The New TA

I don’t mean technical analysis.

  1. Have you ever sworn off trading, but only lasted for a couple of days?
  2. Have you ever slammed your fist on your desk when you get stopped out, or just miss filling your order by one penny?
  3. Do you believe you can stop trading any time you want, even though you keep losing?
  4. Have you ever switched from stocks to options or futures figuring that would end your losing streak?
  5. Do you envy people who make money trading?
  6. Has your trading caused trouble at home?
  7. Have you ever felt that you would be better off today if had not started trading?

If you answer yes to one or more of these questions, you may need to slow down and rethink your life. You just may be a …Trade-a-holic!

Personally, these questions are little uncomfortable for me to answer. To help people like you, and me, I am kicking off a new service called Tradeaholics Anonymous. This is the new TA. But prior to explaining my new service, I’ll tell you a story.

The other night after work, sitting in my man-cave, I looked at the charts and started wondering whether or not gold hit a bottom and turned upwards. I read Craig’s post for the day, which brought things into focus for me, and I thought indeed it turned and started upward. Next I took a look at JNUG– a 3X bullish ETF I like to trade – and I just watched it for about 30 minutes and then decided to put in a stink bid. I didn't get a fill.  I expected a pull-back at the open that might be a good entry point. The next morning I placed a rather stinky stink bid. And about five minutes before the opening bell, watching the ETF move towards my bid, a higher power took hold of me.

I slid that mouse over and canceled my order.

Next, I went downstairs and made some coffee. I came upstairs an hour later looked at the charts and saw that my bid would have been filled and the ETF was moving higher… then lower, then higher.  If I had set a trailing stop I might’ve been washed out with a small gain, but with a stop loss below my bid, things wouldabeen rosy, and absolutely smokin' the next day.

But I didn't feel like I missed out on anything. In fact I haven’t made a trade all week.

I decided to rethink my trading.

I have spent a lot of time trading over the past several years with very little to show for it except some most excellent tax deductions. And now I stand up and publicly say…

My name is Jerome, and I am a Trade-aholic.

Worse yet, I have failed as a trader.

I define “failed at trading” as “I am not making $50 for every hour I spend staring at the screen making trades.” So in my case, even in years where I broke even, or profited, I must admit that I have failed. If you feel the same way, this service just might be for you. Since I’m a person who likes to share what I have with others, the service is free. In fact you don’t even need to sign up. Just simply follow the simple five-step plan that I provide below. It’s easy.

The Service

  1. Close your trading account.
  2. With some of that leftover fiat, buy gifts for the loved ones in your life.
  3. Tell your loved ones, “I’m sorry.”
  4. Use the rest to buy silver and gold. Now is a good time.
  5. Save up your fiat, and only buy more silver and gold when Turd calls a bottom, and invest the rest of it with a plan, and phronesis.*

Now that we know what the problem is, and we know how to fix it, we still have a need to make good use of our time earning fiat. We don’t have to stop investing, but we really should stop handing our money over to the banksters via risky, ill-considered trades, motivated by greed, desperation, or the quest for that elusive 10-bagger. Hanging up our day-trader hats and simply thinking of ourselves as investors may be the right step for many. I know there are many preppers here who do not day-trade, may be tempted to start, and might find it quite unprofitable if they did try. There are other ways to make fiat to move you closer to your goals.

If you read between the lines of this post, I hope you can see that changes Craig discussed in his February 12 article have me rattled as it brought some things into focus. Not that I believe the Keynesian collapse is upon us, but the reality of its inevitable arrival has been re-stamped on my brain. When I was first awakened in 2010, I realized that I was deeply in debt with little equity and even less cash and savings. Our response was to buy silver and gold ($40-ish silver and $1700 gold) with all incoming fiat we could spare, and to purchase & store emergency supplies for the collapse, which I just knew was going to arrive any day, and certainly by 2013.

A comment back on our February 13 thread really got me to thinking: Our good friend Smkmjk2001 said, “If setups like those that currently exist in the metals fail to produce significant gains/progress, I fail to see what will.” And Streber added a concise summary of the reasons why, suggesting a redoubled effort by banks that leads the average investor to conclude, “Look Homer, PMs are still a bad investment.”

