Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sat, Jul 9, 2016 - 9:10am
tonym9
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P: there's a number of

P: there's a number of factors but it boils down to the costs after I sell. Rent prices in Houston are crazy right now, my monthly expenditures counting a storage facil easily go up $1250-1500 a month above now and I have the concern associated with offsite storage of my Ford/car stuff being taken....there's alot of it, easily need 4 bays. I expected Houston's real estate to crater...hasn't happened. Oil in 20's longterm and it may, but right now things are steady. 

Then there's the interruption of my HS Sophomore's education even tho he has a mandatory school change next year. He'll go with most of his friends so the social part is ok. He had a few C's (spainish/albebra) this year, so that pretty much knocked out the issue of top 10% in his class at his current vs new school.

Then the PITA factor of moving 10s of thousands of pounds of car related stuff. No way I trust anyone with that, so it's all on me. 

Hawaii is still on the schedule, but it's gonna have to wait until my youngest is in college, Junior year, assuming Assoc to Sr college plan. My Hazelwood (Tx Vet Beni) gives him 150 sem hrs at a public Texas college so that's a big consideration.

We figured since the roof had to be done, why not make the back yard an Oasis...at least as much as possible. Fighting skeeters and humidity will cut down on the enjoyment days, but some better than none. 

I wont go back to Hawaii to visit until I have my inspection biz up and running and can take a month off. 2 weeks just isn't long enough....geez that sounds so pompous but it's so true. Wife is actually going to do inspections too (limited to female market and only specific areas of town) since she enjoys stuff like that. Eventually both of us will leave our day job to have freedom of sch'd. Eventually. Time is becoming WAY more important than money...I guess you call that getting wiser or in my case just plain getting old. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Jul 9, 2016 - 12:39pm
pailin
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Your plan is sound, helped by

Your plan is sound, helped by the fact that RE didn't crater. Time is definitely more important than money. I checked out of 9-5 life October 2010 and can't believe I ever did it (in hindsight). I could never go back. Everyday my mission is to make sure I don't have to. So far, so good ;)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sat, Jul 9, 2016 - 12:56pm
eyeswideopen
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Home Sweet Home

Congrats Mr. P. Plenty of NH snowbirds and transplants here who have a high opinion of their home state. I'm sure from an overall financial perspective NH is superior to its neighbors. Interest rates are relevant IF you end up paying all of it, but through amortization at the beginning of the loan one can do a lot of damage. You can go to bankrate.com, go to mortgage calculator, enter relevant info, and view/print amortization schedule. No idea what the term of your loan is, but with your disposable income you can knock out a lot of extra payments, evading that pesky interest. I was able to knock out nearly 2 yrs on a 15yr.

@tony

Thanks. Yep. Room, planting, privacy, unincorporated. No code enforcement Nazis. I did product marketing, promotions and published directories back in the day, so no commute. All the work I'll need will be in and around Katy and perhaps a bartending gig. It was a great way to recruit new business. My plan is to camp at my brother's in Katy while I search. Just beginning the homework from here. I can envision heading that way next May or June. By then several things should take shape. I'll likely place a handy fella here in return for reduced rent until it makes sense to sell. The area around me continues to develop which will make my property more attractive from a zoning perspective. I really thought this would be my last stop, but shit is deteriorating here. Influx of undesirables from the south, with lower income, lower educated owners taking over their parents dwellings. My parents are set and sister is likely to swoop in to attend to their (mom's) needs, so my obligations are complete. I can leave without guilt. I liked my time in Houston and hope a return works out.

Sun, Jul 10, 2016 - 9:21am (Reply to #41129)
pailin
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eyeswideopen wrote:Congrats

eyeswideopen wrote:

Congrats Mr. P. Plenty of NH snowbirds and transplants here who have a high opinion of their home state. I'm sure from an overall financial perspective NH is superior to its neighbors. Interest rates are relevant IF you end up paying all of it, but through amortization at the beginning of the loan one can do a lot of damage. You can go to bankrate.com, go to mortgage calculator, enter relevant info, and view/print amortization schedule. No idea what the term of your loan is, but with your disposable income you can knock out a lot of extra payments, evading that pesky interest. I was able to knock out nearly 2 yrs on a 15yr.

NH made the most sense from a freedom and overall cost of living view, against other NE locales. But the property tax...oof. For those of you that don't know, NH has no state income or sales tax, so the primary revenue stream is property tax and also along with a certain amount of austerity of services. It's a rural state overall. All fine by me, but ultimately the p taxes are double surrounding states; it's an adjustment.

