The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 1:38pm (Reply to #7851)
Solsson
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Green Lantern wrote: Very

Green Lantern wrote:

Very honest, enlightened perspective!!!

hehe I know what buttons to push in order get the best out of him devil on a more serious note I think you misunderstood my post AM and that is entirely my fault, I am not very good at communication. Anyway, I mean how will we be able to have a meaningful discussion of RNP stuff without exposing valuable info?

You are getting old AM, the correction was 2days early blush no worries I am all in already, feeling a little bit better now. Working with high leverage is exhausting. After the correction I will skip it for life. If the correction and pivot plays out the way you think it would AM, I will build a Viking ship, sail over to Ireland and give you a big hug ! I've been in a very bad spot lately, made a couple of horrible trading mistakes.

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 2:01pm (Reply to #7852)
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Just bring your stops right

Just bring your notional or mental stops right into the edge of the high and low for the day I marked and observe what happens.

And I could be 2 days off of course! Today is a peak for an inflection which smudges out to 24th, but in general today should contain a lot of the action for the current 3 day period.

But that inflection for OMX? Well I have not backtested for it, but you know ....... without testing let's see if it takes on a trendline (new high ?) that day and turns back from it or pierces it on the price bar. That's the reason for my suggestion of following bar breakout of previous day's range by the way. Stops get set at the opposite side of the inflection bar at first and then brought to midpoint of inflection bar, then draw to the proximate edge of range for inflection bar ... if price moves away in the correct direction.

Risk is the daily range at first. When tested it can be 2 ticks.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 7:22pm
Byzantium
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Back to that price in Swiss francs....

So unsurprisingly, we bombed in Swiss francs as well as all the other currencies. The support at 1100 Swiss francs got trashed on Sunday night, we fell to 1047 and currently sit at 1057.

Not up to date, but below is a chart posted previously, showing the January flash crash of gold priced in francs, before it settled back to the trading range it had fallen out of by being tied to the Euro.

On the assumption that there are no coincidences, what then might be the significance of the 965.9 franc price of gold figure, which stood for a split second in January of this year? Is it just a random figure to be ignored, a coded message to those in the know, or a momentary glimpse into the support line of gold through the eyes of somebody powerful enough to move markets? My hunch is that something was revealed to us on that day, whether intentional or not.

Once all this is in the rear view mirror, we might know, but I hope to know before then. Any ideas anybody, whether this momentary price from January, requires revisiting, or whether it is too opaque to draw meanings from it?

Argentus, does that price on that date make any sense when subjected to your fan-lines and other tools? 

Cheers

Byz

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 1:01am (Reply to #7854)
my mothers keeper
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Byz, we were introduced to

Byz, we were introduced to that chart on the rnp on saturday...were you able to join us? we actually spent quite a bit of time on that chart...it was all so fascinating...

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 4:03am
Byzantium
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@ Mymothers keeper

except that (iirc) that particular spike was not dwelt upon; did I miss it?

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 9:04am
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XAU-CHF

Basis daily events 2 days from now 25 July, three in August, and a long term daily in September

Basis weekly events week of 10th August and week of 24th August.

There are patterns but they're subtle and in amid a lot of forces pushing the gold/suisse cross around. However some trendlines do seem to contain the major players' actions.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 9:43am
Byzantium
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@ Argentus

that's it, thank you!

The flash crash of Jan 15 was not to a random level, but fell almost to meet one of your trend-lines, and for good measure, an ascending one. 

in terms of 'almost,' your trendline is to the XAU and not to gold itself, so yes, licence for a bit of wiggle room. 

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 9:58am
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Noticed this in Aug gold

On the daily chart this patterning has emerged. So there are weekly, daily, and large monthly swing angles all converging on 1080. With all that, you'd expect a pivot there, and we may yet get it. But this Wednesday morning we see weakness and a testing process...it's not like there is bullish enthusiasm--far from it.

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 10:25am
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Also ... remember this is the

Also ... remember this is the low volume summer period. Despite a high volume spike to get it going, price moves during low volume tend to be to a reversal and then to come back.

That's not saying stops shouldn't be used! Better to let it run to a standstill and trade that.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 12:13pm
Pete
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FWIW a look at WTI

Looks to me like continued weak crude oil prices with a probable retest of the 44 area. This should keep pressure on gold prices. The Fib relationship to the 2008 crash suggests the worst may be over for crude.

The short trade at the recent weekly tops above 61 was text book easy. Or on the weekly close under the old MLH near 59.60.

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 2:04pm
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Thank you Pete....

for posting your long term charts along w/analysis and price objectives. Excellent and cheers. 

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 4:30am
Solsson
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Back in Gold&Silver business (the paper version)

Tx for the trading bar info AM I am going to watch it closely tomorrow, A stockmarket relief today, Greece said yes to become a multidecade debt slave angry 

Made some quick tactical reallocations in the portfolio yesterday after a horrible golf experience. You play good golf with an empty head, not the same for trading. Ok I saved a little bit cash to buy physical, I think now is a good time to buy.

