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The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:23am (Reply to #7925)
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The central banks have a

The central banks have a stated aim of eliminating the business cycle. They study it well and have access to many of it's inputs, so it has a transparency to them where at the same time it is opaque to the average person. I support institutional analysts fall in between according to their ability and resources.

And yet we still have a business cycle.

Therefore either it is not within their power to eliminate it, or their stated aim is different from their actual aim. Draw your conclusions as to their actual aim.

The central banks are always emphasizing their power to overcome financial opposition, and it's true they have great financial power. But they manipulate confidence with information. This is not a confirmation that they have the power they try to impress the people with, but implies something else.

To really understand what central bankers are about we need to look at the life cycle of the central banking sector of society. Like art they do well during times of a dominant power. they require institutional backing and a strong ruler, and they aspire to be symbiotic with that ruler to conquer other territories of perceives chaotic rule. So the central bank has essentially a lifetime which coincide with a civilization or empire. I wrote an article which is tangentially about this in the AM Blog a year or more ago in which I looked at the transfer and retention of wealth and power when empires fall.

So a monetary system has a life shorter than an empire, like eg 30 years, and the interest rate matches that in that low interest rates coincide with dominance and peace, and high interest rate coincide with threat to dominance, multiple division of power etc.

Therefore a cycle larger than the interest rate cycle is one which may describe the lifespan of central banking. In the past this could mean that monitoring eg naval dominance would predict central banker power and prospects.

I would suggest that looking at the flow of real assets and their consumption, and gold would be one of those items, is a good way to estimate the power and future power of a central bank(er). Where stuff is going is an absolute indicator of the ability to project power. The rate of change over time of that flow would be predictive.

At the moment central banks are up because sovereign defaults against bond holders are down. If you think about it, defaulting on sovereign bonds breaks big banks. So the placement of bonds into the taxpayers' pension funds is a master stroke. If the sovereign defaults on it's bonds it busts the pensions of it's voters and public at the same time. So central banks are and have been creating their protection by mingling their assets among the publics' assets.

A separation of public assets savings (not debt) and bank assets (debt obligations) would allow the breaking of the bond holding class. No sign of that yet. Overthrow of state from within or without are the alternate ways. But first the dominant empire must decline. That's where we are now.

That's most of the matters you raised and let's leave it there.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:41am
Byzantium
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The lowest price low

The price-drop to the lowest low, will be an event that has been prepared for meticulously over these last years, and maybe in progress still. We are being trained to expect the worst, that gold now only goes down, and to 'know ourselves' in that any bullish sentiment or optimism within us, is just treacherous emotion, to be ignored, and not to guide our actions. The price is led to a ledge yet again, and held there for a while, while the MSM harpies come out and gloat that PM's are again to be taken behind the woodshed and have the snot beaten out of them; sell quick, before it jumps again off the ledge, while there is time and before it is too late! And that will always be the right thing to do, except during the final supposed rinse-repeat, which will not be a repeat, but a decoy to get us to sell, at what was the low. As Andrew Maguire said, there were many who were left behind in 2008, at $750 and $9, because they were waiting to buy at the retracement to $500 and $5 or lower, but it never came and they missed the boat. There were those who sold at the lows too, expecting to get it back lower, but who ended up being the suckers at the table. So there is the catch, for those in the camp who fear selling at the lows, or buying the falling knife. The MSM will always be right, except that one time when it turns. And who are the 'suckers' who they are trying to wrong-foot? I think that therein is the answer to the riddle. It isn't us minnows, we are too small, even collectively. Who has pent up buying power at the ready, or phys that they might conceivably sell, at a size that attracts the disinfo? And regarding that disinfo; pet rocks indeed. The MSM 'doth protest too much.' This is a tough one; but there are some grounds for optimism, regardless that there are considerable grounds for pessimism. I am taking the short side again with some of the swing portion, but not with the phys.

Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 12:25pm (Reply to #7920)
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@GL: Thx for the

@GL:

Thx for the recommendation.

I'll check it out, along with some of the other interesting titles he has produced.

AM

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 12:28pm (Reply to #7932)
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Edit: In the above post

Edit: In the above post :

argentus maximus wrote:
..... it has a transparency to them where at the same time it is opaque to the average person. I support institutional analysts fall in between according to their ability and resources..... 

that should have said I suggest institutional analysts fall in between according to their ability and resources .... and so on ....

