Open, Weekend Thread

Fri, Jan 13, 2012 - 2:54pm

I am going to be away for the next 36 hours, or so. Sadly, the mother of my friend "Sweetness" passed away earlier this week following a long battle with cancer. She was only 70 years old. She should have had at least 20 more years of birthdays, baptisms and weddings. Instead, that evil, insidious disease claims her as another victim. Do me a favor. Relax and be happy this weekend. Take some time away from all the endless C/C/C/Fed/ECB nonsense. Sit back, count your true blessings and thank your Creator for the opportunity to live and love.

That said, here's a little C/C/C/Fed/ECB nonsense to help you pass the time.

Several Turdites have enquired whether or not I am familiar with a blogger named David Malone. Honestly, I had no idea who he was. Now that I've read some of his stuff, I'm going to be keep track of his site. You should probably do the same.

For our weekend discussion, let's concentrate on two of his recent posts. First up, this gem on MFing Global. At the risk of prejudicing your opinion, let me just say this: I agree 100% with this post. I wish I'd written it myself. Please take time to read and understand what David has written here.

Now, having read that, go back and read this from November of last year:

Hmmm. Yes, I'm sure that's going to end well. When just a small portion of BoA's CDS blow up, the counterparties (JPM, GS et al) will steal the personal deposits of millions of everyday Americans. Oh don't worry. I'm sure the Fed/U.S. govt will step in and honor the FDIC guarantees but, in the end, it will be just another $1T transferred to the TBTF banks, all "paid for" by the American taxpayer.

OK, onto article #2. This one has to do with the impending hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Unlike the first post, I can't say that I agree with 100% of what David writes here. However, it is certainly worth your time to consider.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the selloff in the PMs today and their failure to breakout and head higher as I had hoped. I believe we got our answer in the OI numbers that were just released for yesterday. Recall that yesterday, gold soared to almost 1665 before it was savagely beaten back. If gold was not a horribly manipulated market, you would have expected total OI to decline or at least be stable. Longs would be closing contracts by selling but maybe a few new shorts would enter and the result would be an offset in the total OI. Instead, what did we see? Total OI increased by almost 4500 contracts! This, my friends, tells you all you need to know. Though The Cartel can see the writing on the wall and they are working to flatten their huge net short position, they are clearly not yet ready to let gold resume its decade-long bull market.

I'm happy to report, though, that the silver OI was almost exactly as I had hoped. Unchanged! In the past, a decline in gold would have caused JPM to pile on lots of fresh shorts and OI in silver would have increased, too. Instead, a flat OI tells me that the EE is nearing the end of the position flattening process they began back in May. Be patient, folks. Silver is about to explode! Could it go lower still before it rockets higher? Of course it could. In the end, however, silver is about to be free of the shackles of overwhelming EE suppression. I am extremely confident that silver is going to have a big, big year.

That's all for now. I'll have more for you on Sunday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 191


Louie · Jan 13, 2012 - 6:20pm

WARNING!- Silver price going down.

I want to post a warning to everyone. I received 2 checks today, which I promptly cashed. Proceeds were taken to the LCS and exchanged for silver. Everyone may now prepare to BTFD, as silver is now guaranteed to plummet next week. 

Get ready, and wait for it.

Feed the Turd!

BUDDHA PRINCESS · Jan 13, 2012 - 6:35pm

War With Iran has Begun, Gold to Break $2,000

This is what Rickards had to say about the situation in Iran: “Eric, this really could not be more serious. The fact that we, meaning the United States, are on a path to a war with Iran is very clear at this point. It does seem the countdown has begun and it’s coming to a head sooner rather than later.”

“Things are moving very quickly. General Martin Dempsey, who is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has arrived in Israel and Israel is integrating itself with the U.S. European Command or EUCOM. So, at this point, the integration of the Israeli and the US operational capability, including NATO based in Europe, is very far along.

