The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:47am
brokerk22
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@Electic

I am to young (40s) to take that attitude. I need to discern if this fantasy is going to continue more than a year or two it is not worth it. Other than just holding physical and saying screw it which I will do. Exit all paper metal positions (miners) and look for a new career. Somewhat starting over after 21 years of brokering.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 12:06pm
brokerk22
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@electic, canary

If the dollar doesnt go to 110 or higher in the next 6-8 weeks than I think we will have our answer. It either needs to moonshoot in a short period of time or come down under 92 in next 8-10 weeks. If it doesnt do either than I would say we may be fucked and time to pack it in.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 12:59pm
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I find it challenging to say

I find it challenging to say where this decline will get to. EW says we are in a five down. I add that EW also allows for that five down to extend into a sub five, making nine down.

There are other EW counts which are also valid, EW does not dictate which is "the right count". Only the market can decide that.

Long term VAP is bearish, and I have been bearish for a while now. And I'm looking to find the termination of this swing when and where that forms. I do not want to fall into the trap of "seeing" some smaller scale reversal and thinking that that is the one I want.

But I am clear on one thing. This CAN hit new lows. It really can. And if or when that happens between December and March next, whatever everybody else does will not affect me in the slightest. I will be buying a spike bottom within a multi year trading range, looking for a rise as fast as the fall we see now. 

Will I use leverage and get chucked off the bronco by the insiders? No. I will use fully paid up positions on the long side and catch that trading range. No stop running or margin rule changes will push me off. Then when I want I will lighten up and wait to do it again.

And there is a time when I won't lighten up, but this is not it.

For now, as far as I can tell this is a huge expanding bottoming pattern which is partly formed, and it will morph into a different pattern after the high following this low.

EW? Sure I use it in impulsive moves, which we are in on smaller timescale. But larger scale, this is all corrective, and the EW counts are all over the place when more than eg three years is considered. Precision is the attraction of Elliott, but to take Ronnie Fattal as an example, not knocking him in the slightest I like his candidness, but just to use his work as an example: where and when was the end of the last wave 4 up/wave B up, and what certainty is there about that - because the present count is anchored upon that starting point.

Try looking at Daneric ( nice - sounds like Prechter some of the time) or Tony Caldaro for alternative counts and try to then say this is the one and not that one. Price must choose, not the analyst. In EW the future is not written. Experience just enables better guesses as to the likely contender among counts.

So the precision of EW is an impression of precision, it's precisely measuring the angles of a spider's cobweb and drawing in the other side of the web, but only one side of the web is seen and the other side may be small and tied to this little twig , or it may be a massive and tied to the distant tree, making nonsense of our little drawing. You see, EW and every other worthwhile technique we have rely upon correct prioritization of corrections scale-wise. Prioritization sounds simple but it's the most difficult thing to get right! Take the central bankers, IMF, BIS and their gang. They look to repetition of a 37 year cycle. But Ray Dalio recently told them to look at the credit cycle, which is 70 something years since "we were here" before. I'm with Dalio on that as far as that point goes.

For EW I just call the current sub count a three of a five down, entering a four, and await the support to stop it, on a certain time point. I warn people from using EW for long term forecasts, the counts change too fast for that ESPECIALLY DURING CORRECTIVE MOVES. It's a good tool to have in the box, but it's still only one tool. If all you have is a hammer everything starts to look like a nail .... The market only does fives a third of the time or less.

Try some patterns:

The one in faint black is super bearish ending bottom right, and it's there in my possibilities. But I too have experience, which might or might nor help - I kind of like that one that I coloured green for you ..... and allow that the heavy black ones also look pretty likely to my eyes.

Can gold go up while the public is interested? Can stocks go down before they have been transferred to the public? So, what will it take to get gold into "the right hands"? A combination of price change and time. So if I'm that smart, why not just wait until the final and lowest bottom and buy? Well, I need the low before THE low, because I kind of think that best low idea won't work because I won't be able to get any PM that day due to premium going blastoff, funny legal problems, digital money/the payments system experiencing unexpected technical problems, meteors impacting the Fed, BIS falling into a sinkhole, lightning, death, plague, floods, pick your flavour! There WILL be an excuse why the public can't get on the bus before it leaves.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 1:22pm (Reply to #9614)
eclectic
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A.M. on the EW

A great explanation of why Elliot Wave is not THE final answer for predicting time and price. 

