The setup for the big trade

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Silver_Surfer
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argentus maximus wrote:Have

argentus maximus wrote:

Have any central bankers committed suicide this week? Not yet? OK so ... the game continues.

frown

Could it have been the SNB that puked an enormous load of stocks during the brief "crash"?

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Agree...

...but there is a strong support line near ~1200.  And making a B-wave top this year is still in play.  Could the third bounce at 1365 be the charm? 

https://s.tradingview.com/x/huPZhnk7/

Silver_Surfer:  Either SNB or the Bank of Israel...or both?

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joeblack
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Throw that garbage in the trash.

I can't stand people who can't tolerate other's opinions  smiley

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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Ooops!

Silver Wheaton, now Wheaton Precious Metals, and my fat finger typo of ticker symbol WMP instead of WPM ! smiley

Such a coincidence WPM, W Passes M, W the invers seasonal pattern, replacing the seasonal shaped M from last year.

The 9th today (end of cycle) and WPM at 19, reduced is 1+9=10 (start of a new cycle). I am tempted to say BUY here, but I am not 100% convinced yet. 

First Majestic at 6,5 is a green light for me. WPM is at a very interesting point here, a multi decade support&resistance level.
Just look at a weekly chart.

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I promised I would post the

I promised I would post the other big scenario, which has opposite implications to the bullish reverse head and shoulders formation. I am presently working to the hypothesis that a 3 year range bottom calibration price test is more likely than the RevH&S, and have been saying this for a few years now.

Fresh highs (made and held!) would alter timing as well as choosing the alt scenario.  But my late 2018 buying point scenario is still valid until or unless such a breakout happens. IF it happens the imminent top "T" will be relabelled as a higher low "B" and range raised accordingly. But only if that situation occurs. It's the alt not the main scenario.

Here it is expressed in trading range terms using a 2-5 - 4 year scale basis the GLD fund:

Here is a projection for GLD on weekly:

Inversions may occur, as may a flip to an alt harmonic, but as is clearly visible, the price correlation with forecast (of the more robust red line) is presently well within acceptable bounds for this scenario.

There is a longer trend visible in the more sensitive line in smoky blue, which has a gentle downtrend embedded within the medium term swings, and the price has a more bullish uptrend visible within it's medium term swings. The algo is designed to filter out trend, but this difference seems to be accumulated short term variations adding up to make an apparent long term up-down variance. That is not significant since the harmonics being filtered, diagnosed, and enhanced are eg 3 to 36 months, not longer than that.

I am against the majority of gold analysts including some big names once again with this one. We'll see soon enough as time reveals track record for what it is.

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UncleFester
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AM

That alt correlation in red looks quite good!  Correctly captured 4/5 "steps".  Looks like middle of 2016 was the only major miss.  I'm curious, did you trade with this for the last 2 years?  If so, do you mind sharing the approximate gains?

On another note...the Au major support line I posted above in purple (near 1200) is slightly different from one you use.  I trace it from the late 2005 inflection (slope change) through the 12/2015 bottom.  I believe you have one from the 2008 bottom through the 12/2015 bottom.  It is a minor difference, but thought I would point it out.  The one I draw captures the 2008 low in Ag.  My reasoning being that Ag is more industrial and Au got a wealth safety bid during the 2008 dislocation.

I see that you are suggesting that the end to this Au bear market will be a final C-wave wash out low that will take that support line out.  That makes sense, but I was wondering if you have a "running flat" alternative where the wash out C-wave  terminates at a price above the end of the A-wave?  Kind of like this...

https://s.tradingview.com/x/yYCElA1Y/  

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kentucky
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I am against most major analysts

Not so, James Flannagan, Armstrong, Avi Gilbert, Radomowski, Elliot wave Lara, Jeff Christian among many others looking for a big C wave down.

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Technically

We have a bullish percent sell signal.  Weekly Stochastics have rolled over to the downside on gold.  The stocks are much weaker than the metal and are leading lower.  Silver looks awful.  Sentiment is just rolling over there are negative divergences on the weekly rsi charts in the miners.  The COT numbers are still in the bearish category.  Clive Maud is bullish which is always a negative.  The permabulls are there always and few if any would consider them doing anything but talking their book.

AM, you are by far in the majority at this point.

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Not too much consensus I

Not too much consensus I hope.  smiley That could introduce modifications to the outcome. But we'll see soon enough.

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I need to do a workup on

I need to do a workup on silver.