I, for one, am not complaining anymore about the low price of metals. I suspect that when the metals finally see the gains that we're hoping for, we will not have an economy with a viable metals market enabling us to pay off a house, or purchase a dream prepper property. So let’s do what two thirds of the world is doing: Thank God for low metal prices, keep stacking, and invest wisely. Our day will come, but I am in no hurry to see it.

I’m not going to predict the end anymore. The reflation of real estate has been good to my family, altering the focus of our future plans. As we endeavor to acquire a debt free property where we can grow & raise our own food long-term (if need be), we shall continue to stack. But today I favor silver coins that can serve as money rather than 100 ounce bars for investing. Instead, I want to invest in soil, water, solar power, distance from cities, security, housing, and trustworthy neighbors. These are items I will deeply appreciate whether or not the collapse occurs before I finish my days on this earth.

I admire the savvy traders that participate in this blog and wish you continued success in your future trading. Make fiat and keep taking metals out of this market. I will cheer you on, but I can’t keep up with you. We all have differing abilities and skill sets. If trading isn’t going bring the fiat that will fully enable the desired lifestyle change, we need to find another way.

Let’s use the days wisely to profit as we can to change our lifestyle.

Most of us who have failed at trading should simply look for another venture by which you can profit—preferably a venture where the rules are simple, the business is straightforward, and Wall Street banks are not manipulating its market daily.

I certainly plan to keep stacking. But since I have this retirement fund with my employer I need to put that somewhere that will provide me a decent return. I plan to invest (not day-trade) in something that is bullish with metals without leverage. At this point, I’ll simply purchase shares of GLD when Craig says we are lookin’ bullish, and cash out when the COT report starts to look bearish... and I am all ears for other suggestions.

So putting all of the trade-aholic losses behind us with the 2017 tax return that I’m working on, my wife and I are having fun with a new venture.

In the past year we have purchased several RV travel trailers and sold them. My wife set up an automated Craigslist email sent to us each time somebody lists a travel trailer or RV for sale within a set price range. When we see something we like, we move fast, driving over to take a look with our cash in hand, prepared to make the deal. We pull the trailer home, clean it up, repair a few things if we have time, and list it for sale. We typically drive to one of two large cities to buy trailers where people are desperate to get some cash. We live in a tourist area in central Arizona where these sorts of things sell for a higher price. (AKA: arbitrage) So far so good. We average 1K in profit on the deals. We broke even on one. No losses. Our little venture only requires a truck that can pull the trailer and a place to park it. And we enjoy the thrill of the hunt, the adventure of traveling to another city, a nice lunch or dinner, stopping to see relatives.

Our venture has been more profitable than my trading, and the time spent is moving us toward our long-term goals of that country property. It continuously provides us with a travel trailer for vacations and even a backup bedroom if one of our kids needed to move home--not to mention an extra place to stay if a friend or relative is in dire straits. Low risk, modest reward.

I suggest you to find a way to earn extra fiat and put it to good use, whether you stack, prep or invest part of it. I’m sure we would all love to hear entrepreneurial ideas that some of you are engaging in. Entrepreneurship, in my view, is going to be a wise career choice in the future, perhaps one of the only choices.

So I am swearing-off day-trading & swing-trading (mostly) and taking up entrepreneurship and longer term investing. … Really, I mean it!

After this decision, a very good friend and trading accomplice called me yesterday to tell me about a new trading service he found (actually, they cold-called him). Just a mere 5K for their trading class and they guarantee $200 per day profit if you load your account with 10K and follow their formula. Told him "I better pass." And my service is cheaper!

Happy stacking… Caress your metals often, and may your preparations be wise and effective.  

* Phronesis: A Greek philosophical term meaning "wisdom in determining ends and the means of attaining them."

