The New TA

I don’t mean technical analysis.

  1. Have you ever sworn off trading, but only lasted for a couple of days?
  2. Have you ever slammed your fist on your desk when you get stopped out, or just miss filling your order by one penny?
  3. Do you believe you can stop trading any time you want, even though you keep losing?
  4. Have you ever switched from stocks to options or futures figuring that would end your losing streak?
  5. Do you envy people who make money trading?
  6. Has your trading caused trouble at home?
  7. Have you ever felt that you would be better off today if had not started trading?

If you answer yes to one or more of these questions, you may need to slow down and rethink your life. You just may be a …Trade-a-holic!

Personally, these questions are little uncomfortable for me to answer. To help people like you, and me, I am kicking off a new service called Tradeaholics Anonymous. This is the new TA. But prior to explaining my new service, I’ll tell you a story.

The other night after work, sitting in my man-cave, I looked at the charts and started wondering whether or not gold hit a bottom and turned upwards. I read Craig’s post for the day, which brought things into focus for me, and I thought indeed it turned and started upward. Next I took a look at JNUG– a 3X bullish ETF I like to trade – and I just watched it for about 30 minutes and then decided to put in a stink bid. I didn't get a fill.  I expected a pull-back at the open that might be a good entry point. The next morning I placed a rather stinky stink bid. And about five minutes before the opening bell, watching the ETF move towards my bid, a higher power took hold of me.

I slid that mouse over and canceled my order.

Next, I went downstairs and made some coffee. I came upstairs an hour later looked at the charts and saw that my bid would have been filled and the ETF was moving higher… then lower, then higher.  If I had set a trailing stop I might’ve been washed out with a small gain, but with a stop loss below my bid, things wouldabeen rosy, and absolutely smokin' the next day.

But I didn't feel like I missed out on anything. In fact I haven’t made a trade all week.

I decided to rethink my trading.

I have spent a lot of time trading over the past several years with very little to show for it except some most excellent tax deductions. And now I stand up and publicly say…

My name is Jerome, and I am a Trade-aholic.

Worse yet, I have failed as a trader.

I define “failed at trading” as “I am not making $50 for every hour I spend staring at the screen making trades.” So in my case, even in years where I broke even, or profited, I must admit that I have failed. If you feel the same way, this service just might be for you. Since I’m a person who likes to share what I have with others, the service is free. In fact you don’t even need to sign up. Just simply follow the simple five-step plan that I provide below. It’s easy.

The Service

  1. Close your trading account.
  2. With some of that leftover fiat, buy gifts for the loved ones in your life.
  3. Tell your loved ones, “I’m sorry.”
  4. Use the rest to buy silver and gold. Now is a good time.
  5. Save up your fiat, and only buy more silver and gold when Turd calls a bottom, and invest the rest of it with a plan, and phronesis.*

Now that we know what the problem is, and we know how to fix it, we still have a need to make good use of our time earning fiat. We don’t have to stop investing, but we really should stop handing our money over to the banksters via risky, ill-considered trades, motivated by greed, desperation, or the quest for that elusive 10-bagger. Hanging up our day-trader hats and simply thinking of ourselves as investors may be the right step for many. I know there are many preppers here who do not day-trade, may be tempted to start, and might find it quite unprofitable if they did try. There are other ways to make fiat to move you closer to your goals.

If you read between the lines of this post, I hope you can see that changes Craig discussed in his February 12 article have me rattled as it brought some things into focus. Not that I believe the Keynesian collapse is upon us, but the reality of its inevitable arrival has been re-stamped on my brain. When I was first awakened in 2010, I realized that I was deeply in debt with little equity and even less cash and savings. Our response was to buy silver and gold ($40-ish silver and $1700 gold) with all incoming fiat we could spare, and to purchase & store emergency supplies for the collapse, which I just knew was going to arrive any day, and certainly by 2013.

A comment back on our February 13 thread really got me to thinking: Our good friend Smkmjk2001 said, “If setups like those that currently exist in the metals fail to produce significant gains/progress, I fail to see what will.” And Streber added a concise summary of the reasons why, suggesting a redoubled effort by banks that leads the average investor to conclude, “Look Homer, PMs are still a bad investment.”

I, for one, am not complaining anymore about the low price of metals. I suspect that when the metals finally see the gains that we're hoping for, we will not have an economy with a viable metals market enabling us to pay off a house, or purchase a dream prepper property. So let’s do what two thirds of the world is doing: Thank God for low metal prices, keep stacking, and invest wisely. Our day will come, but I am in no hurry to see it.

I’m not going to predict the end anymore. The reflation of real estate has been good to my family, altering the focus of our future plans. As we endeavor to acquire a debt free property where we can grow & raise our own food long-term (if need be), we shall continue to stack. But today I favor silver coins that can serve as money rather than 100 ounce bars for investing. Instead, I want to invest in soil, water, solar power, distance from cities, security, housing, and trustworthy neighbors. These are items I will deeply appreciate whether or not the collapse occurs before I finish my days on this earth.

