The setup for the big trade

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argentus maximus
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Hi SilverBelle: We are not

Hi SilverBelle:

We are not about to learn who "Satoshi Nakamoto" actually is or was. There have been plenty of other parties with greater power looking into that matter and they either didn't solve the problem of if they did they are not telling what they know.

But it's not actually required to know everything. The motivations are usually discernable vis the subsequent facts and the Qui Bono principle. I will extrapolate outwards from and interpolate to fill the gaps between the scant facts available to me.

So who promoted the brand name of Bitcoin, so it would not fade away into obscurity?  Looking back and allowing for the more significant data to be unrevealed in a search, I look for innocuous data which can provide me with circumstantial evidence, and that circumstantial evidence may be tested against later occurring events to raise or reduce it's accuracy rating, while always allowing for some doubt to remain.

The first records I find are geek forum related, and early discussion papers as in by Nick Szabo, one of various candidates for Nakamoto, whose blog is here: https://unenumerated.blogspot.ie/2017/

Dominic Frisby thought it was Szabo and said so in an RT Keiser Report, while acknowledging that he had no proof around 2014-2014. You will note that Max Keiser who had a good eye for enthusiastically selling a silver bullish story to retail by web media, returned to the Bitcoin story later.

The earliest discussions wander into technical forum discussion about how it works, and early product placement into the hands of techies and tech writers. Wired, for example, wrote about it. This is product placement and product development in my eyes. Then it should have organically risen or faded according to some average profile of new products. At a certain stage discussion  began to come out of Stanford, and soon after the Economist ran a piece.

That is enough for me to form my first working hypothesis.

The first corporation I find was : https://bitcoincapitalcorp.com/ which is substantially owned by Nadir Energy & Mining Corp. No information from that direction yet, possibly never will be.

As for regulation, the loose regulatory leash with which BTC has been indulged can be contrasted with eg Silk Road site. This says, just like non regulation of strange gold trading characteristics that higher powers are involved on that side of the trade.

Basically the thing that stares back when one looks at BTC is the lack of volume. Things that go up on low volume are usually bought by novice investors, and after they buy the asset off the insiders the trend reverses. You never know, this time could be different. But I'd never risk my money on anything for which I can not make an estimate of the risk.

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UncleFester
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Pete, AM

Pete...spot price hourly view of what I posted yesterday with fanlines.  The blue overhead resistance dates back to the 2011 peak.  One fanline coincides with an inverted H&S whose breakout could complete wave4.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/8LfSbidJ/

AM...I seem to recall that you thought $1237 had some significance in the past.  If you traded on that yesterday, congrats to you.

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argentus maximus
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I think 1236 was an important

I think 1236 was an important level. However, I am considering my position on this very carefully. The thing is, I consider the risk of a breakdown to lower levels following this end of year pivot to be probable. So I am short term bullish longer term bearish.

So my main choice is whether to buy annual weak price which is here and now, or wait in the hope of a far better end of decade weak price, which may or may not appear.

Because purchases of physical are for holding rather than trading, I think I will re-split capital into separate timescale allocations for this circumstance. That allows me to begin averaging in on whatever declines I see occur during the coming 12 months. If they don't come, well I'll deal with that as best I can.

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The setup for the big trade

AM,

In your initial post you indicated a possible 1000% increase in the price of gold. Do you still see that as a possibility and if so in what time frame?

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So now you are saying gold is going nowhere for another 2 fucking years.  Wow!  "another low at the end of the decade."   FUCK I hope you are wrong.

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I think I was talking about

I think I was talking about finding a 1000:1 leverage trade on a smaller increase in price, rather than a 1000% absolute price increase. Not that it couldn't happen, in markets unbelievable things are possible.  But if for example the elites and the financial sector can confiscate 10% of depositors money, that would bring their excess borrowings down to sustainable levels. (ECB source) They will take what they can get! So remembering Dalio's "A Beautiful Deleveraging" proposal, which was followed pretty closely by central bankers, I think it is reasonable to think that deleveraging by austerity, or to rephrase it: stagflation and tax, reduces the total amount of currency devaluation required for the elites' exit strategy from the mess they created. And austerity holds gold down. It may outperform but the massive price increases required would be reduced.

But that doesn't incorporate confidence, alterations in the level of which made 2007-2009 so dramatic. There is the undiscounted (into the present price) factor what can make gold surge in ways not expected by the central bankers and their political class buddies. So fundamentals are not required, sentiment change  can do much all on it's own.

Let's see it get to 1450 and above that first before assuming the big one is on! I want to buy low one more time before then - if I can.

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@AM

Of course it is easy to make a prediction as such when it has been almost 10 years since it has done anything.  What is another 2...5...10.   It seems as though another two years of a $200 range is impossible to me.  But what do I know.

