Pailin's Trading Corner

42247 posts / 0 new
Last post
Tue, Jan 12, 2016 - 12:12pm (Reply to #40826)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

csquared13 wrote:Just made

csquared13 wrote:

Just made me think of you P

https://www.arcadeexpo.com/

Here's the list of pinball machines

https://www.arcadeexpo.com/collection/

Let me know if you're thinking about coming! 

Wow wotta list of games! No way I'm going all the way to CA though (especially on 2 days notice)...bummer :(

There's some pretty rare Gottlieb late EM games there: Rock Star and Strange World. Hit The Deck is a slightly more common version of my exceptionally rare Neptune.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jan 12, 2016 - 5:49pm
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

Added to SPY longs yesterday

Added to SPY longs yesterday as well as the mutual funds in the work retirement accounts.

Tomorrow I'm opening positions in KO and possibly CHL. (edit: may add to RGR too) 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 7:14am
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

stay logical ;)

Reminder from Martin to keep your head screwed on tight.

Gold – No Time Left for Conspiracy Theories

Posted on January 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

COMMODITIES-GOLD-METALS-PRICE-SRILANKA

To some, this is a religious battle. To others, it is just a time to rip off a lot of people by selling fantasies and sophistry. I have stated this many times, so here it goes again: Gold rises when people lose confidence in government. It has nothing to do with inflation. So, you start to worry about government survival or who’s going to win a war when gold rises — not before.

Short term, we still have the risk of gold going under $1,000 per ounce. It’s going to flip when everything is right — not before. It will probably max out at $5,000 per ounce or perhaps $6,000 at best. That we will not know until we have the low and the projection angle from that low. We’re dealing with a very profound event, religion aside. Such events of political-economic trend resets come around every 309.6 years. The last one was the global revolution against monarchy which began in the United States.

If you just step back and look OBJECTIVELY at what is unfolding from electronic currency to G20 demanding info on everyone and every penny that changes hands, then you can see where the future is headed. We do not have a democracy; that is total nonsense. The president appoints the heads of all departments. Nobody stands for election right down to the head of the Federal Reserve.

In Europe, you have the three-headed dragon they call the Troika — the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). None of those three members heads have EVER stood for election. They too are undemocratic appointments. So the European population cannot even vote for their future.

George-1778-Tory-Confiscation-Note-r

Gold will respond ONLY when the majority sees the crisis unfolding. Just because you may understand it and see the logical outcome does not mean that the bulk of the population will. During the American Revolution, they actually issued currency backed by assets confiscated from “Tories” or those who supported the king against the people.

There is no time for nonsense conspiracy theories or other sophistry. This is about a major shift in political economic trend, which is far more important than the job to sell gold by people pretending to be analysts with nothing new to add to the issue other than inflation, fiat, and the theory that all paper currency is evil.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 7:19am
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

oil and Houston

Tony glad to read you are keeping your options open and taking on new learning. Not sure how RE will work out for you, but sounds good, even in a downturn with tons of churn the need for appraisals should be high.

Oil is definitely dead for a while. Not sure how much of the price action last two years is organic (demand driven) vs. paper-pushin' (political games) but one thing is for sure - we are in a deflationary economy, real usage is down. (And supply via fracking etc is way up.) There was going to be pain at $110 oil long anyway. $30...seems like overkill. But only because $100+ is a sticky number, not cuz I know anything about anything. The global economy is weaker imo than 2004, if oil is 'everything' to the global economy, then it should be at least as low as then and maybe much lower. Maybe?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 4:50pm
eyeswideopen
Offline
-
Inlet, FL
Joined: Jun 29, 2011
249
1372

Worth a Mention or Two...

Ira does several daily commentaries and is a worthwhile watch for both student and professional. I believe it was Atlee who turned me on to Ira some years ago. Occasionally you'll get a passing moment or two of his personal opinion regarding the macro picture or a relevant headline. Hope this has value for regulars and lurkers alike.

https://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures/featured

I also catch McAlvany pretty regularly. Weekly commentary and often some excellent insight from guests.

