The setup for the big trade

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Byzantium
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@ Nick Elway

Hi Nick,

indeed, but the distinction is the volume of the above ground, largely dormant offline silver on the one hand, and the official physical market for silver on the other, that is actively mined and sold.

I guess question one, is the practical relevance of that distinction for price, and two, how high the price has to rise to tease out the dormant stock, and how quickly it can be made available.

The greater that availability, the more concerning for the silver bull.

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For gold:It's time to wake

For gold:

It's time to wake up again after a quiet year and start paying close attention. We are into the end zone where longer term price support gets tested and calibrated. Next week or two in particular matter a lot to my weighing of strength and weakness, or estimation of bear power remaining if you prefer it said in that way instead. Time for them to show what they still can do. I watch, and maybe act.

Recent years have trained goldbugs to buy at the back end. Too much repetition can be too obvious. Obvious trades tend to fail more frequently. Care is needed. Stops = care.

For silver:

I have conflicting (long term) lines of research in this metal. Usually I expect silver to bottom before or around the same time gold, especially since it topped before gold. But long term resonances suggest a year or two after? I have not yet reconciled this and am watching for clues. Could it be two lows with a rally between? GSR might help to gain insight.

I posted a cyclical silver projection, several months ago, which is still working well. Maybe I'll update that over the weekend.

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argentus maximus
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argentus maximus
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BelangP with a statistically derived 10-15 year period view

BelangP with a statistically derived 10-15 year period view for gold vs stocks & bonds:

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argentus maximus
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argentus maximus
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Gateway to the coming 20 years

My posts about the G-V for the weeks to come always receive a little extra interest. And you who are interested know why.

So ... take the extreme G-V during Q3 2017, and what I said about this being a period of conflict in all the globes' different factions, whereby various projects would done to crisis-decision-resolution points at following G-V peaks.

You got to see this coming to reality already, whereby events in KSA mirrored events a certain period before in NYC.

Here are some posts which pertain to this, and possibly give an idea of what we are at now -  a gateway of a kind to the coming 17-20 years. But you also know that G-V are decision points, where a particular fork in the road is chosen and another discarded. Times of future setting importance in other words.

So why am I saying something directly on this? I usually drop some breadcrumbs and then skirt away from letting people figure it out for themselves. The answer is obviously that is I am this direct, then I must be skirting around something larger that is almost there to see if you look. Start looking. Watch what happens at G-Vs to some. See how they relate to the previous G-V, and past echoes.

G-Vs come in "families" where the events relate to each other. They are also scalar. Look it up if required or subscribe. Now the small scale key event echoes, predicts ... records ... decides ... past events of larger scale. and future events of larger scale. Think how a eg pulling a trigger, lighting a fuse, precipitates something bigger and of greater energy.

And with that in mind here are some links to posts in DOTS forum this week:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/644207#comment-644207

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/644211#comment-644211

There I go again juxtaposing the big clock above with the timing of events below. Correlation is not causation. But other things can connect. It's not all in the open for this. Why should it be?

Take this advisory post in connection with other repeated posts about the long year cycle, (Celtic bronze age reference)  as explained here, and of it's half period subcycle.

So ... after September, October winding of the human-powerplay-event-spring-mechanism, G-V's, inflections, etc all act as triggers to release that excess energy that is invisibly stored in what might be called an invisible reservoir.

Pay attention for the coming 12 months. This is no piddling little daily forecast of market turbulence that goes away after a few weeks. I'm talking formative unknown events being discounted into price as they trickle into known knowledge.

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argentus maximus
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It's possible that digi-fx

It's possible that digi-fx amateurs who don't use stops might find cause to remember the middle one.

That could feed into silver. I am considering the possibility. Remembering the idiosyncrasy about silver and gold having times when they separate in turns.

Open interest usually is a help, along with VAP on weekly scale, and how price interacts with the pivot levels at pivot times.

But I don't want to focus too much on any single sector, at a time when so many other sectors are priced insanely.

