The setup for the big trade

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Pete
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an important day for silver?

https://i.imgur.com/ZsYIucp.png

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Eff The Fed, The BOJ, and the

Eff The Fed, The BOJ, and the ECB. They can suck my balls. That is all.

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@sirtitan45

Yes, but do you have a chart to go with that?

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Heads up: Dec silver Weds AM

Dec Silver has reached the reaction line to the mpl cl at (spreadsheet calculated) 17.153 (high = 17.155 so far).

The 61.8% retracement level of the daily decline comes in at the same value, 17.15.  This could be tough to overcome to the upside.  Strong hourly close...

Dec Gold is well below its R1 line for the same decline.

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Dec Gold Weds AM

This two hour chart shows the reaction line for Dec Gold for the recent daily decline.

Silver has traded higher than the past hour and needs to close the hour higher too, otherwise it's a sell indication on any further weakness.

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Trade setup?

In 60m Dec Gold.  After several days of recovery, there could be a selling point for another challenge of recent lows, from the r1 area. 

There's the pattern of an abc type rally (corrective), with a 5-wave c wave in progress with triangle in w.iv position).  Overall it doesn't look impulsive to me.

The area where lines intersect is always more favorable for turning points.  Here, the ml shown has already been hit once, and the lh has defined the lows of the triangle.  It's a good fit in my opinion (a valid fork).  A second touch of the ml and the r1 simultaneously (same bar), with turn indications following, would be ideal price action for a short position.  (I usually take some quick profit if possible to get to a no-loss position, how quickly depending on the speed of the move in my direction.  By taking an initial profit that gets me to break-even, I can be wrong without penalty.)

The reason I prefer the Babson 0-y r1 line is that it typically defines the limits of a correction, meaning a new extreme is probable shortly if it holds the closes.  This r1 is only "moderately" strong; at least the action line is mpl, yet by something of a stretch.  

I forgot to mention, a = c of the abc correction at 1284.4, a little above the y pivot.  That line should be on the chart as a horizontal resistance too. 

DYODD.

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Update

Price is riding just below old support.  From a bull's perspective...it appears to be putting in a floor near 1270 spot to launch the next leg up.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/2eOGlxXa/

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Pete,Thanks for keeping this thing alive

UncleFester, hope you're correct, but the COTs aren't cooperating.

Hope all is well with AM.

Solson, where that damn moon chart!  That's my trading strategy.  Keep seeing you trying to turn the tide on Gary's site.

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I've been away for a few days ...

I've been away, and under the weather somewhat. Busy catching up with work now. End of financial year and tax return preparations this week are taking a lot of attention. Before I begin updating the regular work I'd like to toot my horn for this call:

argentus maximus wrote:
October 10, 2017 - 4:24pm                           #10495

.... G-V update: it's been real;ly high since September, as previously posted. There are still G-V peaks detectable during the current plateau of crazy skyhigh-ness for this forecast.

....

And after high V centred around 24th and a lesser high for both at end of month this super high G-V period will wane somewhat. Note that the global human spring has been wound tight for an extended period and that permits culmination type events, as in eg the final crisis deciding point of a protracted power contest to appear.....

I added the highlights, otherwise it's as posted 23 days ago. Remember that subcycle?

It appears that the bell has finally tolled for many sleazy lotharios in high places (who were protected from consequences of their actions before now but that protection has disappeared) .  Also, the US democrat party seems to have finally and belatedly reached the conclusion that either the embedded Clinton controls must go or it will disappear instead. Political class vs oligarch class - a power contest decision, and a substantial decision at that. Who will be appointed as the new golden haired one to reel in the gullible?

One visible sign not to be ignored: the coverage in democrat controlled media (suffering collapsing revenues now that their content is increasingly becoming flagged as inappropriate and receiving restricted online promulgation) now includes subject matter harmful to Clinton apparachiks. I don't see this change for antifa yet, maybe they serve the party enough to continue on until another day? 

But the six weeks of high G-V have concluded with a victory for the right, and also for the left which was previously under control. The left can begin a long process of reforms, which will of course be obstructed every inch of the way, but that wheel has started rolling.

Education next.

Chart forecast updates to follow.

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Daily SPX

These are short term harmonic patterns.

They are not the trend, merely the saw-teeth within the trend.

