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The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jan 13, 2016 - 4:24pm
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Tomorrow 14th is an

Tomorrow 14th is an inflection for certain stock indices according to my work. I'll be working late to try to figure out how far it seems to go. . G-V is high, right through to end of Jan in a series of raggedy elevated levels. I suppose 17th is a bit higher than the rest, but basically it's all high for a week, eases a couple of days and rises gradually again towards end of month. Hard to pick the exact extremes. A general time for anger, and competition for place.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 13, 2016 - 7:09pm
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SLV weekly projection

 SLV weekly projection update

Of the four favoured scanarios, two are shown. The upper has timed the December low precisely at mid December.

The following event is a probable weekly swing lasting to third week of February which I highlighted.

However the market is churning, and shows no indication is we are still on the upper or "alt" projection. I suspect we may be switched at end of year to the lower, and want to exercise caution about early bullishness. But it's much too soon to judge basis this chart and this asset regarding change since the new year kicked in. Until then last indication was SLV tracking the upper alternative and that's the situation until I see different

Tomorrow may bring a break from the two month trading range to decide direction and choose - confirm scenario, hopefully for a couple of months.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 4:45am
Wy So Lo
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Hey you traders

Dan interviews a guy at future money trends youtube, Tres Knippa. Very confident how to make a fortune.

(sounds like three dogs, sorry couldnt resist.)

Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 7:35am
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Down Under support is getting tested

 This looks interesting:

All ORDS price meeting fate today

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 8:00am
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GLD VAP update

 On 12 December I last showed this one.

A month and two days has since passed and an update seems appropriate.

I placed support at 100.01 in last month's chart if I remember correctly.

The December low for GLD was 100.23.

Short term retest held short term higher low now in place.

A more serious intermediate term retest is probably being planned by late bears around now, or for execution from a price somewhat higher than GLD is at the moment. Cue volume when that happens.

But there's an ST low, and if we get to end of Jan circa present levels it will grow into a 2M low. It could be a long 17 days. We'll see.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 11:46am (Reply to #8544)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote:A very

argentus maximus wrote:
A very big thanks once again to those who took part and shared with everybody.
I will have another go at this 
argentus maximus wrote:
 Thought moves markets. We think and then buy or sell or do nothing. The money flow from the decision changes the price. So we need to look at decisions and thoughts inside ourselves.

From where came the "spark"? Are we clear on this?

I am crystal clear on this I want independence for me and my family, not luxury, be my own lead.

argentus maximus wrote:
 
  1. Is playing the game of fantasy football with your personally chosen Dead Presidents Dream Team rewarding or entertaining or what benefit does it give?
  2. The so called sheeple, people who have not woken up 
  3. Do people who are really awake play games like this too - or is it just the sheeple who are supposed to be the only ones asleep?
  4. Can a person wake up and still be fast asleep though they talk about being awake?
  5. What does playing the Dead President's Dream Team game have to do with this?
  6. There is another game called "We're So Lucky To Be Awake While Everybody Else Sleeps" ... Must that game only be played by people who are fully awake? Partially awake? Or would an awake person refuse to play that game?
  7. How would such a person refuse to play and be polite and not make others cross or emotional, like eg frustrated with them?
  8. Is playing games a diagnostic tool one might apply to oneself to learn anything?
  9. Does playing games prevent a person playing LIFE? Is LIFE a game or not?
  10. While we play "Ain't It Awful" we are watching life. Is "Watching LIFE" itself a game or is it LIFE?
  11. What is this place really for?

1.-10. Lets go to nr. 11 directly:

If only JFK was alive we would now have world peace, no crimes and cold fusion reactors haha. This place is here for all of us who wants to quit playing games or being played. Getting trapped in playing games or being played is preventing us from life. There is an endless parade of game players on internet/youtube, repeating the same message over and over again. After a while it feels like a complete waste of time to listen to them.

So what's it like to being awake? Looking at van Gogh's painting Starry night it describes the endless cycle of life. Ying-Yang swirl is the same thing as the morning/evening star a perpetual pattern that keeps repeating it's cycle year after year. Brings order to chaos and chaos to order a balancing force. A natural pattern that includes everything, me and you, TPTB, centralbanks the 1% of 1% etc. we are all humans and act according to the natural law of mother nature.

Being aware of this you know that your time will come and you are not easily disturbed by all the various stuff going on, just sit back and relax, gold balancing bonds balancing stocks an endless flow of wealth.

ouroboros_tao_dragon.jpg

The more things changes the more they stay the same, there is nothing new under the sun.

After the end there is a fresh new start, the question is where are we in the dragon cycle right now?

Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 12:16pm (Reply to #8539)
banman17
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re Vincent Van Gough and Rorschach Test

I really liked your comments on the AM blog about all the waves in the paintings of Van Gough and Hokusai as well. Lots of deep stuff there to think about, especially about who is enlightened/awake. I like to think I am awake in certain areas since I question my beliefs - about religion, institutions like marriage, happiness, the reason we are here at all, what am I doing with my life. Boy, did that open up a can of worms. But the thing I realize is how much there is to learn and how much of my life I have wasted through idle amusement. But wait, I thought that was part of happiness! LOL. So we need to enjoy what we are learning, and luckily, I am a teacher and can share this curiosity with students. There is the ability to awaken their curiosity, but the limits of education are imposed by our Ministry of Ed. But if it is so good, why don't we produce geniuses or teach creativity very well. Well, what is a genius then? But don't they say that being a genius is just hard work, or in other words, 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration. Or could we say that a genius is someone who possess an insatiable curiosity, and that person then follows that curiosity to satisfy it for him/herself, without taking anyone's word about reality. Hmmm, who could fit this? Let's see - Galilaio, Sir Isaac Newton, Tesla - what about Steve Jobs? Was he a genius. I think so. What about Elon Musk. I'd have to say yes to him as well. Now did our education systems produce them. If so, why is there not more of them. It seems our education system was modelled after the army training model, teaching conformity to produce good little followers. And this is coming from a teacher! LOL. Well now, am I doing my job would be a good question to me. I'll have to think about that for a while. Well, in the meantime, there's a good interview by Tim Ferris on this at this blog I plan to listen to about teaching and reality - it may be worth your time as well:

Eric Weinstein on Challenging “Reality,” Working with Peter Thiel, and Destroying Education to Save It | The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss

Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 8:53am
silver66
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awake or asleep

Awake in the game of life

AM has posted very interesting questions and many have responded to his request for thoughts. I have read them all but been unable to post mine due to a busy schedule. Not being able to post does not mean I have not been thinking about his questions.

This whole awake/asleep concept is very intriguing to me. As I have reflected on the question I have had to look at my ego and if I have been using the idea of me being awake vs others being asleep as a way to make myself feel superior to others. My conclusion is that I have been doing just that. I have been fortunate to examine my thoughts in what I consider is an open and nonjudgmental way. By feeling superior to others what I have been doing is externalizing my validation of self to forces outside of my control. I only have dominion between my ears. My sense of self is an inside job. Perhaps in this game of perception management the other team has been more skillful than I.

I have also noticed that that I have been saying and thinking SHOULD a lot. I find that interesting as I am always telling the junior silver66’s to not should on themselves. When you think or say should you are 1: in the past and 2: wanting things to be different then they are. The game of life is to live it!!Not re-live it. Perhaps that is the goal of the puppet masters, to get us away from the present. In fact this moment we have right now is the only moment we have. Heart beat to heart beat living in the NOW

Coming back to this idea of awake or asleep I think that I have been confusing having more “information” than others as constituting being awake. When what it really is, is I have more information.

There are four levels

Data

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

If I am more aware/awake or have higher consciousness perhaps I have been on the incorrect level (or maybe the correct level)

The next idea I have been pondering is what I do with the level I am at. Am I to hoard it or give it away? To me, to keep something you need to give it away

Information comes from external sources and can be more easily manipulated, whereas wisdom is something you own on the inside. It can still be manipulated but I suggest it is harder to do. Active contemplation, meditation and being still are all techniques that I utilize in my quest to live in the now.

That’s enough for now

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 10:36am
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Integral Mindset ...

… have followed the latest dialog with interest – for those with the inclination/time, suggest reading anything by Ken Wilber who is on the leading edge (IMO) of describing the bands of human consciousness and our ability to move up those bands with sentient awareness – Wilber’s view is that as you move up those bands, your worldview changes and ability to think/make decisions escalates, etc.

Now I’m back to patiently waiting for the ‘big trade’ to emerge in the PM’s …

Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 2:55pm
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Fun price moves today. Lots

Fun price moves today. Lots of publicity too in the retail area. Plenty of media coverage. CNBC gave Peter Schiff some kudos today for getting it right. It looks climactic for several reasons. The G-V peak for mid-month is spread out a bit, but with the 24 hour window around the higher levels being before and after the weekend, and the latter part of the coming week. I think short interest in the metals is looking rather vulnerable in the circumstances.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 3:14pm
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Comex Gold in Euros update

It's been a while since I updated this major gold cross here. Somehow my gold sterling and gold euro work got sidelined from the thread while other matters gained relative importance Gold in Euros is looking ... well not so bad at all.

Check it out:

Draghi is good for gold. Unfortunately I can't say the same about the Euro.

