The setup for the big trade
Eff The Fed, The BOJ, and the ECB. They can suck my balls. That is all.
Yes, but do you have a chart to go with that?
Dec Silver has reached the reaction line to the mpl cl at (spreadsheet calculated) 17.153 (high = 17.155 so far).
The 61.8% retracement level of the daily decline comes in at the same value, 17.15. This could be tough to overcome to the upside. Strong hourly close...
Dec Gold is well below its R1 line for the same decline.
This two hour chart shows the reaction line for Dec Gold for the recent daily decline.
Silver has traded higher than the past hour and needs to close the hour higher too, otherwise it's a sell indication on any further weakness.
In 60m Dec Gold. After several days of recovery, there could be a selling point for another challenge of recent lows, from the r1 area.
There's the pattern of an abc type rally (corrective), with a 5-wave c wave in progress with triangle in w.iv position). Overall it doesn't look impulsive to me.
The area where lines intersect is always more favorable for turning points. Here, the ml shown has already been hit once, and the lh has defined the lows of the triangle. It's a good fit in my opinion (a valid fork). A second touch of the ml and the r1 simultaneously (same bar), with turn indications following, would be ideal price action for a short position. (I usually take some quick profit if possible to get to a no-loss position, how quickly depending on the speed of the move in my direction. By taking an initial profit that gets me to break-even, I can be wrong without penalty.)
The reason I prefer the Babson 0-y r1 line is that it typically defines the limits of a correction, meaning a new extreme is probable shortly if it holds the closes. This r1 is only "moderately" strong; at least the action line is mpl, yet by something of a stretch.
I forgot to mention, a = c of the abc correction at 1284.4, a little above the y pivot. That line should be on the chart as a horizontal resistance too.
Price is riding just below old support. From a bull's perspective...it appears to be putting in a floor near 1270 spot to launch the next leg up.
UncleFester, hope you're correct, but the COTs aren't cooperating.
Hope all is well with AM.
Solson, where that damn moon chart! That's my trading strategy. Keep seeing you trying to turn the tide on Gary's site.
I have a bad feeling that algos would go on with "worse news" period after you posted these charts.
It looks like the serious problem with cycles approach is inversion, especially now. Armstrong/his AI flip flops now regularly with levels and also pays attention to inversion taking place or would take place.
Lately, many people with cycles approach were wrong in their analysis. For example September/October favorite period produced inverse reaction since August. At least you specified the reason - " It depends upon an inversion of long term cycles reversing timing according to monetary interventions/manipulations " Thanks.
"The evidence that was a SHORT-TERM manipulation that still could not alter the long-term trend is demonstrated by the charts below."
Argentus, Long-term trend is like 500 years nowadays? For example. 10 years old cycle is not long-term anymore? So, it works so nicely in "normal" mode until August, then inversion and instead of correction goes further up. So, what's the point about futility to manipulate long-term trend if you just can inverse it for some months or add short-term cycle that would produce 5000 points upside/downside ?
For your time and insight. At least in your charts you are posting alternate scenarios ( inversions ).
As for the year seven and current modern "alchemists" progress compared to previous years -
The cmegroup bulletin of 8/25/17 shows the low of that day for Dec gold to be 1278.50 and not what is shown on their daily chart for Dec gold. A little more poking around in the bulletins shows the lows and highs of many contracts adjusted each day from prior "prints." The meaning of the designation "A" after the price is uncertain although many lows and highs in these bulletins have this designation as well.
When the 1278.50 low is used, the 0-y line becomes perfectly mpl as it just touches the pivot low of Sep 18 (at the green dot). The action line (not drawn) is also multipivot; so with such a combination it is no surprise that price turned at the (newly drawn) crossing of R1 with the ML. Previously (with the uncorrected 8/25 low) the r1/ML cross came two days earlier. Chart here.
So this is now very clean.
When price turns at a reaction line, it is very likely to reach the next one of the same derivation, especially if price moves beyond the half-way point to the next line, which happened with gold's Friday settlement.
If the bears are serious they will/must try to break the monthly 2P line at some point.
The major line confluence is on 11/14-15. The ML x M2P occurs on Weds 11/15, a little below r2. So far the turn at r1 has not been violated by a close below the low of 1262.80, and prices should not get below this low for much time at all if the trend is to turn up and not seriously weaken.
So especially if price is not rallying into early next week but staying more or less sideways, I am alert to a "heavy handed" intraday violation of the low (down to the ML x M2P value of ~1257.50, or lower) that I hope attracts serious buying--enough to give us a close above r2 and a probable major pivot low. Closing above 1262.80 would be even more promising for a good rally continuing into December.
If there is no attempted breakdown, price will probably meander over to r2 where it will find support for a rally. It could be very strong from there. This would mean the turn near r1 was the major pivot low after all. This could have seriously bullish implications, as the major pivot low at r1 typically means the prior extreme will be reached (and maybe exceeded).
So far the market is finding support in the 62%R region of the July-Sep rally (no closes below 1269). There are other minor Fibonacci support levels close to the major line confluence. At this point I can find no other convincing minor pivot lines/structures internal to the decline from Sep 8 that join the confluence, but I'm watching.