The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 3:12pm
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Understanding of cycles

Understanding of cycles demands a detached, non-emotional point from which "things" are observed. Often there must also be a moment of introspection, looking for gut reaction, a triggered response. You see that triggered response might just transfer your money, via bad investments, into the hands of another. So the introspection must be honest in self examination. After a while you start to feel your strings being tugged by ... something or someone somewhere.

You do not want to play their game by their rules on their turf.

No way - if you wish to retain your money and financial freedom.

So this week we have something happening. A cycle arrives, and nobody here knows precisely what that means, but you know it arrived because I let you know of this.

And about the same time, among the usual cluster of cycle synchronized events - a terrorist disaster happens in France.

So there is a choice. You can react like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwp4znSQ3WM

or not react yet, but before reacting, learn a little more about this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu4OurRELGs

If you are not presently of time to watch several videos (there are 10), I suggest watching the top link, the reflexive reaction - the triggered response which takes just 5 minutes. But you'll get the point by half way.

Then learn about THE SHOCK DOCTRINE, The Rise of Disaster Capitalism by Naomi Klein. Summary of the book HERE.

Here is the associated website : https://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine

Of course, when I tried to go to the above link I got a warning screen about the safety of visiting this website. Always a good sign if you have a curious enquiring mind. i went there anyway and my computer didn't explode or die, but I got to read stuff like this:

Exposing the thinking, the money trail and the puppet strings behind the world-changing crises and wars of the last four decades, The Shock Doctrine is the gripping story of how America’s “free market” policies have come to dominate the world-- through the exploitation of disaster-shocked people and countries.

At the most chaotic juncture in Iraq’s civil war, a new law is unveiled that would allow Shell and BP to claim the country’s vast oil reserves…. Immediately following September 11, the Bush Administration quietly out-sources the running of the “War on Terror” to Halliburton and Blackwater…. After a tsunami wipes out the coasts of Southeast Asia, the pristine beaches are auctioned off to tourist resorts.... New Orleans’s residents, scattered from Hurricane Katrina, discover that their public housing, hospitals and schools will never be reopened…....

These events are examples of “the shock doctrine”: using the public’s disorientation following massive collective shocks – wars, terrorist attacks, or natural disasters -- to achieve control by imposing economic shock therapy......

The book traces its origins back fifty years, to the University of Chicago under Milton Friedman, which produced many of the leading neo-conservative and neo-liberal thinkers whose influence is still profound in Washington today. New, surprising connections are drawn between economic policy, “shock and awe” warfare and covert CIA-funded experiments in electroshock and sensory deprivation in the 1950s, research that helped write the torture manuals used today in Guantanamo Bay.......

Interesting.

So how detached are you when you experience shock and disaster? Are you led? No? Ok then: Do you react contrary to direction of being lead and oppose-fight the first motivation? If either is true, you have just been recruited by someone, something. Now you are a puppet. A tool of one of two "sides" in their nasty game. you are "their" asset action independently, but doing "their" work. Your money, if you trade, is toast, you just don't know it yet.

Today I see news like these items:

Nice attack forces London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan to review ‘safety measures’

French Unity Cracks as Opposition Slams Nice Security Response

... when a prisoner goes into shock, they go into regression, and a window opens. They may form a bond and place trust in their interrogator .....

...... Milton Friedman mentioned the phrase "economic shock" in letters to Pinochet .....

So what if a society is put into shock? Will they do or accept things they will regret later? How many shocks are required if the society is resilient? How many sock and awe attacks will do the job? Will a spontaneous disaster, fire or other shock work as well? What is the purpose? Who will get what they want?

How can I avoid being played and trade the fresh bubble about to be created?

Wait ... what bubble? Well I mean the reaction taxation-spending bubble.

A despicable way to think? Really? Only if you just got emotional. If you are in the markets, there is no "right" side. It's go long or short or do nothing. You are evaluating, calculating, who will win, who will lose, and why, and what to do about that.

This is nothing new. Peace is a threat to certain ... investments ...

Be detached.

Let the fear go. While you are letting it go, identify where it come from. Who it came from.