My stops raised again for stocks. It costs because I sacrifice upside to guard against possible faster downside. I pay that cost gladly. Partial hedges in place short term. It would not take much to trigger my long term positions out. That means key levels are nearby. I have said which charts to look at to see them.

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Super Full Moon Sellout My

Super Full Moon Sellout smiley

My Spider senses was trigged last week, some miners went down others went up ... then I noticed the SuperFullMoon phenomena. GV the 10th and inflectionpoint in Silver the 11th. OI peak volume of Dec is gone, I am no expert but I think the scenario from last year is not going to play out this year? I am buying right now (too early as usual?) ... nice to be back in the market!

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Update

After failing to take out the old double-top resistance, price is inside the converging medium-term support lines.  Bulls are seeing base building, while Bears are licking their chops for a gap down after support is broken.  Mind those stops.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/H5JlbhSt/

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argentus maximus
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This is thought provoking:

This is thought provoking:

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Diversity a weakness...oh no

Diversity a weakness...oh no what is he saying. Just look at mother nature, diversity is key.

... but not here, I wonder why?

The explanation must be that Starling birds are racist, yes that's why. Where are the seagulls, the pigeons, the owls we need more diversity among birds, they would all fly so much better in synchronization. I wouldn't be surprised if the Starling leader has a swastika tattoo on his butt cheek.

...

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G-V and Calendar periods of note, plus another date

Broad brush summary for December:

End of this week. eg 8th to 11th Dec, end of an already proceeding tap-tap-tap G-V multiple toppy surging formation in a peak.

Winter solstice. Always worth watching.

3 days after solstice = Xmas

New year. Janus sends his regards, both of them. Inflections in prices of various asset classes fall then .... conventional FX and digi-FX may begin to get shaky in a build up towards an event due later on. Possible resolution at a price to become important later.

First week of Jan. Big G-V date that week.

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argentus maximus
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I promised a long term

I promised a long term harmonic update chart last week. I assumed I would bring one of silver in weekly for this purpose.

But everybody should know by now that I am looking a currency or bond ruction from here on for s few months, and this should ideally set up the final swing down in gold to set up the big trade, if it is in gold and not a short bonds trade that is.

So I was thinking that silver is working as a leveraged hedge for gold at teh moment, but that will break due to lead - lag tendency at extreme prices. Then I'm thinking about the carry trade going into reverse, via a pulsation which blows vix away. Or the bond yield curve flipping, reversing, and staying flat. So what is the single ting that can encapsulate all of these?

Gold is in a trading range inside a bigger range for more than a year, exactly as I forecasted last year. But that was then and now I need to look forwards to gain some insight into the character and sentiment of the months to come.

I came up with this currency chart - a dollar cross:

It looks a little like the gold market, yes?

So you know what this projection does by now. See that giant time cycle swooping in for a turn several bars after the harmonic time of interest. The robust line in red shows a projected low, and the more sensitive blue shown a high and a low or either.

...  of large size.

... due during the coming months. (give or take)

I think the trading range will be tested soon. Gold should follow or correlate. Silver will follow and exaggerate. Bond will reflect. Digi-FX will be at the centre of the whirlwind in some way.

And if we look back to gold, the neophyte cycle analysts are calling for another beautiful repetition of the recent years. I am on record here as being much more cagey about that premise, this time.

Don't rely on the range. It's life is now mature.

I think that a storm approaches.

PS. The chart shown above is $CHF weekly. A harder than average currency. It might have some amount of the characteristics of gold remaining, or it may not.

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argentus maximus
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Let's get numerological !

I think I may have posted this YT channel on DOTS... but possibly not yet in Setup.

If you are interested in the way I easily tie together Early scripture, Freemasonry texts, alchemic texts, numerology, early Judaic time measurement, kabbala, Celtic calendar, symbology and emblems, and other apparently unrelated subjects with financial markets, you might get something worthwhile from several of this guy's videos.

