The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Jul 26, 2016 - 3:54pm
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argentus maximus wrote: July

argentus maximus wrote:
July 18, 2016 - 12:25pm

V peaks today Monday, plateaus, back up on Thurs 21st July, eases slightly, up significantly on 26-27.

G-V is notable 21st, and peaking 27th July and higher peak on the end of month weekend.

Last week of July 2016 should print price levels which become important across many asset classes when viewed looking back from later.

Another sad day, in France and Japan, and undoubtedly elsewhere too.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 26, 2016 - 4:08pm
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Well 3 1/2 hours went by in a blink

Well 3 1/2 hours went by in a blink, and I hope everybody had a good time! Lots got covered. A big and ultra long distance stocks call was the highlight for me. Ran out of time for shorter term stuff, but that will get done during the coming days.

I promised to keep something good for SetupFor The Big Trade readers from the meeting. Here it is

Here is a projection for the Silver Euro cross that wasn't working, but may have clicked into phase. The GBP cross is probably tracking pretty much the same. I have not looked at that specifically yet. An interesting period is marked and dated. Too soon to tell if it's "on" or not, but I am optimistic. Of course nobody really knows until afterwards, right?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 27, 2016 - 4:26am
Solsson
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Doji

A crystal clear Doji in daily Spx , a sign of a reversal in an indecisive market.

https://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/doji-candlestick-pattern.html

This indicates that FOMC will disappoint the market later today ?

A couldn't hold my horses any longer, I just placed a bearish bet in S&P 500, wish me good luck smiley maybe a small wave up to 2190 is left in the tank for Spx, but I doubt it.

Wed, Jul 27, 2016 - 10:27am
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I must say the DNC

I must say the DNC presidential problem which manifested at the 80 year cycle turn amuses me.

They set up a leftist propaganda meme in the population's educational system for decades, and can't see what comes - Truman-like Hilary Clinton their chosen candidate - the corporatist and establishment party candidate - is not left enough, not idealistic enough, and finds herself painted with all the smears they made to throw at the Republicans.

Got to chuckle at how the various media jumped through hoops trying to not allow the boos and Bernie chanting to be heard in their coverage. Too late guys!

It seems the Bernie supporters have not yet figured out his strawman role in absorbing the criticism which would have been directed towards HRC for many months, before taking the deal and stepping aside, but his wife's comments to him in that hot microphone moment may possibly let that cat out of the bag. Where would the Bernie-ites be then? Jilted idealism leads to ... what? Think of the well known stages of loss: 1 Denial-isolation. 2 Anger. 3 Bargaining-negotiation. 4 Depression. 5 Acceptance.

Bernie is at 3. His supporters appear to me to be at 1 and 2.

Now DNC mandarins need to defuse a revolution between the party and a substantial section of it's soon to be ex voters. But you can't negotiate with angry people. Also, negotiating with idealists is extremely difficult.

Enjoy the circus, and try not to become a clown. It's so easy to inadvertently put on the big shoes and red nose. I could be doing it right now with this cycle-sentiment post, but I hope not!

Meanwhile we have a sentiment change in finance too. But it's too early to see. The posts about COT and elevated futures deliveries by Turd F on Main St at TFMR and elsewhere may be early signs of this. If they are, these are not outliers, but the earliest change.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 27, 2016 - 9:56pm
Pete
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Dec Gold daily chart

Past about July 22 the open interest shifts out of August ct into Dec ct. Solid support at expected lines. Good bull market pattern. Note this data uses the 1:30 PM ET Comex settlement for the closing price, and no holidays.

Thu, Jul 28, 2016 - 2:42am
Pete
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Crude oil

Over the month of June, prices could not sustain above the R1 line of the major decline of previous months.

The red daily reversal bar from the first RL, that gave promise of the end of the correction, was itself reversed with a bearish close the next day that has led to a sharper decline in price. This opens the door to a retest of the lows near 27. I'm not saying it is going there, but the door is now open. I think this has given the stock market pause as it is potentially very deflationary. It could crash the stock market. Oil demand was supposed to be strengthening, but the supply glut is "winning." This may be evidence of economic warfare against the US oil and gas industry.

Price is likely to reach the next RL as it has closed beyond the halfway point between the lines.

Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 3:35am
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A little bird whispered in my

A little bird whispered in my ear yesterday that DJIA could move to 28000-38000 within a year. That's a 50-100% move, wow.

I sold my bearish bet yesterday with a minor loss, not for the reason above. I found a new miner to buy with imminent news coming.

Is a fifty to hundred percent move in DJIA crazy talk here or a realistic scenario? No this is not from the RNP webinar, I didn't participate.