Too late to correct by editing the post.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 4:08pm (Reply to #7930)
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Readers of Setup should be aware that I have been waiting for the coming few weeks for the last two years. For gold, August 2015 should contain an Archduke Ferdinand moment, and major ripples will follow for weeks/months after.

 that's heavy duty stuff!

Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:02pm (Reply to #7935)
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Ending the business cycle

"The central banks have a stated aim of eliminating the business cycle." But yet they make their money on understanding the natural sine wave of the business cycle, and can even make more by amplifying the cycles at their pleasure (derivatives come to mind here).

flyinkel
Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 3:13am (Reply to #7933)
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@Byzantium

A thousand HTs to you. You have eloquently articulated what I have recently reported as "Gold = Bad" news articles in my local paper. The third one turned up today in NZ Herald - in less than 3 weeks!

How many NZs actually buy physical you may ask. IDK, but must be disproportionate to population if they are wasting MSM on us. Unless someone else wants NZ mine production maybe?

Can you say "try to prevent NZJoe average from buying into the coming smackdown"?

I will not pretend to any market analytical abilities whatsoever, so please feel free to bypass this comment.

I feel the need to shop growing. I will resist as much as I can. smiley

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 4:35am
Byzantium
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@ Silvery Blue

a hit tip to you in turn!

Though I mooted that us stackers in aggregate are but a rounding error in the gold and silver market, you likely correctly identified that is probably the latent, slumbering general retail demand that the media campaign is aimed at. They don't want it to wake up at all, or at least until it is too late. (The implications though of this logic, is that an historic smack-down is indeed being planned).

Goldbug = weird fringe person = deluded geek to be laughed at = anti society = subversive. Such sentiment will ensure that people will not buy even at giveaway prices, and will always choose a BigMac or even bubble-gum over a silver eagle.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 7:34am (Reply to #7938)
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SilveryBlue wrote: A thousand

SilveryBlue wrote:

A thousand HTs to you. You have eloquently articulated what I have recently reported as "Gold = Bad" news articles in my local paper. The third one turned up today in NZ Herald - in less than 3 weeks!

How many NZs actually buy physical you may ask. IDK, but must be disproportionate to population if they are wasting MSM on us. Unless someone else wants NZ mine production maybe?

And yet, most gold bugs bought based on erroneous information provided by the alternative metals media. Little mention. And those who have a track record of being right continue to say, it's not time. Seems the gold pumpers never mention those small realities. You buying gold for the end of the world type or interested in preserving your money with some sane analysis connected to it? 

So how are the good folks in NZ being mislead by the MSM? Maybe they are smarter than the gold bugs hanging out here and are going to buy when the price is right?

Are you going to tell them to buy hand over fist at this juncture? You seem to have a corner on the next best low? Yeah? I don't see that as the message being broadcasted in this forum or in either of the trading forums. While sometimes AM's message escapes me, I don't see that kind of emotionalism in his analysis or in any of the trading forums.

Your sentiment seems like most gold bugs, not based on the charts, but predicated on false presumptions that have not manifested and those with the good track records don't see manifesting.

"Gold" has proven to be a dangerous religion ie gold bugs. If it's ok, I'll just call myself an investor and forgot all the ra ra bullshit and not tie my identity into an investment. Gold Bugs Ba wa wa... The only subset of investors that claim righteousness over the masses while screaming that life isn't fair because of distorted markets.

 It may prove to be a wonderful investment eventually but sentiment and analysis like this is the exact reason that most gold bugs have either been washed out or sitting on the side lines without a pot to piss in and are going to miss the best buying prices. Stick with the analysis provided here and let your sentiment follow. Not the other way. Don't worry about the masses. They aren't in the red. You are. 

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 8:36am
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@ soulscape

Or then again, maybe you read too much into silvery's post.

Where did he express anxiety or concern at the plight of the supposed ignorant masses? Where was he bawling that things are unfair?

The topic at hand, is that the MSM is choosing this time to disparage gold; this is noteworthy. Argentus above describes the possibility of an 'Archduke Ferdinand' moment in August. Nobody on this thread claims to know whether any historic move, if it comes, will be up or down; we are just noting that something is up, and agreeing, I think, that we cannot anticipate the direction of the coming move (unlike the MSM in fact, who claim to know).

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 9:10am (Reply to #7941)
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"Argentus above describes the

"Argentus above describes the possibility of an 'Archduke Ferdinand' moment in August."

