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The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Feb 22, 2016 - 4:32pm
SilverRunNW
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@Solsson

Wait for it. Wait for it.

The market is going to ass rape you. 

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 3:05am
Pete
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Musing on April Gold

Let's see if price continues to retrace to form a major pivot at/near the red dot. The time from P1 to the day of the red dot happens to be 38% of the trading days of W1 (we are currently about a third of the way through this idealized correction). If the correction continues in a tame fashion by breaking the 0-y line and declining to the red dot, we'd have the ideal proportions of a bullish butterfly pattern, and an ideal buy point. Maybe W2 low or wA of 2...near 1160.

So, there is also a good short opportunity if/as price declines below 0-y mpl with the expectation of the rl being reached...

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 5:20am (Reply to #8732)
Solsson
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SilverRunNW wrote: Wait for

SilverRunNW wrote:

Wait for it. Wait for it.

The market is going to ass rape you. 

I don't know if the second comment was necessary, are you an idiot?

I scaled in yesterday at $4.92, waiting for next entry in a couple of days if it's going in the right direction.

if it drops below 4.50 I am out. I don't know if the volume is significant, the price has dropped quite a bit.

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 12:43pm (Reply to #8734)
SilverRunNW
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...are you an idiot? Opinions

...are you an idiot?

Opinions vary.

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 11:57pm (Reply to #8735)
Spartacus Rex
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SilverRunNW wrote: ...are you

SilverRunNW wrote:

...are you an idiot?

Opinions vary.

Wrong answer.

You're supposed to say:

'It depends. How much does the position pay?'

(eg, take Obama for instance)

Cheers, 

S. Rex

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 5:15am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Ok, if not an idiot I am a

Ok, if not an idiot I am a fool ! Argentus Muximus provides us with world class material and my only comment at the time was "What a bearish chart". Clearly I didn't grasp the concept of the analysis presented (again).

Sigh, the black arrow should point to the black vertical trendline, not the red arrow. 

An enigmatic sentence for you all to consider, or primarily Laventing Laverne maybe, I know she loves a good riddle every now and then haha,
Do we need to break something in order to keep our beloved fractal without a fracture?

One step at the time, the key word here is fool ;-) and I am not aiming at any thread reader or writer.

Oh, one last thing, lets have an honest and respectful dialog here please, we all got the intellectual capacity to keep it decent, me included.

Have a nice day folks!

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 5:23am (Reply to #8737)
Spartacus Rex
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Solsson wrote: Ok, if not an

Solsson wrote:

Ok, if not an idiot I am a fool !

Oh, one last thing, lets have an honest and respectful dialog here please, we all got the intellectual capacity to keep it decent, me included.

Have a nice day folks!

Hvor er moro og humor?

Du begynner å bli gammel, muggen og kjedelig Snorri

Skål

S. Rex

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 9:21am
Byzantium
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Armstrong

As I watch the gold market knocking out successive resistance levels in currency after currency (and up 23% so far this year in GBP!), grinding away at obstacles to its rise, I was musing on Armstrong's views, loosely summarised as being that gold cannot really moon-shot while there is faith in the dollar ...... the enormity of global capital has nowhere else to go other than the dollar, for the foreseeable future.

Well sure, but I am also reminded that in terms of size, at current prices, the gold market is just one toe on an elephant, and that the silver market is not visible on that elephant at all without a microscope, at current prices.

So sure, tiny markets by comparison, but if just one other toe of the elephant loses faith in stawks and bonds, what then happens when some of that vast global capital pool seeks shelter in the tiny metals market? And what do the algos running the rest of the elephant do when they see the metals market outperforming everything else?

I don't know whether Armstrong addressed this dynamic or not, anybody know? I think I am with Bo Polny on this one; if the cartel loses control, then we might finally see a rocket launch of the ages.

Just thinking out loud, should probably go for a walk.

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 5:10pm
SilverRunNW
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More Armstrong

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-ratios-are-they-really-worth-much/

So what kind of "expert" says this about gold.

So let’s begin with your assumption that gold rallied in both 1930 and 1980 because people lost confidence in government. This was absolutely a FALSE statement. During the 1930s, the dollar RALLIED; it did not decline as in the 1980s. Why? Because the collapse in confidence was external and not internal. Most of Europe defaulted on its sovereign debt, so did China, and South America as usual. As other countries defaulted, capital flowed into the dollar as the safe-haven. Gold actually declined and fell below the official gold standard value of $20.67. Gold did not rise: it was the dollar rally, not gold, which went to a premium. The jump in gold to $35 was Roosevelt’s FIAT devaluation of the dollar, which was actually government declaring the value by decree.

