The setup for the big trade

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Solsson
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Solsson wrote: First Majestic

Solsson wrote:

First Majestic at 6,5 is a green light for me.

At 6,27 the little green button turned into a big red button with a sign "DO NOT PUSH" completely irresistible. I pushed the button so hard that I nearly broke my wrist ...

Inflation picking up?
http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485628&cust=global-basic&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Is the low in 9months too early, is it possible that Mother Nature is wrong?

I "improved" Argentus chart cheeky

Happy Valentine heart you need a big hart to survive in this market!

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I use this fund to forecast

I use this fund to forecast the future for gold&miners.

And these are the miners, not really penny stox:

So a little bit up from here and then ... a deflationary spike down or inflation straight away that's the question.

This is a fairly new Canadian youtuber (I suppose by his accent) explains the situation for us non experts.

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fyi

2hr April gold trading below Babson R1.  Note cl is mpl.

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fyi update

60m chart shows an hourly close over the r1 line.  Next hour still in progress (12:45 am ET) shows attempt to push that close back under the R1.  Daily chart r1 is at 1363.1 on Friday, which is 0.3 above evening's high (so not yet reached).  A wait and see situation.

kentucky
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Here we are

argentus maximus wrote:

brokerk22 wrote:
... You can go to his site and get better detailed analysis.  

Then off you go . He does timecycles, as do I. Enjoy what you discover there.

Personally, I prefer my own work.  But I wouldn't want to let that detail stop you leaving. Try to not come back the end of  Jan or Feb 16-18th.

Knocking on the door

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argentus maximus
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kentucky wrote: argentus

kentucky wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:
... the end of  Jan or Feb 16-18th.

Knocking on the door

Yes. The last two days have ticked a certain box, but outside the 24+ 24- hour window, so I wait and watch, and will reset stops when the close is visible.

This is the first good GV following ORB on monthly scale. Levels should have some importance afterwards.

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Update

Price is taking a peek above the 1.62 fanline.  Probing, testing the water...

https://s.tradingview.com/x/LbYQOkYC/

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Funline

I am watching this, the dollar looks ready for a drop here according to my H&S analysis. I call the neckline, Solssons funline lol and it's broken. We got a breakdown and a backtest, picture perfect for a continued drop imo. or ...

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60m chart update

Pete wrote:

60m chart shows an hourly close over the r1 line.  Next hour still in progress (12:45 am ET) shows attempt to push that close back under the R1.  Daily chart r1 is at 1363.1 on Friday, which is 0.3 above evening's high (so not yet reached).  A wait and see situation.

On Friday, price finally reached the daily chart R1 line value of 1363.1.  The price was exceeded by 1.30.

I have found that using the R1 value derived from the daily bar chart is preferred to using an intraday bar size as long as 2 pairs of m0 daily pivots can be counted on the prior daily swing.

After drawing R1 on the daily chart I selected 60m bars on the software, and the result is here.  The chart cursor line shows the hourly bar where 1363.1 was first reached (the bar high was 1363.1).  This bar closed at 1362.8, under the daily R1 value.  Next hour price went higher, but closed equally at 1362.8.  The equal close (or a lower close) under or on a target line value (after that value is reached or exceeded) is a sell trigger on any lower price.  So the sell was 1362.7 stop (or stop limit) with risk to a tick above the highest price.  Even more robust but rarely needed is a close beyond the extreme.

Please note that using the upper line (unlabeled, but it's the R1 line adapted by the online software when hourly bars were selected) gave a false sell signal earlier in the evening session.

Selling pressure picked up during the NY daylight hours.  Yet, daily volume on Friday was less than Thursday, even though we see an ORD on the daily.  A mixed message, but still bearish.

The reward to risk on this 60m chart trade entry is excellent (>35:1!) as the target implied by the turn at R1 is 1309 basis the April contract.  Why is a decline to 1309 potential reward?  Because the turn at/near Babson's 0-Y R1 line implies the end of a correction to the prior trend, assuming it is a possible p2.  This is, to my mind, Babson's greatest contribution to trading knowledge.  If the last 6 trading days have been a correction to the prior 10 trading days, the implication is that prices will continue lower to an equal or lower swing low.

Another way of saying this is, a third wave may lie ahead, having perhaps reached the end of a wave 2 on Friday.

Even so, I would always take a partial profit as price moves in my direction to insure no loss on the trade if stopped out.

This purely technical view contradicts the bearish picture of the USDX, I know.   We shall see.

I am no longer trading, as at my current age and state of health I don't have the energy (drive) required.  I must conserve myself for my work with patients.  But I pass on these technologies, as best as I understand them, so that you can conduct your own research.  Having free online tools makes such research easy.