I quoted you 3.5% but forgot to mention it's for 30 yr term. We were prepared for all cash, but wanted to see $100k move off old prices to do it. That wiggle isn't there with rates still so low, still too much demand. Another Fed bump up would have helped (BREXIT does not, as EU assets continue to buy into all duration T's). But also RE supply is very tight (probably the same many places) as builders are not building new sf homes only condos and apts and existing owners (still) need to cash out at/near full price to cover their older (higher) rate obligations and low-equity HELOC eff-ups. Sucky time to be a (potentially) all-cash buyer - it's a debtor's paradise. But we needed to do this to expand the business, yadda yadda, not to mention get out of suburban zombie zones :) And ultimately, I wasn't bs-ing how lucrative my business is, I'll make much more investing in myself than any sort of opportunity cost analysis in paying down/off early (especially against silly 3.5%!) So w/o realizing it, the bankers just us lent several hundy k for my business w/o me having to submit a business plan :) :) :)

And if the world burns...what me worry? lol.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jul 11, 2016 - 8:01am
tonym9
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630am cst premarket update:

630-45am cst premarket update: WTI 44.86, Gold 1358.60, Silver 20.44, GLD 129.59, GDX 30.33, NUGT 164.50, DUST 5.74, USD/JPY 102.39, UST 10yr 1.3931, UST 30yr 2.1124........all quotes from CNBC.

UST 10's are up along with Yen. My guess is due to Japanese elections.

Looks like might be able to get NUGT at a decent entry today. Considering DUST, but will watch mo on it before doing it.

Still have DUST in back of my mind....haven't let go of seasonal thoughts yet, even though IMO they were invalidated with after Brexit breakout of Brexit high. hmmm, will have to be wary of Bear Glasses. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Jul 11, 2016 - 10:54am
tonym9
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buyers strength is still in

buyers strength is still in GDX and NUGT. I've been tracking the micromoves this morning and again today any uptick in spot results in a good (relatively speaking) uptick in GDX. Downs are basically ignored. DUST can not get any love and gets a quick hit down upon any run up by gold/gdx.

I'm in NUGT at 164.98 per. If gold breaks netdania 1360 NUGT should make a run for 170land. 

microtracks this morn since open, netdania is quote for gold, scottrade ticker for the rest:

1357.33, 162.95, 5.79, 30.25

1357.27, 162.63, ,5.76, 30.29

1355.96, 164.31, 5.71, 30.40

1356.55, 165.01, 5.70, 30.42

1357.88, 167.51, 5.60, 30.59

1358.29, 167.83, 5.60, 30.61

1358.80, 168.84, 5.56, 30.67

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Jul 11, 2016 - 12:25pm
tonym9
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got out of NUGT 164.98

got out of NUGT 164.98 position at 166.50 when it broke one minute low channel. 

then rushed in at 168.97 thinking it was on a run when it broke the one minute high channel, sold at 167.25 when spot failed at the one minute low channel 

net .20 per share loss

not feelin it today...my timing is off and I'm not being patient. 

time to go work the yard finishing up the sprinker system install. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 7:23am
tonym9
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615-630am premarket report:

615-630am premarket report: Gold 1347.54 (netdania), Silver 20.24 netdania, GDX 30.35Bid 30.38 ask, NUGT 163.51bid 164.40ask, DUST 5.72bid 5.76 ask (all from scottrade ticker), 103.72 JPY/USD, UST 10 yr 1.47, WTI 46.01, 131.28 GBP/USD, UST 30 yr 2.21 (all from cnbc)

I'm in DUST at 5.73 per. We shall see but gold looks like it's gonna get bid down today

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 9:46am
tonym9
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out of DUST at 1346 2mins

out of DUST at 1346 2mins before it started to drop to 1342 after open at 5.78, my original LSO was 5.93 and it didnt get there so....caught the shrivleys I did...DUST just cant get any love and Ive got a patient about to walk in so went flat.

Stink bid on NUGT at 153 if gold does get slapped this morning

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 11:42am
csquared13
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Is anyone actively trading FX

Is anyone actively trading FX these days?

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 12:37pm
tonym9
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wow i am amazed at how strong

wow i am amazed at how strong nugt/gdx are in the face of 1330s....dust can not get any love at all...until mo shifts dust is radioactive and to be avoided.

taking a flyer with a tight stop on nugt at 160.19

unflippinbelievable...

i could have predicted this...i picked up some phys last night on the net from provident and apmex...perfect. i may have ushered in the doldrums all by myself lol

EDIT: out, love stop loss orders...