Avoid falling for the "either with us or against us" tactic to eliminate opposition to the scheme. Cast aside the "you aren't courageous and brave" patriotic jingoistic recruitment tactic. Those are cheap tricks intended to subvert the ignorant and bully their minds away from a middle way, a balanced and direct other response to the shock stimulus from those provided for discussion.

Now you should see those who play you with that "fear reaction string" for who and what they really are.

When I am trading, I get excited, my pulse speeds up and I get an andrenalin hit - but that rings an inner alarm. When the inner alarm goes off I pull myself together, calm myself, calm my body, imagine I am a spider watching my web, and wait for the trade to come to me and catch itself. That a pretty unemotional attitude. It's necessary to make money trading. You need a totally independent attitude to trade.

Of course it would be better to not have the reaction. No rewarding bubble for the insiders. You need a resilient society for that. Evaluate the resilience of your society and be realistic, not emotive, in your trades. And try to show your friends how it works. Remember to be gentle with people. Reasonable and understated rather than pushy. As I try to be here. People need time to adjust their worldview.

And my deepest sympathy goes out to the victims and their families for this atrocity.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 3:33pm
Dirt_Reynolds
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Inner will, or even having any?

"Let the fear go. While you are letting it go, identify where it come from. Who it came from."

It only ever comes from me. Breathing is fear's caveat.

"Reasonable and understated" Outstanding sir, thank you.

You brought back 1984 (not the book the actual year) for me. Thanks.

Just lucky that way...
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 3:55pm (Reply to #9192)
Mr. Fix
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A most excellent post, argentus maximus...

I have often questioned my own lack of emotional response to the global carnage we are witnessing.

My wife thinks I've become completely psychopathic, as events that trigger huge emotional reactions in most people, are just taken in stride.

In my opinion, I find I am quite emotional, and occasionally terrified at the progress of the globalists are making.

The only thing that comforts me, is how predictable it is, knowing who the players are, their tried and true strategies, and knowing full well where they are attempting to take this. Although I don't trade, I still need to face each day with a relatively positive outlook. I know that they intend to keep us in fear, and I refuse to play their game.

Thank you for your insights, they are incredibly valuable, even for us non-traders, and people who just stack and prepare.

One could argue that I may be overprepared, but it sits better in my gut than leaving myself wide open to being blindsided.

I think proper preparation also takes a lot of the emotional charge out of the daily news cycles.

Thank you for dropping in on DOTS to share your wisdom.

I will be taking a look at the "shock doctrine" videos tonight at bedtime. yes

"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear."
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 3:58pm (Reply to #9194)
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... the daily news cycles

... the daily news cycles ....

I wonder what would be found if somebody tested the blood pressure of 1000 people before and after watching the televised news.

Actually I already know, but it would be nice to have proven research to point the eyes of the innocent to look towards!

Thanks for your kind comments. I do the best I can. smiley

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 6:21pm
Solsson
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A horrible event in Nice

A horrible event in Nice yesterday. I didn't watch the news in the morning so I was a little bit behind.

Followed by a military coup in Turkey, that should be interesting to follow later and yes I did trade today, but the only string pulled was a sentence by argentus maximus, "maybe the high is in" my only response to my trading emotions is greed. 

I am sorry to say that I feel a little bit numb about all the terrible events that occur around the world right now, it's just too much to take in at the moment.

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 2:13am
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Military coup seems to have

Military coup seems to have failed. Maybe it was a faked one by the dictator Erdogan in order to strengthen power and gain even more control ? 

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 1:37pm (Reply to #9194)
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Shock Doctrine

For those into "The Shock Doctrine", there's also a documentary version:

https://youtu.be/550p455dfM4?list=PL1DE69769369B7089

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Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 7:54pm
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Weekly Gold

Gold made a weekly pivot high 2 weeks ago at a very strong combination of resistance lines and declined most of last week. Above the ml from p2 it remains in a stronger position. Very strong support emerges at various possible levels. The strongest and most critical support angle is the 0-4 line. Below the 0-4 is the Initial ML, which supported price at p4 (making the IML very strong). If the 0-4 and IML break on a deflationary wave, most probably with a stock market crash (as in 2008), look for a rapid decline with support at the R1 line below 1200.

