The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 4:08pm
Pete
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Alamos Gold

Probably made a bottom today. At support angles, and a shakeout pattern. I think the close is above the support angles. One of the stellar performers since the low.

Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 8:06pm
Pete
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Crude Oil Monthly

SRSRocco's recent article prompted me to look again at crude oil long term and I see room for continued decline. R1 is near prior multi-year lows over the coming months. What a nice center line.

Sun, Aug 14, 2016 - 4:12am (Reply to #9231)
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eclectic wrote: Solsson, can

eclectic wrote:

Solsson, can you tell us the chart source? Tks in advance.

Source: London Bullion Market Association - Casey Research

Sun, Aug 14, 2016 - 7:51am (Reply to #9233)
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I'm back from a short

I'm back from a short break.

Thanks to all for keeping Setup ticking over with your great posts and ideas! 

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 14, 2016 - 7:52am
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Hi Pete,That looks like a

Hi Pete,

That looks like a giant A-B-C to me.
A - sharp down into 2009

B A up through the trendline, B back to touch it, and a rising triangular wedge for a failed C to probably complete B up to August 2013.

C down from August 2013 high is looking complete, or if down from June 2014 (with an extended 1st wave) then C down is incomplete with a shortish third that must contain any future down swing 5th to complete C.

If this should be the case, then completion of C will produce either a D up or major one up. Proximity of the lower rising TL would be material for ignition of such an upswing. But, in alternative to waiting for contact with that, I notice that March 2016 low in CL was 87.5% pullback of the entire rise off the 1999 lows.

Can we figure an end of C using subwave count to catch D or 1 up? Cyclically there's a highly interesting time at January 2018. If it's not too obvious and draws in bullish speculation to ruin it, that may be the moment either (end of C or bottom of 2/b pullback retesting the major low).

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 14, 2016 - 8:07am (Reply to #9227)
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Once the new high was in, the

Once the new high was in, the 5th of 5th count moved to top probability. The irregular B high looks to be eliminated.

Back to watching and waiting. smiley

I'm intrigued by your top projection resistance level. I haven't tried doing price levels much in SPX for a while. But maybe the broader Wilshere or Russell, or FTSE 250 might give something useful analysis-wise for price projections.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 14, 2016 - 7:36pm (Reply to #9237)
Pete
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@AM

Hi AM,

re ES, I was just going by the most direct application of some methods for modeling a 5th wave top. I noticed the convergence, which always gets my attention. I have no conviction it will actually get there, but if it does...

The internals of w.5 will be key, imo, and are more important than the larger lines of the chart. If they pinpoint the same time/price, then we really have something.

I took my small loss on my SDS call position, and am waiting for another opportunity.

Similarly for crude oil, I was just wanting to see if Babson's favorite method could support claims by some that crude has further to decline, which would correlate (in my mind) with global recession/depression. Some say 2016-2020 is cyclically a very poor economic time. I don't know how strictly the EW rule of alternation of corrections (forms of w2 and w4) must be met for a correct, true to life wave count, but I don't see it yet happening in the last wave down.

If the bottom is above R1, maybe R1 is touched sometime (much?) later in a bottoming phase.

WDIK. I keep wondering, re stocks, how wide the exit door is going to be.

Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 12:01pm
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Silver-Euro weekly projection update

Here is an update for the weekly spot silver Euro cross projection:

This is a cross for silver for which this projection did not work until a phase shift recently brought into alignment with the price denominated in Euros. And I (think I) posted it here as a possible new insight into what may come.

Since then, the ongoing consolidation in the Silver-Euro price lends added confidence in this projection for the moment. Note that the robust and sensitive projections part company in the timing of short term swings soon, and have a major splitting of forecast after 14 November 2016. The robust (in red) considers a reversal to the upside more probable, but the sensitive (but less reliable) blue prefers a continuation of the short term break to the downside in November, extending that break to medium term size and duration.

I have marked the inflection date, and possibly market fluctuations between now and then will provide extra weight to one or the other view. But either way, my preferred strategy of trading following (inflection) bar breakout indicating direction will be how I work with this.

For the longer perspective, and if XAGEUR proceeds in accordance with this projection, the red and blue major high and low are February 2017.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 2:02pm
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When events may cluster for

When events may cluster for the coming 2-3 weeks:

G-V index

G : peaking today 15th and remaining elevated through to 18th August on which is a big peak, then easing off it's plateau descending after 23rd, with an isolated spike on last day of August 31st.

V : Extremely high 24th August plus a little into 25th, lesser other less spiky (in time ) peaks on 26th and 31st. People working with people take note. Depression for those susceptible may become extreme. Consider reaching out to good friends going through hard times.

