The setup for the big trade

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UncleFester
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Update

Au price support today near 1275 and 1269.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/QlFQLfer/

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Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

argentus maximus
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@Pete: I'll send you an email

@Pete: I'll send you an email later re the above.

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Pete
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Friday AM gold

It looks like the bulls are turning this challenge of the ORD low successfully higher, based on the 15m chart 2nd H bounce pattern.  But the effort must succeed.  Gotta close the 15m over the green mlh from above.  If so, look for rally to the green ml sloping up in 1290s.

Red flat line is 1282, daily value of MLH from daily M? pivot.  

2nd H bounce pattern fails if #2 low broken.

It would be nice to get a decent close on the daily.

argentus maximus
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This week I reinstated hedges

This week I reinstated hedges against downside loss in long term stock and bond asset holdings bound up in managed funds.

The work's not done. It's a public sentiment reaction thing.

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Solsson
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I am going Conor McGregor on

I am going Conor McGregor on Mr Market here, or at the extending and pretending CB's is a smarter move. Me getting this emotional may indicate that we are getting closer to a turn in miners? Me thinks the SM and tulipCoin needs to go poof before the miners will catch a serious bid.

Common stock is the place to be (or not):

Avoid real assets at all cost (or not?), this is one of Argentus favorite miners:

tulipCoin is going through the roof, but for how long, are we close to 5of5 waves up?

So yes that pretty much explains the situation we are in. I bought into this little producer the day before a -18% drop, my bad ... Swedish/Russian board predators are playing dirty tricks on naive prey like me. Lying and cheating in closed board rooms is smart right. No not in my book...that is a sign of weakness. 

I don't know, mining is tough, one board member forked up 16million Swedish dollars at the new issue of shares during summer. Yesterday his company MANGOLD bought 50% of the volume and selling options that expires next year. Maybe it's a move just to survive. They have closed production for 8months to reconstruct the plant. Nothing of this was mentioned during the summer placement of new cash. I think I will get my money back, but it will take a while.

Thank you Auriant Mining:
https://se.investing.com/equities/auriant-m...-advanced-chart

brokerk22
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COT

The COT totally sucks!  Bankers dug in as deep as ever.  They are never going to let go.  Judging by the number of posts this site is totally dead.  Turd is a good dude but fighting the cabal seems impossible.  Pierre Lasonde doesnt have great predictions either.  Gold only going to be slightly better next year 1300-1400.  If the market goes up 27% and gold goes up only 8% who gives a fuck about gold.  As is the case now.  This is one diabolical son of bitch.  I have spent a lifetime of hours trying to crack it.   But Lasonde also doesnt know if or when China and Russia make a coordinated move to end this scam.  This has gone on longer and further than everyones wildest imaginations.   I hate the injustice and the lies we live.  What can we do!  I am at a loss.  The markets are fake and I am not sure they will ever be real again.  Sighh.....rant off.

full n by
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CRIME

Hello  broker22 and all others ..

I am 75 ,involved in honest business and moral behavior all of my life from a teenager when i started my first business. Started reading Jim Dines way back when... now heavily invested in the PM;s and the miners since about 1999 ? (Brown's bottom) I feel the same way as you have written , All efforts to protect all my loved ones and myself now seems a fool's game ...There seems to be no area of our lives that are untouched by such evil people. I hope I live long enough to see this great crime against so many ,finally come to an end , not a rant,just discouraged..Carry on...

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Solsson wrote: Yes Spartacus

Solsson wrote:

Yes Spartacus Rex and brokerk22 I share your pain and frustration! ...

laugh LOL! 

I am not complaining, far from it.

Rather be buying here than twice as high.

Berserkers er født for stormen!

Skål 

clinking-beer-mugs_1f37b.png

1b98ffd749e1682166577eeee54383d5--ancien

Spartacus Rex
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Dup Delete

Oops

Spartacus Rex
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CRIME (?)

full n by wrote:

Hello  broker22 and all others ..

