I'm a newbie and want to know about your G-V peak. What is G-V? Please share your knowledge on this! Many thanks!
The FT is often called the WSJ of London. Are there any London subscribers on this site who can verify the following change in reporting which has been the case for some time now. Way back in the day, readers could track the intra-day price movements of gold when those highs and lows for daily trading were reported in the commentary section. Here's a recent example of the reporting in statistical tabular form, but you will notice there is no running commentary about intra-day price action. Only the gold fixes are reported.
Whatever the reason, they stopped reporting the data. I found this to be extremely useful because as often was the case, major turning points in the market occurred when there was a lower daily fix which was not confirmed by a new intra-day low, or a higher fix while intra-day prices recorded a new low. This pricing nuance seemed to telegraph a change in trend in addition to working with EW counts.
For example, here is the data for Dec 3, 2015.
A.M. Fix (lower than the P.M Fix) at 105o.60, January futures low at 1045.70
On December 17, 2015 a lower fix was recorded at 1049.40 while the January futures low was 1046.70.
In this example I had to use the futures price (not knowing if this will be as useful going forward) because as mentioned above, the FT no longer reports the intra-day data.
Can any FT subscribers confirm this data is no longer reported? I thank you for your feedback.
Can anyone present a plausible EW count for the hourly chart?
There is a post in Setup approximately three months ago which explains as much as is in the public domain.
Short summary: G-V predicts when random events of a certain type will happen, and this includes repricing of assets. I never justified it's track record but merely post a 2-4 week look ahead of extreme level-dates and readers make up their own minds over time as their G-V knowledge base and experience increases.
@Pete: Complexity in the USD crosses is high. Try doing it in silver-Euro or to a slightly lesser extent in silver-GBP and work out from there. It shoudldbe more productive of your time.
I have an RnP video in the pipeline showing cyclical and nonlinear (chaotic) structure and that probably will exclude several otherwise attractive EW counts.
Sold my JNUGgets yesterday, a quick +100% in 2weeks was too tempting to harvest after the gap up.
AM's post helped me to take action and this funny guy called Clif High (some say he is high) said that some bond turmoil is coming in a few days. I am reading his Sci-Fi report as we 'speak'. A call for $600 silver will always whet my appetite. As a big Sci-Fi fan I just couldn't resist to buy the report. In this case a do not know if his talk about ancient cities below antarctica benefits his call for three digit silver. I wish him better luck than Mr Polny
Happy Thirteenday eve, please enjoy:
...Otherwise, his predictions might be like the broken clock, accurate twice a day.
@ AM--is there downloadable free data for the crosses you recommend I look at?
Try Netdania.com or Prorealtime.com
Pete wrote: ...Otherwise, his predictions might be like the broken clock, accurate twice a day. @ AM--is there downloadable free data for the crosses you recommend I look at?
Here is a weekly, daily,4hourly set from Netdania:
The frequency spectrum for gold Euro Cross. The scales are W, D, 4H and the charts are adjusted to display the recent swing or swing to date:
This is Netdania. I prefer the Prorealtime charts a little more and used to use those, but Netdania are very good for FX and the price is right.
I use Esignal 12.4 for data and charts, and export the data into Amibroker for some work I haven't figured out how to do on Esignal yet.
US based analysts should look at other FX crosses to their favourite asset (eg Comex Gold) because the FX are linked via arbitrage trading, and sometimes you will see something in an FX cross that is not easy to see in the home currency (main chart). Also the FX crosses can be used in a breadth fashion. I posit that if something is going up in eg ten currencies, and those are the big FX assets, then that breadth is considerable, and an erroneous trade can be initiated in eg currency #11 due to lack of awareness of the sheer breadth and money momentum opposing the trade. Like standing in front of a locomotive and expecting it to stop in under a thousand yards.
And when all the currencies pull into line, the trend is usually coming to an end in the ones that were earliest. In other words, gold and silver are FX pairs like any other currency. With a few commodity and fixed interest behavioural traits thrown in.
Oh my ... yesterday I saw 8.88 and I knew it was good I tried 6.66 this evening, but finally jumped back in at 6.72 wish me good luck, an ultra fast retest of the cup&handle breakout in GDXJ.