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 2:30pm
brokerk22
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Electic & AM

Looking at all your EW charts, wouldnt it be safe to say none of them predict higher than say $1350 gold or $22 silver next year and most likely much lower prices say under $1000 and 12-14 silver. So if that is correct in terms of EW time to grab the ankles or just forget PM investing altogether. If you hold physical and afford to keep it, do. Other than that, its a lottery ticket and not worth the time unless say a major blackswan event.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 3:13pm (Reply to #9616)
eclectic
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broker22

I really can't answer that question re $1350 or $22 silver. I THINK Sam has an optimistic projection for gold at circa 1500 for wave C. Trading and short term forecasting is not my forte. In fact neither is long term forecasting. Look at all the gurus(Sinclair, Holter, Willie, KWN news, Richards and a slew of others) opining about how gold was going to go into a bull market for the last how many years? Iv'e lost count. It's amazing really and the banksters must me laughing their butts off. In fact you could keep a record of anytime they printed a story about a big buyer, the Comex failing, any black swan, etc. it was a perfect time to do the opposite and sell short. I have often wondered whose side those guys are really on. Shills? The road to hell is paved with good intentions. 

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 6:55pm (Reply to #9607)
HardAssets
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brokerk22 wrote: If that

brokerk22 wrote:

If that Elliott Wave guy is even half right we are totally fucked. Then its time to throw your silver and gold out the window. No point even posting here then. Turd's site would be shut down. He is talking about 2 years plus grinding in low teens for silver and 900-1100 in gold. 50% of miners would be toast. In short it would time to throw in the towel. They win we lose period!

I'm with you man. But - I've never yet seen an Elliott Wave guy right -- near a big bottom. Maybe now will be a first - but its the same story each time.

I remember when gold broke out of the $400's and hit $755 -- then consolidated back to $570 or so for a couple of years in 2006. I chickened out from buying big at the lows - after listening to the Elliott Wavers screaming that Gold was heading down into low $400's. I've learned somewhat from that since.

But - I did let Armstrong talk me into selling some last December and not buying. Every other article was about the "slingshot" move where gold would break down into $800's -- possibly lower - before it made a move higher. He said the same thing about the equity markets.

It has always been a very hard trade -- buying gold - especially Gold miners --at or near a big bottom. Much panic is always in the air. Kudo's to AM/Norman. His cycle work has helped me balance the other views.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 7:11pm (Reply to #9615)
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And yet it's still one of the

And yet it's still one of the best partial answers we can find!

Those greed, uncertainty and fear factors are tough to live with. But if it was easier everybody would be doing it, right? smiley

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 9:29pm
brokerk22
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LOL!

I just read Rambus (another elliott waver that I hate). They are getting laughable with their predictions. He now has a long term objective of $7.65 on silver and $685 on gold and 160 on the dollar. Maybe reality will never hit and I am the crazy one. He can shove his charts up his ass for all I care! That is so nonsensical I cant stand it.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:19pm
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There is always consequences

Traders buying and selling metal contracts, investors buying and selling long and short precious metal ETFs, Chartist analyzing price movement and making projections from them and all of them can be justified in their thinking. But there is one fundamental reality to all this. Mining is a bitch! It takes tremendous effort to bring a pure ounce of gold or silver to the market. All-in-sustaining costs will ultimately trump all those traders, investors and chartist. So the bears can get greedy and drive prices to levels that may seriously injure or just kill the golden goose. If they do that then we will finally get our moon shot! So godspeed bears!

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 1:26am
boomer sooner
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It's going ^ > v that way or <

Wow. Broker is becoming more humble. Things are a changing.

Great writings all.

Something that has been knawing at me is why are ALL markets not responsive to real inputs. Casino is the best term I can find for the markets of today. The oNE financial item that has a stable path, you cannot buy, as far as I know. That is the national debts. Is there an etf that tracks, say the US debt. That would be an easy one to grab. Or Italian debt, French? No. Why? Because it's predictable and you could make honest money rather than gambling on which way the cronies are going to push, and how hard. The instability is how the insiders end up with your stuff.

Even those of us who don't trade can see its becoming harder to stay afloat. Those with higher that modest lifestyles are going to get a rude awakening in the next 10 years, unless a boom hits. Sure, some are making more fiat, but the number of those is dwindling and can't see it because they are making more through some kind of subsidy, primarily government or insurance.

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 5:54am (Reply to #9614)
Solsson
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Probabilities and

Probabilities and possibilities, isn't that what it's all about ?

70-75%ish probability with a breakout in the same direction as it was before:


Symmetrical.gif

Less than 30%, five waves down

argentus maximus wrote:

... The market only does fives a third of the time or less.

Somewhat comforting going forward. BOJ announcement today, stronger yen and a weaker dollar?

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 11:56am
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Silverwood- to your mining point

Regarding mining, one interesting tidbit from TF's interview last week with Brent Cook (highly experienced mining geologist, very professional, no-nonsense 30 year pro) was a side comment he made that really made me sit up and take notice. His investment strategy for seeking and rating mining companies is designed to be somewhat immune to gold price fluctuations, he is one of those pros who takes emotion out of it and just sees gold as stuff in the ground you get out at X grams per ton of ore, extraction cost X$ per ton, geologic layer should project to be be X meters thick, etc. His approach is to A. identify mid-tier producers that own large, proven reserves, put value to those reserves the way the biggest mining companies would, then B. calculate the buyout potential and buy the best of those companies. The big boys need ounces and proven reserves, and have to get them somewhere, and they have no choice but to buy these companies sooner or later, period. 

