Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 1:35pm
pailin
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Congratulations Lemming

Congratulations Lemming :)

EURO has me buggered too, have a few small invoices due and now POP! Bah :(

Not a big thing (the move is costing me -literally- four or five dollars!) but it's the principal of the thing...see I'm not supposed to ever buy EUR on the uptick. That goes against all the basic laws of Nature. Durn it :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 8:31pm
Cú Chulainn
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Martin Armstrong's movie

has anyone paid to view the Forecaster online and is it worthwhile?

i gather Armstrong is being less public about his forecasts--does anyone pay for his service? any recommendations?

thanks Pailin for this oasis of sanity

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 1:49am (Reply to #39968)
z28
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Movie

I saw the movie at the first part of April at a movie house in Pasadena Ca. It was mostly about his problems with the law and did not cover much about the method of his forecasts. I don't pay for his service ,I just read the blog.I paid $5 to see the movie because I am old and there were more people than I thought would be there on Wednesday afternoon.

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 2:05pm
Urban Roman
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Copper rising

Just watching the metals on the finviz heat-map, and while most of them are just going sideways, or down, copper has been rising sharply the last couple days.

Does anyone here know why?

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 3:50pm
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Urban Roman- re:copper

Within an article at ZH (so take it as you will) I read that the Chinese Central Bank has recently been jawboning the potential for more QE sometime soon, and that if true this would translate directly to a renewed new construction market there (which had previously been the biggest market for copper in the world). So with that possibility out there, copper has gotten some new spec money flowing in. No idea if the Chinese cb will actually do this, or is just talking, but the recent bid under copper is pretty clear.

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 2:09am
csquared13
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pretty much cleared sneaker

pretty much cleared sneaker inventory just one pair left. 8.5% profit when all said and done. taking money and running. trying my best to be ready for whatever opportunities present themself. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Mon, May 4, 2015 - 8:26am
pailin
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inventory management

Yep that's the play, when margins compress, reduce inventory (and look for other richer opportunities).

Now I just need to follow my own advice. Inventory coming in much faster than going out, margins...really good, I guess (still 100% on avg hold 1 year or less) but having to hold longer and not as rich as years past, could be beginning of long term downtrend? (aka...deflation, in spite of capital flight out of EU??)

Anybody keeping up with Armstrong's blog? Recent post on holding physical cash and gold being the same thing was pretty interesting...both are insurance against pure e-money and bank disruptions, failures...but high-risk against (potential, likely?) cashless legislation. Of course in my own world, artwork accomplishes the same thing, but less liquid (and higher, much higher reward...so far :) I'm probably way too concentrated in physical (of all types). Sigh...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, May 5, 2015 - 9:56am
JAL
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New Maund (from yesterday)...

Thu, May 7, 2015 - 9:07am
JAL
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Since it's the UK election today...

Thought some of you guys might appreciate this!

Video unavailable

As you might have guessed I'm taking everything extremely seriously.

Thu, May 7, 2015 - 10:40am
JAL
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Was just about to short GBP/USD...

But IG's changed the minimum guaranteed stop distance to 450 pips!!!angry

For reference on EUR/USD it's 10...

45x increase in the minimum stop distance seems a tad high but WTFDIK?

Way too expensive for me to do what I want with options so i'm stuck on the sidelines.

EDIT:

Ok it's not that much more expensive with options but they're not 24Hr...

And I'm not dead keen on the greeks right now!wink

GLTA!!!

Thu, May 7, 2015 - 11:18am
JAL
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Sod it... Lemmings Long 22 May GBPUSD 15150 Puts (spreadbet!)

Yeah... I know.

Still don't understand how the Tories stay in power, had it explained to me but it sounds pretty fragile.

Labour, SNP and Lib Dems still seems most likely to me.

Dollar rally possible...

All I'm looking for is a wobble and it looks like IG's scared.

Plan?

Hopefully I'll be out of this before the greeks become an issue.

EDIT:

It turns out these options are 24Hr...

(Sorry, used to comex ones - my bad.)

Thu, May 7, 2015 - 11:48am
JAL
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Anyone else noticed the new-look Finviz?

https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Took a while to get used to but now it's growing on me.

Sat, May 9, 2015 - 10:00am
Urban Roman
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Well, it clinked nicely.

But it was gone from my pocket on Thursday. So I'm going to stop clinking it. 

Found in the sofa cushions (whew) ... just in time for a boating accident :-)

Tue, May 12, 2015 - 11:02am
csquared13
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https://fredblog.stlouisfed.o

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/05/labor-force-participation-is-a-t...

Saw this and was reminded of a discussion that was had here..IIRC, P was talking about global supply/demand dynamics of labor/laborers. 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, May 13, 2015 - 8:50am
madcow
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Nintendo is making a nice run

Nintendo is making a nice run (or was, havnt looked today). Timed that one pretty good myself minus that not putting enough dosh into it. >:o

Wed, May 13, 2015 - 9:22am
uki
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seasonals

Just a thought for what is worth. We had seasonal high in gold too early this year, with the peak dating to the end of January. Still too early to call, but how do you see the possibility of the seasonal low being already in (at the end of March), again ahead of schedule?

Wed, May 13, 2015 - 1:35pm (Reply to #39982)
pailin
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uki wrote: ...but how do you

uki wrote:

...but how do you see the possibility of the seasonal low being already in (at the end of March), again ahead of schedule?

When I talk seasonals, it's really silver. Gold at GSR above 50 is useless to me (except to swap for silver :) So my comments here have to be tempered against that, and also that gold has a slightly different seasonal bias (as identified by Dmitri Speck) than silver.

According to this chart, high gold in January and then again in May is not uncommon, with bottoming only coinciding with silver mid/late June and then a run back up (kinda/sorta) into year end. Make of that what you will, I'm still only interested in silver :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, May 18, 2015 - 5:42am
pailin
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short

Silver is probably a short above 18 (mabye 18.30?) Will need to, even though my willpower to do so is low. Stop would be 18.75(ish). FWIW Armstrong is calling for solid gold this summer and weakness in the fall. We'll see...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, May 19, 2015 - 11:42am
Urban Roman
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Looks like it's not gonna hit

Looks like it's not gonna hit 18.50 at this point in time ..

Wed, May 20, 2015 - 2:52am
csquared13
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Next high = lower or higher?

Next high = lower or higher? Lower means the May seasonal high has been put in? 

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota

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