He's talking out both sides of his ass. These 3 statements cannot all be true:

  1. During the 1930's, the dollar RALLIED.
  2. Gold actually declined and fell below the official gold standard value of $20.67
  3. The jump in gold to $35 was Roosevelt’s FIAT devaluation of the dollar,...

Items 1 & 3 are completely contradictory. What's really true in item 2 is that the DOLLAR DEVALUATED AGAINST GOLD by 70% (69.3275278%). From $20.67 to $35. Do the math!

So how can anyone trust anything he says concerning the gold market? I believe it was Rob Kirby who said that Martin was beat to an inch of his life while in prison. I do believe he was innocent on his charges, and was being held on contempt charged. Maybe this obvious ERROR is a signal to all gold investors. "I cannot be trusted concerning gold, ...but.. go buy more gold". His release could have been (IMHO) with the agreement to disparage gold and gold investors. Well, he's done a great job disparaging gold investors.

Darryl Robert Schoon has a good article mentioning Martin Armstrong's legal history. Well worth the read.

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1455205462.php

Jump down to the section titled: MARTIN ARMSTRONG: THE MAKING OF A CRIMINAL

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 6:15pm
Byzantium
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Technical mathematical ruminations

Hey SilverRunNW, thanks for the post; all good stuff.

I was prompted by something that you wrote though, to respond to the topic of Roosevelt's devaluation against gold. Not directed at you, just prompted by your post.

Everybody keeps referring to the devaluation of the dollar to gold from $20.67 to $35, as a 70% devaluation, and to me it is clearly a 40% devaluation. The logic being (and ignoring the cents): If it had been revalued to $40, then by the same flawed popular logic, a 100% devaluation would have occurred, and you just lost 100% of your purchasing power. Which is total nonsense, you would have lost 50% of your purchasing power. $40 used to buy you two ounces, and now it only buys you an ounce; that is a 50% devaluation. And the actual devaluation did not go as far as $40, it went just to $35, which was a 40% devaluation of purchasing power.

Is this just being pedantic? Not to me. The 70% claim is just factually wrong, and there shouldn't be any ambiguity in what is dry arithmetic fact. Sure, $14.33/20.67 is around 70%, but the actual devaluation was 14.33/35, being 40.9%. If use of English language is correct in calling it nonetheless a 70% devaluation, then it is anyway in that case not the same as a 70% loss in purchasing power. 

I have never personally, seen any author report this correctly, and the 70% loss of purchasing power myth just somehow became a blogosphere truism.

This is where maths and use of English language collide; we all see the same thing and describe it differently.

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 7:24pm
SilverRunNW
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Well, at least you had this

Well, at least you had this part right wink:

Sure, $14.33/20.67 is around 70%

I would contend that this is all you have to really look at.

So on April 1, 1933, I went to my bank and gave them $20.67 for a St. Gaudens $20 1 ounce gold coin. Yeah, I'm that old.

But on January 30th, 1934, FDR signed "The United StatesGold Reserve Act". So I go into my bank and buy another St. Gaudens 1 ounce gold coin and it now cost me $35.

So, it cost me 70% more dollars to buy that same coin. Let's do the math:

$20.67 x .70 (.693275278) = $14.33

$20.67 + $14.33 = $35

Now, in this example, the banker and myself would have been thrown in jail because on April 5, 1933 FDR signed Executive Order 6102 and we could no longer buy that gold. But, given the fact that if I could have acquired that gold coin at the new price of $35, I would have had to fork over 70% more dollars to do it. Not 40% more dollars, which would have been:

$20.67 x .4 = $8.27

$20.67 + $8.27 = $28.94

Just the way I see things.

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 7:37pm
Byzantium
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@ silverNW

wasn't aimed at you SilverNW; every other author I have ever seen on the topic sees it your way too. Andy Hoffman describes for example, that many currencies have lost over a hundred percent of their purchasing power in the last few years. ! 

I was just noting, in poorly worded fashion, how collectively we see the same thing, and describe it so differently. Which doesn't matter so much, except for those things that we don't collectively see, and rely on others to describe to us. But surely of no consequence; we humans never misunderstand each other. ;-) 

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 9:48pm
SilverRunNW
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@Byzantium

I was prompted by something that you wrote though, to respond to the topic of Roosevelt's devaluation against gold. Not directed at you, just prompted by your post.

Understood. It's all good!

Thu, Feb 25, 2016 - 7:03am (Reply to #8732)
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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SilverRunNW wrote: Wait for

SilverRunNW wrote:

Wait for it. Wait for it. 

No, I couldn't wait any longer, scaled in again after a naive, silly move yesterday, a gap up in GDX.