This link is an interview with Ian McAvity and covers a wide variety of subject...

Ian McAvity : The Death of the Petrodollar | McAlvany Commentary 2016

One Powerball winner sold here locally. Unreal.

Peace

Thu, Jan 14, 2016 - 7:23pm
JAL
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jan 18, 2013
701
907

Long $Gold @1078.25 (inc. spread!)

Bust open my piggy bank...

(The Bullsh-t fund is not what it once was.)

Nothing more 'til we're higher or lower.

GLTA!!!

Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 7:05am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

There's WTI at mid

There's WTI at mid 29's...ugh. The mid 20s look to be a certainty. UCO at $5? Prolly 

China devaluation = low-mid 20's? Prolly.

Deflation is coming with a vengeance...the very thing Greenspan was so fearful of. 

The drumbeat of war grows louder as pay-up time draws near. Interesting times no doubt. 

Houston RE starting to crack...I was at a 1.2% loss. Now it's a little over 2% in a short time (via zillow, not the most accurate I know) from spring 15 high. I expect a 25% hit, btw...but thats still green overall from my 3/09 purchase but...

UCO looks like a flyer at $5 for a destabilized ME play

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 9:38am (Reply to #40833)
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

tonym9 wrote:I expect a 25%

tonym9 wrote:

I expect a 25% hit, btw...but thats still green overall from my 3/09 purchase but...

Tony, I know this is real money to you so don't think I'm being glib (I'm not) but...let's not forget the lesson of JAG. The top of Houston RE is gone, now it's a matter of getting the eff out with something left in your pocket. Not the time to try anything too fancy or hope (pray) for a bounce. You sort of knew this last year but didn't make it happen (again not glib, I suffer this same weakness all the time on both large and small investments). So now what, stay in a loser or preserve capital and find another way to survive and thrive? Unless you need this place to live in for very specific timing reasons, dump and rent as soon as feasible. Knowing only what you've posted here about your private life, I know this is not easy...cars...children...and who knows what else complicates a big move, renting storage and downsizing to a (likely) temporary situation. At best. All without much of a plan (any?) for what comes next...basically just duck and cover. But it is a viable strategy, and those guys tend to survive, even if it's only until the next shelling. Ya know?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 11:13am
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

Yep P, dead on. wifey and I

Yep P, dead on.

wifey and I have decided to stay n pray...not a good strategy. The timing is just awful, and the first priority is not interrupting the youngests high school years = trapped. Renting is not viable, all in increase of $600-800 a month plus util increases for summer ac bills...the rental market is NUTS here right now. Easily a 1/3d to 1/2 added to rents from 09 when we bought...add in storage etc...not viable. It'll correct as prices come back to earth, but by then my youngest is out of school and we leave Htown anyway. 

Best I can hope for is that my "nice" neighborhood doesn't crash as hard as others but that's wishful thinkin. 

I can absorb a 25% hit, hoping it doesn't get that bad...he said sarcastically. Even at 30% we are still ahead when I figure comparable rental living exps since 09. Much more than that and I start to lose frn. 

Ugh. 

When we decided to stay I knew I had to figure out some absorption if it all went bad...hence the home inspection move. It's something I can do "in addition" to my regular gig and its fully controllable and easy for me. More importantly is I enjoy it and see it as my part time retired gig in 10 years!

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 11:18am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

RUSS -H to the bank

Holy shite. RUSS is on freaking fire this morning. Shorting oil via Russia is my trade of the year. 2016 is looking very good so far to SSK. I freaking wish I had more as I (wisely?) sold two thirds to lock in nice profits (just not windfall profits). Anyway, nothing beats a 20% one day pop on top of days and days of gains.

RUSS is outperforming DWTI (which I have a small position) considerably. Sorry Vladimir.

I may grab a few hundred shares of NUGT as a nibble if it falls much more under 21. Bid is in at 20.55.

Fri, Jan 15, 2016 - 4:08pm
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

NUGT

Don't know whether it's going to pay off come monday, but I bought a couple hundred shares of NUGT as it got slammed at the close. 20.65. 