Accuracy: stats say 42% I don't think so and ascribe that to an artifact in the  algorithm. I'd give it from 12% to 25% of the total fluctuations. Longer term swings are more important for my timeframe. But this does conform tantalizingly with the expectations of a seasonal pattern for stocks.

Usual warnings apply. Not investment advice. Past doesn't govern future. Get professional advice, etc.

And in the above study the cycles seem to have bad patches followed by better patches. Stops would be far more important than any forecast, at all times, but especially in daily timeframe.

The light blue line is a 12 months walk forwards test period.

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Weekly S&P cycles

Here is a workout of thirty one of about eighty cycles in the S&P500 weekly timeframe.

The good news here is an extreme positive correlation within the two year walk forwards test period. The worse news is an opposite correlation between 2009 low and 2013 breakout.

It depends upon an inversion of long term cycles reversing timing according to monetary interventions/manipulations, and those cycles still being in place but having reverted to their former status. Which they do actually appear to be doing. Can anybody have certainty over such a thing? Of course not. but still this intrigues me. The correlation over the last 24 months is very high. Even half as good would be wonderful, if it persisted.

The first high (forecast line) is October, last month) the second, shown as a lower high retracement, is early January 2018.

And, this fits with a favoured gold scenario, if stocks and gold correlate over the coming 12 months.

.

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S&P

Argentus,

I have a bad feeling that algos would go on with "worse news" period after you posted these charts.
It looks like the serious problem with cycles approach is inversion, especially now. Armstrong/his AI flip flops now regularly with levels and also pays attention to inversion taking place or would take place.

Lately, many people with cycles approach were wrong in their  analysis. For example September/October favorite period produced inverse reaction since August. At least you specified the reason - " It depends upon an inversion of long term cycles reversing timing according to monetary interventions/manipulations " Thanks.

But...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/market-manipulations-the-greatest-scam-of-all-time/

"The evidence that was a SHORT-TERM manipulation that still could not alter the long-term trend is demonstrated by the charts below."

Argentus, Long-term trend is like 500 years nowadays? For example. 10 years old cycle is not long-term anymore? So, it works so nicely in "normal" mode until August, then inversion and instead of correction goes further up. So, what's the point about futility to manipulate long-term trend if you just can inverse it for some months or add short-term cycle that would produce 5000 points upside/downside ?

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I have not the slightest

I have not the slightest problem connecting the present day market movements ON DAILY CHARTS with scenarios played out eg 600 years ago, 300 years ago, 72 years ago and many other resonant dates in the past.

This, even saying this, causes cognitive dissonance within the minds of readers because they say: "How can I use eg 1945 and it's history to trade tomorrow and not lose my money?" It's a legitimate question. So readers who experience this cognitive dissonance "switch off" to the message in just that single sentence.

Let's take it apart a little before I move on: I didn't say 1945. I said several dates. Don't fixate on one. They are all resonant at the same time. Not just one single one of them. (And there are others) Recently I made a video for subscribers wherein I did a men-in-black movie style zoom out of the US stock market from daily to over a century, and the cycle set are all locking into each other all at the same time across all timescales. All visible in a simple gestalt optic illustration taking about 3 seconds to take in.

Now what the cycles actually are. I posted in DOTS... forum recently that people didn't know what society really is. Nobody took that challenge on. Which is perfectly fine. Society is a lot of things, and so are cycles. Very few seem to understand what they are. The word does not give the full breadth in my opinion, to those who hear it. Pretty little sine waves is not what I am talking about when I use that descriptive term.

Let me propose that manipulation of market prices is cyclical. Just temporarily accept that so you can move on with what I say next with an open mind. So, if that's so, we might see a signature or similarity in manipulation. We might also see some significant time interval appear in-between events where that particular signature repeated. That modus operandi, so to speak. Imagine you are a detective, and there are lots of burglaries, but every Monday there is one burglary which involves eg entry through removed roof tiles, and always in a house inhabited by an old age retired person. That would be a signature becoming a pattern. A cycle of sorts.

I give you gold: The time is January 1980. Gold was at 800 and rising. Paul Volker increased interest rates sharply, catastrophically for many businesses, and gold topped and began to retreat. Interest rates rose to about 25%. Jump forwards in time. In November 2015 gold made a low. Note that I skipped the high at August-September 2011 to say that. Primacy went to the first significant low of the 2010s golden bear. But let's draw those dates in as secondary timelines now. Gold topped Q3-4 2011 and made a low late 2015. Count from 1980. we have two results, two time periods. 31 years. 35 years.

