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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jun 15, 2016 - 12:54pm (Reply to #40986)
madcow
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tonym9 wrote: DUST action

tonym9 wrote:

DUST action today was interesting---the lack of an opening drop and a hold of most of the day's gain. 

Its cause i set up a limit order at 9.50.... will never see that price again hahaha. Just like how i dipped in at 11 something thinking it was bottoming out, and it went lower. I should just post all my plays and everyone should do the opposite :/

Wed, Jun 15, 2016 - 5:56pm (Reply to #40987)
Sunnyboy
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Mad indeed :-)

Now I understand why you are called Madcow. Did you not know that there was a rate decision today and that Yellen was going to squirm?

To be honest I am sitting on 250+% profit on my China miner options and more than nervous (its a big chunk), but todays meeting was no brainer made me hold them this last 5 weeks when they dropped 50% (knew it was coming and should have sold to buy back). I did dump my miner stocks at 1300, too much risk for too little reward should have put it back in the options but had bills to pay.

I am hoping Pete's (on AM's thread) last post is right as he often is. My options expire in October so my finger is on the trigger but I see a gap up ahead in the stock's charts about 20% up from here which is about 70%+ on the options. Unfortunately there is also one below at about -10%/50% :-S

Hi Padme :-)

Woof woof woof

Thu, Jun 16, 2016 - 1:04pm (Reply to #40988)
madcow
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Sunnyboy wrote: Now I

Sunnyboy wrote:

Now I understand why you are called Madcow. Did you not know that there was a rate decision today and that Yellen was going to squirm?

To be honest I am sitting on 250+% profit on my China miner options and more than nervous (its a big chunk), but todays meeting was no brainer made me hold them this last 5 weeks when they dropped 50% (knew it was coming and should have sold to buy back). I did dump

Yeah, knew about the Yellen deal. ALso, my limit was hit shortly after hehehe, tho i havent looked today yet to see what mess it is.

My chinese miners are up as well :D

Thu, Jun 16, 2016 - 1:10pm
tonym9
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Madcow: 9.50 position in

Madcow: 9.50 position in DUST...good job on setting a stink bid for volatility. IMO you are well positioned.

I'm in at 10.03 DUST. Currently down 5%. My fault. Yesterday I tried to balance work schedule with trading...I know better. Set an LBO and it hit on the early part of the downdraft. I had a patient decide to be late and it wrecked my plan to be avail to babysit and adjust the LBO down, then set a stop loss once in!!! I still have dry powder for a second half position if need be, but I'm holding up on that move.

Short term I'm looking for DUST 11s on a slight GDX pullback and will probably sell there, re-eval.

Next I'm looking at positioning for the run to 17 levels to fill the glaring gap on the chart. Thats about as far as I'm planning right now. Once there cash out. If I'm right I'll be playing with the house's money at that point...the real position I'm working toward. I want to build a house money position for a big move in DUST but will have to re-eval GDX inflows, gold chart, etc to see if the seasonal timing is still out there, albeit late.

Put me in the column of UK stay in. I just don't see the Brexit happening. But it's looking more and more possible I will admit.

Oil is sending strong signals... 46.30s as I type

GDX had a gain on yesterday's news, but I would have expected much much more of a move for GDX based on Yellen. At a 90% up move in a few months, seems to me that it's time for a pullback. IMO yesterday's lack of a big uptick says much. Tiring? I believe so.

Overall markets didn't throw a party based on the punchbowl still being there. 

That DUST gap down from 11.24 to hi 9s looks tasty and the gap down from 16 to 13 a week prior looks even better. I fully expect today's gap down to be filled before the end of the day, or very very close to it which makes me evenish.

But...Gold broke through 1280, is now looking at a very healthy close above 1300...looks good on the chart. Sounds silly but reportedly large names in pm now... AVI G's last public writing...

I'm not married to DUST and will flip to NUGT at any time...not loyal to either, am loyal to following the directionals...

I still like the loss/win ratio on DUST. We shall see. GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 16, 2016 - 3:21pm
tonym9
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work sch'd just changed, the

work sch'd just changed, the rest of the day today and most of tomorrow are no good during the trading hours....had to cash out. 10.33 for a lousy .3o cents per share. That j o b thing is a pita sometimes.... will reestablish if can. really want to be active for tomorrow, expecting a GDX drop dang it

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 16, 2016 - 9:09pm
tonym9
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Avi G article. All DUSTers

Avi G article. All DUSTers should read this. Avi is setting up for wave 3. 

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/are-we-verge-melt-metals-complex-or-a...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jun 17, 2016 - 1:00pm (Reply to #40990)
madcow
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tonym9 wrote: Madcow: 9.50

tonym9 wrote:

Madcow: 9.50 position in DUST...good job on setting a stink bid for volatility. IMO you are well positioned.

I'm in at 10.03 DUST. Currently down 5%. My fault. Yesterday I tried to balance work schedule with trading...I know better.

Well that was my first stink bid. Im currently at 10.65 avg tho. My next stink bid is 8 handle, tho i may re-up at 9.50 it taps it again.

I sold some AMD shares to get that 9.50 buy a lil bigger.... of course AMD breaks its 3 year resistance and fires past it. :/ .... still in profits but damnit, coulda been more had i waited a day or 2 haha

Fri, Jun 17, 2016 - 5:41pm
tonym9
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10.65 isn't bad. Puts you in

10.65 isn't bad. Puts you in a good position should the gap to 16land fill

I wanted to be in DUST this weekend. Had no time to trade or watch today. At almost close I took a 10.19 position in DUST. 