O'boy here we go again two police officers shot in San Diego. One thing is for sure, it's crazy times.

Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 4:50am (Reply to #9218)
Solsson
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Solsson wrote: ... DJIA could

Solsson wrote:

... DJIA could move to 28000-38000 within a year.

edit time expired, within two years. I need to adjust my market puzzle here it just doesn't fit anymore.
Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 6:42am
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@Solsson: At the RnP webinar

@Solsson: At the RnP webinar I showed a scenario (for 15-20 years) that includes a massive stock index spike upwards (starting pretty soon) to a level that could not be maintained, and the market actions that would indicate that this scenario had been chosen.

It's the kind of scenario that I would publish here after it started into action, but in RnP prior to that stage, as a trade with a set up that could be looked for.

Separately from that, I also showed indications that a stock market runaway move is due soon, which is a non directional forecast, but uses current price levels to originate from.

The implications are either way, firstly, a significant increase in volatility. Secondly, a directional trigger coming from central bank actions as provoked by a 160 year cycle, of which (approximately) 80, and 40 and 20 year swings have recently finished simultaneously. In response to a question provoked by that I actually went back farther at the webinar and tied it all to an even longer cycle of regularity in societal swings between ruler types and geographical regions. But it's the shorter cycles we want to look at for investment.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Jul 31, 2016 - 1:14pm
Pete
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Crude oil alternate view

Here's another view of crude oil from the Babson perspective. It uses the weekly chart pivots to show an advancing 5 pivot structure. The cl and r lines are very clean--actively "used" by larger traders imo.

Prices in correction often stop at r3 for a significant reversal. Price has also returned to the much-watched 200 dma (not shown), and came very near an rsi(14) of 30.

Bearishly, the latest daily mls are pointing down. With price well below the r1 line, it is often better to wait for a zoom up as confirmation of a turn in progress.

XOM looks to have put in a gap-down, reversal bottom off its daily chart r1 line. It was "precisely" bought at r1. Bullish from here--if the low is not broken.

All FWIW.

Tue, Aug 2, 2016 - 11:10am
Pete
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ES Weekly

I have been waiting and waiting, and maybe we have seen the top. I am long SDS calls. It's a little ironic that the new moon is very near.

 

Tue, Aug 2, 2016 - 1:40pm
Sunnyboy
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Turdville

Just read P4TF's main street piece and was a little saddened I could not comment directly on it. I used to follow Turds stuff of Zerohedge before Turdville and followed him here when he set it up. At the time it felt that we were all learning together and it was great but now with the Vault it feels like 90% of that sharing, learning and teaching is gone, at least for the Public and newbies dipping their feet. My problem with any paid for information is the false sense of security that it gives the subscriber and with that comes a huge risk to his hard earned money. I am glad that Turd is getting it right but it was not always so and he is not the only one.

There a danger on relying on anyone's advice and ideas if you have not done your own homework, if you do not yet have a good understanding of; the different markets, option and delivery cycles, seasonals, fibonachi's, candle stick patterns, risk/reward ratios etc. and most importantly WTFDIK, you should not be trading.

Mostly I really wanted to thank Palin and AM for keeping the free stuff coming and everyone who has ever commented on TFMR for the invaluable rich tapestry of lessons learnt over many years now.

Turd, more freebies please

GLTA

Woof Woof

PS. Pete love your charts, more on gold and silver please, still looking for a good exit point this summer (highly leveraged, well itm but degrading Chinese miner calls due early October)

PPS. Ivars if you are prowling, thanks for your many many charts over many many years

Wed, Aug 3, 2016 - 2:54pm
Pete
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ES 60m Weds

The rally after Tuesday's zoom down day (from the new high) is so far progressing weakly. It has failed to return to the zoomed ml (so far), and has put in a 60m bar reversal at the r1 line of the b wave as shown below. This combination implies immediate resumption of the downtrend as a good possibility. We shall see. 

Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 3:07am
Pete
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Silver 60m

If there's enough volatility with the BLSBS report tomorrow, there could be a very good entry point at/near the daily pivot r1 line. Good standard fair in a bull market.

Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 3:10am
Pete
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ES Thursday PM

Price rose through the micro-pivot r1 line (prior post), passed the zoomed ml, and stopped right on the 60m m3 r1 line of the decline at 2164.25 (the Weds daily high). There is a m1 h-bounce at the new ml, and a second lower top as price chops sideways. Trading around the BLS report at 8:30 AM ET looks to determine the next primary direction of the market. Assuming trading is subdued until then, a break lower could move the market to the ml = 0-4 cl (the second h-bounce pattern objective) and a possible reversal week, while a break higher would probably result in a retest of the week's high. So tomorrow's trade is likely to be important to the larger trend going forward.