If there is an obvious moment that satisfies this, how awesome will it be? Not particularly because I'll make money (maybe I will, maybe I won't) but because it will show conclusively how the politicians, who the general public think actually matter, are simply a slave to other processes that only some understand. Everyone is watching the waves while AM is describing the tides.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 10:29am (Reply to #7941)
soulscape
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Byzantium wrote:Or then

Byzantium wrote:

Or then again, maybe you read too much into silvery's post.

Where did he express anxiety or concern at the plight of the supposed ignorant masses? Where was he bawling that things are unfair?

His general statement regarding the amount of people buying gold in NZ being disproportionate speaks directly to the mindset I am referring to. Since he didn't provide much analysis or factual basis for his statement, then it's pure feelings. They just don't know but we do. All feelings. 

His analysis (sentiment) consists of 3 articles in some local newspaper. Not an overwhelming analysis of what's happening in the media. I did take the time to look, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal. If you do the exercise, I think you'll find there is no sudden turn in the sentiment on gold in the MSM. Just some uber-bearishness and maybe not the nefarious plot that you suspect. 

His prior posts, just a few posts prior espouses a theory on CB being God and can do what they like, which was equally uninformed. No bawling huh? Green Lantern and AM deftly handled that question with good support. Not iota of truth in his statements . Again, talking from one's personal feelings without any substitutive argument So no, I'm not twisting his words or reading anything more into his words than what they suggest. I'll assume he is a proud Gold bug waiting to buy more with whatever fiat he has left over. Looking for any reason to buy more as soon as possible.

MSM is choosing this time to disparage gold is noteworthy

Both of your speculations is that there is a sudden turn in sentiment in the media and it has a nefarious goal. Again, a little more surveying will show, it's not that sudden. But Ok, Could be a way to shake the rest out and keep the population at bay...Time will tell, but to me it looks like a rather shallow reading of the bearish news.

Here's another possibility at the continued (not so sudden) bearish attitude of gold from the MSM by Armstrong.

Now we begin to see the bearishness rise in the precious metals because quite frankly, the gold promoters put out such total bullshit with endless excuses to explain why they are always wrong, this group helps to create that attitude of rendering the precious metals a joke among mainstream investments and without that there is no bull market. The Wall Street Journal sais, Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock.”  Bloomberg News ran an article saying “Gold Is Only Going to Get Worse.” The Washington Post says, “Gold is Doomed.” 

So at best, the MSM is reactionary to price and not forward thinking. Price leads the news. I wonder who said that? Not much of a case of an all out conspiracy yet. without them, there ain't gonna be a homecoming No surprise. On their own, they are lucky if they get the weather right. I'd suggest you might want to look for bigger entities going bearish. I don't believe it has happened yet.

Not every report of an impending storm is a nefarious ploy to get Target sales up. Sometimes, it just means it's going to rain and time to bring in your lounge chairs. The wisdom is knowing the difference. 

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 10:49am
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Soulscape

First, I believe Silvery is a she, not a he. I agree with Byz, you seem to ascribe a great deal to her post that was not written there, a bit unfairly to Silvery Blue in my opinion. 

Second, when you write "Gold has proven to be a dangerous religion to goldbugs. If it's ok, I'll just call myself an investor and forgot all the ra ra bullshit and not tie my identity into an investment. Gold Bugs Ba wa wa..." I find the tone interesting, because of all the tens of thousands investing websites out there you choose to read and post at a Precious Metals website. This seems a curious choice for someone who holds pm's and pm investors in such low regard, why would one bother? If you believe nearly all other pastures are greener, why not graze there?

Finally, I would simply point out that right from the beginning, Argentus titled this thread "The setup for the big trade" which rather directly means that he believes PMs will indeed be a big trade someday, big enough that he feels it worthwhile to spend literally years analyzing and working to time the setup to it. So I would suggest that perhaps investing in gold and silver is not, to him at least, the moronic exercise you seem to be describing it as. Food for thought, anyway.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 11:35am
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@ soulscape

Well articulated, and a good challenge, but I would moot the following.

The nature of this thread is to anticipate and then identify a bottom, and hopefully to identify what comes after. Nobody here claims to know, but taking a view on the MSM is one of the tea leaves, and of course your own reading may well be the correct one. 

Personally, I trust the MSM not a jot, but that does not mean that I automatically believe the opposite of what they say.

But please consider also this; Martin Armstrong and the MSM are united in their disparaging of gold; Martin is quite clear that in a collapse situation, that having gold won't be any help. Fine, everybody vs the gold bugs, or maybe not..... 

