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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 5:20am
JAL
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Closed @$1220...

~470% Banked.

Have some other positions but...

That's another story!

GLTA!!!

Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 7:15am
Byzantium
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The power to move markets

We all often think that the markets are uniquely spiting us. Just after we sell, the price goes up. Just after we buy, it goes down.

The prize can legitimately go to Urban Roman, who caused a platinum price collapse after he bought his platinum phyzz.

As I look at the charts right now, gold at $1236 and platinum at $947. That is nearly a $300 spread ($289 actually, or gold at a 30% premium over platinum). This is unprecedented price action.

Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 12:32pm
pailin
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Armstrong:Gold

Good stuff today-

When we look at the markets, they are clearly trying to speak to us. Many markets avoided their year-end numbers like gold closing ABOVE 1044 level. This we warned meant gold was not as weak as it might appear. The Dow closed lower warning there too a correction was underway.

So far today gold opened at 1197 and ran up to the 1215 area hovering around our opening pivot point for today which was 1207.57. Keep in mind that the resistance stands in the 1226 area but the real key here is to accomplish a closing above 1209 on Friday. Then we can get a pop up about $100 which would convince many it has turned. But alas, the stars are not quite aligned just yet. Our yearly resistance starts at the 1309 level so this is how far we can push gold right now. Beware, a break back below 1179 will warn the market is turn negative again.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gol...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 1:11pm
SSK
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Best start to a year in forEVER

Or for as long as I can remember. Long gold /NUGT and short oil/long RUSS just has been a juggernaut of profit. I'm barely even touching this. Just peeling off 1/3's in profits and adding into support.

RUSS seems about ready to pop up to 60 again. Last time oil was at 27, RUSS was 60. Nothing but air in the chart to Jan highs. 

I hope everyone is making some serious coin right now. The way this works, esp miners, is to catch those 5-6 days in a rally that go absolutely fucking bonkers to the upside. Like the last 24 hours!

Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 6:44pm (Reply to #40869)
AUandAGbull
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Re: Armstrong:Gold

Long time forum lurker here

I do find MA fascinating to read, wish I had taken his advice when gold was nearer to 1700 :-)

What bothers me about this rally in Comex gold is that I don't ever remember seeing a $50 up day in gold, ever, let alone a more than 4% daily move. Either the Commercials have lost control of the (Comex) asylum (maybe there really is something behind the 400+ leverage of paper to physical?) or they are purposively setting up the longs for for a monster 'bull trap'

Dunno, but the sudden gold bullishness (Cuban buying GLD calls, Gundlach calling for 1400 gold,...) makes me nervous. But then again, bull markets allegedly climb a 'wall of worry'

Thu, Feb 11, 2016 - 8:29pm
padme
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Say Hi to everyone

Nice to see lots of familiar names still around. Congratulations to good tradings!

Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - 7:08am (Reply to #40871)
pailin
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btcgoldbull wrote:Long time

btcgoldbull wrote:

Long time forum lurker here

I do find MA fascinating to read, wish I had taken his advice when gold was nearer to 1700 :-)

What bothers me about this rally in Comex gold is that I don't ever remember seeing a $50 up day in gold, ever, let alone a more than 4% daily move. Either the Commercials have lost control of the (Comex) asylum (maybe there really is something behind the 400+ leverage of paper to physical?) or they are purposively setting up the longs for for a monster 'bull trap'

Dunno, but the sudden gold bullishness (Cuban buying GLD calls, Gundlach calling for 1400 gold,...) makes me nervous. But then again, bull markets allegedly climb a 'wall of worry'

What should bother everyone is the GSR was climbing all day yesterday. Gold was dragging silver "up". Then after the close, as both sagged, GSR was falling; gold was dragging silver "down". Armstrong says gold short covering. I agree. And the room to breathe is 1309 at least. Think the hammer is gone? No. Just letting the air pocket up to 1309 "fill" (with suckers). Half the move is already over, people will get on now and see a small move, not sell it (pictures of BofA's 1550 in their brain) and get swept out to sea. You were either already on board from much lower (and looking to thin into 1300) or should just stick to bullion on drops (ignore the pops!)

