Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Dec 13, 2016 - 11:35am
tonym9
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Jazztalker: I know Palin has

Jazztalker: I know Palin has been open to MA's stuff for a good while. I'm agnostic on him. How much is the service? What I like most about your write up is that you say he gives clear info and you don't have to read between the lines. So many of the prognosticators out there make you read between the lines. My guess is that gives them wiggle room in the right/wrong prediction aspects. So why pay if the direction is ambiguous? I did pay for one service, I wasn't very impressed due to the difficulty of figuring out what was being said, I'm no longer interested. If they can't speak clearly why pay?

OT Hunt update: No feeders, no pregame setups except for a one day prior to hunt scout, no guides, no aids like corn etc...all on foot and all in tough South Texas scrub brush country that is not manicured. Federal Game Warden is serious about enforcement of the rules and not respecting them will result in a hard hit to the wallet. I spent scout day and the first day of the hunt hiking game trails, tracking, watching movements, and checking for treeline crossings at natural choke points. Found one right on the boundry of the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge near a natural barrier and watched for 2 days...sure enough, out came a decent sized deer for ANWR. At 224 yards according to my range finder I hit him with my .308 right above the front shoulder blades in the spine, instant drop without messing up the internals...73 pounds after field dressing. Taking a deer out of there is a big deal so my man card is pretty pumped up every time I walk by my cooler at the back door. Feels good cuz I won't do Texas lease hunting due to cost. I've hunted there 5 or 6 times and have taken 2 deer at 2 different spots, both weighing 73 lbs after dressing and both were spike bucks.

GOLD/SILVER: Either the setup from last year's FOMC raise will repeat or it won't. I'm on the repeat side of things. Since the election it has been very very tough and not much is making any sense...that leaves pattern recognition. But that was the same the end of last year too. I'm setting up for the repeat but it honestly feels like roulette...20000 Dow? Really? Interest rates up? Really? Everything doing great? Really? Trump the savior of the US economy? Really? I'm skeptical of it all since I don't see how the guy can undo decades of mismanagement. We shall see....

THE MARKET CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT.

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Dec 13, 2016 - 7:10pm (Reply to #41467)
pailin
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tonym9 wrote:I'm skeptical of

tonym9 wrote:
I'm skeptical of it all since I don't see how the guy can undo decades of mismanagement.

Correct. Total collapse still on schedule.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 13, 2016 - 9:31pm
Island Teal
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Anyone taking positions before Fedlines ??

Anyone taking positions before Fedlines ??

Long or short ??

What ??

Wed, Dec 14, 2016 - 10:09am
tonym9
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My position should be on the

My position should be on the sidelines, but....

IIRC patterns before events there always seems to be a rise and then the hit...i'm playing both sides. up first, then down, then up after the shock is my WAG

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 7:13am
tonym9
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did the at first up (small

did the at first up (small position), had to skip the the down (which sucked when I checked it), and now playing for the back up...NUGT 6.36 per (might be a little early, but am looking for a relief rally). 

missing that DUST ride really really sucks, but couldn't watch it...ugh

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 1:27pm
JAL
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Counterattack...?

I'm game.wink

Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 9:09am
tonym9
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Liking the look of the 118

Liking the look of the 118 level USD/JPY. If it can hit a wall there I'd be very very excited. Not counting on it but a man can dream. USD 102.87 as I type...encouraging.

Today is a big day. Maybe, just maybe, gold can find some footing here. 1120s are starting to look better. 

It can all change in a momen'ts notice tho

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 4:43pm
tonym9
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sold the 6.36 NUGT for 6.21

sold the 6.36 NUGT for 6.21 iirc after the drone/china deal hit the wires and popped NUGT up from 5.80 land. i'll re-eval monday for possible re-entry into NUGT at mid to hi 5s. just wasn't feelin it today 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 8:32am
tonym9
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usd/jpy looking encouraging

usd/jpy looking encouraging this morning at 117.18. BOJ announcement coming. In NUGT at 6.08

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 7:01am
tonym9
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sold the 6.08 NUGT in

sold the 6.08 NUGT in aftermarket last night at 5.98 per. This morning I awake to find the BOJ talked up their economy but basically stood pat. USD climbs to 103.46 and is currently at 103.39. USD/JPY hits 118.24 and is currently at 117.84 while gold is at 1133.80/silver 15.86 per netdania. NUGT bid was 5.79, now up to 5.81 in premarket. 

2 days in a row my entry has been too early/high for the day's trade and I have sold end of day for a combined .25 ish per share loss. 

I like that USD/JPY couldn't hold 118 land but the USD at 103.39 gives me pause. 

No premearket entry today...will hold for the open and about an hour in will see what level NUGT is at, plus I'm not sure what my workday has in store for me today so I may not be able to watch it. I entered a regular hours LBO of 5.44 just in case I can't get to the computer and it dips on the open. 