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Oops

Fibonacci error. Wrong forum.  Please continue

Green Lantern
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Sorry

wrong forum.  Oops

Pete
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The "Willie Nelson" pattern

The WN pattern is perfectly illustrated by Friday's turn lower.  Simply put, the WN pattern occurs when price trades over the possible ML parallel (MLH, or UH for upper parallel in this case) but closes back below the UH.  Price has gone "off the road and on the road again."  (WN first coined by my Andrews mentor Ron Jaenisch.)  Formal stop is a close above the WN bar high.

The WN is only applicable when the ML is sloping in the direction of the assumed new trend (in this case, down).  If the ML were sloping upward, you wouldn't use the WN.

You can see that Thursday was also a WN day.  An entry there was not stopped out per the above.  But the other tool of the Babson R1 line proved a better choice if you wanted a 60m chart entry with far lower risk.  That was only available on Friday and illustrated in my prior post.

There are different tools for the job, and you have to find what works in a given situation.  Trading a p2 (for a third wave movement) is the simplest and most rewarding trade strategy.

I hope to buy more physical at another scale of P2 (monthly) and hold for a big W3.  Doing the least I can at a great stacking point.

Anyway, now we have two clear daily bar chart patterns that we are possibly at a p2 with more downside.  Short-term traders would look to sell rallies on the way down.  Those who want to do less trading would be short on Friday with a view to managing the position if/as prices decline.

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I am also watching this, the

I am also watching this, the good old GSR is close to a historical top:

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OT: SPH8

SP is the large futures contract for the SP500 that trades during regular trading hours, unlike ES. As such, it tracks the cash market very closely.

This morning, stocks are trading lower after having reached ml x R1 at Friday's high.  It's  quite possible that a new low will be reached and maybe exceeded for this correction that has been greater in price and time than all other corrections for quite some time (a Gann concept suggesting major change in trend).

The R1 is quite strong by virtue of the action line being mpl.  Gaps may be counted as a pivot pair in Andrews/Babson methods, so we can consider 5+ min-1 pivots in place on the daily chart.

Gold is also trading weakly this am, under the initial ml formed by the 60m m3 pivots x, y, and z (on the 60m chart).  These pivots are the last m3 pivots of the 6 day rally higher.

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60m gold follow up

Just wanted to point out that 60m gold made an ending expanded pivot formation on its way to the daily chart R1 line value last Friday.  This was basis m3 pivots.  This was additional evidence that a turn of some consequence was probable; the zoom at p4 suggested that price would decline to the p4 level at a minimum, per the zoom rule, after making a top (the 1 ml 2-3 is drawn in so the zoom is seen).

From the high at R1, price zoomed the new ml, called the initial ml or IML, which by definition slopes with the new trend.  A m3, 60m p2 has formed at the zoomed IML on the retracement back to it, and the IML continues so far as a resistance line.  Prices might trade within the pitchfork until a daily chart bottom is reached, with a daily chart (m0) correction to the upside to follow. 

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Market

Is not playing nice. Gold and silver starting to unravel again.  If support is tested then the likelihood of dropping down has a good chance. If you keep testing resistance and bumping off good sign that support will be tested.  You can't keep yelling fire when the monkey is not in the room.   The short is in the room.

Peal back the onion to see what is there, and mice droppings may be involved. Only then will you see that the turkey hasn't eat his beans.   And probably is not going to lay the golden egg any soon. 

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Market

Is not playing nice. Gold and silver starting to unravel again.  If support is tested then the likelihood of dropping down has a good chance. If you keep testing resistance and bumping off good sign that support will be tested.  You can't keep yelling fire when the monkey is not in the room.   The short is in the room.

Peal back the onion to see what is there, and mice droppings may be involved. Only then will you see that the turkey hasn't eat his beans.   And probably is not going to lay the golden egg any soon. 

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Realize

How long have you been hoping gold goes up? how long has your emotions been at play?  Only when the emotions are taken off the table will you see the reality.  Make your heart healthy.  Gold is not going to play nice for a while

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Realize

How long have you been hoping gold goes up? how long has your emotions been at play?  Only when the emotions are taken off the table will you see the reality.  Make your heart healthy.  Gold is not going to play nice for a while

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I have NOT been hoping gold

I have NOT been hoping gold would go up.

Until after a low late 2018 has passed by first.

I have suggested that we will see a major gold buying price-time point end of this year, for over three years. Buying prices come after the price goes down.

Hope is nothing to do with it. It's a mathematical calculation based on forces measured as precisely as is possible with the technology and information available. A calculation of probabilities.

There are other scenarios for what may occur if that gold forecast becomes incorrect. Everybody can be proven wrong by a market. These lower scenarios, which only come to attention's focus if gold moves strongly upwards are for a major inflection at end 2018, that means a breakout or a top at that time. I don't favour this outcome and have been extremely clear and persistent on this.

It's on the record, though not here. In July 2015, two and a half years ago, I disclosed the details to those few who contribute to the costs on my research. It's still tracking that path reasonably well up to the present.

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