There are an enormous number of US troops in Israel. I don’t know if people realize that, but they are operating the THAAD system (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). They oversee weapons that will shoot down incoming Iranian missiles.

There are joint exercises going on between the US and Israel. At the same time Iran is conducting war games. There are a lot of moving pieces on the chessboard at this point. This is not just war gaming or thinking about what might happen, the pieces have actually begun to move on the chessboard.

For Israel this is really existential. The US would really like to see a world where Iran did not have nuclear weapons, but for Israel it is not a preference. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, Iran has said they will burn Israel to the ground. So, this is not just a strategic rebalancing, this is life or death for the Israelis.....

Posted over at the King World News website. The link is here.

BUDDHA PRINCESS · Jan 13, 2012 - 6:41pm

Jim Sinclair -Gold downside risk is gone

“Exactly, correct. (It was) a product of algorithms, of manipulation, of chart drawing, a product of the times. They (the commercials) will sell again at $1,681, but it’s just more delay in a drama.”“

The accordion chop that we’ve been in over the last month or two is over and the downside risk of buying gold on reactions is now cancelled. It’s never impunity if impunity implies credit because the margin man will get you. But in terms of buying gold on a dip, the idea that you might face a 300 point (dollar) drop in the market is completely over. There is belief (in the gold market), but the belief is coming from a very monied, very influential, inside type of activity that has taken place over the last two weeks.

Alf Fields published today that the reaction in gold has completed itself. That would mean the lows have been set solidly and certainly. The right way of trading in this market, since $248, has been to have a willingness to buy on reactions. The risk of buying on the chop was the size of the chop or 200 points. That risk is now cancelled.” 

The link to this must read KWN blog, is here.

apex101 · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:05pm

Natural Gas

Has any one been looking at natural gas? It looks like its going to zero dollars? lol. Any one thinking about stepping in here and buying?

Big L · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:07pm
redwood · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:20pm$2,000.html

Don't think this has been posted, but it appears to be a done deal. God help us.

¤ · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:23pm

Sorry TF... hear about your buddies misfortune regarding his Mom. 

Just go and be the best buddy and family friend you can be. He and his family need it.

Big L · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:25pm

Thank you turd

It was very kind of you to take the time to create thoughtful posts and respond to the 'peanut gallery' this week.

I'm sure it was unsettling at best, and distressing at worst to hear about your friend's loss.

My mother is 81 and has had cancer three times. Our family is very blessed and very lucky to have her with us today.

My sincerest condolences. My thoughts are with you and sweetness and his family as you all adjust to this loss.

My thoughts are with Sweetness and his family as they re-frame their vision of their lives without his dear mother.

I'll say a prayer for all of you.

Big L

Jasper · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:46pm

Re Yes $2000 Gold by June goldmania3000.

Once this puppy starts rolling, it will surprise everyone. Besides, what do you think science would want with your right testicle GoldMania3000? Its probably deceased and all shrivled up. :-)

OK Santa, Gold might not have downside risk, but I dumped my insurance (paper silver PUT options) and i'm feeling the pain today. Had to start drinking at 11:00 instead of noon like usual! I need a little comfort, but leave my right testicle alone! Sweetness . . . that is my sweetness still needs it!

s2man Louie · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:50pm


Louie, my first thought was, "how can he make such a prediction?". Then I reread. LOL. Same with me. When I go to make my Friday purchace at the LCS, silver either spikes the previous Wednesday, or tanks the following Monday. Seems to be the way it always falls. Thanks for the heads up. I'll plan on buying on Tuesday. :-)

s2man apex101 · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:51pm


Natural gas is not a metal. I move that your post be stricken from the record.

Just kidding. I would be glad to trade any finite resource. Anyone have a hot tip on ng equities?

Bay of Pigs · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:53pm

Rob Kirby

Nails it.