Financial Power Indicator: 25th and 26th

I also should mention for the planetary-astrology Gann market cycle folks that there are Lunar Eclipses 18 August and 1 September. These alignments coincide with some of the G-V dates noted above and this may contribute added importance. I can't comment with authority on that possibility, but merely note the coincidence before the time and watch to see how much price altering stuff occurs at critical times.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A short notice RnP webinar has been sheduled for an hour at 9pm BST 4pm Eastern Thursday 18th August.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 3:01pm
Solsson
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USD - ZAR cross, I found this

USD - ZAR cross, I found this interesting piece of info:

Scary conformity, USD/ZAR had a breakdown in Jan 2016:

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/silver-price-forecast-thi...

Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 3:38pm (Reply to #9240)
SamSchlepps
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A Fit or Misdirection or Both

argentus maximus wrote:

When events may cluster for the coming 2-3 weeks:

Invest Yourself - Financial Intelligence Report - August 10 , 2016

"...Sept. 26 will be 56 years to the day of the first televised general-election debate, between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960. It was watched by 66 million people in grainy black and white. This year, with a race that's literally never been seen before, I fully expect to see ALL the records broken. People are looking for blood in the streets. I've been hearing about "debate parties" already being planned. This is going to be big. Some estimates are calling for 100 million viewers. It could be a lot more than that if you factor in on line live streaming around the world..."

Fri, Aug 19, 2016 - 12:35pm
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Comex Gold technical situation

Only looking at support, resistance, demand, supply in daily:

Gold is very well balanced. But under a close inspection, today's trading daily range is ever so slightly (daytraders can choke at that!) above the main bear descending trend. And it is also ever so slightly above the first VAP support of buyer price willingness to enter longs or cover shorts.

Almost a coin flip - but not quite - the greater probability is slightly with the upside, until or unless the VAP support is penetrated. And in finely balanced situations there are plenty of traders who will be on the wrong side when it goes, which forced into covering or exiting their positions will lend extra power to the next break when it comes, thus enlarging that swing to some degree.

Last time gold contested (created) this bear trend was almost exactly four years ago. The pullback failure that provoked a four year bear. Yes, that pullback, and that timespan between them. What happens every four years?

There is substantial importance on how things work out this time. I speculate on construction of a gently descending (bullish) pennant of large scale. But that's speculation and can be wrong. I will work with whatever the market chooses to do.

The weekly open for Gold 208 weeks ago was 1618.50. This week's high is 1364.30 so far half way through Friday's, at 1348 as I speak. I wonder will gold manage to rise 34 dollars into the weekly close, or next week's open? It's already close enough for me, but if it were to go that way that would be something to see.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Aug 20, 2016 - 2:36pm
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Buying the dip, what to look for

Looking at $silver on a technical basis, silver's Friday 8/19/16 close provided us with the possibility of a correction occurring in this new bull phase. Silver closed near the 50 DMA @ $19.31. It is also at the bottom of the recent trading range. Trader Dan has a good post on this...https://traderdan.com/?p=13245. With this bearish leg possibility manifesting, I thought it would be helpful to stackers who want to buy the dip to see where possible downside targets could be. Going to stock charts and pulling up a 1 year daily chart for $silver then annotating the chart to use a Fibonacci retracement on it. This 1st bull leg we see that silver bottomed back in Dec. 15 @ $13.62 and it topped @ $ 21.23 in July 16. So doing our retracement we get $18.32 @ the 38.2%. I think this would be a place I would add some phys. $17.42 for the 50%. I would buy more aggressively here. Then $16.53 for the 61.8%. I would back up the truck here. My gut feeling is we never get much below the 38.2% retrace as there is an old peak @ $18.06 occurring in late April 16 which should act as support. Anyway all this may not come to pass if silver holds at the 50 dma. GLTA...Silverwood

Tue, Aug 23, 2016 - 9:33am
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Review of 7 July post in Setup

This was posted here July 7, 2016 - 3:24pm BST. Now we can look back and see how these days look with the wisdom and clear vision of hindsight:

argentus maximus wrote:

Incoming Silver-GBP Sterling Pivots

An attempt - not sure if there may turn out to be any coincidence between these and silver crosses with other FX - this is for Spot Silver:GBP only.

12 July

 21 July

5 August

.....

And yet .... three dates. And, not long to wait to see what they mean, if anything.