I am 75 ,involved in honest business and moral behavior all of my life from a teenager when i started my first business. Started reading Jim Dines way back when... now heavily invested in the PM;s and the miners since about 1999 ? (Brown's bottom) I feel the same way as you have written , All efforts to protect all my loved ones and myself now seems a fool's game ...There seems to be no area of our lives that are untouched by such evil people. I hope I live long enough to see this great crime against so many ,finally come to an end , not a rant,just discouraged..Carry on...

Keep the Faith, sailor!

yes

Obviously you too have been around long enough to remember 14 August 1945 as well

as perhaps wise enough to grasp that it has been a downhill slide ever since.

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A little bit of fresh new air

A little bit of fresh new air coming into this thread, welcome with your posts!

That's the spirit, Spartacus. There are much bigger problems in the world than me losing a little bit of cash blush you Norwegians and Danish people still has some pride in your/our culture, but I do not know about Sweden, we've been so brainwashed, fat and lazy over the years ... political correctness is still at extreme levels.

#meToo globalist propaganda anti white male campaign is running at full speed in Sweden. Program leaders, bosses at national television, Sweden democrats got planted with a Trojan horse. Today it's the national football team, accused for sexual harassment, a modern version of witch hunt. People are buying into this 100%. See the elite globalist propaganda works in two ways, the good reason and the real reason.

Greg Hunter is a good guy, I am not really into his religious stuff, however I didn't know he had a talent for sound effects:

Have a nice Sunday!

Pete
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Gold Friday 10.20

Friday was a disappointment to the bulls as Thursday's ORD was almost reversed lower.  This is a battle at the new possible MLH support.  There might be horizontal trading over the next few days in the xyz channel seen on the 60m chart, i.e., there might be a short-term rally back to 1287-88 zoomed ml or 1293-94 fh per the zoom rule where more selling could come in.  The last m3 60m ml was reached in Friday's decline, which is not bullish; neither was it strongly penetrated.  Bulls are not rolling over.  Hungry bears might try to make the most of this weak Friday with strong selling on Sunday's open, keeping the 15m closes under the sh and forcing a break of P2? pivot low.  Bulls need to step up to prevent this immediate scenario. 

60m chart   15m chart

("R9@p1" is code-speak for a minor pivot zoom up or down after a possible major pivot high or low.  WN describes a possible p2 where price has penetrated the MLH but recovered by the close.)

Silver_Surfer
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Solsson wrote: A little bit

Solsson wrote:

A little bit of fresh new air coming into this thread, welcome with your posts!

That's the spirit, Spartacus. There are much bigger problems in the world than me losing a little bit of cash blush you Norwegians and Danish people still has some pride in your/our culture, but I do not know about Sweden, we've been so brainwashed, fat and lazy over the years ... political correctness is still at extreme levels.

#meToo globalist propaganda anti white male campaign is running at full speed in Sweden. Program leaders, bosses at national television, Sweden democrats got planted with a Trojan horse. Today it's the national football team, accused for sexual harassment, a modern version of witch hunt. People are buying into this 100%. See the elite globalist propaganda works in two ways, the good reason and the real reason.

Greg Hunter is a good guy, I am not really into his religious stuff, however I didn't know he had a talent for sound effects:

Have a nice Sunday!

Sweden is going through a bit of a thought time at the moment. Be safe and pay attention to AM's GV dates. With the Nord Stream decision coming up I wouldn't be surprised if we see more terror around the corner from you.

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Looking ahead

If the 0-Y line shown here in $gold breaks, R1 becomes the primary target.

It is very regular for a C wave to reach the reaction lines drawn from the pivots in a B wave.  I only put in R1 for obvious reasons.

If the 0-y line breaks, I hope all here will consider and implement a hedge for their gold holdings.  Seriously.

Then perhaps the complaining about what is will settle down.

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Ok, gap closed at 1283, how

Ok, gap closed at 1283, how about this childish roadmap for Gold. A Trinity, a three cycle tic since the 2015 low, a very plausible forecast imo wink

argentus maximus
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Weekly GLD Projection update:

Cycles in gold have a lot of externals to accommodate into their structure. It's always possible that the external events, a war here, a coup there, this bribe, that corruption, the other election upset, that bank going bust in that other place, the appointment of central bank heads,  ... it's possible that these externals themselves might be cyclical, or quasi cyclical.