The $U.S. Dollar Centric Derivatives Complex: Progenitor of Parasitic, Ponzi Price-Fixing

"Tracking the evolution of the aggregate derivatives held by U.S. banks, it is apparent that trade in end-user products has been ABSOLUTELY OVERWHELMED by volumes in dealer trades – all in a “supposed market" which is 96% constituted by 5 players [the magnificent 5; J.P. Morgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman, Morgan Stanley] – as the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency tells us in the executive summary of their Quarterly Derivatives Report,

“Five large commercial banks represent 96% of the total banking industry notional amounts.”

At this rate of concentration, the derivatives complex appears a lot more like an “old boys club” than it does “a market”. Therefore, the derivative market rapidly evolved during the late 1990’s to the early 2000’s from a previously end-user-based to a dominantly dealer-based or trading market. The parabolic rise of these dealer traded volumes parallels the rise of market rigging or the movement toward a centrally planned economy."

kliguy38 · Jan 13, 2012 - 7:58pm
sixdollarsilver · Jan 13, 2012 - 8:13pm


Yep, picked some up at 2.70

Can be a brutally frustrating trade, but it won't go down all the time/forever... will it??? :)

NW VIEW · Jan 13, 2012 - 8:39pm

WHAT IF !!!!!

We listened to a good interview with Dr. Paul tonight on Kudlow. He has some good concepts and so do some of the other candidates but will any of them win the White House next November?? Most of these candidates are just flinging mud and will continue until election day but that is not what Americans are looking for. We all know that we need jobs and jobs will rebuild the housing and even the small mom and pop cafe. We have an entitlement and unemployment check mentality and that will not change with mud.

Something must happen on a national scale to change the attitude of those who do not understand and who do vote. What if>> several large corporate CEO"s take out advertising on front pages of all major newspapers in America and convey the following:

"We the undersigned CEO's of A2B Corp, X2Z Corp, etc., will be cutting back all hiring in 2013 and looking to move our factories to other nations where we can make a reasonable profit for our investors, workers, and local community. If the nation continues on its current course of destruction, we are moving. We will require the overturning of B.O. health care, the lowering of corporation taxes to 18% max. and fixed for 20 years, and the stopping of the printing presses.

Do you currently have a job and do you want to keep it next year??? Well, think about that in November. Signed: Uncle Sam".

Biochar · Jan 13, 2012 - 8:39pm
Stomptoad · Jan 13, 2012 - 8:47pm


My condolences to Sweetness. My Mom was 71 when we lost her to cancer two years ago. Too young...

¤ · Jan 13, 2012 - 9:28pm

Checkmate honey / Hi Ho Silver / Grab yourself a slice

Video unavailable

Checkmate honey
Beat you at your own damn game
No dice honey
I'm livin' on the astral plane
Feet's on the ground
And your head's going down the drain
Heads I win, tails you lose
Know it's such a a crime

Nowhere to you Draw The Line

An indian summer
Carrie was all over the floor
She was a wet nap winner
And rarely ever left the store
She'd sing and dance all night
And wrung all the right outta me
Pass me the vial 'cause the needle
It don't take time

Nowhere to Draw The Line

Hi ho silver
We were singin' all your cowboy songs

You told Carrie
And promised her you wouldn't be long
Heads I win, tails you lose
Lord it's such a crime
No dice honey
You're the salt, you're the queen of the brine
Checkmate honey
You're the only one who's got to choose

Where to Draw The Line

Checkmate, don't be late
Take another pull
That's right
When you got to be yourself
You're the boss, the toss
Of the dice, the price
Grab yourself a slice

Nowhere to Draw The Line

Fred Hayek · Jan 13, 2012 - 9:49pm

Thanks for the link to the blog in the UK, Turd!

Very good stuff there. I just sent that link to a bunch of folks. The analogy I made was that we thought we knew what the real crime of the MF Global failure was. But, for JP Morgan, stealing the customers' money was a bit like a crew of bank robbers getting the wallets off the 50 people in a large bank while they watch over them with assault rifles and clean out the vault. The wallets are nice but the vault was what they were there for. And better still for JP Morgan, in this case it's perfectly legal for Jamie Dimon et al to go up to the tellers with assault rifles.

