Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 4:42pm
JAL
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Don't fuck it up...

DEF CON 22 - Zoz - Don't Fuck It Up!

All the best!

Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 9:21pm (Reply to #41146)
Sunnyboy
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Buy the dip and let her rip

Not buying but she sure is ripping. Surprised myself pondering over a sell at 0.29 vs 0.28 when my last couple of sales averaged 0.2 :-) this all while spot dropped from 1380 to 1340, go figure

GLTA

Woof

Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 10:46pm
Big Buffalo
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Dip?

so, are we getting another dip and test of lows in silver or has that ship sailed?

Ba-zinga!
Thu, Jul 14, 2016 - 6:41am
tonym9
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151.34 NUGT entry premarket,

151.34 NUGT entry premarket, USD/JPY ran big overnight but GDX is holding up considering the drop so I'm playing the buyers will bid up gold during the day after it gets knocked down overnight game...we'll see, very early to say it's a pattern. Hesitant due to the USD/JPY and the BoE rate announcement. Support is mid 1320s...18 day is 1327.79 on the daily per netdania (we're there). 

premarket report as of 515am cst:

per scottrade ticker: 

NUGT: 152.50Bid 153.77Ask

GDX: 29.74Bid 29.84Ask

DUST: 5.95 Bid 5.99 Ask

per CNBC quotes:

USD/JPY: 105.82

UST 10 yr: 1.4963

GBP/USD: 1.3221

EUR: 1.11.09

GOLD: 1327.90

SILVER: 20.26

COPPER: 20.2455

WTI: 45.41

UST 30 yr: 2.1961

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jul 14, 2016 - 1:28pm (Reply to #41146)
securi_D
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Yep

SSK wrote:

The trend stays in place with the miners.

Agreed. With Gold down about 1.5% this morning, I expected the miners to take a pretty nice hit (4-5%+), and they didn't. Some of the miners are actually positive...! They strength in the miners is pretty evident here. They definitely have momentum. The only thing I'll be worried about is if gold breaks 1300 to the downside and the miners reacting to it. In the meantime, I'm adding to my swing position.

-_D

Thu, Jul 14, 2016 - 4:37pm
tonym9
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Bailed on NUGT at 156 mid

Bailed on NUGT at 156 mid day....have to let my winners run more, I've left too much on the table lately

EDIT

Thanks Sam, I forgot about finviz. I'm posting the quotes here as data gathering, plan to try to track them against each other at specific times (hence timestamp) but I can't get good snapshots with the paging back and forth, too much movement...I'm not the best at computer stuff and laying in bed still blurry eyed doesn't help....damn laptop is BRIGHT in a dark bedroom having just woken up seconds before lol.

MADCOW: my son LOVES that game. Ninetendo has a big hit if they can properly monetize it....it even made a local news report a few nights ago...people running into stuff story.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 6:21am
tonym9
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in NUGT 158.26 (bid/ask was

in NUGT 158.26 (bid/ask was 157.80 and 157.81 but I couldn't type fast enough right at 5am pre open). So far the buy at 5am seems to be working as by 515 B/A is up several days in a row from 5am

premarket report, 515am cst:

USD/JPY: 105.84 (just dropped from 106.12 30 mins before)

GBP/USD: 1.3350

EUR/USD: 1.1139

UST 10 yr: 1.5338

UST 30 yr: 2.2529

WTI: 45.22

GOLD: 1332.80

SILVER: 20.255

COPPER: 2.26

all above from cnbc

all below from scottrade ticker bid/ask

DUST: 5.76 5.82

NUGT 158.41 159.34

GDX: 30.10 30.18

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jul 15, 2016 - 8:50am
tonym9
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sold NUGT 158.26 at 160.28

sold NUGT 158.26 at 160.28 just before retail sales ... bought NUGT back at 157.35after the numbers release

premarket report as of 745cst:

GOLD: 1328.40

Silver: 20.25

Copper: 2.2575

USD/JPY 105.99

WTI: 45.78

10yr UST: 1.5681

30 yr UST: 2.2768

above via cnbc

below via scottrade ticker a few minutes later

DUST 5.80 5,82

GDX 30.05 30.06

NUGT 157.13 157.25

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 10:56am
tonym9
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So, how low does gold go sun

So, how low does gold go sun night/mon morn? Usd/JPY 106 again? 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 12:38pm (Reply to #41155)
Pick 52
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tonym9 - Dollar/Yen

Very basic chart here, but there's a telling spot coming up this week:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IYMfIVWg/

I own GDX Aug $33 calls so I'm watching this spot closely, GL

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 12:58pm
Pick 52
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(KMI) Kinder-Morgan

Hey guys, obviously I never post here but do enjoy following along. 

Just calling this trade idea to anyone's attn in case they are interested. No matter what timeframe you want to observe, the charts are laugh out loud bullish near-term. I recommend looking at the weekly chart on stockcharts.com for starters. The weekly candle that just closed is sick, and it ended above the 50 day for the first time in over a year. The daily 50 and 200 SMA are rapidly closing in on a cross

Though I'm not a chartist and don't know much about KMI's fundamentals other than they seem to be working hard at paying down their debt by selling stakes and cutting div, the technical setup here was/is too good to pass up imo. I bought Sept 22 calls this week for .27 and they've already seen .64. Sold half after they doubled and now I'm on a free ride looking to add on any pullbacks

Again, not touting fundamentals at all, and earnings call is July 19. If stock and commodities, (especially energy) keep running up through the election on reflation etc. like I'm guessing they will, this feels like easy money right now...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jTtWiEXE/

Hope this is useful, cheers

Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 5:16pm
tonym9
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Had a bit of reaction to

Had a bit of reaction to Turkey...