Now look at the signature of the 1980 event. Interest rate volatility was used to but the gold bull. A manipulation. Count the characteristics: another Fed Head was involved, CME partners were complicit, interest rate spiked outrageously, a story emanated through the media, resource wars were raging in energy producing regions of the planet, I'll stop there. Now, from 2011 to 2015 what do we see? Interest rates spiking downwards, Fed inspired manipulations on a grand scale, CME open interest acting in quite suspicious fashions from time to time, eg April 2013. This is signature of sovereign backed involvement. And in so doing I establish a link as to the invisible hand behind the curtain. So the manipulation - which is what it is for uninformed investing public - when looked at from a larger distance and wider perspective, can be also described as periodic trades by sovereign combinations for geopolitical power struggle to steal/seize energy. And now the manipulation is a periodic predictable trade upon the larger scale which on a smaller scale is described as manipulation. At the same time it's both. Unpredictable it's not.

Chaos (manipulations?) on one timeframe are understandable and normal on another timeframe. Only for the few who look at many timeframes simultaneously.

Let's talk about market language:

I have a 1980 Comex high as 961. The number varies a bit from source to source. Another source gives me 873. Let's round these different prices into hundred sized units and say gold ran to 900 and topped (or was stopped by Volker) Now that might be 961 or 873, but I'm averaging it as 900. I never forget that it's both numbers and the middle one is a fiction just created to work with.

price = time ....

So ...

What happened every 8.7 or 9 or 9.6 years after that date? When are the next birthdays? How can that knowledge be used to discover something about the 1440 price? What other price are triggers to force the sovereigns to motivate,  enter, exit, and throw in the towel? Are there other "birthdays" to be watched and observed? (A big "yes" to that) You don't get the chart out and look these things up for yourself, you don't get to figure it out! It's all there to see. You have to look long enough to learn the language first to see what is there. I tell it like it is. The problem is people don't think that is how it should be. It does something different. They stop there. They don't look.

Did you read that and get a desire to check all those time intervals on the bonds market since 1980? Look at past footprints of the invisible giant and guess where the next footprint may fall. Then go back to gold and see if anything looks a little clearer now.

This is what this forum has been about since I started it in early 2013. Exercising patience and looking harder and thinking about what's there not what you want/hope to be there.

In your final paragraph, you mentioned a long cycle period. Chop it down to size. The market is fractal. Just do it. If there is a 25000 year cycle in the solar system as it orbits round our galactic quadrant, look for a 25 year cycle, how about 25 weeks, or even 25 days? Mark you, 25 calendar days might be a different amount of trading days.

So your post took a Martin Armstrong reply as it's base to structure the questions you asked. I have taken that position, moved your piece a few spaces forwards on the board and said look around at what is now visible. Let's step back again and look at that ten year cycle part of your post. It's actually a 10 year pattern rather than a cycle. A repetitive pattern. And the concept of "unlucky year seven" comes from the decennial pattern. A thought: is it the number 7 that's so bad, or did this all just reverberate from year one every ten years all coming from the year dot? Could the number 10/phi have anything to do with it? If that were to be the case might we look at year seven as ending something else that begins during year six? I just took that and widened the scope a lot there. Now the answer is visible to those who look.

Now let's deal with this part of your post : you said: "So, it works so nicely in "normal" mode until August, then inversion and instead of correction goes further up. So, what's the point about futility to manipulate long-term trend if you just can inverse it for some months or add short-term cycle that would produce 5000 points upside/downside ?"

There is more there than I can go into here for obvious reasons. And I don't have all the answers either. I do have some...

First a scenario is all very well. Stops are for when the scenario stops playing and something else takes over. I have done a LOT of work into when and what makes scenarios change. I can say stops are still necessary. But if a criteria can be established as to what causes the break, then those stops might be closer at some times and farther at others. This is worth looking into.

Scenarios break at G-V peaks. I bring that much here. Before the events.

Second point re inversions: When it breaks it doesn't break randomly. The answer is already in the public domain. But not overtly explained for what it is. Here's a clue. If I had to give up everything but one, I'd keep support and resistance. And I bring that here conventionally in trendlines, and less conventionally via VAP, often both in the same charts. Those charts might have more info in them than everybody gets.