Let's look at this again; are Martin Armstrong and the MSM, in the same camp when it comes to their views on the stability of the system? Interesting; now the supposed alliances in points of view, switch through tweaking the topic. Martin is a third and separate view from goldbugs and the MSM. He doesn't think that gold is the answer to anything, but if I am not mistaken, he shares a view with the goldbugs that fools and desperate people are at the levers of power, and there may be seismic trouble ahead.

I don't think I am misquoting Armstrong if I suggest that his views are emphatically that our leaders are worse than useless, and not only exacerbate problems, but in fact largely ARE the problem. They will tax and confiscate anything that they can when the money runs out. Hey, that's what the gold-bugs think too. 

In this light, readers of the MSM might indeed turn out to be the worst informed. 

<sorry for late edits>.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 11:44am (Reply to #7945)
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Byzantium wrote: Martin

Byzantium wrote:

Martin Armstrong and the MSM are united in their disparaging of gold; Martin is quite clear that in a collapse situation, that having gold won't be any help. Fine, everybody vs the gold bugs, or maybe not..... 

Let's look at this again; are Martin Armstrong and the MSM, in the same camp when it comes to their views on the stability of the system?

I disagree with your summary of Martin's Armstrongs thoughts. You use the word "disparaging" when he clearly believes gold will have it's day. Bearish isn't = to disparaging.

His thoughts of how gold will be useful is not as you say. I won't take the time to reference as you didn't either.

I don't see Armstrong at all with in same camp as MSM. Not even remotely. Not the same tools, long term forecasts geopolitically, financially. Little resemblance except for your perception that they are both disparaging. I find him encouraging and a good reason to be in gold. Just not the same reasons the majority accepts.

I am not tweaking the topic (if I understand your statement) I am addressing statements being made. If I raise other points not made,that is not tweaking the topic.

It's hard to have this conversation without specific references. And these little sidebars might very well be a distraction.

So enough. You've made your point. I disagree. I've made mine. You disagree. That's fair. Everybody had a say.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 11:48am
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@Pining

 I diligently commented on silverblue's thoughts on what's up with the MSM and their attitude on gold and how that came about and her thoughts on CB's. I do apologize for calling her a he. That was not meant to be an intentional slight. 

 I don't believe I incorrectly ascribed any preconceptions she held on the nature of central banks or her philosophy on gold and your opinion lacks specificity which Byzantium called me on but I addressed. It would be appropriate for her to address anything that I misascribed or present clarity in her own thoughts since we are reading her words differently.

Your implication is I am a troll. Why am I here? etc, etc,And also taking the time to reiterate the purpose of this forum and incorrectly assuming my views on gold. And that's not just my opinion. I know since I hold them.

 In recent days right here on this forum and on Pailins forum, I've posted my believes that gold will be a good long term investment. My intention to buy at lows both here and in Pailins forum. My concerns over repressive government policies and how it will effect the role of the bullion trade in the future. I also expressed my appreciation for AM's knowledge as well as confusion. I expressed thanks for him answering my questions directly. Does this help resolve your curiosity of why I am here? I am here for the same reason you are...I see AM's expertise and I appreciate it. But after that, we might have very different believes on the nature of gold.

So you find my tone interesting?? I'd be more grateful if you were more direct because my tone has nothing to do with being anti-gold, anti-metals, it has to do with the degree of misinformation that is constantly put out over this investment which is echoed almost weekly on other metals related websites that are ultimately bullish. I don't consider AM's or Pailins forum to be part of the misinformation source. Particular individuals. Why of course. But if posting contrary opinions to fellow investors is not welcome, I will happily oblige. 

I don't refer to myself as a gold bug for several reasons.A gold investor but not a bug. No 1) I don't intend on holding gold throughout my life time. Rather being philosophic, dogmatic, when it comes time to sell to the market, I will move to the next thing that is in favor. I won't identify myself with that investment anymore than I do gold. That is not being negative. I imagine AM has some thoughts on thats. I wonder if a man of this level of expertise of trading and analysis calls himself by the name of his investment 2.) I don't share the same reasons why gold will go up as you do. I don't believe the dollar will end in my lifetime or there will be a gold standard. Therefore I do not subscribe to the same mindset that others who call themselves gold bug's. I am an investor and my trading days are behind me.

So I hope I'm clear. I am a gold investor that finds great potential for gold albeit a lot of uncertainty. I admire AM for his technical skill. I do believe a big setup is in the works (no need for the sermon) it's why I am here. 

