.

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 5:47pm
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It's very difficult to do

It's very difficult to do nothing and wait. Doubt rages inside and tries to make us do something, anything, quickly.

Getting some idea of market structure is a great help, though it will never ever be clear. I assume everybody has read Edwards & Magee or Murphy by now, and hopefully Prechter & Frost. That won't render what we try to do easy, but it can help substantially in making it into a possible goal.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, May 12, 2017 - 4:56am
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@ Argentus

or put another way, as attributed to Jesse Livermore, 'Be right & sit tight.'

Tempered though with the adage 'The market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.'

Wisdoms do conflict with each other, and best to see both sides, to keep us on our toes. Which of course, does make the waiting difficult, because the need to adapt, conflicts with the concept of waiting. What to do, what to do.....

Sat, May 13, 2017 - 11:57pm
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Ronnie Fattal's 5/13/17 gold and silver analysis

 Ronnie says...More pain for gold and silver ahead. We just may see better stacking prices soon. It is apparent that Ronnie is looking for the bear market continuing and possibly for new lows coming below the 2015 lows? The stacker in me says that is fine but the mining stock trader in me says Yikes! 

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD, Gold & Silver as of 13th May 2017
Sun, May 14, 2017 - 12:15am
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@silverwood

Ronnie's waves "projections" change more often than you change your underwear. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

Mon, May 15, 2017 - 7:47pm
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SLW projections

weekly projections update:

Normally I plot one of the projections in blue to help separate the two, but you get the idea.

There are reasons (artifacts in the algorythm) to be careful about accepting easily that the low at end of year will be so much lower. For example, the two recent highs in silver were level instead of a higher followed by a lower high. The indicates higher harmonics beginning to take dominance from the ones I have been using for the last while. In other words, the downtrend is getting somewhat tired.

I will take guidance on this from the relative strength observed during the next interim high. Or lack of strength, whichever is more visible.

Many people are taking the last few days' fast decline (short term) as a buying point. But I am cautious. If we see a trading range develop instead of a rally with no return to recent interim low levels, then I would look for an initial false break up to fail and then an actual break down to a new lower interim low which would be more likely to achieve long term status as a senior low.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 17, 2017 - 10:04am
Solsson
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Gold is on fire today are we

Gold is on fire today are we close to a BP breakout here or ?

Jim Rickards recommended K92 to his subscribers of the MIDAS-letter a couple of days ago when K92 was trading at 72c. Now we are close to $1. A little bit of friendly corruption here, production update and new drills results released today. The timing is a little bit too good to be true? From a poster at Stockhouse:

Look at the biceps on those intercepts ... is that sexy or what.

  • 1m at 6.01 g/t AuEq plus 1m at 4.33 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0038
  • 2m at 29.6 g/t AuEq, including 0.6m at 130.94 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0045
  • 4m at 174.78 g/t AuEq, including 1m at 244.09 g/t AuEq, plus 3.2m at 6.88 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0046
  • 75m at 21.38 g/t AuEq, including 1.05m at 51.22 g/t AuEq in hole GCDC0052
  • 3m at 27.93 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0053
  • 3m at 22.22 g/t AuEq, plus 1.6m at 4.13 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0059
Thu, May 18, 2017 - 4:54pm
silverwood
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Silver's long term view

Any of you Elliott Wave experts care to comment on Ron’s long term view of silver’s bull market? Wave 4 was a Running Flat Correction?

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen051717.pdf

Thu, May 18, 2017 - 5:58pm (Reply to #9967)
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[quote=silverwood]Any of you

silverwood wrote:
Any of you Elliott Wave experts care to comment on Ron’s long term view of silver’s bull market? Wave 4 was a Running Flat Correction?

https://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen051717.pdf

For Ron to be right on silver I'd say Tony Caldaro would have to be right about stocks too. Big wave 3 up stuff.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Scroll down to the weekly timeframe.

I wouldn't bet on it until after cycle triggers are passed by. But a breakout successfully held would count as a vote by Mr Market for that view. In other words if it starts doing that I'll not take long to adjust my faulty views!

I'll be curious to read what the other EW contributors make of it when they make their comments.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 18, 2017 - 8:50pm (Reply to #9967)
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@ Silverwood

My 2-cents. Not an expert but I think it's wishful thinking on Rosen's part. Yes, he is describing a Running Flat correction accurately, but the price of his wave B for Silver is WAY too high above the top where wave A began. Just another random thought here, but since Silver has a lot more uses as an industrial Commodity, it might be that JPM has accumulated their stash to control prices from exploding upward. A good example is a long term chart of copper. It was held in a trading range for many years before it finally moved into a bull market. Yet, no inflation during that time? Ha! If such is the case, they will not be able to easily control the pog, which is viewed as having a greater role in the global monetary system.

Fri, May 19, 2017 - 2:34am (Reply to #9969)
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@ eclectic

I see your point about the size of the wave B in Wave 4 being proportionally out of whack. Would it fit if silver's wave 5 went to something around $200? I'm not saying this will be the case. Is there an Elliott wave rule that determines the proportional sizes of waves?

In regards to your JPM thought, I often had a similar thought. We know JPM is an agent of the Fed so why would it be unreasonable to think they were giving the job to create an orderly silver market? Future production slow down coupled with increase uses for silver could cause prices to naturally rise. Now factor in the possibility those condition could ignite a stacker's mania. The "tulip bulb" type frenzy that would result from this could cause serious damage to economies world wide. So The Fed has put JPM to prevent this. Just a thought.

Fri, May 19, 2017 - 4:03am (Reply to #9970)
eclectic
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@silverwood

SW, I probably know a lot less that others on the board. That $200 price analysis and projection assumes one has the Cycle and SuperCycle degrees correctly identified. So, an error in judgment on the composition of those larger waves magnifyes the margin of error if one gets it wrong: at least as far as timing is concerned. Like those of us who didn't correctly identify that fractal wave move in the pog from 1999-2011.

Another 2-cents. There was a recently article on Sinclair's website that explains the most important property of the metal as it relates to the long term pricing mechanism: the unique and fundamental property as a store of value. This is also directly proportional to paper leverage and for me this was an important insight to remain bullish about price expectations.

randomness