Now I don't, that often, do parallel channels here. That's not because I don't like them They do work in probabilistic fashion. And probabilities are what we trade/invest. The reason I don't post them is because we are lucky to have other regular contributors to Setup who do excellent channel study posts. They deserve due kudos for great work in that department. I hope my non coverage of what they do is seen for what it is, recognition that they do it very well indeed in my opinion. You know who you are! Thanks.

@greatwarden: I hope this reply is helpful.

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Since I brought up the year seven ...

Since I brought up the year seven ...

... and it's featured in W D Gann's writings ...

Here is Olga Morales with her abbreviated video take on the #7 matter, and things astrological related to it. Which is kinda appropriate since Gann brought astrology into his market trades in esoteric ways that are still debated, and also rebutted hotly to this day.

I don't rebut those techniques, but I know well that the mere idea can do peoples' brains in!

If two bluebottles walking up the wall worked, and looked like it would continue working, after doing careful tests over a long enough period, I'd be like, "Hey, that's handy!" Traders can be that way.

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Thanks AM

For your time and insight. At least in your charts you are posting alternate scenarios ( inversions ).
As for the year seven and current modern "alchemists" progress compared to previous years -

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/08/djia-daily-pattern-during-years-ending.html

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Is it safe to say that we

Is it safe to say that we just saw a 3 dollar higher monthly low in gold? Possibly the interim low from last week was a failure retest of the previous week's low, conferring greater seniority on the 27th,  and the lower monthly range is now horizontal plus three bucks a month.

That's a pretty finely balanced market. Naturally, I will be watching carefully how the VAP is filling up.

Just curious: Did anybody here ever trade using Market Profile back when it was all the rage? I still have Mind Over Markets by Dalton, Jones & Dalton sitting on the shelf beside my desk. I read up on it back then and thought it was a great idea. Only I compared it to Point & Figure used intraday and decided it might not be such a new different thing as everybody was saying. The idea of using snapshots of time was tempting. But Point & Figure uses snapshots of activity instead, and I went down that route with my study time. I often wondered what it would be to use Market Profile with momentum increments instead of time increments.

The second P&F book I ever read was A W Cohen's skinny paperback classic. Three Point Reversal Method of Point & Figure Stock Market Trading, from way back in 1968! My copy is the 1987 edition, also within an arm's reach of where I sit. The first was Murphys's TA tome which has a chapter devoted to P&F.

Point & Figure is considered so old a method not many new trader-kids on the block know how it works, just that the charts look strange with naughts and crosses in odd looking columns instead of the more familiar price bars or candles! But using activity as the horizontal axis has certain advantages, when you learn what they are.

I got a copy of a new book on P&F. It's 21st Century Point and Figure: New and Advanced Techniques for Using Point and Figure Charts by Jeremy Du Plessis. Jeremy used to come over to us in Dublin to do occasional talks for the Irish technical analysis society back in the day. We always asked him to cover P&F. He produced a great piece of charting software that could do a few special P&F and cycle analysis tricks and was a source of innovative ideas on an old method. I haven't seen him in recent years and following a phone chat a year or more ago understand he is now retired.

I skimmed it a few months ago. Diarised to come back. Reading it end to end carefully now. I'll post a review of the book sometime next week when I've had time to digest the contents. The subject matter is slightly off mainstream but elaborates on an effective methodology.

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Ronnie Fattal's latest

Ronnie Fattal's latest Elliott counts on the PM sector:

His big picture is now really bearish, though not immediately so. In some cases he "wants" a sideways rally in others an upwards swing to complete the rally.

This is now in synch with my oft explained longer term bear final stage decline scenario. Provided it continues that way of course.

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Dec Gold daily

The cmegroup bulletin of 8/25/17 shows the low of that day for Dec gold to be 1278.50 and not what is shown on their daily chart for Dec gold.  A little more poking around in the bulletins shows the lows and highs of many contracts adjusted each day from prior "prints."  The meaning of the designation "A" after the price is uncertain although many lows and highs in these bulletins have this designation as well.

When the 1278.50 low is used, the 0-y line becomes perfectly mpl as it just touches the pivot low of Sep 18 (at the green dot).  The action line (not drawn) is also multipivot; so with such a combination it is no surprise that price turned at the (newly drawn) crossing of R1 with the ML.  Previously (with the uncorrected 8/25 low) the r1/ML cross came two days earlier.  Chart here.

So this is now very clean.