Tue, Aug 9, 2016 - 2:08am
Pete
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ES; FWIW dept

Below is Daneric's current preferred wave count for ES. Following that is a geometric projection using two different geometric methods. The two target lines (an RL and WL#4) and the w5 = w1 value cluster in 18 weeks, in December. FWIW.

After 5 is complete, EWT suggests a bear market correction to within the 4th wave of one lesser degree--between a 33 and 71% drop (to the 2009 low), assuming a 2353 high. Historical valuation measures suggest a 50-70% drop.

(It was noticed that the "recent" 3 top was exactly on the 1.618 exR of W4, measuring from 3 top in 2000 to 4 low in 2009.)

Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 3:19am
Pete
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What's a good way to play this?

This chart of S&P's Ag Index concurs with Sep bean oil, etc. Pictured is the first rally and correction (holding at R1) after 5 years of downtrend like gold. Are beans, etc in the early stage of major bull markets? Could be. What's a good way to play this? Any ideas on ETFs with options? If the recent low holds, retest of 340 is next.

Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 7:48am
Solsson
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Bad news

My preferred coin dealer is in big trouble, being shutdown by Swedish authorities:

28 July 2016

We regret to inform that we temporarily do not accept new orders starting 25 July 2016. The reason is that the Swedish tax authority aggressively based on false and fictitious claims try to hinder us from offering our products to our customers. The harassment this company and other bullion related companies are facing from Swedish authorities are unprecedented and unrighteous. We intend to defend ourselves from these false allegations to the fullest extent possible under law.

Background

Liberty Silver OÜ has since its inception in 2011 abided by all rules and regulations with a perfect track record. The company has been subject to several checks, audits and inspections from different government authorities without any remarks whatsoever.

The Estonian tax authority started an audit against Liberty Silver OÜ 27 March 2014. The audit stretched for more than 2 years, which in itself was exhausting for a small company like Liberty Silver OÜ, but the audit did not provide any reason for concern as we know that we meticulously following all rules and regulations.

The tax audit was concluded on 29 March 2016 without any tax changes or remarks whatsoever.

Following the end of the tax audit, it has become apparent that the Estonian tax authority’s audit was conducted, at least partly, based on a request from the Swedish tax authority.

Contention of the Swedish Tax Authority

The Swedish tax authority has through a so called precautionary measure stated that it intends to file a claim in Swedish court against Liberty Silver OÜ contending that Liberty Silver OÜ should be liable for VAT in Sweden on the basis of Liberty Silver OÜ delivering precious metals to customers in Sweden. As all customers to Liberty Silver OÜ are aware, precious metals sold by Liberty Silver OÜ are delivered in Estonia solely. The customer can choose whether to pick up the products in Estonia themselves or instruct a shipping company to pick up the products on the customer’s behalf. It is and has always been a very strict policy for Liberty Silver OÜ to, without any exceptions whatsoever, only deliver products in Estonia.

The VAT claim against Liberty Silver OÜ has not been filed by the Swedish tax authority yet and Liberty Silver OÜ has thus not been given any opportunity to defend or even respond to the VAT claim.

Despite this, the Swedish tax authority has through the use of a so called precautionary measure had the company’s bank accounts frozen. A precautionary measure is a temporary measure that can only be maintained as long as the precautionary measure isn’t revoked or until the Swedish court has ruled on the VAT taxation matter.

Liberty Silver OÜ will Fight for Justice

The basis for the claim of the precautionary measure of temporarily blocking the company’s bank accounts as filed in court by the Swedish tax authority, which the company was also not allowed to defend before it was carried out, is absolutely horrendous in terms of incorrect, false and directly made up allegations against the company.

Liberty Silver OÜ will fight these outrageous allegations both by appealing the precautionary measure and defend the VAT tax claim. We are confident that we will succeed in defending ourselves from the allegations.

In the meantime, we regret that we cannot take orders and kindly ask for your patience.

Whether this is a concerted effort from Swedish authorities to try to shut down precious metals dealers, we leave up to the reader to form an opinion about. It is however a known fact that Swedish authorities take extremely aggressive actions seeking to hinder the operation of precious metals dealers seemingly not caring about whether their allegations are lawfully fact-based or fictitiously made up.

Kind Regards
Liberty Silver OÜ

Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 7:57am
Solsson
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Good news

I just love these charts, makes me feel very calm and comfortable yes looking at my explorers there are many up waves to come before a major correction imo.

Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 9:21am (Reply to #9230)
eclectic
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Good news......

Solsson, can you tell us the chart source? Tks in advance.

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