I'm hoping to be really wrong, btw. This seasonal I'm dumping all my metals positions (and possibly doing a GSR swap first if it goes over 80) at the 'top' (such as I perceive it!) There should be a good re-buy low late June-Aug, and if Armstrong is right maybe another early next year? Also have a lot of captive retirement assets in short term bonds, will buy something DOWish (per Armstrong) if we see 13100 ;)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - 7:29am
tonym9
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Very interesting action, good

Very interesting action, good for those still plying money from mr markets hand. 

Glta

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - 7:41am (Reply to #40874)
pailin
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tonym9 wrote: Very

tonym9 wrote:

Very interesting action, good for those still plying money from mr markets hand. 

Glta

Stick to the plan Tony! Making regular, steady income that keeps pace during this storm into 2020 (and probably 2032) will be worth a lot more than some trading gains (typically followed by even larger losses heh heh!) Hope your course is going well (or finished?) and you're able to put that investment to work for you :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Feb 12, 2016 - 7:43am
pailin
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Armstrong, unnamed asshole :)

His targets for today:

Our Opening Pivot Point for gold tomorrow is still above the market just yet coming in as 1272.40 while in the Dow it lies at 15497.74. In the Euro it rests at 1.1381. Keep in mind this current trend can continue into Monday. So in gold watch the 1309 level, 15370 last year’s low in the Dow with key support at 13100 and important resistance in the Euro at 116. The more extreme we get, the higher the probability this has run its course very quickly in line with the February Panic Cycle.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/opening-numbers-for-february-12th-2016/

You may also want to review this, I found it very informative:

The Postponement – Slingshot Move

Posted Feb 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, at the Conference you said we could conclude this in the first quarter if we get the alignment. It does not look like we will get the alignment [...]

Read More

And finally, watch out for this guy. He's quickly becoming a new-breed of KWN sort and this pop in metals has only emboldened him (danger Will Robinson, danger). All logic is thrown out the window...all-in silver or dieeeeeeeeee! (ya know?!)

If I’m right and this is the start of what happened starting in late Oct.2008, guys like Bron and [Jeffrey] Christian and Trader Dan are going to end up looking like the biggest assholes in the world. Although I think that trip is booked and the train has already left the station, no matter what the price of gold does.  – comments from me to some long-time colleagues

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/deutsche-bank-burns-silver-is-the-trade-of-the-decade/

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Feb 19, 2016 - 11:31am
SSK
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Oil market is not dissimiliar

Oil market is not dissimiliar to precious these days. Rather than Fed puff and bluster, crude has OPEC puff and bluster. I'm been buying RUSS on every rumor-based bounce, but the correlation short crude via short Russia ETF just hasn't borne fruit. So I switched it up for the more direct short oil with DWTI. I still have some RUSS, and I expect it will pop if crude pings back down to 25-ish. But RUSS isn't listening to my two cents! It stubbornly underperforms.

DWTI + 7%

RUSS + 3%

I am also long the miners with NUGT , ABX, SLW and MUX (which I added to this morning).

This strategy has worked very well this year. The short oil side is far more predictable and on trend (short the rumor and buy the build reports). The precious side is, as ever, totally unpredictable and really depends on holding overnight, waking up and praying to Ganesh for good fortune.

Ha! My bid for more RUSS came through as I typed this post . @ 34.29.

Fri, Feb 19, 2016 - 4:34pm (Reply to #40877)
SSK
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ANd stopped out of RUSS.  I

ANd stopped out of RUSS. I can't figure this one out. Good weekend everyone.

If there is an everyone here any more.

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 9:03am (Reply to #40868)
Urban Roman
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Re: The power to move markets

Thank you, I always like to help out when I can.

Tue, Feb 23, 2016 - 11:32am
csquared13
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Good stuff SSK. I know

Good stuff SSK. I know there's that old saying of add to winners and cut your losses short, but I can't ever seem to do that with miners. I sold MUX already and booked my 20%

Still sitting on longs in BP, CSCO, KO, RGR, SPY, TSM.

So far CSCO, KO, RGR, and TSM are my winners...probably going to peel off a little SPY to add to the winners. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 10:23am
pailin
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GSR

So anybody trading this? The paper long GSR trade is long gold; short silver. The opposite if you want to short GSR.