When price turns at a reaction line, it is very likely to reach the next one of the same derivation, especially if price moves beyond the half-way point to the next line, which happened with gold's Friday settlement.

If the bears are serious they will/must try to break the monthly 2P line at some point.  

The major line confluence is on 11/14-15.  The ML x M2P occurs on Weds 11/15, a little below r2.  So far the turn at r1 has not been violated by a close below the low of 1262.80, and prices should not get below this low for much time at all if the trend is to turn up and not seriously weaken.  

So especially if price is not rallying into early next week but staying more or less sideways, I am alert to a "heavy handed" intraday violation of the low (down to the ML x M2P value of ~1257.50, or lower) that I hope attracts serious buying--enough to give us a close above r2 and a probable major pivot low.  Closing above 1262.80 would be even more promising for a good rally continuing into December.

If there is no attempted breakdown, price will probably meander over to r2 where it will find support for a rally.  It could be very strong from there.  This would mean the turn near r1 was the major pivot low after all.  This could have seriously bullish implications, as the major pivot low at r1 typically means the prior extreme will be reached (and maybe exceeded).

So far the market is finding support in the 62%R region of the July-Sep rally (no closes below 1269).  There are other minor Fibonacci support levels close to the major line confluence.  At this point I can find no other convincing minor pivot lines/structures internal to the decline from Sep 8 that join the confluence, but I'm watching.

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A must read

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/americas-stagflation

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What did 6 weeks of extreme G-V initiate?

The take the party back from it's corrupt inept greedy owners meme, eg as in 5-Star in Italy, was born in the US left and now spreads to the right.

argentus maximus wrote:
November 3, 2017 - 10:13pm  

... Also, the US democrat party seems to have finally and belatedly reached the conclusion that either the embedded Clinton controls must go or it will disappear instead. Political class vs oligarch class - a power contest decision, and a substantial decision at that. ...

Cernovich puts it into words that the party faithful will understand.

So .. when the political crowd are beating on the doors of the inner sanctums, of both left and right (which could conceivably be a single umbrella entity) what will be the response from within? The usual crowd manipulation?

Trump found it just so easy to play the patriotism card when confronted with embarrassing kneeling celebrity athletes. He rang the stars and stripes bell and the pavlovian trained crowd jumped to his cause. It just took a few tweets and they did his work for him.

"Who let the dogs out?" is a question that almost always gives a telling answer for those who ask it.

So, the oligarch class own the parties, the military agencies play their game too, and the political skivvy class that administer the parties manage the scam and make a fine living for themselves while skinning the people on behalf of their bosses. The game is tried, tested, and has worked for many decades.

But the people will decide soon to come and take their game back.

Mind wars already playing will escalate. The heat will come on the leaders of common man. False Pied Piper-esque leaders are about to be created and unleashed to deflect crowd energy into less harmful directions, like against enemies of these various elites. Lot's of patriotic pavlovian crowd-bells are due to be rung as this progresses. Religions will join in the fray acting for benefit of their earth-based economic masters. Which is definitely not acting in the interests of the common people living within their influence. I have observed high level meetings take place between supposedly competitive or oppositional religious leaders in recent times. It's happening. The pan religious agreement is probably in place.

What will this do for or against faith in political institutions? And what will it do for confidence in things financial like sovereign bond markets? Which depend on confidence in the solidity and permanence of political and national institutions.

The next financial, probably forex, could be bonds, crisis has begun. It won't be visible for a while. But it's on the way.

Perennially wrong doomsaying analysts will have their infrequent good forecast when it comes, the mainstream will mislead as they always do until the last moment then reverse claiming they were right all along as they always do. Good analysts will probably begin to produce work that falls roughly inline with this post's content as time passes and reality gradually emerges from the fog.

The protesting crowds are so incredibly far behind where the power contest currently is that watching their swings to follow it will be a wonderful case study in mass conversational and covert hypnosis, or persuasion as it is now called, and its efficacy. All life-vision-creating public information ("Let me draw you a picture" or "Look at this illustration", or "I have a dream .." will be suspect until consciously checked and cleared.

Many may become drafted by circumstance (or legislated) into institutions with no voluntary exit door. It's a chancy thing to allow during periods such as this, I mean becoming a tool or asset within a command structure where your pain or loss can result in a reward, promotion or monetary gain for unknown others above you in the hierarchy of that institution.

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