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The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Aug 11, 2015 - 6:39pm
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26 month gold trading range, Daily chart

Here is a daily chart going back to June 2013 showing the fairly clear descending trading range for gold over the last 26 months.

Nothing fancy of course, but I am pondering the fact that each time we have hit the lower support level, a subsequent run to the top of the trading range was in the offing. What also interests me is that the slope of each "run to the top" seems to be the same- the angle of ascent is similar each time, in other words. A quick, steep run. 

So if this pattern remains true, and the angle of ascent is similar (no guarantee of either, of course), it would put us at the upper bound (1240-1250$) fairly quickly, between September 25 and October 6. Possibly a tradable pattern with nice posible 130-140$ upside. Stops can be set pretty tight, maybe 1095 or 1085 depending on how you see it, for a nice risk/reward. I've stuck my toe in the water. Will likely be stopped out by morning ;-)

Tue, Aug 11, 2015 - 8:57pm
JAL
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Pretty please with cherries on top...

Could one of you kind souls post the monthlies of these two please?

(I'm too cheap these days...sad)

(My interest is of course, purelyacademic.wink)

Iggy Pop-China Girl (1977) HD

Please forgive the intrusion.

(Going now, promise!)

----------------------------

@Pining

iggy pop - Nazi Girlfriend - Avenue B

(Logged in to hat tip your chart!yes)

Tue, Aug 11, 2015 - 10:08pm (Reply to #8012)
Salisbury House
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Pining 4 the Fjords

Pining 4 the Fjords wrote:

Here is a daily chart going back to June 2013 showing the fairly clear descending trading range for gold over the last 26 months.

Nothing fancy of course, but I am pondering the fact that each time we have hit the lower support level, a subsequent run to the top of the trading range was in the offing. What also interests me is that the slope of each "run to the top" seems to be the same- the angle of ascent is similar each time, in other words. A quick, steep run. 

So if this pattern remains true, and the angle of ascent is similar (no guarantee of either, of course), it would put us at the upper bound (1240-1250$) fairly quickly, between September 25 and October 6. Possibly a tradable pattern with nice posible 130-140$ upside. Stops can be set pretty tight, maybe 1095 or 1085 depending on how you see it, for a nice risk/reward. I've stuck my toe in the water. Will likely be stopped out by morning ;-)

Nice chart, I expect to see a rule of 4 (Ro4) breakout at the top of the channel this time. Many times you will find that the fourth time is the charm.

Wed, Aug 12, 2015 - 7:49am
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Here you are:

Here you are:

The highest value for GDX?GDXJ on mine seems to be 5 units lower than your Stockcharts chart above, .85 vx .90.

I'm not sure why. Otherwise it appears the same. On ESignal the monthly has a limited history, possibly the birth date of those indices.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 12, 2015 - 10:33am
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Today's RNP is available for all Setup Readers

Today's RNP is available for all Setup Readers

It explains the volume at price charts which I update here every few weeks for the GLD and SLV ETF funds.

Well worth watching, you should get more from those charts when you understand what part of the underlying market structure it is that they highlight best.

Here's the link:

https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/sdcharts/RNP-241-gyt4-12082015.mp4

Newsletter rules and Setup Rules and Disclaimers apply:

Learn from it, don't trade it - it's conversation for entertainment and study purposes and not trading advice.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 12, 2015 - 11:06am
Solsson
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change

things is running my way at the moment, DAX down -5,5% in two days,,you could almost touch the sentiment change right now ...

Thank you for the knowledge and inspiration AM !

Gary Savage is on fire today !

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

Wed, Aug 12, 2015 - 3:16pm
Stock_Canines
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@ Solsson

Interesting piece by Gary Savage. He writes that if this scenario plays out then gold "would be forming a final bear market low right here at the 50% fibonacci retracement and there will be no lower lows." However, just three days ago he showed a chart where gold would rise to 1200 - 1230 before selling off to new lows towards the end of 2015. Are you reading this that he has radically changed his outlook in just the past few days? He talks about the 7 year cycle and a pending stock market crash to test the 2000 and 2007 highs which would cause the Fed to launch QE4 and a new dollar bear and corresponding gold bull. That is a dramatic shift in mere days. Is this directly tied to and a result of China's devaluation of the Yuan? Also, the past QE's did not seem to help gold at all. I believe AM has stated numerous times that gold needs interest rates to begin to move up. Fed falling back into QE would seem opposed to a new bull in gold based on past experience and the writings of MA and AM. Curious as to your thoughts. Cheers.

Thu, Aug 13, 2015 - 2:58am
Solsson
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I did not give it much

I did not give it much thought, I meant fire that his hair was on fire, a lot of aggressive charts. He has a new piece out on gold, from yesterday. China another devaluation ? Interesting to see how markets react today.

Thu, Aug 13, 2015 - 2:04pm
Solsson
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Got a bad feeling today, is

Got a bad feeling today, is wave b complete and a final wave c on it's way, I've sold all related to pm.

A perfect b imho and a c 5 wave down move would be very very nice ... end August?

*WARNING*

Remember AM's Ferdinand moment in gold, good or bad it was very bad for Ferdinand? GLD consumption around 100 never went below 104ish?

I might be dead wrong on this but better 26% profit than a -50% loss .... that red bar scared the shit out of me !

Thu, Aug 13, 2015 - 2:33pm
Solsson
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I like Gary Savage he seems

I like Gary Savage he seems to be a nice guy and a hard working and experienced trader, however if chart freak trader, bubo swedish trader, Gary Savage et al is David Copperfield, argentus maximus is Merlin wink

********************************************************************************************'

mmm, I had these charts in the back of my mind:

The green mile, sorry line
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/642489#comment-642489

My own from a couple of weeks back
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/642146#comment-642146

Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 2:34am
blue pill dreaming
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Solsson Lease Rate update

The move is starting to look more like Feb'14 or April'15 as the lease rate spike appears to be checked.

Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 2:44am
blue pill dreaming
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GLD Gap Fill

Hi AM

I watched your RnP Tutorial on Volume at Price yesterday.

Thanks for making that available.

Just after I read a comment on a different blog from a trader saying he was waiting for the Gap on GLD to back fill before he reentered long in $GOLD.

This made me consider that back filling a gap seemed very much like back filling VaP.

Do you see any similarity?

Cheers Phil

Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 5:46am (Reply to #8023)
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Yes there is a very close

Yes there is a very close similarity between the two. Sometimes they would both be the same event.

However volume can highlight some things that price alone doesn't. Call it a higher level of technical analysis if you wish. Volume and price together is what the large traders and market makers are focusing on, not just price alone. They often use something called VWAP execution orders which I don't bother with, but if I dealt big I would.

In the video I explained the volume deficiency being filled, the opposite applies too - where a high volume histogram bell curve exists price will attract but be repelled by the histogram peak.

Thus looking at a price chart alone - the price would be observed to approach an important level, like for instance rising towards an old high level, and then upon approaching (and not being repelled downwards this time) that level it gaps upwards into new high ground, breaking the exit stops of shorts who must then get out higher loss taking price level than they anticipated. So in this way, VAP peaks could be considered to predict some price gaps.

VAP might also tell you in a circumstance similar to the above example when that technical analysis gap already has enough volume, and it will not require to be retraced by the market - but basic TA analysts who simply look at a price chart would (without good reason) think it might. They would then await a gap-refill-retracement pullback which never comes, and consequently fail to get aboard a new trend.

I hope you find this helpful, taking your question and running a little with the reply.

There's a whole lot more going on in this thread than just time cycles!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 7:25am
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I have an interesting date of

I have an interesting date of significance coming up for the week beginning with last day of August. It's in the ASX All ORDS Gold Index.

It may be worth seeking for something that week in the better Aussie Mining Stocks.

Here's a weekly chart:

Long term those recent lows are new lows and lie below support, medium term they probably are support, and there's a bit of moving average convergence going on. Looking back at the year 2012, and by inference 2010, suggests we need to never take eyes off the 200 week ma.

There are bigger timelines on this than the one I'm discussing but they are all farther out April and July 2016, but we can discuss those when we arrive there. This is suggesting to concentrate my attention on Aussie gold stocks at end of August.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 8:22am
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Projection Update GLD

My last update of harmonic projection for gold at The Setup For The Big Trade was the GLD ETF fund on 17 July.

Gold is a really tough asset to do this with and the cycle component is not all that strong, causing technical difficulties for projections. But what I posted remains for back checking later so I just pick the strongest I have discerned out of the (always) several competing scenarios, and post it, right or wrong.

Here is a review of the chart on 17 July and right under it the updated version:

I put the projection in inverted form as well as normal for readers' convenience. That's a pretty good half year!

As you can see we have a walk forward problem. Are we there? That recent up week to today, mid August, is close enough to be possibly the reversal I hoped for after mid August.

On the other hand this can also be the last rally before GLD goes sinking into that period projected.

And of course never forget this is a guess! The projection can be broken with GLD sailing off on a totally different course into the future!

On balance, if that has any meaning in financial markets, I have taken this from it. It's working so far, last month worked out really well and highly correlated to this projection. So I'm waiting until 20-24th to see what happens. I don't want to get it wrong and I don't want to miss the bus. But you do have to choose .....

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 8:54am
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SLV weekly projection update

The SLV weekly projection update is below.

I have placed both normal and inverted projections on the chart. SLV is tracking both projections at the same time, taking direction from one for a while and then switching to the other, and later back again.

Trend breakouts and breakdowns are times to look for inversion of scenario, but it still awkward to deal with, though the helping factor is that turn dates remain the same regardless of which scenario plays.

Anyway here it is:

This looks like SLV may have inverted back to the upper projection when it broke 15.00.

If that is so, and if it remains the case, then a conventional mid-summer weakness is upon silver, and a November weakness may follow with a rally through end of year into Q1 2016. Good for seasonal traders maybe?

I have to say I'm not totally convinced with this, though willing to look at it that way for the moment. It's a very open case if this is a useful analysis at the moment. Bottom line is: the silver seasonal tendencies have been chopped up badly in recent years by external factors and we must recognize that when looking at rhythmic moves in SLV.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 10:38am
Pete
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FWIW 60m gold

Fri, Aug 14, 2015 - 3:46pm (Reply to #7969)
my mothers keeper
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Friday 9 th October

Friday 9 th October should be regarded as extremely dangerous for top down actions taken against financial asset holders, banks and financial institutions in general as a long term inflection meets a huge G-V high then. from what I've got I place great emphasis is on the violence part of that effect at that time.

bummer...that's my birthday!

Sat, Aug 15, 2015 - 1:44pm
Pete
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Gold daily; the "min-2" pivot ml

In any market, the pivots with at least 2 days between them ("min-2") should be considered in the analysis. This is the latest min-2 ml and its parallels:

Sat, Aug 15, 2015 - 3:20pm
Pete
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Gold daily; the "min-3" pivot ml

The pivots selected have at least 3 days between them. They give a larger-view insight into the trend compared to "smaller" pivots. The last 2 "min-3" mls are both sloping down, and the next one will almost surely also slope down. Bulls need to see an upsloping min-3 ml to get more aggressive (add to trading positions). This could take weeks or months to develop. "Uneconomic dumping" of paper contracts (causing sharp declines) creates this technical condition of larger downsloping mls, prolonging the bear market.

 

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