The setup for the big trade

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Sat, May 2, 2015 - 1:12pm
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I just watched Chris Duane's

I just watched Chris Duane's latest Youtube video clip.

I have to say that he really uses imagery incredibly effectively. I admire the care with which he makes his choice of background to play the emotions of viewers while he narrates/speaks his piece in the segments. A truly good salesman. And his rounds do look so nice. They do have such interesting sex appeal + revolutionary fervour+ rugged independent + old time honest values style appeal. I pondered a little about how his sales compared between eg the flyover states vs the coastal city sales zones. Ah those reds and blues are never far away. What would Duane produce from his creative imagination to sell to folks in expensive clothes on Wall St I wonder?

It's a pity so many have lost so much after buying into his rise-like-a-phoenix-from-the-ashes-of-collapse" meme. Will they eventually be bailed out by price, I hope so! But this trial by the bear came as a result of buying before silver returned towards long term support. A technical mistake.

And that is of course the big question now. Support! How near? How strong?

I have my own views on this, but they are just thoughts, views, ideas in my head. Unless or until they also become ideas in many other peoples' heads my ideas of where support lies will be just pixiedust. However support is real, though based upon ideas, it is real, and whe price makes contact with support buyers emerge from the shadows to do battle.

We all need to look carefully at the various contenders among the different possible support levels for line-in-the-sand status and subsequent posterity.

That's because price is getting ready to move, I mean reasonably soon, and when it does it would be a good thing for precious metal longs that price should have very strong support under it, so that beginning move be directed away from downwards. It's not a sure thing at all. There is room for much discussion on this if people want to take it further, and nobody has all the answers so a debate on this eventually to be decided by the price of gold would be interesting imo.

If traders could put the hourly charts away for a bit and peer into some daily, weekly and monthlies and express their opinion on this I am all ears.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, May 3, 2015 - 11:13am (Reply to #7461)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: It

argentus maximus wrote:

It reminded me that at the time I did that one I also considered the possibility of a follow up article in which I could recommend and give a one sentence review of what might be called "the next level above" those sources already in the blog.

Two points are relevant as to whether I do that. First is there actually a desire among readers for what might be a very eclectic, and in ways obscure second reading list? I appreciate that the majority of the books in the first one are quite heavyweight in time required and we all have our daily lives to get on with.

If interested let me know by private message, or external email if no PM access, please.

My initial thought was "Oh no not more books to read and more info to digest, I have only just begun with the first set", but then something happened today. If AM wants to provide new info your initial thought would always be, yes please smiley

Sun, May 3, 2015 - 11:42am (Reply to #7472)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: And

argentus maximus wrote:

And that is of course the big question now. Support! How near? How strong?

I have my own views on this, but they are just thoughts, views, ideas in my head. Unless or until they also become ideas in many other peoples' heads my ideas of where support lies will be just pixiedust. However support is real, though based upon ideas, it is real, and whe price makes contact with support buyers emerge from the shadows to do battle.

We all need to look carefully at the various contenders among the different possible support levels for line-in-the-sand status and subsequent posterity.

That's because price is getting ready to move, I mean reasonably soon, and when it does it would be a good thing for precious metal longs that price should have very strong support under it, so that beginning move be directed away from downwards. It's not a sure thing at all. There is room for much discussion on this if people want to take it further, and nobody has all the answers so a debate on this eventually to be decided by the price of gold would be interesting imo.

If traders could put the hourly charts away for a bit and peer into some daily, weekly and monthlies and express their opinion on this I am all ears.

Again my initial thought was "No chance AM, you broke my interest for PM for the next 12 months", by this chart:

You pointed out that this was not a precision work, but I have the last roadmap in fresh memory and it was pretty darn good, nailing the low in Nov, 14 months in advance. Ok I've got a spare hour or two so I will try ...

Sun, May 3, 2015 - 1:53pm
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armstrong saying GOTS

Australia First to Introduce a Compulsory Tax on Money Itself

Posted on May 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

Abbott-Tony

The reason I moved the Solution Conference forward was due to the fact that all my sources behind the curtain were screaming from the four corners of the world that the new age of Economic Totalitarianism is upon us all. Australia will be the first to introduce a compulsory tax on savings. This is the ultimate Marxist state for now anyone with spare cash is the enemy of the Conservative Tony Abbott government. What I laid out at the Solution Conference is the ONLY way out of this nightmare. It is time for people to start spreading the word and get behind changing the game plan while we still have a game in play. We have to stop this confiscation of all wealth and the continual borrowing and taxation. This will lead to the total destruction of Western culture for we are plagued by power hungry insane politicians who cannot see past their nose.

The new compulsory control is already provided for in the 2015 Australian budget. So that everyone who has any savings must pay taxes on on their savings. The measure is expected to serve as a global test balloon for Europe and North America will watch the outcome in Australia. If there will be no massive resistance of Australian savers, the rest of the world should expect this outright confiscation very rapidly.