I would be curious as to where you got the idea that I was suggesting metals were moronic? I'd suggest you are as guilty as misascribing others thoughts as what you've accused me of. I've cleared mine up for clarity sake. Silverblue hasn't. Please be more diligent with your comments.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 11:58am
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Very well explained

And no, I didn't think you were a troll (no having been a member for four plus years) just thought you were saying you did not think gold to be a good investment, and I wondered why you would stay at a PM site. You cleared it up nicely, thanks for taking the time to do so. 

And I better understand your position now, we are all just trying to figure out timing and allocation. Timing is a hard thing, we all do the best we can.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 12:22pm
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@ soulscape

peace; there was no hostility or attempt to twist anything in the posts above, and it isn't a contest of who is right, just an exchange of views.

But there is a loose end that now needs clearing up, and I invite you to do us the service.... 

I read Martin Armstrong semi regularly, but when I quote him, some say that I have misunderstood him, or misquote him. On the topic of what Martin thinks of gold (because he sure doesn't think it will be much use in a collapse scenario, if I am not mistaken), then what is the nature of his endorsement of holding gold?

This isn't a trick question; I think that many of us here would benefit from a timely summary of his views on it. My recollections from years of sporadically reading him, is that to reach its full price potential, gold has to first fall to $900 to slingshot it there to the highs, but that gold cannot thrive or hit those highs in a collapse scenario, which is one of the issues where he parts company with gold-bugs.

If you are familiar enough with Martin's views on gold to take a stab at summarising them here, then truly, it would be a welcome post.

Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 2:12pm
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Some of the best posts here

Some of the best posts here are from you guys & gals.

There are arguments and counter arguments as to whether to be bullish for gold at the moment. I should say that I am itching to become bullish but am not convinced the recent down swing is yet over.

And if tomorrow I was to suddenly see this "completion" and decide "it is in" how bullish would I become?

SHort and maybe medium term. I haven't seen the long term low begin to form yet. In my humble opinion. But medium term can launch a nice rally.

That's a big question, because I'm looking more at August, and Martin Armstrong is another analyst of periodic price moves and he has highlighted end of September as a crucial moment. I see September and October too but more for otherassets than gold.

I can say that I have detected a "trend" in analysts, who might not have the best track record for eg gold, several of them so far, to make statements of this sort: " ... after a short time gold will shoot up and you will either be in or too late" .... and "after the coming few weeks it will all be different" ...or "the economy and stats will crash in Q3" .... not the exact words but overall they're coming out with messages like that.

Now these are not the pick of the crop imho, and imo they are covertly latching onto Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model forecast for late this year, but they're not honest enough to say what they're doing, or to give credit, even in advance. They're setting themselves up to capitalize in kudos (and presumeably earning power) if the forecast from the big fella works out.

As well as this observed (I may be imagining it) effect there is also a trend if I may call it that to look at the produce of web scanning algorithms which lock into internet discussion and produce forecast type information reports. I would like to say that I regard this a s very suspect and would never ever put my risk capital on the line on the back of such information. I might regard it as a vague indicator of internet retail chatter, regard retail as the less reliable segment of investors, and consider doing the opposite, but only if my own tested methods already said I should do so.

So what do I think of Armstrong? I think he is a tried and tested analyst and a good promoter of self for obvious business reasons. Good for him, and if you have not found an advantage or edge yet he might point you in the right direction. There are other lower profile people in the same style too, lok them up. Use them all and rely on none. That means stops are essential whatever you do.

And that's a downright bummer if you are buying physical precious metal.

Because you buy slow and sell slow, with high delivery cost, and wide margins and it just doesn't suit getting out fast whenever the market goes against you and proves you wrong. So stackers build positions and if they do it right they do most of their buying low, low in relation to what follows in the weeks, months and years that follow. This leaves the stackers who bought too high exposed by a lengthy fall in price. They become hapless investors locked in underwater positions. The traders' advice is simple. Sell it and clear the position. But the margins, and freight, and....... conspire to make this advice seem to be of reduced value.

To call them goldbugs and cast aspersions is a foolishness that will hopefully rebound upon those who do it in some future market swing. The main people (more professionsl analysts who do these callouts) who get discussed for this are not imo casting aspersions against goldbugs (long term traders) per se. They are pointing towards retail sellers of precious metals who style themselves as analysts but give bad advice along the lines of everyday is a good time to buy gold ASAP. Then they don't give names and the mud thrown spatters more widely than it should.

No matter; the markest were always like that.