I broke every seasonal rule in my book and bought a bar just now at 82.54 GSR which is pretty much tapping the 83.78 peak of 2008. That's the highest GSR in the last 21 years (haven't looked at wider charts yet!) My next step will be to start swapping gold bullion for silver, higher. Some out there calling as deep as 100:1, even 120:1 at the outside. A different game here...

The one anybody can play is: if you're buying bullion these days for the long-term, it has to be silver at these over 80 levels :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 3:43pm
eyeswideopen
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Joined: Jun 29, 2011
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Felt good?

Eh Mr. P.?

I've been picking up a little here and there for awhile. Always feels good. I'm paying sales tax when I buy locally, but the prices are fair. JM Bullion is also a favorite.

This time of year is spendable cash time so I'm thankful for the paper smashers. I'll be buying all the way down (if the seasonals work this year).

Wishing everyone luck and health

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 4:36pm
Sunnyboy
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470% banked

JAL

Rock and roll, I am at +100% but not yet banked, kudos to you. I hope we have one more leg up before any major correction.

Padme, Ahhhhhh, woof woof

SSK, nothing to understand just ride the waves, up and down, pretty sure you and Tony Montana taught me that :-)

Woof

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 6:07pm
Urban Roman
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Teh platinum thing

So, yeah. I saw the Manx Nobles at Texas Precious Metals and just had to have one.* (yes, I know, this isn't coin collecting) Platinum was cheaper than Gold and sliding ...

So, on March 10, I went ahead and spent about $1206 / Oz. Shortly, Pt had a local bottom around $1100. TPM ran out of Nobles. And you can see where it has gone from there. Pd and Pd are more likely to follow the BDI than Au.

Now, TPM has these cute little pictures of Platypuses on coins, for about $1006. Hmmm . . .

* 4, actually

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 1:31am (Reply to #40881)
silverwood
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Is a 80/1 or greater gold/silver ratio sustainable?And why?

pailin wrote:

So anybody trading this? The paper long GSR trade is long gold; short silver. The opposite if you want to short GSR.

I broke every seasonal rule in my book and bought a bar just now at 82.54 GSR which is pretty much tapping the 83.78 peak of 2008. That's the highest GSR in the last 21 years (haven't looked at wider charts yet!) My next step will be to start swapping gold bullion for silver, higher. Some out there calling as deep as 100:1, even 120:1 at the outside. A different game here...

The one anybody can play is: if you're buying bullion these days for the long-term, it has to be silver at these over 80 levels :)

Looking at a 30 year gold/silver ratio chart from about 1990 to 1995 gold/silver ratio traded at or above a 80/1 gold/silver ratio and that was the only time in recorded history that it occurred. Does anyone know why? Since then 80/1 was the upper resistance and it only touched that level briefly in 1996, almost in 2003 and then in 2008. Now we have 83/1. So what can keep a 80/1+ gold/silver sustainable? Are we about to write a new chapter is the historical valuations of gold and silver? What are the reasons silver is becoming historically less valuable in relation to gold? As a silver and gold investor I have been asking myself is it time to trade my gold for silver? You can view the g/s ratio chart here...https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio-historical-chart

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 5:03am (Reply to #40885)
Spartacus Rex
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silverwood wrote: Looking at

silverwood wrote:

Looking at a 30 year gold/silver ratio chart from about 1990 to 1995 gold/silver ratio traded at or above a 80/1 gold/silver ratio and that was the only time in recorded history that it occurred. Does anyone know why? Since then 80/1 was the upper resistance and it only touched that level briefly in 1996, almost in 2003 and then in 2008. Now we have 83/1. So what can keep a 80/1+ gold/silver sustainable? Are we about to write a new chapter is the historical valuations of gold and silver? What are the reasons silver is becoming historically less valuable in relation to gold? As a silver and gold investor I have been asking myself is it time to trade my gold for silver? You can view the g/s ratio chart here...https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio-historical-chart

Are you sure you are reading that linked chart correctly silverwood?

Because it clearly indicates where in Feb. 1991 the GSR nearly hit 100:1, and more importantly, in Dec. 1979 whereby the GSR fell to below 15:1

Cheers, 

S. Rex

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