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Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sun, Aug 16, 2015 - 7:50pm
pailin
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No worries. I can do that too

No worries. I can do that too :)

Gottlieb NEPTUNE Wedgehead Pinball Machine
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Aug 16, 2015 - 10:51pm
JAL
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Ok a couple more then!

Not sure how much use either of these are to anyone...

...some I hope!

Lana Del Rey - High By The Beach
Morcheeba - "Enjoy The Ride" featuring Judie Tzuke (includes lyrics)
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 3:12am
JAL
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Long $Gold @1120.49 (inc spread)

EGold's breaking out...

Looks like we might be headed north.

(But WTFDIK?wink)

Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 3:15am
JAL
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EUR/USD WTF?!!!

No way it get's up from that.

(Sorry, duped...)

Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 9:14am
pailin
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will Fed raise rates?

According to MA they will (and must). This is a call that's contrary to what most other non-MSM commentators are saying. I think he's got it right and wonder what that will do to housing? We'd naturally assume that rates up will quell demand (which is already in trouble) and prices will stagnate or retreat in response, except the deadcat in RE has been mostly new multi-families and non-mortgage purchases, not dependent upon the perma-popular fixed 30 year note (which is very rate sensitive). So I'm left to wonder what happens?

Does China’s Devaluation Reduce the Odds of the Fed Raising Rates?

Posted on August 17, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

Does China’s devaluation reduce the odds of the Fed raising rates? Some people assume that is the case. However, the Fed is in a box and unless they raise rates, the next crisis in pensions will wipe out far more than most people anticipate. True, everyone from the IMF to most other countries are begging the Fed not to raise rates for there are some $9 trillion dollar shorts out there. It is also true that cash is rushing into the short-term government paper (flight to quality) and raising rates will escalate the federal budget which also comes due right on the ECM turning point as the debt ceiling expires October 1st.

This entire problem is illustrate what we have been warning about that this is not merely a dollar and Sovereign Debt Crisis, this is also a RESERVE CURRENCY crisis. The Fed is being pressured by the IMF and other nations not to raise rates because of external economic conditions. The Fed is caught in a real crisis currently where domestic policy objectives are being influenced by international policy of other nations – the INTER-CONNECTIVITY. This is starting to peal back the layers of the global economy which is like an onion where everything is connected. This is further illustrating that domestic politics is really hopeless for they can promise the moon but deliver absolutely nothing.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 1:27pm
JAL
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Long $Silver @1535.5 (inc spread) DAYTRADE!!!

No reason...wink

Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 3:20pm
Big Buffalo
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Oil

Oil getting spanked

Ba-zinga!
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 4:36pm (Reply to #40213)
pailin
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Big Buffalo wrote:Oil

Big Buffalo wrote:

Oil getting spanked

Even retail has to see that equities will get clipped into year end? Right?? The charts are so...2008.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 4:59pm
Big Buffalo
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I would certainly like to see

I would certainly like to see the djia back to 17700-17800, then pile back into a short etf. This has to break, right?

Having coffee with a friend tomorrow, discussing when we will split a monster box of maples or eagles. Can't help but think those boxes were running $22,000 not long ago.

Ba-zinga!
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 6:39pm
tonym9
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things that make you go

things that make you go hmmm...

If commodities have to retest 08/09 lows as I believe, oil aint done breaking the chart. I'm prolly gonna regret not selling my houston home this summer. My neighbor rang the bell for 110k in appreciation on his home in 2.5 years, closing a few weeks ago. We started talking about selling our homes when oil cracked 70 way back when. He sold, I'm still here due to inventory of heavy car stuff. A quick look at the oil chart shows 08/09 lows around 32 WTI. I see nothing on the chart to stop a fall to there, other than round number milestones...40, 35, 30...nothing but hope there. The Fall is refinery reset season gearing up for the Winter blends...I'm hopeful that this will mark the low, but not confident, my guess is mid to hi 30s. The chart looks very sick. So far Houston real estate has been very resilient but one has to wonder if a repeat of the 80s crash is on the horizon. Many are being laid off in the oil industry, I'm hearing stories everyday now....not the big guys, but the little suppliers and manufacturing companies. It's getting ugly, but prolly only the begining I fear. Dang it!

I love watching the UCO action. I don't dare take a bite out of it yet. But at 21, wow. Once the bottom does come, serious opp there. I'm preparing to offset any home equity losses with a run of UCO when the time comes. Oil will bounce, it always does, the question is how low and how long...look to the charts for historical info. My hesitation is diversity. If I'm in UCO and Houston R/E, ummm, not diversified. Ugh...

Silver has had a nice little rally, as expected. The next step down will touch 13s IMO. The pattern is still working, down some, up a little, down more....expecting tweens in the not too distant future. 

Gold I don't follow as close as oil or silver, but ti looks to be in the same boat as all of the major commods...in downtrend with sick charts.