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brokerk22 wrote:So now you

brokerk22 wrote:
So now you are saying gold is going nowhere for another 2 fucking years.  Wow!  "another low at the end of the decade."   FUCK I hope you are wrong.

Nah! I am working on a possible low at end 2018 exceeding end of 2017 for value purchasing. There is a fresh possibility the annual lows can flip and occur mid year to shake seasonal traders off the scent, and I look for that possibility too. So how about two really good buying points after this month? Now-ish, about June-July 18, and Oct-Dec 2018 into Jan 2019.

And in between the lows are situated the upswings towards highs you and I both want to see.

It's all hypothetical until it starts happening naturally.

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argentus maximus
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Well nobody knows until

Well nobody knows until afterwards. I do have reasons for expecting that upswings after Feb 2019 can enlarge over what we have seen in recent years. Talking about gold here. I will update the long term silver during the quiet period during the Xmas holidays to see if it has changed much.

EDIT: I suspect that trading range is done. Breakouts from it (after such a period contained) can build up power to extend and this is my biggest concern at the moment. If it breaks down I will become very risk averse for at least a hundred bucks, maybe a bit more, stand aside till I get  value on support and then come in as hard as I can afford with the allocation to that scale. If it doesn't this is the fortnight to be shopping. Always a difficult choice!

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@AM

Obviously you don’t think 2018 is finally the year of consequences and the year we finally get new highs in gold.  I see that you think 2018 going into 2019 is the pivot and as expected you’re right in line with Martin Armstrong you pretty much go along with his work I have noticed.  Guessing from your post you are thinking market collapse end of 2018 and gold tanks with it,  central banks print and off to hyper......whatever you want ant call it.   My analysis of your post anyway.

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We will see about how accurate that call is.  I have doubts they can continue it that long especially if China Russia actually announce oil for Yuan convertible into gold or not trade agreed with OPEC.    

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AM

Unless things turn around soon, I’m thinking the late 2017/early 2018 is a pivot low.  Price inverts.  I have a nagging thought that this back and forth will last until 2030-ish.  I am interested to know if you have a cycle analysis that coincides with 2030-ish?

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AM

Unless things turn around soon, I’m thinking the late 2017/early 2018 is a pivot low.  Price inverts.  I have a nagging thought that this back and forth will last until 2030-ish.  I am interested to know if you have a cycle analysis that coincides with 2030-ish?

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Looking at the volume for

Looking at the volume for GDX/GDXJ the low might be in. Then I have to figure out the mid term top. As AM wrote there is a storm coming ... It might be wise to get out before then.

Oh, two buying opportunities, that was a surprise, nice. A summer low is always welcome, followed by another short lived rally and then the big Setup.

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Thanks for replying, argentus

Thanks for replying, argentus maximus.  I posted here because the other thread was stale once I saw your comment.  

Totally agree with you regarding the cui bono principle.  That and follow the money are my initial filters, always.  Does this make me a cynic? or a realist?

I chuckled at the memory of bitcoin starting with geek forums.  The first person I encountered in real life who was mining bitcoin was a 14 year old. This was about 5 years ago.  He was my go-to person for tech related questions, albeit he was stupefied at my refusal to have wi-fi in my home.  

I don’t buy into the notion that buying bitcoin somehow harms CBs.  On the contrary, I feel it would’ve already been shut down if CB’s and govt’s were opposed to its use.

I was unaware of the company you mentioned but find Nadir to be an interesting name.  Our overlords telegraphing a message?

Edit: Definitions from Merriam-Webster and Oxford:

the point of the celestial sphere that is directly opposite the zenith and vertically downward from the observer

The point on the celestial sphere directly below an observer.
The opposite of zenith

Initially, I viewed bitcoin similar to using napster, or tor or silk road in that using such services would be sure to have your computer flagged or put you on a list.   Then, I saw it as a test run familiarizing the population with digital (and completely trackable) currency.  Now it seems like a pump and dump operation to me although I’m thrilled that people are making real money and hope they keep it.

My interest now lies mostly in watching how Generation Z is responding to bitcoin.  Having grown up in an environment in which the stock market always goes up, they tend to have a belief that this investing stuff is easy.  All you gotta do is buy some FAANG stocks and watch your wealth increase — easy-peasy.  Now, bitcoin has their attention.  Perhaps I’m too cynical, but it seems to me there may be an opportunity here for worthwhile life lessons, such as following herds and controlling emotions, at a time when losses would be minimized.

You are an accomplished trader and I know you stated you cannot estimate the risk.  But, do you think there might be an opportunity still to ride this trend and be able to take principal off the table and then let the winnings run?  What would be the signs to look for if this rally has topped?  If I’m wrong, and this isn’t a bubble, then I suppose they still win and have an increased car fund, travel fund, etc. to boot.  I must confess, John McAfee’s bullishness on bitcoin has gotten my attention.