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Elliott Wave roundup links

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.ie/

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

http://studyofcycles.blogspot.ie/

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US Fed Data

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IBLACBW027NBOG

Nixon closed the gold window officially in 1973.  The data spans the entire timeline for the pure fiat system.  The data tells me today is not just market uncertainty or a pause.  The banks don't trust the solvency of their own system, they have completely stopped lending to each other.  Let that sink in...is this US bank systemic failure?

Strap in, keep all hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times, stay frosty, be careful out there.    

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With regards to the Goldcorp

With regards to the Goldcorp situation, this passage in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator seems apt:

"One day I saw in the Paris Herald a dispatch from New York that Smelters had declared an extra dividend. They had run up the price of the stock and the entire market had come back quite strong. Of course that changed everything for me in Aix. The news simply meant that the bull cliques were still fighting desperately against conditions against common sense and against common honesty, for they knew what was coming and were resorting to such schemes to put up the market in order to unload stocks before the storm struck them. It is possible they really did not believe the danger was as serious or as close at hand as I thought. The big men of the Street are as prone to be wishful thinkers as the politicians or the plain suckers. I myself can't work that way. In a speculator such an attitude is fatal. Perhaps a manufacturer of securities or a promoter of new enterprises can afford to indulge in hope-jags.

At all events, I knew that all bull manipulation was foredoomed to failure in that bear market. The instant I read the dispatch I knew there was only one thing to do to be comfortable, and that was to sell Smelters short. Why, the insiders as much as begged me on their knees to do it, when they increased the dividend rate on the verge of a money panic. It was as infuriating as the old "dares" of your boyhood. They dared me to sell that particular stock short.

I cabled some selling orders in Smelters and advised my friends in New York to go short of it. When I got my report from the brokers I saw the price they got was six points below the quotations I had seen in the Paris Herald. It shows you what the situation was."

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Something to consider:

Here's the HUI in weekly showing the last seven years, and also two large chunks of real estate :

It makes you wonder about things, doesn't it?

Regards,

AM

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xau:$gold

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU:$GOLD&p=W&st=1980-08-01&id=p00680254452&a=158843719

Stocks have underperformed for underperformed for over 20 years.  Maybe AM's chart above could be expanded.

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argentus maximus
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@Kentucky:

There is something that jumps out of that chart. It needs to go back a little earlier to verify, however that seems to be impossible with the data available.

My take on the down swing for that spread/ratio is that it ended 2016. Ideally I'd look to buy the downswing following initial rally, and use shorter term indicators to attempt locate that moment.

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Implied in the above: if it

Implied in the above: if it does make a fresh low, awaiting for the "first low of the upswing" would catch the final low of the downswing instead. The last signal has lower risk than the earlier ones.

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OT: ES

Well whadyaknow.  Look at recent closes.  Excellent mpl CL.

OTOH, we don't have any m0 daily pivots on the swing from top to 2/6 low.  Hard to call this a finished correction on that basis.  If price rallies back to the CL, watch for selling and reversal.

Compare the current to this one, which clearly called for a retest of the high (pivot 5) at a minimum.

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joeblack wrote: I can't stand

joeblack wrote:

I can't stand people who can't tolerate other's opinions  smiley

Thanks joeblack.  Allow me to pull up my soapbox for a minute.

To broker22:

Why do you bother to post here?  Apart from your occasional ideas there are only complaints and criticisms about others.  You seem to believe that most posters here are making predictions about the future when in fact we are exploring possibilities.  You seem to believe that trading success depends upon successful predictions when it is primarily a matter of "trade location" and risk management.  

I recommend you go back and read Mark Douglas' Trading in the Zone, particularly page 121.

It would be great if we could predict the future of market movements with certainty.  But we can't.  Learning to live with the uncertainty can be very challenging, I know.  One way I deal with the discomfort is to explore possible future market paths so that I can be prepared should they occur.  I don't want to react emotionally.  I need to prepare in order to act with confidence.  At present I only care to buy more gold cheaper than its current offer, and hopefully at/near a possible major bottom.  

The exploration with the methods I use is hardly garbage.  They have been time-tested over many markets for many years.  You may notice that I don't claim to predict the future.  I dare say, if you could see what is presented you might actually learn something, if you care to.  Many of my past posts have proved the usefulness of these geometrical methods.

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US Fed Data 2

Something fishy is going on.  Go back up and click on that link I posted above.  The spike down has been removed and the data series has been "discontinued".  That reminds me of something.  I seem to remember another popular series being discontinued about 2 years before the 2008 market crash.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M3

No one cares about how much total US currency has been pumped out into the markets by the Fed, and now no one cares whether the commercial banks are loaning to each other.  

I was born at night, but I wasn't born last night.

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