DUST finally broke $6 per share...amazing

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 12:48pm
madcow
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im loving the nintendo

im loving the nintendo game.... too bad i didnt put more into it over the past year :(

Ill make some skrilla but it wont be much. (unless this shit just keeps on climbing)

Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 1:23pm
SSK
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Skinny dipping

Buying the dip. Again. Added MUX and EXK. Nothing huge. I have my eye on the ticker.

Like EXK moving forward.

Stopped out of RUSS. Ratfucked on that one. I don't get oil. Done fooling with it.

Only reason to go for a 15 year mortgage now is if you'll be in the house for 10+ years. If not, take the 3.5% 30-year and free up cash to make more then 3.5%.

Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 1:44pm
tonym9
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Let's try again....back in

Let's try again....back in NUGT at 153.90, tight stop

MADCOW: first day it came out my son got it....when he (26 yr old) started talking about how he loved 'train/catch/hatch' etc pokeman on his phone and that he had waited to do this since he was a preteen, I told him to buy Ninetendo. He didn't. Niether did I. When it opened up 22% and I told him he just shook his head and grinned. It's gonna be a big hit. He loves it. Lots of bugs, still doesnt work on all phones (my youngest cant access it yet) but older says they are working on a 'patch' whatever that is and it should come on line pretty quick. I'd be long Nintendo for sure, but its not my area of expertise. He says the US was the beta test for it even though they didnt call it that. I asked about how the game would charge, he says there are small fees assoc'd with keeping/training/health etc but nominal...he's waiting for the bugs to be gone before he starts to pay to play....says it's cheaper than a new video game and he'll pay it. He dug out some of his first edition pokeman cards the other day lol. All his friends from the 'old' days as he puts it love the game.....it's a huge hit.

DUST at 6.10, finally broke over 6.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 12, 2016 - 3:56pm
tonym9
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out of NUGT...tried to catch

out of NUGT...tried to catch it twice today at 160 and 153, lost a finger both times... DUST actually starting to get some bids under it

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 7:24am
tonym9
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premarket report 615-630am

premarket report 615-630am CST:

gold: 1338.10

Silver: 20.38

Copper: 2.24

USD/JPY: 104.75 (after being down to 104.0's at Asia open last night...was 103.72 24 hrs ago before the gold drop yest)

UST 10 yr: 148.45

WTI: 46.17

UST 30 yr: 2.20

GBP/USD: 132.63

all above cnbc quotes

all below scottrade tickers

GDX: 29.75/29.78

NUGT: 153.70/153.98

DUST: 6.01/6.08

I bought NUGT yesterday aftermarket at 148.90 for an overnight hold after 2 attempts at catching it and failing, sold it this morn in premarket for 154.11 when USD/JPY was at 104.69 as I saw it going up and sold 530am....made back most of yesterday's stop loss hits. Thinking about DUST pretty seriously but the GDX premarket B/A is askew against it....will watch some more first

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 9:23am
tonym9
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premarket update (815-820

premarket update (815-820 cst)

dust: 5.86

nugt:157.34

gdx: 30.03

usd/jpy: 104.51

gbp/usd: 132.5

gold: 1340.40

all per cnbc

doesn't make sense...GDX is running like a scalded dog but if you look at usd/jpy it hasn't moved much and neither has gold from 630am. premarket numbers are hard to get a grip on. I obviously bailed on my nugt too early.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 9:30am (Reply to #41142)
SamSchlepps
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@ tonym9 FWIW - maybe quicker for you

I kind of like this site for prices, but interestingly they are not always same as investing.com

https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

The news link on finviz - LHS confirms the MOPE being delivered to Main Street and RHS is the MOPE for us Alternative Media types - so always interesting even if a bit confusing.

may save you some time you can post a pic or link

Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 1:14pm
madcow
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tonym9 - i been playing since

tonym9 - i been playing since release, its fun as shit. SO many people out there playing and gathering, making new friends.


My nintendo play was for the new console tho, and i kept putting off adding more shares figuring a dip would happen prior. 

Yet another winner i picked that i never backed fully... yet somehow always manage to back the losers quit well haha.

Eitehr way, sold half shares yesterday and letting the rest ride the tide.

Wed, Jul 13, 2016 - 3:09pm
SSK
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Buy the dip and let her rip

Currently enjoying the rip from yesterday's weakness. The trend stays in place with the miners.