I admire the savvy traders that participate in this blog and wish you continued success in your future trading. Make fiat and keep taking metals out of this market. I will cheer you on, but I can’t keep up with you. We all have differing abilities and skill sets. If trading isn’t going bring the fiat that will fully enable the desired lifestyle change, we need to find another way.

Let’s use the days wisely to profit as we can to change our lifestyle.

Most of us who have failed at trading should simply look for another venture by which you can profit—preferably a venture where the rules are simple, the business is straightforward, and Wall Street banks are not manipulating its market daily.

I certainly plan to keep stacking. But since I have this retirement fund with my employer I need to put that somewhere that will provide me a decent return. I plan to invest (not day-trade) in something that is bullish with metals without leverage. At this point, I’ll simply purchase shares of GLD when Craig says we are lookin’ bullish, and cash out when the COT report starts to look bearish... and I am all ears for other suggestions.

So putting all of the trade-aholic losses behind us with the 2017 tax return that I’m working on, my wife and I are having fun with a new venture.

In the past year we have purchased several RV travel trailers and sold them. My wife set up an automated Craigslist email sent to us each time somebody lists a travel trailer or RV for sale within a set price range. When we see something we like, we move fast, driving over to take a look with our cash in hand, prepared to make the deal. We pull the trailer home, clean it up, repair a few things if we have time, and list it for sale. We typically drive to one of two large cities to buy trailers where people are desperate to get some cash. We live in a tourist area in central Arizona where these sorts of things sell for a higher price. (AKA: arbitrage) So far so good. We average 1K in profit on the deals. We broke even on one. No losses. Our little venture only requires a truck that can pull the trailer and a place to park it. And we enjoy the thrill of the hunt, the adventure of traveling to another city, a nice lunch or dinner, stopping to see relatives.

Our venture has been more profitable than my trading, and the time spent is moving us toward our long-term goals of that country property. It continuously provides us with a travel trailer for vacations and even a backup bedroom if one of our kids needed to move home--not to mention an extra place to stay if a friend or relative is in dire straits. Low risk, modest reward.

I suggest you to find a way to earn extra fiat and put it to good use, whether you stack, prep or invest part of it. I’m sure we would all love to hear entrepreneurial ideas that some of you are engaging in. Entrepreneurship, in my view, is going to be a wise career choice in the future, perhaps one of the only choices.

So I am swearing-off day-trading & swing-trading (mostly) and taking up entrepreneurship and longer term investing. … Really, I mean it!

After this decision, a very good friend and trading accomplice called me yesterday to tell me about a new trading service he found (actually, they cold-called him). Just a mere 5K for their trading class and they guarantee $200 per day profit if you load your account with 10K and follow their formula. Told him "I better pass." And my service is cheaper!

Happy stacking… Caress your metals often, and may your preparations be wise and effective.  

* Phronesis: A Greek philosophical term meaning "wisdom in determining ends and the means of attaining them."

41 Comments

infometron's picture

NW VIEW

silver66's picture

the gold chart on the tf front page

looks like an EKG this morning

Family Day here in ontario today

believe it or not most of  family is home and will be enjoying with them

silver66

chrtoo's picture

Family Day.

I was baking chocolate chips cookies, yesterday, in anticipation of Family Day. Shortly I will be taking a couple of these cookies over to my Mom when I visit; only fair as it is her cookie recipe that I use!  Mom will 99 years young in June!

Family, that is who we do it all for. Give yours a hug, today, even if its virtual.

CHR.

NW VIEW's picture

A bit of a morning rant in the NW!

Yes, the students will have a walk out and a march on Washington D.C., being tired of the murders within their schools. I remember the college students, protesting the war in Vietnam, and even the deaths at Kent State. Where are all of the protest marches over our multiple foreign wars? Where are the marches when the Q.E. robbery program began, restoring the wealth to the banksters while robbing the middle class, including grandma, of the retirement savings, paying .1% interest on savings accounts? 

Where were the high school protesters when the abortion laws were past, killing millions of students who never even saw the light of day? Students who did not live long enough to enter the doors of our educational system. Where were to protests when the perverts and degenerates entered ever aspect of their education, the bible being replaced with witchcraft, Christian students being persecuted and Muslims students being given their private rooms for prayer? Where were the national protest when all forms of discipline were removed from our schools?   Where were the protests when all forms of moral living were cast out like a dirty shirt, leaving our students without any direction in life. 

Now, the students will have their marches, a real movement, too little and too late.  The home life has suffered shipwreck, the schools are filled with all forms of drugs, even from their doctors, and they think the blinded government can do something to fix the problems.  A waste of time and will be fruitless within the schools. 