Anyway, his comment was this- For the last 15 years, the top 5 mining companies in the world have been producing roughly 90 tons of gold for every 40 tons of new, proven mineable reserves discovered, anywhere, period. They have bought all the good reserves, mined most of them, and bought out all the good mid-tier companies, so Brent and his partner are now having to buy much smaller companies way down the food chain because those are the only proven companies with reserves of any size left. 

Coming from such a no BS, no hype guy like that, I was pretty amazed... I know the stock to flow ratio is truly huge for gold, recycling is huge, etc., but still... profitable new supply is just not out there anymore, by and large. One would think this fact will have an effect at some point, the question is how old will we be when it happens?

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 3:00pm (Reply to #9624)
silverwood
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Pining asks

"the question is how old will we be when it happens?" Probably not too old to still be able give all those goose killers one great big giant Bronx Salute!

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 4:52pm (Reply to #9610)
my mothers keeper
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eclectic,

Sir, you articulate very well the sentiments I feel about the possibility of a doomsday scenario for the bugs. I believe I have arrived at the conclusion of saying 'eff! the rothchild bankers and the cartel members' who make life on this planet the misery and suffering they have created through funding wars and other tools of financial manipulation through hedgemony. As another poster stated, I may not receive the fruits and benefits of my honest money, but I'll be cheering from above if it's not in my lifetime. Sometimes we have to fight the battles we know we may well lose. I say, 'from my cold dead hands'. Yes, they are trying to totally demoralize us and destroy us financially. I would refer you to the following site for a potentially more optimistic view, especially the writings in his archives last month.

thank you for voicing my feelings so well!

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 2:17am (Reply to #9620)
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Re: Brokerk22 --- Rambus

I read the latest Rambus also. I lost major respect for him. Months ago he was ranting about how this was the big continuation of the bull market, generational wave up, etc... and now he says he never really believed in that rally. What a fcking whore! These arsehats will make up anything for subscribers. Theres this guy peter on twitter who loves to yap about holding strong opinions lightly. An opinion held lightly cannot be strong! Its all a bunch of rhetoric imo so they can pat themselves on the back and caress their ego no matter which way the market turns. I think everyone has the right to express their views on which potential ways markets can go , but i take this kind of dishonest discussion about the markets personally. Its a reflection of your character. I wouldnt want to be out on any battlefield with a biittch that holds strong opinions lightly.

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 4:19am
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G-V Newsflow samples:Russian

G-V Newsflow samples:

Russian ambassador shot in Turkey; 12 dead 48 injured in Truck-pedestrian terror-murder in Berlin, Clinton attempt to subvert electoral college function fails, 3 wounded in Zurich Islamic Centre shooting, Uber driver stabs passenger in Beverley Hills, Story about rape and murder of teenage daughter of a European Union (EU) official by an Afghan migrant/refugee finally breaks in Germany after running in the rest of the world first - German media interviews Merkel's PC excuses as part of their late coverage ....

From the limited perspective of this blog: In the circumstances gold couldn't be sold down. Gold has it's next timeline tomorrow. So the H2 2016 gold bear swing story is not quite done yet.

Winter solstice is tomorrow.

I remind readers that I reported a week or more back that the V component of my proprietary G-V Effect would peak 15, 17, 19 December, and will rise to elevated levels and remain extreme for a substantial part of January 2017 (dates not posted here yet). This times among other things precious metals and bonds volatility spikes but when it also times wider societal violence then the price control of gold by selling becomes unprofitable and risky to those who engage in it. 

My sympathy, condolences and best wishes for any readers who may have family, or friends caught up in this V peak.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 7:09am
Safety Dan
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Make Money From Disaster??? >>> Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Make Money From Disaster??? >>> Deep EQ leads to large EQ Posted in main thread.. 

M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Watch this video and learn how he accurately predicts earthquakes.

Plus see how the smaller earthquakes cause larger quakes. How they are directed to a given area and focused energy results in damage. Repeated impacts to faults cause larger quakes. 

12/19/2016 -- M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

12/19/2016 -- M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Video is 57:32 long. Learn in the first 10 minutes of his accurate calls from the previous day. 

This sounds horrific, but it seems one can profit by knowing where the quakes are going to happen and short their markets if its a larger quake forecasted. Ideas?

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 9:24am
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@Solsson

Looks like we're going to get that 3 handle on JNUG at the open... you taking a bite at 3.93? Just curious! I may wait to see if I can snipe a bit if I get an obvious shot at a low on the 9:55-10:05 drop and see if that holds up for the day, but I may just stand aside if it doesn't look good.

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 11:40am
Solsson
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Pining

Yepp scaled in for the second time, today at 3.87 smiley should have sold all my miners when argentus put out his gold analysis last Monday, but then you think, how bad is it going to get. Pretty bad ...

but hey I didnt end up under a truck ... or got shot in the back ...

randomness