Ok, I've got a little bit ahead of myself. AM showing his uniq skills here and in RNP, stated long time ago. "Big and complex systems crash in slow motion" That brings me to interest rates, do you thread readers and writers think that US is going to NIRP before we see the end of this gold&silver bearmarket. The UK is thinking it's a good idea and my country already moved into NIRP along with Denmark and Switzerland.
many gurus think this is the possible turn around for precious metals, but I think it's too soon looking at various parameters like rates, bond yield, debt, qe and so forth. I am no economist with no education in that area, it sometimes is hard to follow all the information and how it fits together and what the possible outcome would be. Maybe I am sharing that emotion with centralbankers
Mark Douglas R.I.P.
If you read and learned something about trading from Mark Douglas, author of The Disciplined trader and Trading in The Zone you may be disappointed to hear that he passed away.
Apparently he completed other works before his passing, and they will still get produced and made available according to the notice on his website.
Not quite answering your question Solsson, but adding a related one and posing one possible answer to the whole:
What happens to a reserve currency's status as the reserve currency if it begins charging interest instead of paying it, during a period in which other major currencies have a positive rate of return? What happens in the minds of holders of bonds of the reserve currency during such a period?
Either financial fences must be erected, impenetrable currency controls, etc, if negative reserve currency interest rates are to be made a feasible option. They will see a need for all competitor currencies to go to a negative or zero interest rate policy too, to remove attractive avenues of capital flight.
But if they chicken out from discovering what will happen with a reserve currency NIRP, they can follow the alternative route to run covert inflation from my estimated 5%-8% up to a higher 10%-16% to create increased negative real (inflation adjusted) interest rates. It seems to me that this is more likely.
And since government is soaking up so much growth via taxation, that as a result stagflation will be with us for another decade. Therefore, since they want their game to go on as long as possible, and in an uninterrupted way, we can expect financial battles to be waged against private sector stagflation hedging by international indebted government (Central Bank) alliances.
I see the Swiss Franc's recent destruction of a hedge fund (which was overleveraged with carry trade exposure) as an early warning shot by Central Banks. I'm pretty sure that private meeting with CB heads and hedgies since then have communicated "guidelines" from above to below about what is and isn't considered acceptable in the financial autocrats view of "their world".
I was shocked to read your post. I attended his seminar in Chicago back in the day; and the guy was not that old.
Gold is caught in a symmetrical triangle:
exiting, I just bought back my nugget. Sold it on Friday with a quick profit of 30%. Now I will keep it a little bit longer. The position is much smaller and less stressful to handle.
Symmetrical Triangle in 15min chart, ready for a breakout
Oh how rude of me thank you for your reply AM, I am very self centered and single minded when trading.
Trading in the Zone is a great book, to be read and practiced by every trader, imo. R.I.P. Mark. Thank you!
Martin Armstrong just released his September Gold and Silver Update Report. He continues to maintain that Gold will bottom on one his upcoming Benchmark Cycles. The next benchmark is the week of December 7, 2015 and the one thereafter is the week of March 28, 2016. See the two red vertical lines on the chart linked to the url below. It’s a fascinating report. He draws attention to the Gold/Silver ratio as one to follow into these two Benchmarks. The Benchmark is the convergence of the gold’s 16 week cycle and Silver’s 18 week cycle. In his report he delves into the history of the benchmark cycle together with the Gold/Silver ratio and how together they marked the major highs and lows for gold and silver. What he posits this time around is that a spike high in this ratio on a benchmark date will project the low for gold and that this ratio could exceed 100 should gold test the 1980 high of 875. Ouch!!
He doesn’t project a final low for gold or silver other than to say that gold will fall below 1,000. The high for this ratio in 1991 was 101.80. Note the inverse H&S pattern on this chart and its projection. Going forward I will send an update of this chart each week. He also revised his weekly and monthly reversal levels for gold and silver. I will make those changes and the weekly and monthly MA charts will reflect those changes. He also provided new weekly and monthly arrays for gold and silver. From those arrays my sense is the second March 28th benchmark will bring the final low for gold. I highly recommend you purchase this report
The above is from the following site.
A bounce of MA10, bought a little bit early (again)?
