Pailin's Trading Corner

42245 posts / 0 new
Last post
Thu, Nov 3, 2016 - 5:10pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Picked up more JNUG in the

Picked up more JNUG in the premarket this morning, 12.50ish IIRC, 100% position...sold it at 13.27 per. Then bought back in for another 100%, added another .30 or so then sold, then bought back in late afternoon and sold at even about 45 mins prior to close. Now flat. Made back a chunk of the JDST hit I took yesterday.

No breakout to 13teens, bummer gold didn't follow through today. This changed my plan.

The new plan is back to the old plan...DUST tomorrow for NFP. But will probably play both DUST/JNUG for the spikes (I've had some success playing both sides on big news events due to setting attainable LSO hits), then rotate into 100% JNUG sometime tomorrow for the hold through election position.

Might wait until Monday to get the election position, but doubtful....too much FOMO in my head for this setup to not get it Friday. Holding over a weekend purposefully is breaking one of my trading rules though. I'm gunshy about that, but the way the headlines have been rolling out and with new polls that should be more accurate, it could cause a stir in the market before Monday's open. Obviously looking for a gap up in long gold Monday....and the possible Wednesday morning Trump surprise.

For this setup charts and EW and chickenbone voodoo doesn't count...it's all news (election results) related. Prolly a big miss, but you gotta take a swing when the market shows you the potential move. But WTFDIK. I still don't think Trump gets it, but it's a low risk HRC/high reward Trump setup for gold....so I have to play it.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Nov 4, 2016 - 9:39am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Couldn't get a handle on it

Couldn't get a handle on it before NFP, wanted to DUST but just didn't 'look' right to me even though DUST dipped to high 34s just before the release. Had I played it, DUST would have been good for the 1$ spike I like to use on big events....didn't do it.

Instead I watched for reaction on the release (USD/JPY)...a little movement, but mostly a yawn.

I bought 100% JNUG position at 13.30 after watching it dip to 13.10s....a middle of the road buy since it was 13.50s on the high end reaction. 

We shall see

EDIT: didn't like the look, sold at 13.70 at end of premrkt. Set LBO for 13.30 at the open, picked position back up with a few more shares. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Nov 4, 2016 - 12:16pm
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Pretty strong bounce in

Pretty strong bounce in biotech today. Waiting to see volume confirm today's XBI price action, but so far happy with the entries I've taken here in my mom's retirement account over the last few days.

Still long CSCO, POT, TWTR in my Roth IRA. Also still holding and scaling in to OGZPY for long term retirement position. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Nov 4, 2016 - 3:16pm
Island Teal
Offline
-
Cayman Islands
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
221
595

Positioning for next week

Looking at a combo of JNUG, GDX, TLT, PSQ and SH.

This gives long side to the metals and shorts the rest of the market.

Comments, ideas, better suggestions ????laugh

Fri, Nov 4, 2016 - 10:15pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

For Posterity...

Sun, Nov 6, 2016 - 7:35pm
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Just finished Shale Boom,

Just finished Shale Boom, Shale Bust by Dan Dicker. I recommend it for anyone who's investing/trading in oil. 

I'm going to begin scaling in to crude this month and a little more in December. (seasonal trade)

Also plan to open a small position in mom's retirement account. 

I believe that crude will make new highs eventually after we work through the shale bust. Obviously I'm not expecting things to turn overnight. OPEC meeting could produce something of substance (or not) but either way, I think these low oil prices make for a good spot to open a position even if it does take a few years for things to get sorted out. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Sun, Nov 6, 2016 - 7:59pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Well crap...that FBI/HRC news

Well crap...that FBI/HRC news took the Trump poll mo I expected to see on tonight's open and busted its front teeth out...it is what it is.

The trade setup is still the same. 

CS13: in talking with the oil guys and the manufacturing oil related I know, activity is still shelved...lots of layoffs and no orders. Most are saying another low coming but that once it's over it should recover somewhat, but it will take a while barring some event. Given what I'm seeing and hearing here in the oil patch, you have plenty of time for a good entry. I've been asking alot of questions about activity to try to get a handle on service co entries...so far it's still hands off. Not much intel I know...but hope it helps...managing mom's account is a hellofalot different than your own. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Nov 6, 2016 - 11:22pm
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Thanks for boots on the

Thanks for boots on the ground info T. Yes very different managing hers vs my own, but keeping a good amount in cash keeps me (and more importantly her) comfortable. She's very risk averse due to the conservative upbringing from my grandma's side.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Mon, Nov 7, 2016 - 11:20am
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Rig Count Data

Was just playing with some of the rig count spreadsheets for a look at some fundos, plus practice with spreadsheets lol.