FWIW DUST is high 68's-low 69s.....just for reference 11/9 at 530am DUST hit 30 per share premarket while NUGT hit 14 per share...then the ugly drop started. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 9:05am
tonym9
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adjusted the nugt LBO to

adjusted the nugt LBO to 5.16...this has the look of a 10% down day, don't like the charts at all

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 10:20am
tonym9
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looks like USD/JPY holding

looks like USD/JPY holding 118 is becoming an issue. on the dip to 117.99 I entered NUGT at 5.67 after watching it get to low 5.50s....prepare for blastoff of USD/JPY to 120land lol

this is a quick in/out only USD still 103.48 which gives pause, but we will see....I keep looking for a relief rally in pm and not getting it

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 11:28am (Reply to #41478)
pailin
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tonym9 wrote:....prepare for

tonym9 wrote:
....prepare for blastoff of USD/JPY to 120land lol

this is a quick in/out only USD still 103.48 which gives pause, but we will see....

The trend has been riding for a while, nothing goes up or down forever...meaning any sort of contrary news (to the current paradigm) should result in a lot of newbie weak hands being shaken off (scalped) by steadier hands. And of course, if nothing else, there is the First Trading Day asset allocation that will occur shortly too. There is never a shortage of johnny-come-latelies looking to ride the waves that have already crested. Just sayin... ;)

With that, give me 10% off the Dow and I'm in the ride into 2018 and Armstrong's 40k (lol from where I sit today!)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 1:13pm
tonym9
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yep, agree P...just noting my

yep, agree P...just noting my 'perfect' timing of late which has been anything but....seems like i've been snakebit lately and as soon as I buy or sell the opposite happens that I want. USD/JPY 120 was sort of a joke, but not really...I'm expecting anything and looking at all of it more and more skeptically....especially this Trump Rally.

118 USD/JPY is looking more and more formidable. Of course all it takes is a zoom or a waterfall...these days who the hell knows...it feels more and more like gambling and position management and stop management and taking quick profit management more and more and more...

With that being said I sold NUGT at 6.20 today on the pop. Currently flat and awaiting a drop/entry point in hi 5s again

I still do not see how the hell Trump being elected can result in such changes to the market based on that fact alone. He has not been sworn in...he has not presented a budget...he has not specifically said what infrastructure spending he wants...CONGRESS HAS NOT APPROVED ANY SPENDING.

...but what the hell do fundos mean anyway, it's just created from thin air anyhow....party like it's 1999 people...oh wait, I did that already...party like its Trumptime2017 and dow 20k....yippeeeeee....meanwhile every taxpayer owes 167k to Uncle and a few % points up on bonds and the hit to the #'s will really start to bite....yippeeeeeee! /sarc/

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Dec 28, 2016 - 6:35am
tonym9
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Today has the look of a

Today has the look of a monster DUST day. Yesterday was able to get 3.06 out of DUST with 3 trades before the afternoon drop, gave up 1.00 on that one so still netted 2.06 on the day. Today's set up is even better. DUST was hit yesterday pretty hard in the afternoon, today the USD is up and USD/JPY is up...Gold/Silver haven't really reacted yet. Miners up in AUS by 2%+ so this is the only crosscurrent. 

USD at 103.31 high this morning from 102.96 yesterday and USD/JPY up to 117.74 from 117.30s....might try 118s again (expected fail there)....but am still expecting a downdraft in Gold today.

In DUST premarkekt at 60.20....we shall see, but I like the setup...mental stop is 59.00

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Dec 28, 2016 - 8:42am
tonym9
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Earthquake in Japan stops

Earthquake in Japan stops premarket USD/JPY momentum on the drive in to work...looks like it is recovering somewhat but sometimes you just have to wonder if you are snakebit. I wondered why DUST was getting to 59lows with USD hitting 103.50 on the drive in. Back to 60.20 now which was my entry point, but wow...just wow. It would be funny if it wasn't...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Dec 29, 2016 - 4:37am
JAL
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My Open Positions...

Short $WTI

Short SPX

Short DAX

Got shook out of shiny and yourows, so waiting patiently for pullbacks... For now!

Merry Christmas Klendathu!!!wink

EDIT:

Obvs would like a nice bounce to short in USD/JPY too...

AND FOR WHOEVER IS FUCKING WITH MY PHONE TO QUIT IT!!!angry

FURTHER EDIT:

Added a limit sell order in USD/JPY @11720

STOP HACKING MY SHIT AND I'LL SHUT UP!!!cheeky

Thu, Dec 29, 2016 - 4:56am
JAL
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Long EUR/USD...

Shite entry but that's a bitchin' pattern!

Thu, Dec 29, 2016 - 5:45am
JAL
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Long $Gold...

Dollar top?surprise

GLTA!!!

Thu, Dec 29, 2016 - 6:21am
JAL
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Long $Silver...

Sod the yen!wink

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