Things seem to be reversed for the Fed and gold and the dollar. Well that swing will go so far with the big push it's been given and it will begin a return arc soon enough. I'd prefer if gold in Eur got all the way up to the pink or above it, before the dollar softens and XAU-EUR starts to make a longer term swing to locate it's new lower trading range limit. (Which is where the EU Central Banks and sovereign wealth funds presumably become AU purchasers). But I don't get to choose!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 6:30pm
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AUD USD

 Got hammered with the real Chinese economy club. Should have bought those monkeys monday.

Sun, Jan 17, 2016 - 12:45pm
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Playing games

Just got this in my inbox:

I’ve just uncovered something extremely time-sensitive. Please read this short message in its entirety.
Soon -- perhaps just weeks from now -- I believe markets will be hit by the third and biggest currency shock since the currency wars started in 2010.
It’s going to be a hard stab in America’s back by one of our closest “allies”.
Absolutely no one is expecting this
Yet, when this sneak currency attack hits financial markets in the next few weeks

  • Stocks could flash crash by over 10% in a matter of minutes, causing a selloff…
  • Oil prices could crash even lower than $35 per barrel…
  • Some financial institutions might go bankrupt, taking savers money with them...
  • The U.S.'s most powerful financial weapon will be destroyed…
  • America’s biggest “frenemy” will gain the world’s #1 financial advantage…
  • And a full scale war between a region's two biggest powers could explode. The U.S. might even get dragged into the fighting..

mmm, smells like Saudiarabia vs. Iran.

The game being played here is called "You are special, do not mention it to anyone else"

Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 3:24am
Solsson
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Ok, my guess was correct, Jim

Ok, my guess was correct, Jim Rickards talked about a Saudi Riyal devaluation in a near future, maybe in 2-3months.

The US stabbed Saudiarabia when the lifted the sanctions against Iran in 2013. Now it's payback time, the Saudi's will skip the peg against the dollar this year according to Rickards. The peg has been in place for 30years.

The way to play this is to buy an option in a Turkish etf. He also mentioned an interesting thing about the Sunni Saudi, will soon be surrounded by Shia. Iran in the north, Iraq has a Shia government, Syria Assad is Shia, so is Hizbollah in Lebanon and Yemen Shia rebels is trying to gain control.

After that it was promotion time, about his IMPACT product and I stopped listening.

How will this affect gold? A stronger dollar is not good news for the price of gold, but in the longer term, maybe increased geopolitical violence in the region will help gold as the goto asset as a safe haven.

Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 6:22am (Reply to #8560)
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Thanks Cottonbelt. Will do.

 Thanks Cottonbelt. Will do.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 6:38am
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A little follow up on my

A little follow up on my above post of January 14, 2016 - 12:35pm #8547

The All Ords pierced the lower of it's two long term support levels on the inflection day.

Horizontal support is gone and currently being pulled back to. Here is a DAILY showing the pullback:

So All Ords is below daily support, below weekly support A and, on an intraweek basis above weekly support B, and weekly support B has been penetrated briefly.

The short term rally has a lot riding on it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 20, 2016 - 7:14am
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AM

This is right up your alley, choice points, 17 and 56 year cycles of conflict and much more with Greg Braden

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/649805#comment-649805

Fri, Jan 22, 2016 - 12:11pm (Reply to #8568)
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The S+P and the stock market...

I have not been in the trader forum much, so if this post is in the wrong thread please advise me where I should move....

If we assume that the S+P 500 is over priced and will see a correction how best to profit from this. If we see a long term decline like the 2000 dip how best to profit from this using Put options.

I did the following... I purchased the Historical option close data on the SPX index from 2000 to 2004. I then wrote a program to go through the data from the point the SPX was down 20% in June of 01 to the bottom in October 2002.
I looked at ALL possible put option trades where:

  • there was a least one daily trade (Ie did not trade options that were thin)
  • I adjusted for bid-ask spread
  • I adjusted for days of duration in the trade. IE if one trade made 100% in 10 days it had a score of 10. If it made 25% in two days it had a score of 12.5.
  • I also eliminated all trades shorter than 2 days.

Using this I then printed out the most profitable possible option trade for each day.... 

I Might create a heat map of trade profitability.....

Thoughts on this whole idea in general?

A tiny bit of the results:

06-18-2001:SPX: 1208.43 Strike = 1100 (-108.43) Held:94 Expire in 96 days
06-19-2001:SPX: 1212.58 Strike = 1100 (-112.58) Held:93 Expire in 95 days
06-20-2001:SPX: 1223.14 Strike = 1100 (-123.14) Held:92 Expire in 94 days
06-21-2001:SPX: 1237.04 Strike = 1150 (-87.04) Held:91 Expire in 93 days 
06-22-2001:SPX: 1225.35 Strike = 1125 (-100.35) Held:90 Expire in 92 days
06-25-2001:SPX: 1218.6 Strike = 1075 (-143.6) Held:87 Expire in 89 days 
06-26-2001:SPX: 1216.76 Strike = 1075 (-141.76) Held:86 Expire in 88 days
06-27-2001:SPX: 1211.07 Strike = 800 (-411.07) Held:86 Expire in 178 days
06-28-2001:SPX: 1226.23 Strike = 1165 (-61.23) Held:13 Expire in 23 days 
06-29-2001:SPX: 1224.38 Strike = 1175 (-49.38) Held:7 Expire in 22 days
07-02-2001:SPX: 1236.72 Strike = 1200 (-36.72) Held:4 Expire in 19 days
07-03-2001:SPX: 1234.04 Strike = 1200 (-34.04) Held:3 Expire in 18 days
07-05-2001:SPX: 1219.24 Strike = 1160 (-59.24) Held:6 Expire in 16 days
07-06-2001:SPX: 1190.59 Strike = 1075 (-115.59) Held:76 Expire in 78 days
07-09-2001:SPX: 1198.78 Strike = 1075 (-123.78) Held:73 Expire in 75 days
07-10-2001:SPX: 1181.52 Strike = 1075 (-106.52) Held:72 Expire in 74 days
07-11-2001:SPX: 1180.18 Strike = 1075 (-105.18) Held:71 Expire in 73 days
07-12-2001:SPX: 1208.14 Strike = 1075 (-133.14) Held:70 Expire in 72 days
07-13-2001:SPX: 1215.68 Strike = 1195 (-20.6801)Held:3 Expire in 8 days 
07-16-2001:SPX: 1202.45 Strike = 1075 (-127.45) Held:66 Expire in 68 days
07-17-2001:SPX: 1214.44 Strike = 1075 (-139.44) Held:65 Expire in 67 days
07-18-2001:SPX: 1207.71 Strike = 1050 (-157.71) Held:64 Expire in 66 days
07-19-2001:SPX: 1215.02 Strike = 1195 (-20.02) Held:5 Expire in 30 days
07-20-2001:SPX: 1210.85 Strike = 1110 (-100.85) Held:4 Expire in 29 days
07-23-2001:SPX: 1191.03 Strike = 1075 (-116.03) Held:59 Expire in 61 days
07-24-2001:SPX: 1171.65 Strike = 1025 (-146.65) Held:59 Expire in 88 days
07-25-2001:SPX: 1190.49 Strike = 1050 (-140.49) Held:57 Expire in 59 days
07-26-2001:SPX: 1202.93 Strike = 1100 (-102.93) Held:56 Expire in 58 days
07-27-2001:SPX: 1205.82 Strike = 1050 (-155.82) Held:55 Expire in 57 days
07-30-2001:SPX: 1204.52 Strike = 1075 (-129.52) Held:52 Expire in 54 days
07-31-2001:SPX: 1211.23 Strike = 1075 (-136.23) Held:51 Expire in 53 days
08-01-2001:SPX: 1215.93 Strike = 1075 (-140.93) Held:50 Expire in 52 days
08-02-2001:SPX: 1220.75 Strike = 1075 (-145.75) Held:49 Expire in 51 days
08-03-2001:SPX: 1214.35 Strike = 1075 (-139.35) Held:48 Expire in 50 days
08-06-2001:SPX: 1200.48 Strike = 1050 (-150.48) Held:45 Expire in 47 days
08-07-2001:SPX: 1204.40 Strike = 1100 (-104.4) Held:44 Expire in 46 days 
08-08-2001:SPX: 1183.53 Strike = 1050 (-133.53) Held:43 Expire in 45 days

Reasonable men adapt themselves to the world, unreasonable men adapt the world to themselves, therefore all progress is due to unreasonable men. -(George Bernard Shaw)
Fri, Jan 22, 2016 - 8:25pm
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derivatives

my day began as a normal day...doing normal things (i'm retired so that means that i have coffee and a english muffin and then i read awhile...and now, at the end of the day, i am awash in news of derivatives...

it began with a link to a interview that max keiser did with a gentleman named stephen kendal. i don't typically watch max keiser, but i found this intriguing...and i wanted to know more.

the derivatives portion of the show begins at about 12:32...

Keiser Report: Whiny Ragequitting (E865)

Who is Morgan Stanley and Why Its $31 Trillion in Derivatives Should Concern You

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/01/who-is-morgan-stanley-and-why-its...

Sat, Jan 23, 2016 - 2:50am
Pete
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DX monthly fwiw

A rally to the 104 area would be a logical top to the dollar's correction in its long term bear trend. Maybe gold makes a final low (before a major rally) around that time.

I notice that price turned nicely at the first reaction line (w.3 high), and anticipate that if the index continues up a pivot at the second reaction line would be significant.

Fib relationships are confirming this target area.

Price is not making the latest ml (not strong); found support this month on the sh and looks in good position to continue to new highs. Trading below the sh after a new high would show weakness of the uptrend and probable early reversal.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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