41 Comments

silver66's picture

Three

that is three in a row,holy crap buying that lottery ticket yesterday and clean living is paying off

If first's were an olympic sport, I would be on a wheaties box

Silver66

all joking aside, a good article Dr J 

AGXIIK's picture

Trade A Holics Anonymous Great title and excellent article

It's very down to earth and speaks to all of us who've been hosed by our trading.  As a day trader,  I went clean and sober in 2012, sold all my positions,  sold my commercial real estate, converted my 401 K to a self directed IRA  and changed out all to PMs at $1,500 and $33 DCA; no trading for 4 years.  Harvested a low 7 figure capital loss carry forward for all the work laboring over a keyboard.  Sheesh.

Trading is very sketchy today   There's a big trading club out there and we're not members.  Better to find another line of work.   

Trailers for sale or rent

Trading stocks came and went

I'm a man of means by no means

Just living the dream

Buying, selling and trading tangibles cannot be controlled by some algo driven banker pimp on Wall Street or an HFT fund on the Acela corridor.  It's far more satisfying to do the deal and not worry about whether the market opens up or down tomorrow.  Maybe some bankrupt banker will need to sell his  shiny near new 39 ft Class A roller. Tell him you'll give him 1o cents on the dollar, about the same return as he gave you when you have deposits at his bank.  Then give him Greyhound Bus ticket out of town. Maybe to Albuquerque.

All kidding aside, a lot of us should turn off the computer and set aside that trading account, grab a cuppa joe and reflect on the world and our place in it.  Good thoughts for the day Dr Jerome.

Cheers

Oh, and yeah.   Second

ancientmoney's picture

Be a JPM trader...

If you want 100% guaranteed forever silver profits.  Yes sir, every CME trade in silver has resulted in magnificent profits for years, with no losses!

abguy4's picture

You are playing chess against a super computer

Dr. J, JFYI

I had a shirt-tail relation, who graduated from a top-ten college and went to Wall St.

After he had been there two years I saw him at a family gathering. He told me "AB, don't play in the Market. We have software you can not imagine. We can see your trade account and every position in it. Every Bid and every Stop at every brokerage. It's no different than going to a Casino where you know the cameras in the ceiling are watching your every move and the computer algorithms are recording your every "bet". The algorithms even predict your risk/loss tolerance, to keep you in the Game (losing) as long as possible. We have a staff of Phd Behavioral Psychologists designing the algorithms. We have more money than god. You are playing chess against a super computer."

You've been in academics. Where exactly are you gonna make a living with a Behavioral Phd?

I hope that helps explain a few things you've experienced.

silver10sguy's picture

Congratulations Dr Jerome

Good post and congratulations on finding a new way to prosper and keep your sanity.  Guess my losses are for the most part painful from trading mining shares.  I feel better just stacking silver, gold, and a bit of Litecoin.  Thanks for sharing your story. 

AgstAger's picture

Very good post

The best articles are easy to read, informative and entertaining.  You hit all three markers. Very nice job. 

TF Metals fan's picture

I came to the same conclusion

Here another TA member. 

I found myself too often on the wrong side of a trade. Stoplosses were just hit before things reversed. I remember a stock bought around 50 which went down to 40. Stoploss was hit and the thing raced to 130 or so. 

I eventually developed something else, resulting into an ownership of shares, not a trader. But trading on RSI or trends is not my cup of tea. I have been doing better these past years. Still not recovered from my overall loss. But if I remain at this pace I will get there. Eventually. One day. Sighhh. 

Once in a while I take a step into the casino and play with just a few pennies. Is exiting and the loss is not killing me. I now know there is not such a thing as a sure thing. Never.

Katie Rose's picture

I Love You, Dr. Jerome!

We are having a blizzard right now. I keep thinking of warmer climates. I just don't want drought with no rain. I also dislike east of the Rocky Mountain's humidity. So I I have chosen to not move anytime soon.

I also chose to not learn to trade. It all became so apparent to me following the slaughter of May 1st that it was all rigged. Who am I to trade in a market that is rigged, and not in my favor?

I have a friend who recently moved up here from CA. He used to visit and post nearly every day at TF Metals. He's no longer doing so. He told me he became addicted to being here, that it was affecting his work and his marriage. So he no longer visits or posts.

