"Trading" would involve waiting until the presupposed moment, isolating a price level criteria at which being wrong is clarified by price, and putting on a position with a stop. If the stop survives you were right and catching profits becomes the game. If the stop is taken you were wrong and you are out with most of your money intact to roll the dice again. (I chose that phrase intentionally!)
Well - when you count the time out does your prediction still work or does it fail? If not then the manipulations overcome your cycles and are "outside" their compass. If the count holds, like stops above, then the manipulations are "within" the cycle and it encloses their effects. Actually your cycle could even be tracking the manipulators themselves. So your tests results are used to verify your system's success and reliability - if it has those features.
There is this: if I see a cycle the professionals and their computers saw it too. Next time round will be different because of that. This feedback loop must be allowed for or every stop I set will get taken out. It's a game of figuring how far they can drive it to get me. I must stand behind big money and use it as my shield. Often, charts posted in Setup show where the big money will come in.
But I allow for as much to go wrong with my trades as I can imagine before I put them on. Above all I hate to lose capital and it's so easy to do exactly that. I try to trade infrequently and catch larger than normal swings.
The call of the moving average followers, Turtle traders, et al! What's wrong with is specifically is that whenever I go to see what the trend is, when I look at one month it is opposite to the trend if I look at 3 months, and that will be usually opposite to what I see if I look at eg 12 months! So the theory is great, but in practice not so easy to implement as other people think it is.
But still we try our best .... Thanks for posting.