BEWARE of pompons being waived by sellers of pm's. They have skin in the game and only make money when they move inventory. Those that don't sell pm's but constantly scream buy buy buy will cause you to to say bye to your money, for different reasons that result in the same underwater position. Once past having 'some' on hand, there is not a need to rush in here. Better to miss a little to watch for a good bottom than to try to catch a falling knife on a short lived bounce. THE CHART SAYS SILVER IS NOT DONE FALLING. BE VERY CAREFUL. 

For a good long while now I've been lowering my buy silver points....26 to 22, 22 to 18, 18 to 15, 15 to 12...all without acting. To date I haven't had one of those I missed the train moments. Personally I don't hear a whistle...hell I don't even hear a train coming, much less trying to get going. 

Sometimes not acting is harder than doing nothing...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 9:20pm (Reply to #40216)
Big Buffalo
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Well written Tony. Thanks for

Well written Tony. Thanks for the Texas /oil story. Will take all in serious consideration. I bought a few ozs of silver at $20, nothing big at all. Just had a couple buck and thought I would spend it. I'm waiting and it is hard.

Ba-zinga!
Mon, Aug 17, 2015 - 10:57pm (Reply to #40211)
HappyNow
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Re: Will the Fed raise rates?

pailin wrote:

According to MA they will (and must). This is a call that's contrary to what most other non-MSM commentators are saying. ..............

This entire problem is illustrate what we have been warning about that this is not merely a dollar and Sovereign Debt Crisis, this is also a RESERVE CURRENCY crisis. The Fed is being pressured by the IMF and other nations not to raise rates because of external economic conditions. The Fed is caught in a real crisis currently where domestic policy objectives are being influenced by international policy of other nations – the INTER-CONNECTIVITY. This is starting to peal back the layers of the global economy which is like an onion where everything is connected. This is further illustrating that domestic politics is really hopeless for they can promise the moon but deliver absolutely nothing.

Yes the Fed has a problem and I hadn't thought this through so thanks for posting. Most of the developed nations could use a rate lift, but the only country that can 'afford to' is the USA. Yet that will work further against the interest of anyone-but-USA. Having thoroughly trounced every other currency out there it would be a gutsy move to raise rates but so far the US has seemed to be on the track of every man for himself and why stop now? Proclaim victory, raise the rate and play We Are The Champions.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 3:01am
JAL
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Stopped out of $Silver @15.205

These f-ckers know its game over for them if they don't beat this down...

This could bounce... hard!

GLTA!!!

(Be very careful.)

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 3:24am (Reply to #40219)
Spartacus Rex
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@ Lemming

JustAnotherLemming wrote:

These f-ckers know its game over for them if they don't beat this down...

This could bounce... hard!

GLTA!!!

(Be very careful.)

Still trying to learn those 'Tide Tables' are you?

 laugh

Keep trying. We're all counting on you! wink

Cheers,

S. Rex

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 3:39am (Reply to #40218)
pailin
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HappyNow wrote: pailin

HappyNow wrote:
pailin wrote:

According to MA they will (and must). This is a call that's contrary to what most other non-MSM commentators are saying. ..............

This entire problem is illustrate what we have been warning about that this is not merely a dollar and Sovereign Debt Crisis, this is also a RESERVE CURRENCY crisis. The Fed is being pressured by the IMF and other nations not to raise rates because of external economic conditions. The Fed is caught in a real crisis currently where domestic policy objectives are being influenced by international policy of other nations – the INTER-CONNECTIVITY. This is starting to peal back the layers of the global economy which is like an onion where everything is connected. This is further illustrating that domestic politics is really hopeless for they can promise the moon but deliver absolutely nothing.

Yes the Fed has a problem and I hadn't thought this through so thanks for posting. Most of the developed nations could use a rate lift, but the only country that can 'afford to' is the USA. Yet that will work further against the interest of anyone-but-USA. Having thoroughly trounced every other currency out there it would be a gutsy move to raise rates but so far the US has seemed to be on the track of every man for himself and why stop now? Proclaim victory, raise the rate and play We Are The Champions.

re: Raising rates. We're talking the short duration, where demand is already high and only growing...imagine what 1/4 or 1/2 point raise will do to demand? 'Free' money in an already deflationary environment. And burn the shorts (all debtors denominated in dollars, domestic and foreign). FYI - that's you and I if any of us is carrying 'bad' (non-productive) debt! Anything rate sensitive will only cause more pain. So (assuming no legal relief)...gonna smoke the graduates carrying huge college notes around. But also give some faith 'in the system' back to the old folks. That's probably the biggest war to come right there - young with unpayable low-carry debt vs. old with dead cash (or at least 'promises') at ZIRP.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 3:55am (Reply to #40220)
JAL
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I've been up since sunday...

The pattern's pretty simple... breakout, raid!

Asia was able to absorb the selling... just.