Sold the last of my RUSS. 73.07% gain.

I will pile back into RUSS the minute oil rebounds based on some analyst's/country/OPEC prediction for higher prices. Their talk is always gainsaid by rig counts and build reports.

Have a great weekend.

Sun, Jan 17, 2016 - 7:36pm
pailin
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
4313
15417

3% gap down WTI

Uh...bad open for WTI (and Brent and CAD) ;)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 10:34am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

Kicked in the NUGT's

Wow, first trades on NUGT were 21.30. In a blink, it crashes. So hard to make $$$ on NUGT! Stopped out for a loss but not until $19.87. There were no bids. 

Miners might be pointing to a colossal fall in gold. It's peculiar: gold is up $5 in the last 48 hours (of trading) yet NUGT has dropped 25%. Something's gotta give. Gold drops hard or miners rebound. Former more likely.

Ringing the final bell on RUSS was a smart trade. Dipping toe into NUGT, a bad gamble. 

Good luck all.

Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 11:56am
kenmasters675
Offline
-
Blue Bell, PA
Joined: Aug 29, 2012
210
895

hey SSK....you think miners

hey SSK....you think miners can fall much further from here?

i think it's really oversold, and gold i set up for a HUGE drop but maybe miners bounce back with gold dropping. Not sure, this is ugly.

Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 2:37pm
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

I'm staying out of it

Ken,

I don't understand this action. Miners decoupled from price of gold. That's nothing too new, but the power of the selling and extant of the losses is jaw dropping. For me, it's the classic scenario of "I don't know what the hell is happening" so I better stay out.

From following this for years, when miners act this funky and counter to the metals, it usually portends quite a drop in the metals. 

Just peeked again at NUGT-- near session low again (down 14.5%) with gold up .90 cents. Go figure

Be afraid. I am.

Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 9:28pm
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

KO longs looking okay during

KO longs looking okay during this broader market weakness. I plan to add to it this week. "Add to my winners" is my motto for 2016. This has always been a weakness of mine....buying on the way up that is. I hope to rectify that this year. 

CHL I didn't get to open the position, but I am firm on doing so as early as tomorrow. 

Solid advice from SSK on the miners. Many hands here have been sliced and diced trying to catch those falling knives.

PTC vets might remember an ol' dog called JAG that many of us had to take out back and put a bullet in...lol. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jan 20, 2016 - 10:53am
SSK
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1806
4200

Miners

WTF are the miners telling us?

Gotta say, just watching NUGT this morning has got me scratching my head. 

Wed, Jan 20, 2016 - 11:08am
Urban Roman
Offline
-
Jollyville
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1729
6496

TPM has shiny things

https://www.texmetals.com/australian-platinum-platypus

Last time I bought a shiny thing, as I recall, they were around $1200. Goldmart doesn't have much Pt in stock, apparently.

Wed, Jan 20, 2016 - 11:46am
csquared13
Offline
Joined: Sep 13, 2011
1149
1305

ES broke August 24 lows of

ES broke August 24 lows of 1819.25 this morning. Dow and Nasdaq not there yet. Careful. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jan 20, 2016 - 2:11pm
tonym9
Offline
Joined: Sep 27, 2011
1490
2492

the freefall in WTI is, well,

the freefall in WTI is, well, ... wow. based on WTI pm have a way to go yet imo

UCO is starting to get me to itchin...like load up the truck itchin. Its 6.50ish now. Not a big fan of long term holds, but at these level it is starting to look like an awesome ME play. Still thinkin on it, but this one will prolly draw me back into the game. Low $20 WTI should be sub 5 if not 4....one thing goes wrong in ME and its an x bagger

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

The TFMR Silver Round
Doc and TF Partnership Advertisement

Recent Comments

by Maestro, 6 min 49 sec ago
by Outback, 8 min 48 sec ago
by Outback, 24 min 4 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 36 min 9 sec ago
by fluxplus, 45 min 27 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 52 min 4 sec ago