Welcome to the updated TF Metals Report! We hope you enjoy the new experience.

We've changed payment processors, so any existing renewals will need to be re-subscribed after expiration. You will receive an email when this happens. If you have any questions, send a message through the Contact page.

Pailin's Trading Corner

42245 posts / 0 new
Last post
Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 1:11pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

figuring I'm done for this

figuring I'm done for this week, but I submitted a stink (not real smelly) at 10.30 for a possible end of day fade in DUST, 1/3d position.

lunch moment to reflect while flat. tomorrow makes 2 weeks since being back in trading, summary so far:

-4 trades so far. being patient and calling my shot. no urge to be back in, no regret at missing moves or not getting 'all' of it. the hiatus feels like it was right, i'm a much different trader than the rookie who took his beating from JAG.

-1.89 shaved from dust in the four trades, .55, .30, .50, .54 so far. considering it's a $10 share price, not bad.

-15% on the initial deposit and my brokerage gave me a truckload of free trades for coming back. goal is double my original deposit so I'm then playing with the house's money. we shall see

-time. I'd say somewhere around 25 hours invested. some of which i'd be doing any way just as a spectator. considering i like to keep up with it, i don't sleep much past 530am, and i like to read...it's been a good time investment.

-strategy. the no going all in on the first LBO rule seems to be working well. I've bought a second layer to lower the dca and i've bought into strength on the way up...so far so good.

-weakness: bear glasses.

this is a string of thought to put down on paper, more for me than anyone else. but, if a person can learn from it so be it.

MADCOW and HAPPYNOW: I like both of your positions, brass required to hold into brexit...hope you can babysit it and i hope you make a killing! GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 2:30pm
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

Brexit

Another impossible position. Who knows if Britain leaves or remains. Don't live there. Before 4:00 today, I will be shaving back some of my miners. I have profitable positions in MUX (which has been on fire), EXK, and SLW. I am going to sell at least half. Sure, maybe gold pops tomorrow after the vote. Or maybe it tanks. Playing it safe.

My Zika plays have so far disappointed. I am up on CERS, down on XON and even steven with INO. Frankly, the news cycle just has so much noise with Brexit, the tragic Orlando shooting and Trump's turd of a campaign. No room for the Zika story. But it's in the background waiting for a microphone as we get closer to Rio. Seven more cases reported in FL today. Estimated 80,000 in Puerto Rico. I am now focused solely on CERS and INO as both have just received large government contracts. If Brexit happens, I will add more in the event of a market crash. INO today is way off thanks to the buffoon, Jimmy Cramer. 

My other trade is short oil. RUSS is my preferred weapon. But it has been a total bust. I have no positions, but will pounce when oil rolls over again. And it will.

England votes leave, hell, I might even buy a little HL. And I fucking hate HL....

Good luck. Hope someone catches the right side of the vote.

Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 6:20pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Hey SSK...Like your thoughts

Hey SSK...Like your thoughts on CERS and INO, will put it on the to be researched list 

I did take a 10.47 one third position in DUST 5 mins before the close...Saw it fading and GDX up to 25.45, thinking GDX will come back either tonight post market or tomorrow pre market trading

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 7:59pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

10.47 position sold at 10.67

10.47 position sold at 10.67 for a .20 per share scalp. i'm flat. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 23, 2016 - 8:56am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

I've set 2 LBO's and both are

I've set 2 LBO's and both are really stinky. DUST at 8.25 and NUGT at 70.00 per. I doubt either get executed. 

My guess is remain. 

I'm flat until this gets resolved, unless my stinks get picked up. 

GLTA.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 23, 2016 - 10:28am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

INO

Tony,

Added INO this morning at 9.69. Current thinking: England remains. Media moves on to the next crisis: Zika.

Thu, Jun 23, 2016 - 3:58pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

SSK: nice pick up at 9.69,

SSK: nice pick up at 9.69, day's low was 9.54...currently 9.79 per. Totally agree with you that Zika will be a huge story dominating headlines once Brexit/Bremain passes. I caught just a few seconds on the radio yesterday, somehting about a house vote and Zika but I have no idea what they did or didn't accomplish.