Pretty interesting and makes sense to me. Declining WTI = shuttering of rigs and projects that aren't profitable at sub-$100..basically what we saw/expected to see in miners when PM's collapsed. Mines/projects that were once profitable in 2011-2013 not so profitable anymore after 2014. Miners (or oil co's) with strong balance sheets weather the storm and pick up cheap assets to add to their reserves along the way..

Anyways, doubt this is helpful to anyone but felt like sharing just in case. 

What I'm wondering is what type of pressure this puts on the US economy as a whole. I imagine many higher income/specialists in the E&P industry, etc were laid off when prices declined.

So...declining WTI price = good jobs lost = another potential catalyst for recession in the US if we don't get our shit together with respect to shale/domestic energy policy? 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Mon, Nov 7, 2016 - 3:02pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

CS13: Your thoughts are why I

CS13: Your thoughts are why I and so many I know not in the oil world were so concerned about our home values within the Houston market when oil's drop started... So far, it hasn't happened, in fact my home has continued to appreciate, albeit at a slower rate. I can tell you that many smaller shops around oil employment centers (think momnpops like sandwich places etc) have shuttered. The dentist I work for has lost about 25% of biz since all this started. We are located in a building with oil firms that have shed tremendous amounts of workers and we are also in Houston's Energy Corridor where the hits keep coming...half of my patients are oil related so I can keep my ear to the ground pretty easily. Every day I see someone oil related who was laid off and is in a hurry to get dental work done before beni's expire, no exaggeration. 

But if Houston is an example for the rest of the US, it will be localized. For instance, biz is down in the Energy Corridor but is fine in other parts of Houston away from the subdivisions dominated by oil employees. Other oil related industry centers have taken a big hit, along with the communities around them...think small oil service machine shops etc. But if you are in a part of Houston that isn't oil related in any way, it's like all is fine in the oil patch. People still moving here in droves, traffic, etc. It's a very odd thing to see for someone who lived here in the 80s and clearly remembers EVERYTHING taking a hit. 

-----

Where the hell is all of this email/news stuff that was supposed to be released that would 'shock' the world about the Clintons? It's 0 hour right now. If it isn't out within 2-3 hours you miss the news cycle. So many hype so much...I'm tired of all of it. End of days is nigh, get ready....oh wait, it's next week. I call BS.

That shit with the FBI is a flippin joke...650000 emails reviewed in a weekish? Really? Took months to review tens of thousands. Again, I call BS. 

It's all BS. I'm just a simple man trying to get along in a world full of sharks trying to take a bite out of my hide. Doin the best I can to get between the raindrops...but getting soaked just the same. 

My 13.30 JNUG position is underwater but am comfortable with it. The plan was to hold through results. We shall see. I'll keep swinging either way.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 11:45am
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Opened small positions in

Opened small positions in energy in my retirement account, as well as Mom's. No rush as tony says, but seasonally speaking, November/December is a good time to get long crude, so I decided to open the position. The rig count declines are telling, and production has been trending down since their peak in 2015. I'm actually starting to think crude may turn around sooner than most think, although I'm not opposed to the idea of the trough stretching out longer and taking more time to build a base. That's not considering possible action from OPEC or Saudi Arabia.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 9:15pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

HOLY F-CK!!!

[INSERT CHART HERE]

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/zerohedge

(Best I've got...)

GLTA!!!

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 9:56pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Slight confession...

Have drunk a lot of scotch and dont know what limit down ES is...?

EDIT:

5%...?

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/faq-sp-500-price-limits.html

FURTHER EDIT:

2033...?

EVEN FURTHER EDIT:

Scarface - Push it to the limit (lyrics)

(SORRY PALIN...cheeky)

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 10:22pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed ES...

For 550%!!!

(F-ck You ZH...cheeky)

EDIT:

PRESSED THE WONG BUTTON...

(STILL OPEN!!!wink)

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 10:27pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed 610%

That'll do nicely.smiley

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 10:29pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed FTSE for...

LOTS!!!smiley

(Sorry... Drunk.)

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 10:46pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed EUR/USD...

~300% wink

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 10:48pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed USD/JPY...

~300%smiley

Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 11:18pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

So I'm guessing that this was true...

https://www.infowars.com/report-reuters-pulls-polls-showing-huge-trump-surge/

Would rather seem so innit...?wink

The Avalanches - Frontier Psychiatrist (Vinyl Version)
Tue, Nov 8, 2016 - 11:21pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Closed $Silver...

~330%cheeky

(All that's left is options!wink)

EDIT:

...And 3x ETFs!!!

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

randomness