This is a medium term timeframe, not long term or short term.

Just in case you're interested, this runs pretty well with Solsson's post above.

Nobody can forecast the future, that's not possible with precision. Big events have an internal momentum however, and when in motion don't stop easily or quickly without enormous energy, cost, or power expenditure. Nobody wants to waste any of those things! This projection is a hypothesis based on the future being created by similar events and people as the past was. In other words a probabilistically calculated guess.

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Dec Gold Tuesday

The Willie Nelson pattern (seen on the daily chart) has a unique characteristic.  The change in trend implied by the WN is formally negated when there is a daily close beyond the extreme of the WN day.  (It is the formal stop (along with any value beyond the p0), but it's not usually practical for trading as too much risk is involved in most cases.)  Such a close (either settlement or EOD close) has not yet been made under the WN 1277.60 low.  But, when the 2P line (same as the modified Schiff MLH) is violated by a full tick, the WN pattern is more or less bound to fail; the implied change in trend is negated.  That has happened this evening.  This is not a rule, but rather a strong guideline.

In other words, Dec Gold will probably either close under 1277.60 (the WN low) or trade below 1262.80 (p0) before it might reach 1308.40 (for a possible major pivot top).  In other words, by trading under the 2P line tonight, gold will probably trade at 1262.80 again before 1308.40.

Gold is weak.  Having crossed the 2p line, price is more vulnerable to the downside than Monday.

Tuesday's high was made in the third hour of the trading session (60m chart here) at/near the confluence of the old 60m uh, the 62%r of the m3 swing, the daily MLH (once support, now resistance), and the daily chart 0-2 dtl.   There were several later opportunities to trade the possible session high as price returned to the uh over the following hours.  From the session high there was 92% odds for at least a $10 move lower.  

The 15m chart shows today's impulse lower.  As price neared oversold after 5 larger 15m pivots, a short-covering rally ensued.  As soon as price closed over the 0-4 line on the 15m chart, there was a sudden rush to cover shorts, which moved price rapidly to the Babson 0-y r1 line where it made high tick.  This was near the old 60m uh/sh, the line where the session's high was made in the early trading.  This was indeed a perfect time to sell the market as stopping at r1 promised a new low to be made, which was fulfilled this evening.

Daily chart resistance is at 1281.30-.50 (the m0 tops downtrend line).  Daily support is at the daily 2p line.  The daily trend is down.

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Dec Gold 60m Weds

Price found support near the daily 2p line (at 1273.6), and rallied up to the m0 pivot downtrend line.  On the 60m chart, price remained upward (breaking the 0-y line) and it looks poised to rally to the r1 line where it could turn down again.  A turn there would suggest Wednesday's low will be touched, maybe exceeded, before possible further upside.  

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oops, my bad

I left out something important in the last post.  There are two lines to consider as marking the possible end of the correction when using the 0-y center line tech.

Here's another example.

Today DX took out the prior possible major pivot top made Oct 6 with room to move to higher resistance areas.  This puts additional pressure on gold, which appears to have an appointment soon with the key monthly trendline support for Dec Gold. 

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Heads up for Dec Gold

For Friday 10/27:  Daily Dec gold shows a very close confluence of the major monthly 2P line, the latest minor (min-2) ml, and two Fibonacci resistance levels, one major and one minor.

The 2P line is at 1250.9
The min-2 ml is at 1251.2
The major 50%R is at 1251.0
The minor 127%exr is at 1250.5.

A break of the prior minor swing low of 1262.80 could easily bring prices down to this confluence.

On the daily min-2 pivot level, price is moving to a further 5th pivot with a probable awi in place (the 1308.40 high).  This often means a major pivot is due.  This would still be an inside major, i.e. a retracement of the prior swing up.  Daily min-2 pivot patterns are far more reliable as trend indicators than patterns of smaller size pivots.

Monday and Tuesday similarly present good bottoming confluences; r2 of the prior rally comes closer into the picture.

An alternate view of the situation is here, with the potential for a "not-not" pattern low, wherein both ml and far h as shown are touched, but the close is above both.  This implies a rebound from 1251.2 or lower to a close at 1260.2 or better.  This pattern is used for retracements.

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