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Same shit

from the elliott wave crew it looks like.  Small rally smack to interim lows another new newer low end of year.  Wash fuckin rinse repeat.  We go nowhere for another 10 years I guess.  I want to know when the suppression ends and the gig is up period.  This wave shit where we the forecast is the same all the time sucks.  Essentially 1100 on the low side and say 1400 on the upside.  Fuck that!!!  If we go through 2018 in that 1100 to 1400 range again it will totally suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   That would make it almost a clean 10 years.  

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I found it in SPX don't know about gold

@UncleFester:

UncleFester wrote:
Unless things turn around soon, I’m thinking the late 2017/early 2018 is a pivot low.  Price inverts.  I have a nagging thought that this back and forth will last until 2030-ish.  I am interested to know if you have a cycle analysis that coincides with 2030-ish?

I got something, not in gold but the S&P.

2030 could miss it.

What I found suggests that late 2029 is a better bet, basis the stock market. Big signal then. BIG. I think, from now, that 2028 will do the damage and 2029 will see the break. That is non directional. I am working with monthly and quarterly data to do it. Not less than a 40% swing, probably a 60%-er. 

I am curious as to why did you ask about 2030 in particular?

Drop me a PM or email if you prefer that to posting.

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Timing for stackers/investors

from Alasdair Macleod, posted September 21, 2017:

The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle.

Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which is expected to continue. The likely trigger for the crisis will be from the Eurozone, where the shift in monetary policy and the collapse in bond prices will be greatest. Importantly, we can put a tentative date on the crisis phase in the middle to second half of 2018, or early 2019 at the latest.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-forthcoming-global-crisis

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A little more numerology:

Following up on my post #10613 of December 8, 2017  I drew Marty Leeds to your attention. I knew he would get to this and waited a while before posting his YT channel here. So how about that. His very next video is on the topic I was awaiting!

Before getting started I think it might be a good idea to jump straight to 21:06 and after that to 30:20 and watch and listen for about 30 seconds to get a couple of key points in their briefest form. There is a lot more naturally.

Possibly if short of time skip the first 12-14 minutes:

So ... the heaven is a circle and the Earth is a squsre?

What was the illustration on the Wikipedia for the Philosophers' Stone again? The page I referred to all those posts ago while talking about the philosophical alchemy of money. Here it is in Michael Meier's Atalanta Fugiens which was written in the year 1617 and published the following year:

That's one of those funny middle ages emblems ....  by the way, something you might have not noticed in your hurry to read this - you'll find that a few clues on the ground near the alchemist's feet tie in with what Marty is saying about the number 6, six sided shapes and angles.

But what would it look like if it was reduced to it's bare bones? Something like this :

Actually this is hilarious. If you browse Wikipedia:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosopher%27s_stone and open up this diagram you will notice if you look that the jpg image is 261 x 261 pixels in size.  Someone is trying to help us.

How about this reference on that Wikipedia page:

At 36 minutes in Marty talks about 18 x 37 = 666. Does 37 sound like close to 1/8th the traditional unit price measurement of bonds (usury)? It could also be a euphemism to refer to (1/phi)^2 which is 38.2

Now go back to that quote, reproduced above, by Thomas Browne in his middle ages best selling book. What part and what page number did it appear on? 1    38   He was telling his readers!  The occult is all around us, and so are the clues to understand it.

So there we find 1.618, 0.618 and 0.382 and the bond market quantum 1/8 (0.375) all present, documented, connected, in the years when people with knowledge were being tortured or burned at the stake by the church (the dominant globalist government of that time, it could bring down sovereign ruling kings by war when required) .

Here is just one part of the market tendencies used in the Elliott Wave method:

Back in the past, when these were written, the church was up and civil law was down. Nowadays the state is up and religion is down in the west, with that cycle being reverse in the middle east.

There is plenty to think about in these posts, though I totally accept they are not everybodys' cup of tea. I also am aware that some people really like teasing out old knowledge, finding it is not obsolete or surpassed by progress, and applying it to that most modern thing, the financialized world.

If you want to recognize the Golden Ratio through the markets read The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, or another explanatory text. There are many online.

If you want to see many other numbers that are contained in these diagrams, emblems and ancient texts manifested in time duration weaving in and through the markets read Steve Copan's The Market Matrix.

Or just continue reading the Setup For The Big Trade !

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AM

I am curious as to why did you ask about 2030 in particular?

The way I think about it...gold was currency, then paper was currency with gold backing (real gold standard), then paper currency with gold exchange standard (bullion bank management, London gold pool, COMEX, etc).  Now digital currencies and gold exchanges.  If one looks at a historical chart, one can see the transitions.  Last peak to trough was 1980 and 1999, add 19 to 2011 peak to get 2030.  And an internet search brings up this...

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

Will  2030 be the start of the next transition?   

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