Areas where lines cross important Fibonacci resistance levels are especially strong.

Remember that gold has rallied well beyond the latest R1 line, the first time in 4+ years. This argues strongly that the bear market ended in December 2015. Thus, any weekly pivot low at resistances shown is a good buying opportunity.

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 8:41pm (Reply to #9194)
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All one needs to do is to

All one needs to do is to read the book of revelation and certain sections of Matthew to find out where this world is heading. There are many other references in the bible throughout the New and old Testament that reference last days. All the gold and silver, guns, ammo food won't save us from the pain and suffering that lies ahead if one doesn't know the Lord Jesus Christ. The apostle Paul had nothing and relied totally on the Holy Spirit for guidance. The times ahead look a lot like the times is the book of acts. I just got saved 1.5 years ago and is the greatest choice I've ever made. Im not saying let's not be prepared but if our hearts are not in the right place we will be deceived. The ideas in this thread are amazing and come from great people which makes this community great. I got banned a few years ago for stupid comments I made but continued to read right from the beginning. If you don't know the truth I strongly advise you all to get to know the lord and allow him to transform your life. There is an evil supernatural power that rules this world and this world is going to hell with it. I've discover the only truth in this world; 

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.

John 1:1 KJV

I hope I've stirred the spirit in at least one of you, unsaved or even asleep. I wish you all well in the troubled times ahead. God bless you all and I hope we can all be on the right side of the last and ultimate trade; we will ultimately choose between this world or the kingdom of God. 

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 8:59pm
Pete
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EP target lines

The expanded pivot formation (EP or EPF) often results in a strong counter-trend move. The final pivot in the formation tends to occur at/near one of 3 lines derived from the earlier pivots in the formation. See the chart below of weekly ES for these lines. Use a smaller timeframe chart to confirm the turn at the target line.

Gold has confirmed a weekly p5 in an EP, so we need to be alert to a potentially strong counter-trend move. For this reason, some long put insurance, via GLD, was a good thought to consider.

ES closed lower on Friday after reaching the 0-4 projection line from p3 on Thursday. The projection line is parallel to the 0-4 line. The p0 is the origin of the swing considered.

Sun, Jul 17, 2016 - 2:59am
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From actingman:

From acting-man.com

So from this comparison bull market will last approximately another 8 years, as 1976 trend peaked in 1980.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Jul 17, 2016 - 6:22am
Solsson
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Great to see the thread is on

Great to see the thread is on fire again yes

Remember this guy, Things that make you go hmmm ...

Crazy - A Story of Debt, by Grant Williams

This is a story about debt – 2008 was the crystallization of that, the years since have been the denial of it, and the years to come will be the resolution. Grant Williams, founder & publisher of the ‘Things That Make You Go Hmmm...’ research service, and co-founder of Real Vision TV, brings us an eye-opening presentation titled Crazy, where he puts into perspective the extraordinary levels of global debt and unprecedented monetary policy, and reminds us that the many factors that led to the ‘08 crisis are still very much present.

Video unavailable
Sun, Jul 17, 2016 - 1:54pm
Solsson
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Solsson congratulates Stenson

Solsson congratulates Stenson for his first, Swedens first and Scandinavias first male Major win in golf smiley

an epic battle with the genius from US, Phil Mickelson. The lowest winner score ever, beating legendary Tiger Woods by one shot. Some good news is great for a change heart 

Mon, Jul 18, 2016 - 7:25am
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V peaks today Monday,

V peaks today Monday, plateaus, back up on Thurs 21st July, eases slightly, up significantly on 26-27.

G-V is notable 21st, and peaking 27th July and higher peak on the end of month weekend.