Portfolio:

Gold Certificate: 5%
Silver Certificate: 5%

Victoria Gold: 10%
Kootenay Silver: 10%

Bear S&P 500: 25%
Bear OMX: 25%

Cash: 20%

Insider buying in Victoria:
https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?ticker=VIT

Always a good sign, however as always do you own DD, do not trust me I am down -17% for the year.

And last:
Some say Banro and Premier Gold is a good buy after a sharp decline. No I do not own these companies.

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 7:29am
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GLD VAP update

Here is an update of the most important activity in progress from this thread's point of view.

The chart is GLD in weekly (compressed to include bat to the 2008 high and 2009 low volume.

In my last update post #7801 on July 17, 2015 - 1:48pm and using VAP I had this to say of GLD:

argentus maximus wrote:

After posting the VAP from the 2009 low, it was necessary to do another but this time including the 2008 high and run up to it. Thus the support and resistance for the 2008 top in included.

Rather surprisingly, the picture does not change much:

This says in the big picture GLD goes to 100 and then to 140. We will see in time.

* * *

And so we come one week later and the breakdown towards support is well in hand, and possibly looking enticing for a purchase. But is buying premature and will this continue to better prices? Let's see what the study says:

The price of GLD is now moving into the volume void centered at 101 to access business activity available at the price level. The support under price at that point is shown by the volume at price histogram at left side.

The heat mapped price bars indicate a volume increase as price is entering this area.

It seems that everything is working out as expected and as described here in Setup back on 17th July.

I watch and wait for the moment, and recollect that harmonic projection peak (low) about 20 August.

No action required, just a steady hand on the tiller .....

... assuming I have got it right! How can one tell except to wait, then look back and see.

A short term downtrendline over the recent daily price highs might be appropriate about now.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 7:47am
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Inflection

Just a reminder ... we are in a strong inflection today and tomorrow.

Support and resistance for many assets are due to be tested and either broken or rejected, so breakouts and turns.

So technically I want to wait, on EW I want to see more micro waves down before buying, but with inner nonlinear structure like this, if it can't break down at a time like this, I will reconsider on the waiting and see what looks best.

Possibly this is a moment when stocks must choose between continuation and reversal to the bull? Or the people behind the stocks doing the buying and selling .... Now who has been buying a lot of stocks recently, that would be the central bankers. Their balance sheets rate of growth are diverging methinks to the point that perhaps protests are arising between the members of that select group of masters of the universe.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 12:32pm
Solsson
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Oups a little bit too early

Oups a little bit too early again, ok I couldn't hold my horses any longer ...

Yes I remember areas to be consumed, so first Mr Market consume 100area and then he walks back up to 140, nice yes do we got the same for a less shiny metal than gold? 14,5 first and then 24? That would be even nicer.

No we do not want a restored bull in common stock. They have had their fun for the last 7years. Now it's our time to have som fun in my humble opinion.

EDIT:

Hmm, here is a brave thought to exploit this upcoming situation to the max:

When (not if) GLD hits 100, then buy NUGT: Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x Shares, it's a nice surprise that I found it at my broker in Sweden:

https://www.avanza.se/borshandlade-produkter/etf-torg/om-fonden.html/310658/direxion-daily-gold-miners-bull-3x-shares

-42% in a week ... ouch. I know Gary Savage bought this aggressively earlier this week.

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 2:23pm (Reply to #7833)
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@Soulscape

soulscape wrote:
*.... Second, I am ultimately metals bullish or wouldn't be here or reading Armstrong. Not only do I own a healthy stash just like most of you, I have more cash to put into the game. So I'm all aboard putting some portion of my life's savings into gold and silver at much better prices. I'm not going to miss the ride up whatever it's destination.

**...... If, IF, gold and silver eventually creates significant wealth for it's owners, I am assuming, like all things, all markets, there will be a top and there will be a time to move those assets. I don't want to re-live my friends experience. That was in relative good times and less restrictions. Armstrong seems to think there will be digital currencies, I'm thinking if that is the case, I'll need some of that even if it operates under the watchful eye of government. No more all eggs in one basket mentality.

***...... So if Armstrongs speculation is based on cycles, I assume that he uses historical analogies, cycles to not only predict markets and the same cycles to consider the financial realities of the future. I simply would be interested to know what AM's thoughts are on those realities given he uses similar tools.

Attempting to reduce the reply required I will concentrate the three parts quoted above from your post:

* I am not bullish at the moment. Haven't been for about a month and a half. But we are moving towards a buying point at the moment. There wil be other buying points too I expect. In general I consider the possibility of 3-4 smaller lows after this incoming (or arrived) low within the current quarter. What I am doing is accumulating at preferable prices as I see (think I see) the opportunity to do so within a ranging price formation,for which the lowest low may not be in yet..

** Eggs in one basket mentality = asking to take a big economic custard pie tossed by the clowns in charge right in the face. On the possibility of creation of significant wealth via gold and silver it is possible, it's also possible that taxation on such a profit may rise substantially between now and then.