The brutal reality is if gold makes a new low tomorrow, and you bought last year, last week, yesterday or today, you were wrong. BUT if you didn't buy "back then at that higher price than now" how does buying tomorrow make things better, seeing as you will have exactly the same information tomorrow and eg last year. You're just playing Russian Roulette but having another beer before picking up the gun!

This leads us back to the importance of having an edge. If you don't know what it is you don't have one. But having an edge does not make the next decision right. Far from it. Nor the decision after that. All having an edge does is suggest that overall after many decisions you will come out ahead overall. Why did I say "suggest" there, because the world could be changing and your edge may be gone but you don't know it yet.

So you never know! Ever!

But prices go up and they go down, and buying whe they are down should be an edge, right? The true answer is only if you buy late enough before it rises again, or alternatively if you wait long enough. That seems unsatisfactory, but as a stacker it's the big bad truth. As a trader you should have got out, back in, out again, back in again, and when it all goes right be "in" ready for the ride.

If you look at this objectively, you will come to the view that buying for the long term, stacking (what retail seller did that word come from) is more difficult than trading, not less. You just have less opportunity to correct mistakes at low cost.

So what do you do?

You wait when it pays to wait, and try your hardest to figure when that is. And when the market goes down you begin to learn something. The fundamentals don't drive price. They never did. If you research thoroughly and go far enough back you will find that there never was "a good old days" when price wasn't manipulated and price reacted to reality. Never.

So be a trader and buy the support and resistance and get out quick when they don't hold, not an easy thing with high frequency trading stop buster trades flying everywhere. And if you are a "stacker" come to the conclusion finally, that you are a trader too. A long term trader, but still a trader. And then throw away that idea that fundamentals matter. Truth doesn't matter. Honesty doesn't matter. The market is something else entirely. It moves away from the wishes of the weaker players seeking more conflict between strong and weak. That could be an edge even if it is a derivative of support and resistance.

I have typed too much so here's a chart update for SLV and silver. It shows the current status of harmonic projection for the two scenarios competing for dominance at the moment. I can't say that another unshown scenario won't win out instead, but I have learned how to bet.

There's no real change in outlook over last few weeks, but getting close if this is going to be of use. We might be said to be "in the zone of error". Only subsequent price movement will confirm or fail to confirm that.

In inverted form (that means four scenarios above not two!) August looks like it might be important. There are also a good many other reasons why August looks important to me. I'll deal with September when it arrives. I also marked dates on some other times when things could get interesting.

Other people look at patterns. Here's one you might want to look at this short term trader today.

Russell 2000 & The 200 Bar MA | Gold Still Heavy Says Oscar Carboni 07/30/2015 #1350

Youtube: Russell 2000 & The 200 Bar MA | Gold Still Heavy Says Oscar Carboni 07/30/2015 #1350

Pay attention to the relative height of the patterns Oscar is showing and the relative implications in his next target. It can be construed in a way that is a similar to my harmonic chart above.

I would also mention that in my humble opinion a short term downswing could go missing this time round so for the very last dance the band might choose to play the music backwards. Extreme care required at the time of most danger - which is the usual for this game.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - 4:32pm (Reply to #7950)
SamSchlepps
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FWIW - Dates of Interest

Just saw something of interest and then the April 2016 date by AM.

https://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/31/c_134467498.htm

BEIJING, July 31 (Xinhua) -- As growth has become a scarcity for world economy since the international financial crisis struck in 2008, China is harnessing global economic growth by leading regional development, promoting capacity cooperation and establishing multilateral investment institutions.

China experienced a second-quarter economic growth of 7 percent at a time when the country actively seeks a slowdown in pace and focuses more on efficiency of its economy, making it still the main driver for the world economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that China contributed to global economic growth by 27.8 percent, higher than the U.S. contribution of 15.3 percent. The institution expects the Chinese figure to grow to 28.5 percent this year. Shrinking demand caused by the international financial crisis has forced China to alter its traditional way of contributing to world economy mainly by foreign trade. As a result, the world's second largest economy has changed its role from beneficiary of world trade to creator of new models of cooperation and from a commodity supplier to global market to a capital provider, innovating and upgrading the way it contributes to world economy while maintaining a stable growth in its contribution.

...The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) officially opened in Shanghai last week to finance infrastructure projects, mainly in BRICS countries, and K.V. Kamath from India has been chosen as the president of bank. The first batch of projects of the bank are expected to be implemented by April 2016...

Thanks all!

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