Usually when I post a large inflection that is a date upon which banks tend to implode.
The star chart for today isn't a bank, it's an auto manufacturer. But they own a bank so it's close enough to qualify.
Take a look at Volkswagen AG (weekly chart) :
That's a big hit to a big corporation.
Prospective CEOs are surely polishing their resumes and contacting their "connections" as we read this. Of corporate resignations and boardroom politics also peaks on the same inflections.
Options expiry 48 hours away. (24th September)
And at the moment precious metals weakness seems to be arriving on schedule:
GC down 1%
Si down 2.8%
Remember it's about the options mainly, the futures open interest is quite low. Options expire before the end of month, futures expire closer to the last day of the month.
A cautionary note: we need to accommodate far eastern contract rollover increasingly as time goes by.
@ Flyinkel, Thank you very much for your comment the other day. I had gone on another idea-to-analysis rampage and thought there would be a natural pause to come back to the surface with results and a reply to you. But the iterations are only getting deeper and there will be no concrete result for a while, if any. So thank you for your kind comment. I know what you mean. However, I also think it is extremely important to sometimes listen the boyz - while sorting the information critically - as an internal balancing of "increasingly dogmatic assumptions" act - and in this case it has proven very important to me. I haven't even reached the point of reading Dalio's texts thoroughly yet, because I picked up on other stuff in the video that piqued my curiosity and had enough meat to have me still munching ;-)
@Silver66, So thank you once again for posting the links. While FOFOA spurred plain reading rampages in the past to acquire knowledge of a different - giant - perspective, Argentus has so far been the only one, who could really spur complete submersion in derived idea-to-analysis rampages, because he utilizes such a wide array of techniques that brings one into very different and huge areas of reading, when one tries to follow along. Dalio did the same to me, albeit in a more narrowly focused way. I think you are right that he is an inside outlier.
I think this week will be very interesting to watch.
Argentus - thank you for being such a deep well of inspiration in the pursuit of discovery - and I am not only talking about charts here ;-)
Edit: Argentus - fwiw - my VERY preliminary findings from my unfinished iterations has the 24th September as a very significant day. Not Polny's 23rd - and autumn equinox, not 28th bloodmoon - but the 24th as a weekday sister to the accelleration point in 1929. I have no idea if my method sticks yet, but that is what it said.
O'boy brutally fleeced today bcos lack of discipline and patience. Yes I knew the gap was there but I thought it was about to be filled later on, not now.
Despite option calls I think we are turning around here. I may eat my words later this evening ... now it's a wise decision to average down *lol*
In US their pollution controls only worked when the car was being tested. All other times they had 20-50X the legal limit, and they just got caught. It would make sense their stock tumbles. Of course AM would take it a step farther and say "But why now? Is the release of info managed for optimal timing?"
AM - Jesse's Thoughts relating to your thoughts.
We are going to have an option expiration on the Comex on this Thursday the 24th. I am not expecting it to be a big event, since October is a light contract, with the real attention and action being concentrated in December.
However, there are over one thousand puts at the 1125 strike, so the cynical me might call that good support.
If I were trying to skin the specs and holders of options with shallower pockets, I would take gold down to about 1120ish, suck in more puts and scare the calls out, and then take the price up and skin all those put holders at expiry.
But this is a one dimensional view of the market, and does not take into account the trade in London and in the vastly out of control derivatives markets. Or the side action in the miners and ETFs for that matter.
but in the world of coincidences...is it just a coincidence that the leader of the catholic church is visiting our northeastern coast even as the leader of the china is visiting our northwestern coast? seems kind of odd...but maybe that's just me...
Reality can be symmetrical with an asymmetrical variation hidden in the details.
I'm not making this up. Think of nonlinear fractals like the Mandelbrot pattern:
Those are beautiful images .....
I am not giving up on the symmetrical triangle just yet. Gold to be resolved soon:
A compression channel, hopefully an impulsive move to the upside, starting today/tomorrow.
Miners to follow gold for a while. HUI at 160-180 and gold 1250-1300.
Most is very bearish, lets see how the end of the week unfolds.
Since when has the triangle been a major bottom formation? Rare, methinks. 1250-1300 next? Probably.