Here is one to begin with (it gets hot about 55 minutes in, but to miss the build up would take a lot from all the breadth he brings to the table):

He says much that I don't have time to document, and he's getting it right and explaining it clearly. A fine chance to learn how to understand and translate for yourself the occulted (hidden, concealed) coded knowledge which is "really" all around us. If you can get value from this, pay attention to him while he's there.

Note the transhumanist meme promulgation woven in with, what exactly .... this one unpicks the connection of ideas using visual imagery. Mass communication without the use of words.

This goes to understanding modern society, and and also to understanding subtle and effective methodology how you can be jerked off track while innocently trying to trade for a living.

It also has precise connections with my above post #10612 which is all about a forex chart.

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Pete
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My guess

(and that's all it is) about the coming year for gold is here.  The pathway towards the culmination zone near the red dot will be choppy as 2017 has been, consisting of declining prices interrupted by one to two month corrections.  The low of 2016 will be broken, but not the low of 2015.  The end of this large w.2 will come between October 2018 and February 2019, to be followed by a new bull wave that will last at least 12 years and take gold well beyond $3000/oz. 

The modified Schiff structure for this w.2 is like the w.2 after the 2011 top (with increasing time of waves a, b and c).   

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I've sold all my Gold&Silver

I've sold all my Gold&Silver holdings and moved my capital into Bitcoin. This is a paradigm shift on massive scale

Enjoy smiley

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Interesting material, thanks

Interesting material, thanks for posting!

It's the first time I see someone doing gematria with a system centered on the number seven. Is he the guy that came up with this or this more common?

 

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If you throw a ball into a

If you throw a ball into a triangle the ball looses energy for each bounce, that's just plain physics yet misunderstood by many chartists. Chart-entities reacts the same way. Look at the Gold chart, it looks very much like a bouncing ball:

From another forum:

Solsson

In preparation for my update, look at this chart, it’s a good one. Found it at Goldtent.

Do you see the pattern, it’s quite obvious and it predicts the future for Gold imo:

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Gold-09DEC17.png

It’s a bouncing ball, what happens after each bounce?

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about that bitcoin...

Hi argentus maximus,

I hope you've been doing well.  I am intrigued by 2 questions you raised previously on main street.  In one of your comments, you asked:

1 Is the rush to early brand name digi-FX the same as the rush into PMs late in the uptrend?

2 Who started the uptrend (of both PMs then and digi-FX now) and how (by what mechanism) were both asset classes drawn to the attention of prospective buyers, and is there a similar "signature" to these two public relations projects?

I am of the opinion that "yes" is an appropriate answer to both questions. But the "who" and "how" remain undiscussed.

I'm wondering if you'd be willing to further discuss the "who" and the "how?"

Thanks.

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An observation re ES

Monthly LT chart here.  When price reached the big  ML and UH, price drifted higher then corrected significantly.  Will this pattern repeat?  At WL#1, price is/would be severely overbought.

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Temptations

I am tempted to play this as wave four between the 1230 and 1250 magnets.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/AoVfGgHu/

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argentus maximus
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I am not familiar with the

I am not familiar with the source of that gematria, because I haven't gone back to it's particular origins. What I can attest to is that I use a totally different system, self derived and not in the literature, which produces the same results.

In some cases the occult numbers are not accurate but approximations which were accurate for the time, but we can do better.

eg In Babylon Pi was estimated as 25/8  =  3.125

The bible has several references.

Later it was estimated as closer to 22/7 = 3.1428571

And now it's approximately 3.14159265358979

We don't require absolute exactness, what we require is a logical way to know which (occult) principle, from all the ones available, will apply in a given circumstance.

For that I can cross reference other market techniques. The good ones have been tested over time upon prices. And a price chart is a very clear thing when looked at from a date later on.

Here is one observation: if prices move in eights, and for many years bonds were priced in eighths, the there is a market price of 3 and an eighth which is 3.125. Thus if price moves in eighths, and from time to time it breaks out or reverses at that price, I would not be averse to saying that the irrational number Pi appears in the price changes of financial assets. 

So if it works I'm ok with it. But that would be after I have made some tests to see if it fits reality.

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argentus maximus
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