He is an engineer who is able to work from home, and having two separate computer screens open, one for work and one for TF Metals, was taking all his attention. He was able to purchase a home on the river here with lush green pastures free and clear. That's what happens when CA folks move elsewhere. He also went to the county fair and brought home goats. He called me afterwards and wanted advice.

When the trading is not fair, there must be a huge amount of ego involved to think that one can outdo the bots.

Folks now is the perfect time to buy garden seeds. You will get far more pleasure out of planting a garden, putting in an orchard, and eating the fruits of your labor than trading. And if you get goats and rabbits (rabbits give great fertilizer) and learn to compost, there is nothing but joy awaiting you.

I say simplify, simplify, simplify.

I once knew a man who told me that women who wore sweat pants had no self esteem. Since I really disliked him, I went to Walmart immediately and bought a pair. And I loved them!!! I wear them every day now. With long johns they are far more comfortable and much warmer than jeans.

"Make life easy for yourself "is my motto. "And do the things that you love." I am even thinking about getting reindeer. They are so beautiful and one of the longest domesticated animals. I have read that their meat is much milder tasting than regular deer meat which is too gamy tasting for me. And at Christmas they can be rented out as an attraction for stores when they have Santa appear.

So addictive trading, No! Gardening , Yes!

Nothing tastes as good as food you have grown yourself....

Lemming's picture

TA Trading

Tired Ass Trading, that's the kind that I do. 

My results over time have been parallel to the Doc's. I only trade no-brainers these days. What's a no-brainer? Sprott Physical Silver for one, PSLV. Why do trading with the enemy at SLV when Sprott can actually prove he has the silver? 

Where do you expect silver to go from here? Down? 

canary's picture

My friend sent me a graph of USD and 50 month MA

I was not able to copy it.......But it said that the USD was toast after it lost its 50 month MA in 2002...and USD lost its 50 month MA again just recently...Maybe it's something or maybe nothing, but with one trillion plus deficit in the near future....

fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=m1&rev=

Ronnie 666's picture

PetroYuan March 26

Official release date March 26 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-futures/china-plans-to-launch-crude-oil-futures-on-march-26-securities-regulator-idUSKBN1FT0P2

Did I miss this ? Did everyone see it ? May have been asleep at the wheel. 

Ronnie 666's picture

PetroYuan March 26

matt_'s picture

Friday I donated $1000 from trading profits to charity

...then I immediately lost $1000 when stopped out of NUGT.  Maybe god is trying to tell me something...such as that there are more noble, rewarding, and reliable ways to earn money.

Nice article Dr. J.

Marcus's picture

Trading

Trading is my life, my death and my resurrection.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes that news first broke

MODERATOR

Yes that news first broke back on the 9th but it’s a good reminder because it’s hard for everyone to keep up with everything.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8823/averting-our-gaze

Response to: PetroYuan March 26
Blackwatersailor's picture

Pay Attention

If you don't have a plan GET ONE.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-17/ring-fire-quake-cluster-prompts-scientists-warn-large-rupture-sooner-later

What your not hearing is the increased radioactive isotopes downwind of the caldera.  Add to increased stress cracks with significant increased tremor activity = start making plans.  Any volcanoligists please step in and take the lead.  These arent signals of a gentle build up but more of a rip/pop.  If your on this site it's because you like to plan ahead.  Do not take this lightly.  

canary's picture

I have a plan....

Need to buy a sailboat and metal detector...In case the big volcano goes off, I sail to Pilbara/Karratha region and try to make a living there...Is Australia strict about illegals?

Edit...I expect somebody to say: "canary, go now! Just go away".

NW VIEW's picture

A Plan?

Many will look for a place of escape, like the bugout island of 1790, Pitcairn Island, however we now have billions of people and the resources will be depleted in one day. 

Verus nemo's picture

Yuan crude contract rollout news

A 20 year veteran options trader in the City of London who posts daily market updates on YouTube under the handle of 'maneco64' has also been closely following this Yuan crude contract story.