Not TA, this was before the charts reached these days. That is to say the analysis was off the charts when it was made. Realtime confirmation (as much as any realtime analysis can give perspective) would have been applied to confirm or deny the proposed days, as each day was arrived at. And now we subsequently have even more ability to see what mattered, and which swings of the market were most significant, and which were not.

Not every day provides better than average opportunity. Mostly, it pays to wait. If you have an idea of what you wait for.

And the news has nothing to do with it most of the time. This is evaluation, for Setup readers, of a prior-to-the-news-analysis. This news would have included Fed actions, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and all the rest.

Track record of one post which was intended to be reviewed later. See it for what it is, evaluate it. Adjust your appraisal of what Setup is accordingly.

EDIT: PS. I made the analysis on the circled price bar, marked by the little black circle, and posted it during the following "red" bar.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Aug 23, 2016 - 4:24pm
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FOFOA new article re GLD metal sources during tight market

FOFOA, using Warren James's (of Screwtape Blog) Bar List + Ronan Manly stats, has produced this interesting article about the BOE "easing" difficulties of acquisition of gold for the GLD fund early this year.

Intuitively we know what's going on, but this is a nice and thorough working over of the available data, the involvement and self interest motivations of the World Gold Council (WGC) concluding with a reasonable surmise based on evidence available.

You can find it here:

https://fofoa.blogspot.ie/2016/08/eight.html

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Aug 23, 2016 - 6:04pm (Reply to #9246)
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Thanks AM.  I miss the lemurs

Thanks AM. I miss the lemurs from screwtape blog (last post was Dec 2015), they did some good work before running off the rails attacking our esteemed host.

I just listened to audiobook of the Screwtape Letters and Screwtape Proposes a Toast(excellent description of the use of "democracy" as a never-really-defined incantation)

Off to read FOFOA..

Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 8:42am
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On this day, August 24th,

On this day, August 24th, ....

there was a National Emigration Convention of Colored People in Cleveland

https://ech.case.edu/cgi/article.pl?id=NECOCP

https://coloredconventions.org/items/show/314 (somehow no wikipedia link for this item ....)

the US passed the Anti-gag law, giving federal employees right to petition government

the Luftwaffe began bombing London

Peru nationalized US oil assets

the USSR exploded a nuclear bomb underground in tests

the Mars Observer made it's closest pass by Mars

the stock market was making it's high prior to the 1987 crash

there was a fire in the Hamptons on Long Island

in 1998, 18 years ago, gold was making it's last but one low prior to it's final 19.5 year bear market low

in 2011 Tim Cook replaced Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple

Does any of those titles above not ring a bell in the modern context? As it happens, today is a very high "V" day. Attention to stops may be timely.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 9:29am
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Same old cockroaches,

Same old cockroaches, crawling out from under the same old stones.

It's a small dump. End of month protection for market shorts. High cost (artificially low exit price) value given to exiting weak longs unable to stump up the money to take delivery or defend their positions.

So where are the price levels at which tougher buyers lurk who will buy paper and then pay 100% (not a tiddly little amateurs' margin) and demand delivery? We just watch and see it being unveiled.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 11:45am
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Gold selling "with

Gold selling "with power"

Turkey special forces & tanks invade Syria with air support from US-led coalition

Monsanto withdraws GMO cotton seed from India, it's 2nd biggest market due to difficult negotiations

Ford recalls almost 100,ooo cars citing fuel pump issue

World's longest airship (!) crash in UK

California bill to repeal tampon tax (unpopular sales tax on womens' hygiene products) goes to Gov, nice sex equality job that one - women vs men with overt use of political leverage power play dynamics to influence positive-negative bias gender taxation!

The religious top tier skullduggery and pharma scares appear to be a little late in the news stream. Mass protests in Zimbabwe seems to be encountering water cannons and rubber bullets. Earthquake deaths in Italy. Women set on fire in Congo lynchings. The usual boardroom contests, riot, murder and suicide reports, pharma threat-to-humanity scare of the month, are probably going into the pipeline now.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 3:20pm (Reply to #9240)
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argentus maximus wrote: V :

argentus maximus wrote:

V : Extremely high 24th August

You nailed it again AM, your v-algo is really something. Horrible events, very sad.

It's been a good year so far, I am ahead of "be my own lead" schedule right now, but my trades is far from perfect. A nice and easy identified five wave up, I am getting a little bit too emotional close to the trade. Selling to late and buying a little bit too early is my main weakness. Scaled in today (and the day before yesterday) in one of my miners. Now very close to the 61.8% retracement level:

I've finally convinced my family to invest some of their money in precious metals instead of currency in a bank account with zero rates or common stock. I hope I will find a good entry point in GDXJ and SILJ soon.

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