Tony Abbot has proven to be a real Marxist. He is taking the Australian people into the economic abyss from which only war and bloodshed can emerge. This is really Atlas Shrugged in high gear. The Abbot Government will introduce its draft budget for 2015 tax on savings and it will to announce this measure before the formal decision on the budget.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that it was now all about to relieve families and small businesses. For this, the new tax is to be used. The problem is clear. There will be no reduction in taxes for these people, it will only be more money in the pocket of corrupt and seriously deranged politicians who are destroying the western civilization in the blink of an eye.

Abbott also said there would be some hard decisions in the new budget because this was inevitable. For the banks, the government’s plans are anything but good news. Abbott’s anti-capitalism view will put him up there with Lenin no doubt when history is allowed to be written honestly perhaps in a hundred years or some. This decision of a tax on savings would seriously harm the government and if there are any smart Australians, it should now be a race to get the hell out of the banks. The banks should see a massive withdraw. Take you money and buy tangible assets even gold, but you just cannot store it in a bank. Movable assets will be the key and buying equities in the USA may be the only real game in town to protect money.

It is hard to fathom how Australian banks will attract or hold on to deposits in this newAbbott-style of Economic Totalitarianism. The opposition is of course outraged by the decision of the Abbott Conservative government. This is not a labour government demonstrating what I have said – economically there is no difference between left and right – just hand them the money.

IMF Debt

The introduction of this tax on money in Australia led by Tony Abbott is the trial balloon for the global economy. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde has led the battle to impose French socialism/communism upon the entire world. I have warned that she is the most dangerous woman on the planet. Do not forget that it was the French elite who sold the idea of communism to Marx – not the other way around. Now the French elite have control of the IMF and they have persuaded all other global financial institutions to also require such a compulsory levy for several years because they see it as the only way to resolve the debt crisis – just confiscate the people’s money. In the wake of the G20 discussions such measures are usually prepared and coordinated. The public knows about it only when there are hardly any ways to prevent the action and mainstream press sell the people down the river cheering it all the way.

You better wake up before the coffin is nailed shut.

Sun, May 3, 2015 - 1:56pm
Oboma
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Take you money and buy

Take you money and buy tangible assets even gold, but you just cannot store it in a bank. Movable assets will be the key and buying equities in the USA may be the only real game in town to protect money.

Sun, May 3, 2015 - 2:17pm
Solsson
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Gann Style

Ok, here we go. I am more interested in shorting the stock market at the moment, so I thought it was a good idea to read about HSH formations in "Technical analysis of stock trends". After half an hour I found, by accident, a chart that reminded me of the gold chart, it was a chart from "Arkansas best" from -87, a chapter called "Corrective trends: the fan principle". Aha, I read a book last week called Gann Simplified, a very easy read and I started at the last chapter, reading backwards, there was a chapter about Gann fan lines. When I found the chapter and the chart mentioned earlier I was more than a little bit exited and curious.

From the book:

"However, and this is of considerable practical importance, the very last intermediate downswing in a major bear market, that is, the last primary move that leads to the final, long-term bottom, is usually cleaner, more regular, and less precipitous - in other words, it is a more nearly normal trend of the sort we expect to find in most intermediate advances in a bull market (except that it slants down instead of up). This interesting habit is, as we said, of practical importance. Knowing it, we have an additional and very useful clue to the end of a bear market"

Just brilliant, and here is another one:

"When, after a major bear trend has proceeded fore some time and distance, and has experienced at least one panic sell off, it then goes off in another but less active and more orderly decline, and this decline develops and follows a good trendline. Watch it closely. If this intermediate holds to its steady and not too step downward course - if its trendline is contacted several times by minor rallies - if it produces a fairly consistent channel, and prices do not "fall out of bed" down through its parallel return line, then the eventual upside penetration of this trendline may well signal a Major Turn, that is, the inception of a new Bull Market."

TechAnalysisStockTrends talks about a three line fan line to analyze late corrective trends, so I tried to make a fan line chart, the Gann way:

The 1x1 is time and price equal square at 45 degrees decline. I've not added the steepest one 1x2, but the book says the most important area is between 1x1 and 1x2. We've broken out from the 2x1 and crawling above it, that's good news I suppose.

Maybe my lines is not that exact, but they fit the chart trend quite well. To sum it up, so yeah things do look good for gold walking forward yes

Edit note:
A lot of ultra bearish folks out there, a lot of self proclaimed gold bear market "experts" saying we must see a total capitulation to $700-1000 before a new bull, and then you read a book from 1948 that says quite the opposite, wow! Thank you again for your valuable efforts here AM, you are one of a kind ! And the other "experts" out there, not going to mention names, can go *** themselves.