In his post yesterday (Saturday) morning, he reported that he has now seen three separate "circulars," each published on February 14, that outline some of the additional contract details that China indicated would be necessary prerequisites prior to the official launch date. These 3 circulars apparently addressed site locations for crude storage and backup storage venues, as well as regulatory inspection protocols. Here is maneco64's video; he speaks of these details starting at about the 14:00 minute mark:

He missed the Reuters article that Ronnie666 references above but this is the only reference I've seen to these subsequent but necessary contract specifications that China promised would emerge prior to the launch of official trading.

I know that March 26 is now the widely anticipated launch date-----after many prior delays------but the table appears to be set; I don't know whether China has to now wait until March 26. Perhaps there is some strategic advantage to be gained by now surprising the world with an earlier rollout?

lakedweller2's picture

@Canary

Don't forget the metal detector and add "big" in front of sailboat.  I think the Pilbara is at least an overnight trip by water.

NW VIEW's picture

Someone stole my global warming!

I look out my window, cannot even see Mount Rainier, snowing this morning and my lawn is white.  My organic garden is covered with snow and I should have planted the peas last week. Things look like they will be delayed for awhile, until we get some warming. Global cooling has set in in this left coast state.    

Marcus's picture

Trading

Trading places is a great movie, but here's a more critical look at trading if you have about 80 minutes to spare.

Dr Jerome's picture

abguy4

From what I have gathered, people with a PhD in behavioral psychology typically find work studying people, studying what motivates them studying how to persuade them, how to manipulate... You remember the classic book by Vance Packard? The Hidden Persuaders. They find jobs in marketing, advertising, public relations, merchandising, studying things like which colors put people in the mood to buy. Makes perfect sense that they would work for Wall Street, casinos, political campaigns, and other supervillains.

Thanks for the story!   Profound!

RickshawETF's picture

Tahoe Resources

For those "fans" of Tahoe Resources -- From the IKN blog:

"Another example of the wonderful community relations atmosphere in Guatemala

Yesterday Thursday morning, the VP Ops at Escobal, David Howe, and the community relations chief at the mine, Camila Medina, went on a visit to local coffee farmers as part of the company's community outreach program. On the way back from the coffee growers at around 3pm their convoy was blocked by locals, who then punctured the tires of the car in which they were travelling. Now stuck and surrounded by an angry mob, the mob then told them they would set fire to the car if they didn't promise to close down the mine permanently and leave the area for good."

Anyone who has invested in miners over a long period knows that one of the pillars of a good company is having a good relationship with the local community . . .

RickshawETF's picture

Clif High's Prediction

Say what you will, and think of him as prescient/genius/whacko/deranged.  In any case, his call for BTC at $13,888 at the end of February looks pretty much on track.  That didn't look so promising, when BTC closed at $6,955 on February 5th.  With a move of 31% in the past week, he only needs a pair of 13% weekly gains to reach his target -- certainly not out of reach . . .

streber's picture

re Clif hi

I'm waiting for the predicted big rains in the Ohio valley, month of May.

...and, Thanks Doc for the honorable mention.

 cheers,
streber

NW VIEW's picture

Where ya swimmin"?

  So much wasted time, so much confusion, so much speculation, so much theory, so much hidden knowledge, so many prophets and gazers into the stars, so much fears within and without, a wide river, heading to an ocean of grief.  Why swim in that river?

   Strive to be an outlier, headed for the stream bank, a seeker of the Truth and not what is being fed to the swimmers.  Making just a few changes will give one mental health, inner peace. That river will rob every person of the peace of today. Sit on the shoreline, watch those floating by on tubes, headed to the ocean of confusion, a never ending robbers den.      Jim

chocolatechiphorses's picture

Hmmmm......

"We are in the throes of a burgeoning financial bubble, If I had a choice between holding a U.S. Treasury bond or a hot burning coal in my hand, I would choose the coal."
--Paul Tudor Jones

Danforth Coxwell's picture

I am curious on how the POSX, POG, POS and the USD/JPY Index...

will react on March 26, 2018. I am also curious if the  Canadian dollar will be affected. Canada is a large oil producing nation. Number one customer to the U.S. if I remember correctly!

Any comments from fellow Canadian Turdites?wink

Re: Yuan crude contracts March 26, 2018.

Markedtofuture's picture

Litecoin fork block: 1371111 FORK HAS HAPPENED

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