JP Morgan, losers in an honest world, kings of crony capitalism!

cpnscarlet · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:01pm

Sinclair at KWN

Hung on every word that Santa had to say at KWN -

Now Jim said specifically that 1) The "chop" was done and downside risk has been "cancelled". Well, "happy days are here again" if he's right and we should invest for the launch towards 2100. And that's all for 2012. Interesting. And then he says 2) Alf Fields 4500 target will not occur this year and may not until 2014 or even 2015 (if I heard him right). Well if Au hits 2100 this year, I will probably use some gains after 24 years to retire my last debts. Now, also remember that Rickards is saying that war with Iran is practically here already.

Personally, I throw the opinion of these two good (IMHO) men in a scale against that ol' preacher Lindsey Williams who has said that there will be no war with Iran (or perhaps not before other MENA countries fall) and also that gold will hit $3000 "before anyone expects". I see the future playing out as a toss-up between the opinions of Rickards and Sinclair and that "rube" Williams. The next few months will be fascinating I think, one way or another.

If Sinclair is right to the extent that we don't not see Au over 2100 this year, then it's "business as usual" (a real stretch using that phrase these days). But if Williams is proved correct (and why should this bumpkin be right?), and Au goes to 3K this year, then I think "all hell will be breaking loose". If I see 3K Au and NO war with Iran in 2012, I'm going all sackcloth and ashes on you folks as I bring out the big "Repent, the end is Nigh" sign.

You've been warned.

kliguy38 · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:10pm

Lindsey Williams

may be a rube but his contacts were not. Williams was a conduit for the PTB... there are several explanations as to why his sources were allowed to give him information. You have to be the judge of the information you receive and its validity....there are many disinformation specialists.....some know they are giving the information and its purpose and others believe they are actually doing a service as Williams does....unknowingly setting the table for very opportune shifts in policy that is sometimes either out of time or the opposite of the stated purpose. Its all called psyops and they are 20 steps ahead of the sheep. Cognitive dissonance is a very effective tool....hehehehhee enjoy

jrobb316 · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:19pm

Lindsey Williams

Williams has said for the past couple years there will be no war with Iran YET, but now he says its going forward sometime this summer/fall as an October suprise hopefully, and that TPTB are trying to antagonize Iran into firing first. All the news seems to point this direction.

redwood · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:21pm

It's a question that has

It's a question that has vexed me for a long time - motivation of Lindsey's sources. I don't accept a deathbed confession, but sure sounds heart warming. Can you fill us in on some of the explanations?

TheGoodDoctor Chicken Little · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:24pm

@Chicken Little That silver

@Chicken Little That silver ink will be HUGE! Thank you so much for that article.

johnboatcat · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:27pm

Gainesville Coins PM storage?

I have bought from GC in the past and will probably do so in the future. I have never had any problems that were outside the norm for other good PM online dealers.

Anyone thinking of using any storage facility should do their own due diligence (DYODD). Google "Company Name" problems or some such search and see what you find about the owners and their past. It ain't that hard and your results will surprise you.

Hint: Dig your own hole!

vamoose1 TF · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:35pm


you tube, springsteen, born to run, your hat is in the video towards the end of born to run:)

jackinrichmond · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:37pm


anyone know what happened to PSLV going into the close today ? did sprott make his much anticipated announcement ?

TheGoodDoctor · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:41pm

@jackinrichmond What that

@jackinrichmond What that there is no pysical silver to be had?

jackinrichmond · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:46pm



yeah, maybe.. although that news would probably push the price up.

it was a weird week for PSLV.. first a big jump in the premium, then this big dump..

something seems to be going on....

redwood · Jan 13, 2012 - 10:49pm

Probably doesn't bode well

Probably doesn't bode well for silver's price next week. Trading patterns have a way of doing that unfortunately (or fortunately).

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