My consciousness is connected with the trading Gods ... so far
I found this little interesting chart, worth another post here, of course we are at the little b by now:
i feel some kinship with him because we are nearly neighbors. he lives about 90 minutes south of me.
he's been using his software to data mine the internet for linguistics since 1997. his original intention was to use what he got to make money in the stock market. his basic premise is that we humans are psychic, but we don't know it. so he picks up our language and interprets what he captures. he has a method you can read about if you go to his site. sometimes he's right and sometimes he misses. the thing is, he never takes it personally because he's just interpreting what he gets to the best of his ability. i like to listen to him talk because he has a good vocabulary and says interesting things, and he is careful in his choice of words.
in a recent interview, he made the comment that since social media became so pervasive, he is getting a lot more good data and that snapchat was great because people are so unguarded on that software so they reveal much more.
he has a lot to say about 2017, and we won't have to wait very long to see how it plays out.
Ronnie believes that AUD/USD correlation is significant to precious metal movements but he makes no mention of USD/JPY correlation. Comment?
A friendly duel Solsson vs Ronnie, I invite him to a Cup of coffee.
GDXJ chart has a beautiful Cup&Handle formation. I say we go up from here:
from investopedia, a very reliable pattern:
Going Long/Short After the Handle Breakout:
There is a well-known rule about the handle which says, if the price breaks above the handle resistance, it will keep on going up strongly. This up movement can be at least the same as the size of the cup depth.
for the recent high-quality posts. I wish I had the time to do them all justice. Thanks AM for the referrals. Meanwhile, in my little way, I spotted this and it must be considered bearish until violated to the upside (where the far H becomes a target). On the daily there is a shakeout at the high, and the extreme came at the min-1 R1 line. This is bearish evidence, and if the high isn't taken out it's got to be positive for Gold. I think of this in the context of Trader Joe's EW view of DX and how important a potential top here would be (and a wC up in gold). We shall see.
Looking at the monthly SP500 futures, there is an R1 target/objective (using min-1 monthly pivots) above the w5=w1 measurement. The projection tech is just like in the DX daily chart above. The line could be hit in a B wave months later as Trader Joe talks about. The nearness of the two objectives is "interesting".
Ron Rosen is till preferring the 2011-2015 gold bear = wave 4 down count.
He has gold at the lower region of a wave 2 or early stage of a wave 3 up.
He does not use Market Matrix in this, he has tried to get the end of the bear several times with Matrix, so a perusal of past pdfs might be interesting to follow walk forward analysis.
For HUI followers, an interesting chart is his quarterly irregular count in XAU Stock Index here (see page 6): https://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen122916.pdf
That one is worth evaluation.
I remember Ron Rosen from the early days of this mighty thread. I posted a chart were he predicted the low for gold. We are at that point now 1179. His Delta system and LTD nodes showed the turning points for gold. He said that if 1180 was broken then the markets was also truly broken a violation of mother natures law. A couple of years later we touched the 1050 mark.
I wonder why AM brings his stuff up now other than we are at the low point for his call from years back?
Pardon me, I said Market Matrix, Rosen calls it Delta Phenomenon.
As for why look at this now? It was never dismissed, though he called the low early, all EW counts need to be filed away in the box called "It could still turn out this way".
But you know I have been looking for a probable three lows to "make up the formation", and this is a retest of the first 2015 low, a little early to be of the same scale and stand proudly as #2, however it can do the job. For now, I prefer to consider 2013 as gold low #1, 2015 as #2 and this is a (sub) retest of #2. If this is so, after this a rally larger than previous rallies during the bear, and possibly lasting a little longer than previous rallies, to set up a high that gets the gold bulls all worked up again. And of course once they're in, off we go on a new swing to throw them off again and at the same time looking for gold low #3 wherever that end up being located. That low marking the final low and ending point of the 8 year below-it's-mean period.
The silver, and GSR are at end of a nice daily-weekly swing, and I hope looking to make a substantial pullback for maybe the coming quarter. I'll look hard at silver bullishness, and assorted other leverage tricks if the GSR can get to upper edge of it's range, but first it would have to rally through long term moving average triggered selling at current levels. That will take some effort and some time, and I'm happy for other people's risk capital to do the fighting while I watch and wait.
A.M. have you a favorite delta 'solution'?
I don't use it. Never did.
I prefer another technique that performs the same function.
That's not to say it isn't worthwhile. However, it's mechanical not dynamic, fixed not evolutionary-dynamic. I suppose the Matrix solution for gold is embedded in my posts and easily retrieved. Or maybe the higher scales from Rosen's charts.
There is a case I am aware of that putting a certain amount of time in figuring out Matrix for silver may be more productive than doing the same process for gold.