DUST hit 10.30s as I was driving in for a late morning start. Then sometime later lower 10.20s. Now at 10.54 per. NUGT at 98.45 and GDX at 25.35....can't wait till this passes either way, just want to get to my seasonal play (or not) and move forward.

I have no idea how anyone could trade this...people are all over the map on it. Hats off to Turd though, he made a pretty convincing argument for gold moving up in his private to public post. Whichever way you think it's going, time is nigh for taking a position. With 10 minutes left in the trading day I'm still flat. My gut is telling me DUST but I'm aware of my bear perspective and simply put I'm not sure enough to put money on the table based on Brexit vs Bremain. I figure that the after market might provide an entry into DUST but I like selling not buying during the pre/post hours. Guess I'll just be flat and watch.

HappyNow and Madcow: Good luck, watch your stops, hope to see you post of your profitable conquest of DUST.

SSK: didn't you say you were DUST also?

I must admit, there is a part of me that hopes gold runs like a scalded dog....that would make DUST so much more of a play early midweek and for summer doldrums. But either direction, I hope it moves in extremes. A yawn would be worst case scenario. GLTA.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 23, 2016 - 8:03pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

took a half position in DUST

took a half position in DUST right before close of premarket. 10.39

CNBC and other's headlines say opinion polls say Bremain. I've figured Bremain, but i'm just hunching there. The polls were a tick in the Bremain column for me.

Then gold started gyrating pretty hard last 30 mins, DUST dipped on a rocket back up from 1250 land to 1267. 

In order to trade volatility you have to have a position. I went with my gut. 

If Brexit has indeed been getting in the way of seasonals and it's a Bremain vote, we should see a big downdraft in gold. Unless TF's writings are dead on, then it's the opposite. JMO...we shall see. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 12:47am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

Holy shite!

Wow, Brexit happens.

Can I have half my MUX, EXK, and SLW back? Well at least I have half. Prolly gonna see those gains completely offset by my Zika plays tanking. No moping, though. The game is about lessening risk.

What a night. Sorry Tony about your DUST. Gonna get fucking clobbered. Anything not gold is gonna get clobbered. 

Might be time to go full RUSS. Freaking finally. 

Night night.

Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 1:00am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

yep, DUSTers will take a

yep, DUSTers will take a beating no doubt. My guess is gap down to 7-8 per share, maybe worse. With such a 12 hour run gold will come back....some....the question is how much and how long.

I may do one DCA down half position at the open then watch. The key will be does the overall market downdraft take miners with it....highly doubtful. The other question is 1300, is it going to hold? I don't mind holding DUST for a bit for seasonals...we shall see. 

should have stayed at the gym just 10 minutes longer lol 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 4:31am
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

Cameron

So Cameron is stepping down, and the way I'm reading it that means he doesn't have to honor BREXIT vote, it pends until next parliament. Who knows on that though, certainly not me!

Nonetheless...the people have spoken, and "they" have let them (by not rigging the vote). And now Holland and France want their own referendums. So there's plenty to analyze in there!

GBP:USD hit 1.32 at the bottom. Um, that's the lowest since October 1985. Don't let anybody tell you this isn't a pretty big deal, even if "they" are able to walk it all back to sanity re: Cameron resignation, etc. One thing about UK and EU...they've never had a problem pulling out the pitchforks and torches when feeling dismissed by the unelected royals...so it's not as simple as "oops, we were just kidding, not a real vote anyway!"

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 5:00am
Big Buffalo
Offline
Joined: Jun 23, 2011
1154
4248

Brexit

Love it. Guess they got tired of paying for Greece, again, and again. 

I think I'm going to sell some silver today.

Ba-zinga!
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 6:27am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

not as bad as i thought.

not as bad as i thought. grabbed more (I'd be a buyer with both fists at these levels had I not bought last night) DUST, new dca is 9.49 and as bad as that sounds it's better than i thought it would be when i saw gold break 1350. If the pattern (who knows) holds true gold should get bid down somewhat in the next hour or 2. we shall see. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 6:36am
HappyNow
Offline
-
Canada
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1351
3110

Yes I got the vote wrong.  