I'm waiting for a Sunday evening pummeling of gold to carry over into US on a Monday before "seasonals" are called dead for this cycle. We shall see

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Jun 18, 2016 - 9:26am
AUandAGbull
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Martin Armstrong

Posted yesterday that the weekly bullish reversals for gold are 1315.80 and 1323.10, lets see how we trade this week

Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 6:54am
tonym9
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Woke up early cuz of the

Woke up early cuz of the stupid temperpedic my wife 'had' to have....JFTR don't buy one...hot 

Checked the overnight, looks like 1280 is holding up...sold my 10.19 DUST for 10.69 in premarket. Will try to take another position before the open... Current bid at 10.03, seems to be my number of late. Will up it to 10.25 tho

Nice to book .50 per share before my feet hit the floor.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 7:21am
tonym9
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1078 plumbed and DUST zipped

1078 plumbed and DUST zipped up to 11.0s in premarket. waiting on it, we shall see

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 9:31am
Gramp
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Good Start

Right on Tony,

That sounds like a great way to start the day yes .

~ Even a dead Fish can go with the flow ~
Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 9:40am
Wy So Lo
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Go

Go Tonym9

Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 11:41am
tonym9
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back in DUST at 10.34 just

back in DUST at 10.34 just now, layer only not all in

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 11:26pm (Reply to #40996)
HappyNow
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tonym9 wrote: Woke up early

tonym9 wrote:

Woke up early cuz of the stupid temperpedic my wife 'had' to have....JFTR don't buy one...hot

Glad its not just me. Really comfortable for about 45 min then it's like insulating foam stuck to every contour of your body.

Hope she at least is sleeping well. Good DUST trade.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Mon, Jun 20, 2016 - 11:28pm (Reply to #40996)
HappyNow
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tonym9 wrote:Woke up early

Dupe.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Jun 21, 2016 - 7:40am
tonym9
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Woke up early again (never

Woke up early again (never EVER buy a temperpedic mattress), waited till 5 and checked gold and it was 1282. Purchased more DUST at the premarket open for 10.74 new DCA is 10.54 per. Gold just tapped 1269 land, back up to 1272. DUST hit 11.os in the premarket. I'm goiong to hold this one. The 10 minute chart looks sick. Today may be the day but we shall see.

Remember your stop management...today looks like a day to be very watchful...GLTA

HappyNow: Yep, she's sleeping better than she has in a while. Me not so much. It's like laying on a sun warmed patio. Good for a few minutes and then, not. Put the ac on 71 and still roasting. ugh. 

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jun 21, 2016 - 1:41pm
tonym9
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not sure what to make of it

not sure what to make of it for short term trading.

yesterday was zzzz in the afternoon. it looks like today is setting up for the same. DUST has been 10.70-11.0s since the open, after the gap up. GDX is pretty quiet after 25low on the open. It seems Brexit is having an effect, if only to depress action in the US in afternoons.

with a 10.54 position in DUST a quiet day might just be what the doc ordered. i'll hold my 2/3ds position overnight to see if gold gets hit again around 3-6am cst and prolly sell in the premarket, unless it's down big. I don't want to hold any position into Brexit voting and would prefer to be out by early morning Wed...no way to predict it and my schedule gets tough the back end of the week. Holding tonight could very well result in a losing position as Asia could just as well bid gold back up to mid 1280s, but I'm thinking odds are on a lower spot gold than today's US close....assuming no Brexit continues to get pumped by MSM.

I will sure be glad to get past Brexit...I'm ready to see if my seasonal thoughts have merit.

This is pure supposition on my part but it's where my head is....this is more for me to get it down on paper than anything else so don't trade on it, WTFDIK, I'm just a screen full of words, so DYODD please..... : If gold touches 1250s before Brexit my guess would be next stop is a test at 1200 land, and fast. If that happens, and gold fails, sans Brexit, a run down via summer doldrums erasing the latest run should become the accepted path. If so, Bulls will be set back with another broken hearted play. If it runs before or during Brexit voting and holds 1300s, sans Brexit, one can make a pretty good argument that it's time to get out of DUST and that the seasonal play is dead. NUGT could run pretty far on optimism if nothing else, which can power the NUGT chart pretty far. This would play into Avi's statements about wave 3. IF the NUGT set up happens, I'll ride it as far as she'll go.

So the areas I'm watching after the Brexit thing has passed are 1300 hold (if gets there) for the bulls then run. 1250 (if it gets there) then 1200 for bears, then 3 digit spot by end of summer (which matches MA IIRC). The tug of war between the two possibilities could produce some great volatility between 1200 and 1325. If so, I'll take it all day long. I like that range, alot. I'll use good stop management and won't be afraid to take a small loss before it becomes a big one. There's always the next play if that range sets up.

We shall see. GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jun 21, 2016 - 11:10pm
HappyNow
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My 2 cents.  Everyone's

My 2 cents. Everyone's holding on Brexit. Last week there was sentiment that the leaves had a decent chance but it has been waning. As soon as it is clear (whether by counted votes or other) this will break.

my call fwiw is that they stay. So my short is staying.

Dont bring up the tempurpedic again. I get warm and clammy just thinking about it. :-)

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 7:43am
tonym9
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at 545 cst premarket DUST bid

at 545 cst premarket DUST bid is 11.26 ask is 11.30, spot is 1265.

Edit: I cashed out at 11.08 for .54 per share profit. Bid/Ask started to drop so I pulled the trigger. I might re-establish but doubtful

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

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