Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Aug 4, 2016 - 7:42pm
padme
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Readings

I am reading Avi Gilburt -the elliot wave guy quite a bit lately, he calls for the Gold/Silver/Miner complex higher this year, and early next year there will be a dip back to about where we are right now as another good buying opportunity. He gives 25% chance this rally is a counter trend rally, and it CAN make lower low compared to the low put in place early this year. 75% chance we are done with bear market.

Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 3:30am (Reply to #41205)
forever20
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Sawbridgeworth
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looking in from the outside >tonym9

the presidential choice you have seems to me to be picking the less bad option. As you say ' Trump scares the hell out of me, Hillary even more....'

perversely the democrat option seems more in the pocket of wall street than Trump? can that be right?

I'm reading 'The crash of 2016' by Thom Hartmann which is a great read. He's bashing $GS which fits with the opinion Ive reached about the nasty stuff they get up to and how the elites have all been through the GS school of how to line their own pockets at the expense of the population and/or nations. Greece being a prime example. 

(1 Londoner looking across the pond, recent happy joiner of turdville)

Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 7:53am
erewenguy
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GA
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jnug

Just been sitting in JNUG for a while. I know decay can work against a person, but I'm ok with my position for now. Somewhere along the way I lost the temperament for short term trades. I've tried to adopt the be right sit tight attitude, although I keep an eye on what short term traders are thinking for entry/exit points as needed.

Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 8:11am
tonym9
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Padme: Avi's calls have been

Padme: Avi's calls have been spot on. I've read him for a few years from a distance when I would see something he posted....elliott wave is a bit of a handfull mixed with his fib pin. I also like to watch Ira Epstein on his free metals video....he's a good tech check against my charts. TF for macro view. Just recently started paying very close attention to all 3...combined they are a good backstop to my charts and views...have learned from all 3.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 8:40am
tonym9
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So, cleared my head a bit and

So, cleared my head a bit and am now positioned for NFP

1. Took a DUST position at 4.85 in premarket

2. DUST sell order at 5.35...I'm ready to hit the sell button if it goes the other way. 

3. Stink bid on NUGT at 155

Im going with the premise that NFP will have to be 'in line' with expectations...they cant juice it too much after last month's number, nor will they allow it to be negative for the political calendar. It should be just right...there is no science to this, it's a WAG. Logic should say a good or in line NFP report should drop gold. If this plays to my hand I will be positioned for the macro gold/gdx up move while catching the micro gold/gdx down move I've been waiting on. 

I do not advise this for anyone...it's a high risk play and can result in a DUST hit and opportunity cost loss on NUGT since either way after this I will buy NUGT for the August run I feel is coming in GLD/GDX/NUGT. 

GLTA. If you are playing this morning post your pregame trade thoughts....

EDIT: wow, volume spike in DUST while I was typing and it is now at 4.80/4.82 B/A....we shall see...

EDIT: DUST volume is picking up fast and it's bid up to 4.90/4.91 B/A, over 300,000. NUGT is down to 169.52/170.44 from 173land earlier with only 16500 shares so far. 

------------

Trade Report:

1. sold 4.85 DUST at 5.10

2. bought NUGT 161.18 for a hold position....may go a little underwater on it today but am playing for a week or two on this position. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 10:00am
tonym9
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I'll be damn....did it again.

I'll be damn....did it again. Did my homework, then bailed before my numbers came up. EMOTION/FEAR of getting burned by DUST and left behind by NUGT on a snap back. Left .25 per share on the table in DUST and entered NUGT $8 too early. Oh well, still made money on the daily net and now I'm at a comfortable level in NUGT. But I did catch close to the low on some yellow pamps at $14.99 over. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 11:54am
tonym9
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okay...looks like USD/JPY is

okay...looks like USD/JPY is done and will begin the gentle downslope. NUGT has stabilized around mid 150s. Im a little underwater being in at 161.18 but am happy with it. Might be a bit of a correction to come, but will ride it out. Plan is to hold. 

taking the family to south padre island, booked a condo with glass walls and a killer view of the gulf. scheduled it 2 months ago...had no idea how badly i'd need it this week. nothing like a 6 hour drive to let my mind unwind and the stress flow off. hopefully Earl stirs up the gulf enough to get more than ankle biters...surfboards are loaded. 

post your trades/ideas, we're at what I believe is the turn up to 1400+ and possible 1500 by end of sept. i wanted to take on some miners here, but not positioned well enough for using house money to buy/hold/forget....so NUGT it is. 

