The setup for the big trade

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Solsson
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Solsson wrote: First Majestic

Solsson wrote:

First Majestic at 6,5 is a green light for me.

At 6,27 the little green button turned into a big red button with a sign "DO NOT PUSH" completely irresistible. I pushed the button so hard that I nearly broke my wrist ...

Inflation picking up?
http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485628&cust=global-basic&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

Is the low in 9months too early, is it possible that Mother Nature is wrong?

I "improved" Argentus chart cheeky

Happy Valentine heart you need a big hart to survive in this market!

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I use this fund to forecast

I use this fund to forecast the future for gold&miners.

And these are the miners, not really penny stox:

So a little bit up from here and then ... a deflationary spike down or inflation straight away that's the question.

This is a fairly new Canadian youtuber (I suppose by his accent) explains the situation for us non experts.

Pete
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fyi

2hr April gold trading below Babson R1.  Note cl is mpl.

Pete
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fyi update

60m chart shows an hourly close over the r1 line.  Next hour still in progress (12:45 am ET) shows attempt to push that close back under the R1.  Daily chart r1 is at 1363.1 on Friday, which is 0.3 above evening's high (so not yet reached).  A wait and see situation.

kentucky
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Here we are

argentus maximus wrote:

brokerk22 wrote:
... You can go to his site and get better detailed analysis.  

Then off you go . He does timecycles, as do I. Enjoy what you discover there.

Personally, I prefer my own work.  But I wouldn't want to let that detail stop you leaving. Try to not come back the end of  Jan or Feb 16-18th.

Knocking on the door

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argentus maximus
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kentucky wrote: argentus

kentucky wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:
... the end of  Jan or Feb 16-18th.

Knocking on the door

Yes. The last two days have ticked a certain box, but outside the 24+ 24- hour window, so I wait and watch, and will reset stops when the close is visible.

This is the first good GV following ORB on monthly scale. Levels should have some importance afterwards.

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Rhythm and Price
http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analysis - global markets

UncleFester
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Update

Price is taking a peek above the 1.62 fanline.  Probing, testing the water...

https://s.tradingview.com/x/LbYQOkYC/

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Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

Solsson
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Funline

I am watching this, the dollar looks ready for a drop here according to my H&S analysis. I call the neckline, Solssons funline lol and it's broken. We got a breakdown and a backtest, picture perfect for a continued drop imo. or ...

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60m chart update

Pete wrote:

60m chart shows an hourly close over the r1 line.  Next hour still in progress (12:45 am ET) shows attempt to push that close back under the R1.  Daily chart r1 is at 1363.1 on Friday, which is 0.3 above evening's high (so not yet reached).  A wait and see situation.

On Friday, price finally reached the daily chart R1 line value of 1363.1.  The price was exceeded by 1.30.

I have found that using the R1 value derived from the daily bar chart is preferred to using an intraday bar size as long as 2 pairs of m0 daily pivots can be counted on the prior daily swing.

After drawing R1 on the daily chart I selected 60m bars on the software, and the result is here.  The chart cursor line shows the hourly bar where 1363.1 was first reached (the bar high was 1363.1).  This bar closed at 1362.8, under the daily R1 value.  Next hour price went higher, but closed equally at 1362.8.  The equal close (or a lower close) under or on a target line value (after that value is reached or exceeded) is a sell trigger on any lower price.  So the sell was 1362.7 stop (or stop limit) with risk to a tick above the highest price.  Even more robust but rarely needed is a close beyond the extreme.

Please note that using the upper line (unlabeled, but it's the R1 line adapted by the online software when hourly bars were selected) gave a false sell signal earlier in the evening session.

Selling pressure picked up during the NY daylight hours.  Yet, daily volume on Friday was less than Thursday, even though we see an ORD on the daily.  A mixed message, but still bearish.

The reward to risk on this 60m chart trade entry is excellent (>35:1!) as the target implied by the turn at R1 is 1309 basis the April contract.  Why is a decline to 1309 potential reward?  Because the turn at/near Babson's 0-Y R1 line implies the end of a correction to the prior trend, assuming it is a possible p2.  This is, to my mind, Babson's greatest contribution to trading knowledge.  If the last 6 trading days have been a correction to the prior 10 trading days, the implication is that prices will continue lower to an equal or lower swing low.

Another way of saying this is, a third wave may lie ahead, having perhaps reached the end of a wave 2 on Friday.

Even so, I would always take a partial profit as price moves in my direction to insure no loss on the trade if stopped out.

This purely technical view contradicts the bearish picture of the USDX, I know.   We shall see.

I am no longer trading, as at my current age and state of health I don't have the energy (drive) required.  I must conserve myself for my work with patients.  But I pass on these technologies, as best as I understand them, so that you can conduct your own research.  Having free online tools makes such research easy.

Green Lantern
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Oops

Fibonacci error. Wrong forum.  Please continue

Green Lantern
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Sorry

wrong forum.  Oops

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