*** I have watched Mr Armstrong's output since the 1980s well before he spent time in prison. I followed it while he ran the business known as PEI. And I studied cycles back then and through to the present. So I am deeply familiar with his work. I am not of the opinion that artificial intelligence was involved but he maintains that was the case, and is today. Maybe it is today I don't know but I have opinions on the matter. He keys off interest rate cycles in the main, and so does politics and confidence in government. He also uses esoteric inputs in my opinion. His forecasts pre 2012 and after are different due apparently to a large inversion which a careful reading of his work will locate, and this has been documented in my posts at TFMR also as the effect of quantitative easing or money printing.

His social commentary is always interesting but quite or possibly very long term in context, though usually of value. Armstrong is one of the better ones out there IMO.

My own thoughts on the financial system of the future will have to be posted at a later time. I have other matters to attend to at the moment. Long term forecasts can wait a bit!

I hope this was helpful.

The opinions expressed above are personal opinions based upon partial information and not implied or stated as fact.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 7:08pm
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Solsson

In response to Argentus' post on Volume at Price, I was surprised to read that you would go long NUGT when GLD hits 100 based on Argentus chart. Maybe this is due to a misunderstanding on my part. From what I remember of trading using VaP (or volume by price, as some term it), the traditional way to use it is that the lower volume areas on the chart (centered at 100 GLD in this case) should be considered "air pockets" from a trading perspective, and that price will shoot very quickly through them to the next high volume area. That is to say, the classic example is when price breaks a formerly strong support that has lots of previous trading volume, price will then shoot down through the "gap" (i.e., lower volume areas) until it hits a price where volume gets larger. 

In this case, the VaP chart looks like a very significant gap between 104.5 (where we are now) to at least 96 (roughly gold at 1000$, USD), and possibly as low as 90 (940$ gold, USD). So why would you be going long at 100 when classic VaP trading would seem to say that that is an area that will be quickly passed through to a lower bound? Am I missing something regarding your or Argentus' use of this type of chart?

Just wondering, and thank you for posting your trades! For the record, I am as short today as I have been in quite some time (via DSLV), would be stopped out at a rise above 1100$ gold USD, but am positioned this way because I am looking for a major drop. If we go below 1075 I am pretty sure this trade will be a success down to 980-1000 area. Perhaps in short order. We will see. 

Fri, Jul 24, 2015 - 4:10am
Solsson
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Thank you Pining for the

Thank you Pining for the Fjords (Är du norrman, din Engelska är lite väl bra för det haha) this is the first time I've ever seen a VaP chart so I could be dead wrong. Yes I have my stops for gold and silver at 1075 and 14.45. We bounced at 1077 and a sharp recovery back up to 1080, silver bounced at 14.50. I really really want these levels to be THE LOW but let the market decide.

OMX inflection, this is how I see it, we are at the black circle right now:

I think all the gaps from the impulsive rally is ready to be filled, exiting days ahead of us, all stockmarkets more or less has the same setup.

I dont know why I keep doing these trading mistakes (buying gold/silver certificate, I've not bought NUGT yet), my inbox is full of updates from internet gurus and they all said they bought NUGT this week. I think they all sold with a great loss yesterday. What can I say TRUST Argentus Maximus and no internet guru, bcos most of them is missing they key component to be really skilled at this, AM is different!

Anyway Bear OMX and S&P is looking really good now.

Wow Timmins Gold at 38c I sold at 89c with a -21% loss, I thought at the time, I am selling at the bottom now, but I didn't obviously, brutal markets right now.

Have a nice weekend, it's been a fantastic week I've learned a lot!

Fri, Jul 24, 2015 - 6:20am (Reply to #7868)
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My take is the price seeks

My take is the price seeks volume. Therefore when confronted with a VAP "low" or "void" or "valley" the price bounces up and down, which on VAP is from side to side of the valley and touching the higher volume either side of it.

This creates a trading range in price which by adding volume to the sloping sides of the "void" slowly fills it in. At first the trading range could structure in such a way that price gaps from the low to the high within the trading range.

As regarding the VAP peaks, these also attract but price does not linger there long, and tends to slide over quite fast and continues onwards looking for volume at a price on the far side of that peak.

What we really need is a time lapse video whereby we get to watch the VAP and price doing their thing at an accellerated rate. If a reader here has the skills it would benefit all to actually see the interaction between attraction and repelling price levels. In the absence of such a video I hope this potted description of my take on VAP suffices. Setup is always open for better contributions however!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jul 24, 2015 - 4:42pm
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@ Argentus

Was that an inflection or what?

Im not sure what to make of this week. Its been a pig.

But......

At the end of the week I observe the following:

Some volume arrived today on a quiet day.

GLD looks to have an outside reversal

SLV tried to go down and lower prices were rejected

AUN reversed about 12 days of trading declines to end the week at .23

PVG had an outside reversal day

GDXJ had an outside reversal day.

So I guess the start of next week will be fascinating. Overall the week has been a dog. There are some gaps which were not closed from the start of the week.

I await little Bo P's article over the weekend on SD confirming that the lows are in (Just to make Armstrong happy) and that we will see fireworks to the upside. The i wait for the next trading to see what will unfold. I suspect we are in for something interesting going into second week / mid of next month

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