Train up your own family, teaching them the Truth, or we will just have more Snowflakes, being taught by teachers who have long ago lost their way.  jmo    Jim

abundance's picture

a question I buy junk silver

I just say how much and he gives me dimes or quarters..

does it matter ..is one 'better' than the other? (dimes or quarters)

Dr Jerome's picture

Abundance

I've always figured that if our economy is forced to turn to gold and silver as money, the dime will be an excellent denomination for most of our small purchases, and a few quarters might buy our groceries for the week. I stack both and keep them in tubes so they're easy to count.

abundance's picture

thanks Dr Jerome...was thinking of getting extra

to put aside for sons and siblings and a couple of friends as thank yous.

Will continue with both.

RickshawETF's picture

@ abundance

I think you have to look ahead to when/where/why you may "need" that junk silver.

If we end up in a SHTF scenario, like Venezuela, you will probably use that junk silver to barter for goods and food.  If it gets really bad, and silver is at $600 per ounce, for example, each dime will be worth $42.90 ($100 face is 1,000 dimes -- at 71.5 oz. of silver per $100 bag, that's $600 X 71.5 /1,000 = $42.90).  Having only quarters will be like carrying only $100 bills in your wallet -- not everyone will be able to "make change" . . .

DPMS308's picture

@Abundance Junk

I like Mercury dimes because it takes the question of silver content out of the equation and explaining the significance of 1964 of Roosies or having to the check year on every Roosie if that what our world comes to in the future.

The LCS usually hands me the whole ammo can so with quarters I pick through them to find pre-1960 quarters in good shape.

There is a higher premium for half dollars but when I buy them I go with walkers first then Franklins.  Even though Kennedy's are usually in much better shape I avoid them because of the silver content depending on the year.

I have equal amounts of of dimes, quarters, and half dollars.  This isn't by choice but rather supply and demand.  I get paid every two weeks so I buy whatever is available when I am there and what partial tubes I need to top off.

abundance's picture

thanks rickshaw...will ask for dimes as I have

quite quarters. 

Markedtofuture's picture

Climate Change Conspiracy Against us All

Posted Feb 20, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

800,000-year Ice-Core Records of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

QUESTION: Are you saying that CO2 is not a pollutant and we should not be concerned about rising levels?

OD

ANSWER: Correct. CO2 levels have been much higher than currently over the millennia. The Global Warming crowd has an agenda and the core of that is to reduce the population. They remain influenced by the Malthus theory and have been hell-bent on stopping population growth.

Over the past 100 million years, we have been in a decline in CO2 level dropping from 500 ppm to 200 ppm with an average of about 300 ppm. They refuse to address any of the historical evidence no less the cycle of life itself.

Humans exhale typically consists of 40,000 ppm to even 50,000 ppm of CO2. Should we be fined or extinguished because we are a major contributor to COs levels? Those who are demonizing CO2 as a “pollutant” fail to explain that in a room filled with people CO2 levels can commonly reach 2000 ppm with no apparent ill effects. Even the US Navy sets its limit for CO2 in submarines at 5000 ppm to avoid any measurable effect on sailors. NASA also sets similar limits for humans in spacecraft at the same basic level. So obviously, 300 ppm is not dangerous.

If you measure CO2 level where crops are growing or in a rain forest, they drop drastically because the plants suck it up for that is what they thrive on to live. If you want to lower CO2, then plant more crops and trees.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) had predicted that we would run out of food which started this entire theory about curtailing population growth that is really behind the whole Global Warming movement. In his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus observed that an increase in a nation’s food production improved the well-being of the populace. However, the improvement was temporary because it led to population growth, which in turn restored the original per capita production level.

In other words, mankind had a propensity to utilize food abundance for population growth rather than for maintaining a high standard of living, Malthus saw this as the doom of humanity.

The flaw in Malthus’ work is the same in the Global Warming crowd. They are completely ignorant of a cycle and take whatever trend they see and project that it will linearly continue to the end. Thus, is the stock market has risen for the past 8 years, then it must always only go up and never down. This is the analysis of the Global Warming conspiracy.

Food Supply & Population

There have been countless investigations into the food supply and the population growth of animals. What has been revealed is that as food supply declines, so does the birth rate. Malthus’ observation that an increase in food supply led to an increase in population was correct, but only one side of the cycle. The birth rates is now declining because, in part, as taxes rise, they have also lowered the standard of living reducing the population. Malthus failed to see the cycle.

The Global Warming crowd ignores the fact that CO2 levels used to be measured in thousands of ppm instead of hundreds historically. In fact, the temperature does not even correlate very well with CO2 levels. During ice ages in the Ordovician period, some 450 million years ago, when the CO2 levels were several thousand of ppm, this did not result in temperatures 10 times greater than today.

Welcome to the Global Warming / Climate Change Conspiracy which is all about reducing the population growth. They can pass laws and reduce population in the industrialized world, but then this does not curtail the developing world who will then invade as we have seen in Europe.

  •  P.C. Quinton and K.G. MacLeod, “Oxygen isotopes from conodont apatite of the midcontinent US: Implications for Late Ordovician climate evolution,” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2014, 404: 57–66.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/climate-change-conspiracy-against-us-all/

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