The wave structure in 60min Gold chart is pretty clear:

arrghh, my file storage is full, anyone know how to delete a file, yes I've tried the ? help and pushed delete but nothing happens.

Thu, Feb 25, 2016 - 12:04pm
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I have been busy for a few

I have been busy for a few days with govt agency documentation compliance requirements and with installation of refreshed and better data analysis equipment. This is necessary as what I do seems to have overtaken the capacity of my last generation of office technology! But this stuff just sucks up available time!

Great posts everybody and I like that chart Pete.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gold ... intraweek (daily) breakout of the last inside range week. Temporary (prior to this week's close) higher weekly low and higher weekly high in place. = tentative but inconclusive short term bullish swing continuation hints. So far ... OK.

But .... time is ticking on this swing.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On another note .... didn't the G-V (posted in Setup at previous month's beginnings) catch this bullish sentiment change for gold really nicely! Lots of violence brewing, and it's not done . But the geo rises to meet the violence now, whatever covert projects are still in the pipeline spew out into public consciousness, and then they both subside after week 1 of March, with the significant daily peaks protruding from a somewhat lower weekly plateau after that.

The question is ... what happens to the precious metals markets after the next G-V peak? Ratios charts well worth our scrutiny are gold: silver and gold:platinum. Silver: platinum anyone? I'll be looking at that.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 6:43am (Reply to #8746)
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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argentus maximus wrote: But

argentus maximus wrote:

But .... time is ticking on this swing.

Yepper, just look at the extended B-wave for both Gold and GDX. It's almost the same size as S.Rex homeland cliff Preikestolen:

https://www.virtualnorge.com/preikestolen/preikestolen.html

Scandinavia is beautiful, have a nice weekend !

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 11:13am
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Well the end of month futures

Well the end of month futures rollover bus passed our stop overnight without much trouble for gold, though silver fell off at the market makers exacted their turnstile fee from non-delivery longs.

This has shoved the GSR into new highs, running 82.107 at last check. Which confirms that gold's worry valuation is giving it strength during this G-V peak (which carries into today by the way), a strength that silver has yet to generate.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 12:07pm
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Here are the gold silver

Here are the gold silver ratio charts that matter.

Above monthly spot GSR

Below is a longer term quarterly Comex continuation contract view.

The different delivery months and open interest dynamics cause the Comex to look a bit different from spot from time to time ....

That's a thirty one year period. You could put a rising trend over the highs after the year 2000 in the Comex version. Anyone want to buy a ticket for the trip to 100?

So what about all those stories to the effect that silver is really really scarce? I guess they need a little more time for the scarcity to manifest.

Looking at it the way I do, rather than fundamentally, next month looks interesting basis monthly charts, with a two following months possibility sort of attached to that view, but it's a big chart, we're already in interesting prices.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 5:14pm (Reply to #8749)
SilverRunNW
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Calling a spade a spade

Looking at it the way I do, rather than fundamentally, next month looks interesting basis monthly charts, with a two following months possibility sort of attached to that view, but it's a big chart, we're already in interesting prices.

Let's just call a spade a spade. This thread isn't what it used to be. AM used to actually give directional potentials and more understandable information. It's now turned into an advertisement for Norm's gold trading service.

If it wasn't for Pete's awesome charts and explanations, I'm not sure there's any value left in this thread. Yes, there are other valuable posters here, including Solsson, but no one beat's Pete's charts!

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 6:58pm (Reply to #8750)
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SilverRunNW wrote:.... Let's

SilverRunNW wrote:
.... Let's just call a spade a spade. This thread isn't what it used to be. AM used to actually give directional potentials and more understandable information. 

You are absolutely right. This thread has changed. It changed when I started buying heavily several months ago, and I said so here. I bought gold, not silver at the time. Good or bad decision? 

Now I comment about silver and platinum, but do not consider it quite right yet.

Nowadays I show the information visually rather than say it out loud and simple. This is my logical reaction and response for the people who copy it on other sites less than two hours after I post here, and who never give credit for where they got it from.

So ... did you notice anything in the lower chart in my above post? Just try looking. Look really hard and you might see something that is very clear. The scenario in the chart and the alt scenario in the text are both presented easy to see and at the same time intentionally hard for the lazy to skim and get. I'm not going to type it for copiers who then put their name on my work, nor for computer text reading web sampling algorithms, nor for market makers on the opposite side of my trades!

I owe you nothing whatsoever but nonetheless give you cost free material of a quality unavailable in the market for under two and a half grand a month. Stop whinging that I haven't spoon fed it to you! Use your eyes and intellect and see what is here. Still don't get it, try asking by PM!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

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