Last week of July 2016 should print price levels which become important across many asset classes when viewed looking back from later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 18, 2016 - 8:07am (Reply to #9205)
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Copied from last nights chat

Copied from last nights chat on the AM Blog:

james-crighton wrote:
.... By the way (I hope you don't mind my asking): what do you think will happen to the PM stocks when the market collapses? .... .
argentus maximus wrote:
on July 17, 2016 - 5:20pm

When it collapses ..... That it will collapse is not a given. Something must happen for that to occur - otherwise it would already be collapsed, right? What if that thing doesn't happen?

Not saying it won't collapse, just pointing out an assumption which implies there is a condition awaiting action.

So how about this: can the market maintain it's current valuation? I do believe there is a way.

Now, will it find that way or not? Depends ..... upon who owns it, in my opinion. You see, I don''t think it will be let collapse unless the right people can be persuaded to own it first.

Until that arrives, or if it doesn't arrive, the market can be made to fluctuate within wide ranging swings during which the insiders front run the masses both up and down. In this way the same value can be abstracted and "given" to some people as if they had sold and the market collapsed.

Which is already going on for quite a while.

The question would then appear to be "If there is a trading range, and the market may collapse, where is the top of the range at which I should be positioned for a downswing which might turn out to be a very big downswing? Or it might not ...extend, but I would still be short and right?"

My answer, which is partial, and surmise, guesswork, and analysis of the past tendencies of the hand on the other side of the gaming table is that the existence of money in retirement funds is the reason for continuance of the game and until it's gone the market won't rise appreciably, and hold that level. Until then all rises, like the current on/the one just seen will be followed by counterswings of varying size. If there is a visible upwards tilt to the "trading range" whatever shape it takes, then that upwards underlying trend is the loss of the value of the money in which the market is priced - long term.

A short answer might be that the range trading could continue for another decade or two. But people might not see a neat rectangular pattern on their charts if they looked for one - it would be more likely irregular, erratic. If the public go in hard at any time it may then crash in short order. If they don't the central banks will print and hold it up for the other ... owners ... of it. In which case it goes net sideways and loses 60% value while doing so over a decade - in purchasing power terms. And they get their money frontrunning the swings through range both ways.

Move - countermove - reaction rather than plan. Their data dependent policy. They're not about to give up yet. Who is long or short matters much. A crash, if it happens could be a retest down, then a crash up into a spike and then a swift counter cash down. That is a scenario I consider quite likely actually.

That was a pretty detailed post, I thought that might be interesting to repost here.

And below are some illustrations to give a better idea about what I meant:

This is monthly Dow. There are a couple of big cycles fighting for dominance at the moment, but victory for any one of them is not yet assured. Thus, in their timescale, the Dow in in the balance waiting to lurch either way and continue that way for quite a bit. Now those are big cycles .....

The answer lies in another timeframe, not shown here. But for readers here is have marked what might be the critical prices that may become technical levels showing which side of support and resistance the Dow is proceeding towards. The prices may be considers what you would see if a horizontal line were drawn towards the right from each of the red "x" s drawn by me on the chart.

Above that zone I would be bullish, and below bearish, for a runaway swing way from the zone. Direction is not considered in the chart shown here, but the positioning of the Dow relative to the levels will confirm what i think I have figured out about the next sizeable move. False breaks and reversals would be instantly followed by reversal of my opinion from eg bullish to bearish and back again. In fact I expect a very vigorous retest to try to get to the other side of the zone by market making entities, to wrongfoot market players.

Trading the breakout halves the profit expectation of a swing, compared to trading the low or high other side of range before the breakout. That's in the hands of a far more powerful cycle than the very large ones shown.

So under the illustrated zone, the crash swing scenario, above it, the blowoff to the upside. They are options, scenarios, not forecasts. There is a trigger to cause selection of them, which may or may not be activated by events. Third, and indeed other scenarios exist in my view, but at this moment these two are a higher probability, and in what might be described as having wangled themselves into a "first and second in the queue" position. Retests and attempts to swing across S&R in this kind of timeframe could take 6 months or so. Big swings take time to set up. Pullback from false breaks would be far faster, a slice across the zone in as little as 6 to 8 weeks.

Not a fancy analog chart .... but clear enough I think to be worth evaluating later. Let's see how it works out over the coming six to nine months.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 19, 2016 - 11:17am
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GLD update

GLD is cruising forwards as forecasted here in Setup.