Yes I got the vote wrong.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 7:21am
brokerk22
Offline
Joined: Apr 12, 2012
975
4265

@tonym9

Down 30% and not as bad as thought. You should quit trading and try something else. You somehow think you are going to make money on this DUST trade. Dude get real. Pailin good luck buying any of your metals back at lower prices. Trading your insurance is just pure idiotic in this environment. Also trading rigged market with technical analysis even worse.

Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 8:16am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

Pailin, So, how do we take

Pailin,

So, how do we take advantage of this currency shoots and ladders? Other than art, I mean. 

I think it's time to book a flight across the pond. Funny thing is, even at 1.35 to the Pound, London is still expensive as fuck.

Tony, take your fingers off the keyboard and tear off an arm. DUST is not a trade to make today.

Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 8:25am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

HappyNow: that's what makes a

HappyNow: that's what makes a trade. It is what it is. Seasonals will (IMO) appear once the shock of the Brexit subsides. The summer doldrums will do what they've done for many years. I get the feeling you know that already though...

It's going to be interesting to watch some other plays I've been eyeing. This isn't anything like '08, but there will be deals to be had. Those are buy and holds so a much different approach...dare I say traditional. Looking forward to casting the line with discounted bait. 

In the grand scheme of things, my hat is off to the UK voters. They may have freed the entire region from the tyranny of faceless decree. Other European countries will probably follow suit. My guess is the dream of a United States of Europe is going to fall apart. Good for the European working man. Good for freedom. Good for the motivated. Terrible for globalization and those who feed off of it. Somewhere the leaders of the European welfare economies have to be concerned. To have watched it unfold last night was amazing. Freedom celebrates.

Someday I might return for a vacation to Europe using the independent currency of each country...ahhh, Lloret De Mar calls. 

Now if the US can begin the process of ridding ourselves of decree... 

GLTA. See you once the shock has worn off the market. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 10:03am
padme
Offline
-
Philadelphia, PA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
288
846

Crazy day

Kitco site is down... 

Hi Sunnyboy!

Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 10:21am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

SSK you always call it

SSK you always call it straight. I appreciate that and I'm sure many others do to

The fade is here and the 1300 test approaches. I've set my LSO at 9.85 DUST on my 9.49 position. What happens at 1300 will dictate from here.

I'm prepared to chew off the arm if need be, but I don't have faith in gold's run up hence not chewing....yet. Even with Brexit. The shock will wear off and we move to the 'next' thing...my play is the 'next' thing being seasonals so I'm staying with it. We shall see. GDX not screaming says much.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 24, 2016 - 2:27pm (Reply to #41022)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

SSK wrote: Pailin, So, how do

SSK wrote:

Pailin,

So, how do we take advantage of this currency shoots and ladders? Other than art, I mean. 

There's no trade I'm taking except giving much consideration to strong dollar as EU/Euro collapses (over the next couple of years). That means metals in USD terms not playing much ball, but in other currencies --- GREAT PLACE TO BE! But then again, USD and DOW equities too...sure (which explains why g/s in dollar terms are not up 100% today - USD siphoning off the majority of the flow action, actually!)

I mentioned last summer (yes) that I was looking for a blue chip entry (for captive retirement funds) and patiently waiting, not for specific price but best "time" and price safe entry. A lot like seasonal metals that. Well I'm still patiently waiting. And collecting a whopping 2% annualized on the short term paper I've been in instead. Looks good today (duh) but not so much the last twelve months! BREXIT vote and actual BREXIT are two very different things, so there's no rush (for now).

Guess the answer for the trader that has to trade is run the various oscillators of your choice, with a long USD bias, and buy dips and sell rips. There should be plenty of volatility for at least a week?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

The TFMR Silver Round
Buying Gold

Recent Comments

by Thomas More, 2 hours 48 min ago
by boomer sooner, 7 hours 7 min ago
by sierra skier, Nov 19, 2018 - 11:47pm
randomness