Sun, May 3, 2015 - 8:08pm
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June gold; a pattern (minimally) completed

June gold has formed a relatively rare "expanded pivot" pattern in a corrective mode above the Babson reaction line shown on the chart. 

The "expanded pivot" pattern is typically a prelude to a sharp move in the opposite direction. Price at pivot 5 often reaches the 1-3 2p line, as it did here on Friday. So it is minimally complete already, but of course can drop further and lower than the 1-3 line.

So we have an interesting and potentially strongly bullish pattern setup between these two factors: the "ep" pattern; and its completion (so far) above the reaction line shown (closes staying above this reaction line is bullish). Usually, prices do reach the reaction line before going higher, but sometimes price touches the reaction line at a higher pivot. To remain bullish, closing prices need to stay above the reaction line until the low pivot seems to be in place; or if we get a pivot up without reaching the reaction line, then closes need to stay above the low of the correction (which currently is at pivot 5). Hope that's clearer than mud...

We'll see if we are soon to get a major pivot higher. So far, looks bullish to me.

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 2:43am (Reply to #7461)
flyinkel
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AM

Still working my way through the first batch. Would gladly take "the NEXT level" list, but won't be there for a while. Real learning takes time, and just when you think you have it, you "back practice" and realize it's better to look at everything again.

flyinkel
Mon, May 4, 2015 - 2:44am (Reply to #7461)
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Dup

Sorry. Fat fingers.

flyinkel
Mon, May 4, 2015 - 6:49am
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Nice job Solsson with those

Nice job Solsson with those Gann fanlines! Keep it up and it will be a great help.

Pete's chart is so similar to one of mine that I had to post.

Differences: mine is on weekly timeframe for this information, and I used fans (blue) with parallels (pink) where Pete used all parallels to figure out the same support & resistance. Not implying one is better than the other in the slightest.

There is also an interesting rising one - which price is south of at the moment, and which needs to be retaken to provoke some bearish desertion. But let's not forget price is below it at the moment.

There are four slopes of market, not three. The horizontal (in gray dots grid) can go unnoticed, but it important.

For non chartists: think in terms of a rabbit (price) moving forwards and retreating while crossing the lanes in motorway traffic, lines gained vs lines lost, change in phase, frequency of getting forced back vs advancing.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, May 4, 2015 - 9:28am
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Re: longer term charts

AM asked above "If traders could put the hourly charts away for a bit and peer into some daily, weekly and monthlies and express their opinion on this I am all ears." My opinion is worth zilch, but I noticed this sometime back and thought it appropriate to share given AM's invitation.

As a simple longer term swing trade "buy or sell" indicator for gold, it is hard to beat the record of MACD over the last ten years. This is a monthly chart showing periods where MACD (standard 12, 26, 9 settings) was either positive (green over blue) or negative (blue over green). It is obviously a bit sloppy and crude at turns, but it has sure identified the trend, and trend changes, nicely. Make of it what you will.

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 10:19am
Safety Dan
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Eric De Groot Insights - Longer Term Gold Charts

Hope this helps with some longer term charts AM. Any thoughts on these charts and his insight? 

https://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2015/05/042815-review-of-gold.html

The professional investors must profit by anticipating future trends and events rather than chasing old news. This is done by following the invisible hand or message of the market. That message, the simultaneous study of the the cycle of accumulation and distribution (trend)the distribution, movement, and participation of leverage (leverage), time/cycles, and human behavior void of opinions is defined below: 

Gold remains in cause within broader mark down phase. 

GLD.PNG

COT%2BF%26O%2BGold%2BDI.PNG

COT%2BF%26O%2BGold%2BLO.PNG

COT%2BF%26O%2BGold%2BSeas.PNG

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 2:11pm
thedukes
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Long term monthly

si-w-cyc-23042015.png

After AM posted this projection I wanted to see how close this was to a long term monthly projection going back to 1999 or to 2001 using an abc method with fibonacci.

Option 1

9-99 $255 a point. 3-08 $1032 b point (777 range). 10-08 $682 c point. $682 +$777 =$1459 or 1:1 d point.

End of trend and immediate pullback would encompass a 1.625 fib move from the low of $682 + ($777 x 1.625) = $1944.

Timeframe 12 years or 144 months. A 50% pullback would equal 72 months or 6 years from 9/2011 =9/ 2017.

Option 2

4-01 $257 a point. 3-08 $1032 b point (775 range). 10-08 $682 c point. $682 + $775 =$$1457 or 1:1 d point.

End of trend and immediate pullback would encompass a 1.625 fib move from the low of $682 + ($775 x 1.625) = $1941.

Timeframe 10 years 5 months or 125 months. A 50% pullback would equal 62.5 months from 9/2011 = 11/ 2016.