There's several fights going on... EGold, $Gold, ESilver, $Silver and EURUSD (but that's not a fight).

There are breakouts on multiple charts! (i.e. in different currencies.)

Which makes the charts go weird...

Silver's been behaving oddly for days, ditto euros, DXY. Egold and ESilver are taking turns with $Gold and $Silver, EURUSD is being swung like a weapon and silver's getting butchered to prevent Gold/Silver slingshotting each other through resistance.

Silver's effectively in a parking space, or was... Gold's leading though, which one depended, but when that dragged silver away from the euro, they flipped...

It's been totally f-cking bonkers. (Why do you think I'm even awake?)

How to tell it's a raid, look at the volume/price innit, not that you need to, there's no news...

And they're not f-cking about!

(Scariest $Silver position I've ever had.)

No more $Silver trades for me unless I see a 14-handle, then maybe.

(Obvs quite tired.)

Trade much on leverage do you?

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 3:57am (Reply to #40222)
Spartacus Rex
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@ Lemming

JustAnotherLemming wrote:

The pattern's pretty simple... breakout, raid!

(Obvs quite tired.)

If it is so “simple”, then why are you not closing profitably?

.10 point move in SI on the Globex/ CME Comex equals $500 profit x X amount of Contracts

Cheers,

S. Rex

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 5:14am (Reply to #40223)
JAL
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I don't close trades without 100% profit.. (ideally 200-300%)

Not worth the risk, unless I'm not using guaranteed stops and want to avoid margin calls...

Spread's normally 3 pips plus 2 two to insure the stop, got to cross that to make break even minus a little to exit.

But hey, 100+:1 leverage is nice... (I aim for 50 but y'know, don't always succeed...)

It's cheaper to be more levered , until your stops get hit.

Now I just know roughly how much space I need for what I want to do in each market from experience.

(I don't place stops, I buy distance from the price.)

It's also tax free!smiley

Re raids etc.. I'm totally Ok with some people not getting it but not others.

If you watch the 1M candles enough with volume and indicators, you can't miss them!

(But not everyone does that.)

I'm a chart freak and I use fibonacci to understand how markets move, shananigans stick out.

Ever seen the indicators get gamed? It's very clever, move the price a certain way and it won't trigger signals... and robots.

Fights are fun to watch, two sets of participants trying to move the price against each other for the least money possible, you can tell when the pro's are about and when someone doesn't care how much it costs...

Asia was awesome if terrifying, there was money under the market and... Icebergs (I think.)

Watching the candles and the volume exploding when both sides were pushing against each other was impressive.

Then watching TPTB's orders get absorbed and them have to flee... been grinning all day!smiley

(Yeah... I'm easily amused I guess.)

Ultimately though, it's about who's got the most money.

Last night they didn't have enough.

(Different they though i think, there are many methods/tactics, they look different, like chess... super-illegal chess.)

Inverse SHS building in $Silver btw, like right now... and a violent stop hunt!

Watch what happens when the bugs complete the right shoulder, if you're interested.

(DANGER! THEY'RE NOT F-CKING ABOUT!!!)

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 5:21am (Reply to #40224)
Spartacus Rex
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JustAnotherLemming wrote: Not

JustAnotherLemming wrote:

Not worth the risk, unless I'm not using guaranteed stops and want to avoid margin calls...

Spread's normally 3 pips plus 2 two to insure the stop, got to cross that to make break even minus a little to exit.

But hey, 100+:1 leverage is nice... (I aim for 50 but y'know, don't always succeed...)

It's cheaper to be more levered , until your stops get hit.

Now I just know roughly how much space I need for what I want to do in each market from experience.

(I don't place stops, I buy distance from the price.)

It's also tax free!smiley

F*king Blighty Bastards!

Re raids etc.. I'm totally Ok with some people not getting it but not others.

If you watch the 1M candles enough with volume and indicators, you can't miss them!

(But not everyone does that.)

I'm a chart freak and I use fibonacci...

Really? Oh oh!

Ever seen the indicators get gamed?

All the Time for over 4 Decades

It's very clever, move the price a certain way and it won't trigger signals... and robots.

Fights are fun to watch,... 

No Sh*t Sherlock, especially when profiting from same!

Ultimately though, it's about who's got the most money.

WRONG! “It's about” who knows how to maximize the implementation of same!

Last night they didn't have enough.

(Different they though i think, there are many methods/tactics, they look different, like chess... super-illegal chess.)

Inverse SHS building in $Silver btw, like right now... and a violent stop hunt!

Watch what happens the bugs complete the right shoulder, if you're interested.

(DANGER! THEY'RE NOT F-CKING ABOUT!!!)

LOL! I had that figured out by the 70's, and you?

Cheers,

S. Rex

Tue, Aug 18, 2015 - 7:10am
Big Buffalo
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The wontons hit the ceiling

The wontons hit the ceiling fans last night. Time to pile into some short etfs.

Ba-zinga!

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