Forecast (chart dates are week ending date):

How it looks now:

No phase shift to alt scenarios visible at the moment, though it could have happened, next inflection a few weeks away.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 19, 2016 - 2:27pm
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Gold weekly trendline and 0.382 retracement

Sun, Jul 24, 2016 - 12:54pm
Safety Dan
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@ argentus maximus

Do you suggest we contact Greg and tell him to watch August 3rd, 2016?

Market Analyst Forecast: “In The Next Week Or Two We Should See A Significant Move To The Downside”

Mac Slavo
July 23rd, 2016
SHTFplan.com

Greg Mannarino of TradersChoice.net has been keeping a close eye on stock and bond markets. He has been accurately predicting major turning points in these markets for years.

While everyone in the mainstream appears to know that something is seriously amiss with the economy, no one is warning the retail investor, despite the fact that billions of dollars are being shifted out of broader markets and into safe haven assets like gold and silver.

Unless some miracle happens, the next large move for this market is down…

Their bottom line… a lot of these companies are coming in below the mark… but the market is still in this topping phase… the fear/greed index remains at an extreme, so we should not be surprised to see this…

The real tell here will be moving into the next week or two… in the next week or two we should see a significant move… or at least the beginning of a significant move to the downside in this market.

https://investmentwatchblog.com/market-analyst-forecast-in-the-next-week...

Sun, Jul 24, 2016 - 8:49pm (Reply to #9209)
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This is the beginning of the

This is the beginning of the big week (and a bit).

The long term cycle made it's turn as advised here in advance. It's presence has been felt everywhere. Did any other cycle analysts advise of that prior or since? We have seen one "claw" of the turn make it's impact. This one has many claws.

Since then, and within hours, there have taken place military-government manouevers on European soil in Turkey, "reprisal" arrests by the thousands, raised military efforts in Ukraine, events characterized as terrorist attacks in various places where for some reason the heroic actions of private motorcycling citizens were not reported all that much instead the need for protection by armed gov forces blasted from high places with fanfare of media, but a photographic error seems to have been made by Gladio style event organizers. Wikileaks have released thousands of documents displaying corruption in high office. The clock ticks faster at these times it seems and the world changes at that accellerated rate.

What comes from the far east? Things reported there seem rather quiet. But under the covers - frantic activity. How's the Nikkei these days? Breadth holding up in US stocks? Margin debt up or down? Hedgie masters talking their book or quiet which they manage chaos this week? Can't talk book while outcome is 50:50. No gain to be had from the talking!

Canvassing for acceptance of disliked decisions continues unabated, and I'm not talking about the US Presidency election.

Are you ready for the impact of high up decisions implementing extraordinary and unusual policy made in haste and under pressure? Because, the music just started. The next G-Vs and market events will have lasting power in my opinion. The build up can be easily seen at the passing of recent G-V dates.

Monday 25th July is webinar day for RNP-ers. The time has been chosen for substantial reasons. So much to review and analyze! We will discuss what we know, speculate about more, and the coming fortnight should be interesting. I might find something I can put in the public eye for general readers of Setup, I'll do my best. Not and RNP-er? That's ok. Look hard at the projections which are weekly timeframe, look to where price is relative to my VAP levels. Go back many months and look at articles in the AM Blog. It's actually all here in separate parts for those who look and take time to think, and it's all working out. Sorry I don't put the view in bullet points, but I can't allow the text reading algos or internet writing skimmers to take and rework as their own material. I am sure regular readers understand.

And my stocks and bonds are again hedged, with optionality to capture upside but protection from downside.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 25, 2016 - 1:29pm (Reply to #9210)
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Canadian dollar needs to adjust

Just FYI.

AM posted a few graphs of gold versus a number of currencies. He mentioned the CDN dollar was not where it needed to be.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/canadian-dollar-drops...

Lo and behold - after this weekend G20 and before the other currencies dates with CB musings - we just directly adjust that little sucker. No time left for pretenses (oh sorry its oil related - sure)