A few minutes before that news broke, I sold my NUGT for $2 per share loss at 155. I flipped into DUST for a weeken hold at 5.91 per cuz I didn't like golds action or the chart. Went outside just casually checked on it a bit later DUST was 5.73 and NUGT was 159.30 per....WTH? Went in, turned on cnbc, oh shit coup in Turkey. Watched a few minutes of coverage, it sounded for real, flipped back into NUGT. Weekend hold thinking gold runs. 

Then the coup failed. Hmmmm. NEWS HEADLINE REACTION. Exactly what I said I wasn't gonna do no more...hmph! 

So now we have a so called president acting like a dictator flushing judges and who knows who else...sounds like instability to me even tho coup failed. This guy has been bad news for some time, now it's front page. 

I'm not sure which way this goes, my guess is gold goes down to test 1225ish and USD/JPY tests 106....which makes NUGT 148-152 I'm guessing. If gold runs it probably tests brexit high. 

We shall see...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 20, 2016 - 7:39am
tonym9
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In out of nugt and dust, but

In out of nugt and dust, but riding dust mostly yesterday and today. nice to get back some of my money from dust, gonna ride it for a bit, looks like gold is heading lower with a break of 1325, next stop 1305ish? Looks like gdx is starting to breakdown too and the moves into dust are getting faster with the gold down ticks...mo shift in the making perhaps? 

miner sale coming? 

option expire season btw

could bring in a late doldrum??? i'm on a very low probability view on this summer's doldrums since brexit, but if you look at the delay that i was talking about weeks ago it should come in soon if it does happen. 

we shall see. 

GLTA 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 20, 2016 - 8:14am (Reply to #41159)
pailin
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tonym9 wrote:i'm on a very

tonym9 wrote:

i'm on a very low probability view on this summer's doldrums since brexit, but if you look at the delay that i was talking about weeks ago it should come in soon if it does happen.

An August low, even a September low, is uncommon but not unprecedented...there's no specific target it's a "season". As you are day trading...I think you either ignore (and continue to day trade using other technical parameters) or start trend trading instead. What you are doing now and seasonal, don't really mix imo. And you can see that in your early skittishness (pre-July 4th) that had you mis-positioned (for day trades) and late (now) "very low probability" view. That second one, it's how you will probably get trapped levered long when an overnight market collapses and you see a monster gap down before NY opens for you to escape. I'm nobody special with that comment, just sayin'... :)

And don't forget - to whatever extent you have a stack...you are already "net" long!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 20, 2016 - 9:15am
tonym9
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Trading within the trend.

Trading within the trend. When the trend changes I change with it. Try not to hold overnight. That way I don't get trapped. AND NO MORE HEADLINE TRADES lol. Gold to 13teens and GDX to 29.0s looks like a 10%+ day for dust. We shall see. 

EDIT: out of DUST at 6.45 after a nice premarket run, have a patient coming in so can't watch. flat but stink on dust at 6.25 per. doubt it gets hit, mo seems to be on dust's side today.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 20, 2016 - 1:15pm
madcow
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DUST moving up but... i still

DUST moving up but... i still dont hold faith atm.

Nintendo just keeps making that skrilla, and im still kicking myself in the ass for not going in as much as i wanted over the past year. >:o

Wed, Jul 20, 2016 - 2:01pm
tonym9
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got back in/out of dust today

got back in/out of dust today several times when opportunity allowed. tough to trade with work, will only stay in a position when i can watch it. got most of the move today so i'm happy, especially considering my work schedule was full today and i juggled it pretty well. when i'm at work it's a bonus trading day, love those.

looks like a pause at mid-high 13teens. will have to re-eval charts tonight when i get home. flat right now.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jul 21, 2016 - 8:41am (Reply to #41162)
Sunnyboy
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Paradis
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DUST moving up but... i still

Madcow don't beat your self up, I almost put 50k into Netflix at between 5 and 6$ back in 2008 & 9...got side tracked and instead I put it into gold and silver :-S. Looked at it again end 2012 but had just started my current business and needed the float.

You win some you loose some, c'est la vie enjoy it while you can

Woof

Thu, Jul 21, 2016 - 12:50pm
madcow
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i seem to alway toss tons of

i seem to alway toss tons of shit into a crap bet, and never toss in a lot of weight on ones that i can see end up being winners some day haha. I dunno why i do that but...

Fri, Jul 22, 2016 - 9:29am
tonym9
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Madcow: The list of shoulda

Madcow: The list of shoulda woulda coulda is a mile long and 3 wide for me. I'm sure all of us have perfect 20/20 hindsight. Find the next trade, make sure its solid, commit to it. 

My latest forays into dumba$$ moves are cutting winners short. What sucks is being right, acting, then not executing. This latest re-entry into trading has revealed things to work on...a good thing discovering weaknesses.

The toughest balance is the one between fear and greed. 

As far as today, it's a DUST day, I'm in at 6.60:

1. options exp next week

2. PM Kabota's quotes of no helicopter money were back in June per Bloomberg

3. USD/JPY was 107+ when that article came out.

4, Current gold is 1324land. Lower bolinger is around 1306, 50 day is 1280s, 20 day is hi 1330s, Upper bolinger is 1370ish. USD/JPY is hi 106ohs. 

I'm targeting 13ohs today which should put DUST mid to hi 7s, assuming we can break thru low 13teens. A break past 1300 and that should take gold to 1280s and DUST should be 9+...doubt we get past mid 8s DUST/gold below 1300flat if a run comes tho. Sell order at 8.30 per, will adjust down to sell high 7s if run down stops at 13ohs. It may not materialize today, but I feel confident it's coming before late next week. Wont hold over weekend, too much headline risk. 

glta

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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