GLTA....i'm out

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Aug 5, 2016 - 8:52pm
Pick 52
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MIcron

MU has a pretty nice set up

Sat, Aug 6, 2016 - 7:27pm
hhesse
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leverage in miners?

pslv down 3.2%

sil down 2.2%

slw down 1.2%

Mon, Aug 8, 2016 - 2:35pm
tonym9
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went ahead and sold my

went ahead and sold my 161.18 NUGT at 161.73 as I don't like the chart action. will reset tomorrow. it was too high of an entry anyway. original plan was to sit on it for a few weeks, but i'm pretty sure i can get a better entry to sit on. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Aug 10, 2016 - 3:44pm
Island Teal
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GDXJ and AG calls

anybody taking any new positions ?

Thu, Aug 11, 2016 - 11:09am (Reply to #41217)
forever20
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Sawbridgeworth
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not new position, staying as is for now. @islandteal

watching tho

Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 8:49am
tonym9
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in GPL at 1.46 for a hold,

in GPL at 1.46 for a hold, 1.30 stop. Also in EXK at 5.55 for a rental, will sell today...LSO at 5.70 but will prolly not get it so may go out at 5.60's

bought and sold EGO, NSU, AGK last week for small/quick hits that didn't need babysitting...along with a limited run of NUGT/DUST plays. I prefer the x3's...I'd rather trade in/out and get flat than just sit and watch....AND THAT IS NOT A GOOD THING.

The GPL position is more for me to have (develop) patience and let the trade play out than anything else. 

Also have added some yellow/white on sales with dips/low prem where can find.

With NUGT/DUST/GDX, currently no positions in them but am looking for a potential entry on NUGT pending GDX holding 31 land...if GDX dips to 30 will consider DUST. 

morning trax as of 745am cst: 

per cnbc

gold: 1344

silver: 19.83

copper: 2.1465

wti: 44.71

usd/jpy: 101.14 (up from 100.90s this morn)

UST 10 yr: 1.5321

UST 30 yr: 2.2536

per scottrade b/a premarket:

DUST: 4.88/4.90 (391973 traded)

NUGT: 167.23/168.02 (60746 traded)

GDX: 31.08/31.09 (614894 traded)

GPL: 1.45/1.50 (0 traded)

EXK: 5.61/5.62 (2500 shares traded)

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Aug 15, 2016 - 9:34pm
tonym9
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did both dust/nugt today,

did both dust/nugt today, sold exk...also sold gpl, expecting to be able to get back in at a lower number. 

holding a small nugt position overnight

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Aug 16, 2016 - 6:32am
tonym9
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mornin trax as of 530am

mornin trax as of 530am cst

per cnbc:

gold: 1356.90

silver: 20.045

copper: 2.176

wti: 45.93

ust 10 yr: 1.5254

ust 30 yr: 2.2507

usd/jpy: 100.01

b/a per scottrade:

nugt: 171.11/171.99

dust: 4.75/4.77

gdx: 31.36/31.40

I added to my nugt overnight hold, avrg dca is now 168.94....loving the look of usd/jpy but wary of a pullback with all the data due out 

PAY ATTN and USE STOPS!!!!

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Aug 16, 2016 - 1:52pm
Island Teal
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AG MUX NEM positions

Ive got some cash to move into new long positions.

Was going to split between AG, MUX and NEM.

Staying away from ABX.

Any comments or ??

Tue, Aug 16, 2016 - 9:31pm (Reply to #41222)
pontiac
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Teal

I own AG and it is correcting from all of the hype (a cult favorite), so it is very close to an entry point. I owned MUX for a long time, but no longer follow it. For silver, I suggest you look at FSM.

In gold stay away from the big caps like NEM. If you must, HL is superior. I prefer the mid cap producers instead: BTG and EDVMF (edv.to)., AGI is on sale due to recent $5 stock offering. If gold continues to rise they will out perform dramatically.

Thu, Aug 18, 2016 - 1:08pm (Reply to #41223)
pontiac
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Interesting web site

https://didthesystemcollapse.com/

Is showing silver 54 cents higher on the Shanghai Exchange than the comex. It has moved in recent months from a premium of 14 cents to the 50's or 2.7%. Demand must be picking up in China in spite of the price suppression here.

Fri, Aug 19, 2016 - 3:39pm
madcow
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AMD

AMD finally made a real move touching 8$ today, my limit was before that but i was able to sell half shares and now riding the other half for free..... prolly back down to under 4$ where ill buy more and wait a few more years.

SVM is also a constant winner for me, tho it changed to LF which is making it more annoying to sell (not in a rush right atm)

With general elections coming soon it will be interesting to see how all my mary jane picks play out, assuming more states legalize. (atm they are all a huge wash)

Sun, Aug 21, 2016 - 11:17pm
Urban Roman
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Jollyville
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Silver

Looks like silver is testing support at 19. Or a little less. Squishy support.

How low will it go?

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