I still classify this as a bull market with a long consolidation after using either the monthly up move of 12 months or the 10.5 move up from above. Hitting the 1.625 fib mark is a real killer during the consolidation periods and can prolong timeframes beyond 50% in some cases. We are hitting critical support areas from 12/2009. If they give way $1032 is the next very solid support level from 3/08.

Longer term I am extremely bullish but in the consolidation phase the length of this timeframe is so difficult to identify. I don't post much but I appreciate AM's work and wanted to share this because it is close to the projections that he shared for all to see.

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 3:36pm
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IMO

None of these charts are going to matter when the reset comes in force. Not AM, not Turds, not etc. etc. They are good forecasting the short term. There are no longer term charts for PMs. So forecasting silver at $17 or $50 2-4 years out is ridiculous. Just my opinion only. Take it for whatever.

Mon, May 4, 2015 - 11:26pm
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Weekly chart of GLD

Here's my attempt to see some of the reactions in GLD as a basis for gold using a Gann square. Notice how the arcs serve as resistance/support for the GLD price at certain stages in the market from 2011-now. I just discovered this tool and will be researching it some more as I learn to apply it better. Anyone interested in someone who seems to have devoted his entire method of trading to this, check out Gunner24.com. I don't use his product, but this seems the same thing for free from Tradingview.com. We may be encountering the next arc by late June and hopefully we ride it up as we do.

Banman17

Tue, May 5, 2015 - 4:27am
erewenguy
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monthly GLD

For the GLD monthly chart -

From the Nov 2008 low to the Sept 2011 high, we approached the 62% fib retracement in June and December 2013. There has been pressure to push price lower in the past 7 months, but price keeps bobbing back up above that retracement level.

It's a bit ironic that the inverse of the "golden mean" would be the most sticky level for the GLD chart.

It would take a 76% retracement of the 2008-2011 move to push price back to $1003.

Tue, May 5, 2015 - 8:20am
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From Martin Armstrong's

From Martin Armstrong's latest blog entry. Good question and interesting answer. I'm only posting part of the answer.

$5,000 is the maximum possible target for gold. It only becomes possible with a collapse in the confidence of government. First, the dollar must rise, and that will keep pressure on gold. This is part of the process in setting the stage for a change in the monetary system as part of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Gold has followed most commodities and it has not broken out, nor has it even kept pace with inflation. You would have been far better off buying stock in 1980 and selling the gold. You would have made a fortune. Then buy gold when it finally cracks. Right now, you are better off with $1200 in cash than $1200 worth of gold.

Two assumptions reading this. Any comments on whether my assumptions seem valid?

1.) He is not long, he's not buying, he is waiting for a stated event - collapse in confidence in government. Is a collapse an event or a process that is under way? He is holding fiat in a bank despite all his posts they are going to steal your money? He means collapse in confidence in the dollar?

2.) $5000 is the maximum possible target. I assume he like AM has many charts well into the future looking at possibities? Is it possible at this juncture to have that much certainty that I should accept some number, without any support with charts (don't expect him to give it to me for free)

No correlations given. Bond rates, currency rates, changes inflation, type of newsflow etc....

I am not saying he is right and I'm not saying he is wrong. But it seems to me he tacitly implying day to day watching gold prices is useless UNTIL some unknown time in the future? 

I like Armstrong but this commentary gives me pause and more questions than answers.

Tue, May 5, 2015 - 9:06am
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Armstrong

Just a quick comment on one portion, and that is to say that when Armstrong states "You would have been far better off buying stock in 1980 and selling the gold. You would have made a fortune" this is a red flag for me. He is deliberately cherry-picking the timeframe to give as gold-negative an example as he possibly can- measuring only from the 1980 blow-off top in gold. 

If he instead chose a smaller 15 year timeframe (2000-present) then S&P up 2.21x, gold up 4.3x. Gold wins. If he chose a longer timeframe of 1970 rather than 1980, S&P up 23x while gold is up 34x. Gold also wins. The only historical comparison that gold would NOT win in the last 50 years is the 1979-1980 top.

Cherry-picking as your example the single most gold-negative year in the last half-century, in terms of comparison to stocks, does not strike me as balanced analysis. As to his other predictions, I would not venture to say.

Tue, May 5, 2015 - 9:28am
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Commodity metals

I'm only linking the aluminum charts here, but on the left side of the page, there are links for historical (not the live) charts for Al, Cu, Pb, Ni, and Zn. If you look at the 6 and 12 month charts, all the commodity metals are speaking in unison.

https://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical.html

Tue, May 5, 2015 - 10:10am
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Armstrong

I wonder what the terms of his release were?

He is obviously allowed to criticise governments. From this platform of seeming independence and legitimacy, he can be useful to TPTB.

'Write what you like, but do NOT promote gold.'

GL's point is spot on; keep his beloved cash where, in the same banks which he himself states will steal it? 

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