The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Apr 29, 2015 - 12:25pm (Reply to #7451)
JAL
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Might I chime in for a moment...

I found Gold Dog's stuff interesting and trying to decipher his strategy pretty constructive.yes

Demanding to see other traders' thought processes up front...

(Well it's taking the piss a bit 'innit!)

Take what you're given and be grateful, it didn't cost you a penny!!!angry

(There's a reason he got 9+ hat tips...wink)

Wed, Apr 29, 2015 - 2:39pm
Solsson
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Gold is so yesterdays news

I am trying to short stockmarkets at the moment, the Swedish OMX took a big hit yesterday and another one today. I chickened out on my bearish bet today.

SHS is a solid and reliable pattern according to investopedia and I have identified three picture perfect patterns in the Swedish OMX:

Third left shoulder is huge, this formation is on steroids, the head formation is a little bit too small. We need another month or a little bit less to build a bigger head. What a setup !

Wed, Apr 29, 2015 - 3:47pm
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There was nothing mean

There was nothing mean spirited/personal or off base about Kid Salami's point. AM said similar in his own language about the intention and focus of the forum. Please don't mischaracterize is statement. Gold Dog is well respected and valued member of this community and acknowledges not going back and reading the history and mindset of this blog before he began posting his trades.

Nothing wrong with sharing what you are into since that's what we all do. Gold Dog aside, we have had a long bear market of experts telling us things without any context, any support for their statements other than I know because I know. Hasn't worked very well for alot of people.

At this juncture, I can't imagine anybody taking anybodies word for anything without understanding their paradigm. I spent three or more hours in some famous persons workshop telling us what will happen, without ever supporting his statements. It will be because I am "the man"

Martin Armstrong, AM....like them, or not, right or wrong, they tell you up front how they think, why they think that way, their methods, so you can understand the flow of their analysis. I'll never have the skills that AM has (that's a conscious decision of time investment and priorities) but I have picked up things here that I would have never ANYWHERE else on the blogisphere and hopefully enough that I will NEVER EVER be the ignorant effect of proclaimed wisdom by guys with nice suits and a smart vocabulary and a microphone. And I know where to go if I ever want to go deeper.

Where something contains concepts that you might not be familiar with, AM has given a long list of reading material for those who want to go beyond, this guy said this and this guy said that.

The opportunity to be real good at this stuff has been made available to everybody. FOR FREE. It would be almost an insult if that level of instruction came down to a handful of people throwing their own trades based on their own system. That type of free for all was prevelant at the start of Turdville. Not that I doubt people can do it and that they have something that others want to read. The main blog used to have groups of people guessing their next trades sometimes based on the day of the week and time.

Rick Ackerman used to have a very vibrant community of traders who liked somebody telling them what to do for the next 10 seconds. He seemed pretty good at that stuff. I think he gives you free time before you sign up. Nobody gives anything away for free. There has to be something given in return. Coin is only one way. 

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 8:01am
erewenguy
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Copper and Crude

Been seeing stealth price appreciation in copper and crude.

I'll step way out on that shaky limb and in my simplistic analysis, call for copper @ $5.57 by June 2017.

I know that it's dangerous to put a price and date together, so I'm more firm on $5.57 than I am on the date.

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 8:01am (Reply to #7455)
flyinkel
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Cu

What Copper stocks do you like, or are you futures?

flyinkel
Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 9:08am
erewenguy
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Copper and Silver

Could these be more out of sync?

Silver -3.83%

Copper +1.98%

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 9:21am
erewenguy
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Ha! Sorry flyinkel - not

Ha! Sorry flyinkel - not going to touch that question with a 10 foot pole!

 The Feb lows looked to me like desperation dumping. I had predicted $2.60 copper back when it was closer to $2.95, but the dump came faster than I expected, so it had further to drop.

We'll be hitting overhead resistance at about $3.

Crude is the puppet master, copper is just the puppet.

I am working from the perspective that physical anything trumps its paper doppelganger.

edit - copper lows were late Jan, not Feb

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 9:43am
redwood
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Post FOMC freefall.....yeah,

Post FOMC freefall.....yeah, that's the way the game is played. Predictable as hell.

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 9:48am
erewenguy
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Impressive display of digital

Impressive display of digital prowess.

SLV gap is closed.

Didn't even hit support yet.

No worries.

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 9:54am
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I see GL's mentioned in a

I see GL's mentioned in a post earlier the AM Blog article Outstanding Resources on How To Make Money with Charts - by Argentus Maximus with the 18 books I recommended as a baseline for gaining certain knowledge about how markets work.

It reminded me that at the time I did that one I also considered the possibility of a follow up article in which I could recommend and give a one sentence review of what might be called "the next level above" those sources already in the blog.

Two points are relevant as to whether I do that. First is there actually a desire among readers for what might be a very eclectic, and in ways obscure second reading list? I appreciate that the majority of the books in the first one are quite heavyweight in time required and we all have our daily lives to get on with.

If interested let me know by private message, or external email if no PM access, please.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So on the subject of emails I got an interesting one from a setup reader asking if this online presence is me:

https://twitter.com/argentusmaximus

https://www.startjoin.com/comment/argentusmaximus

So I looked it up and can assure everybody that it is nothing whatsoever to do with myself. The opinions expressed by that person using the same username as myself are actually very different in very many ways from my philosophy and opinions. Please don't fall for mixing up what whoever it is says with my written or video output.

So same name, similar avatar in some ways, ABSOLUTELY NO connection with myself.

And thanks to the person who did for bringing it to my attention so I could let everybody know.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

End of month is upon us folks, time to reset your stops for the next phase. I'll see what I can post to provide ideas as to what price changes may fall upon us soon!

Also, I hope you're happy to have been long since St. Patricks Day.

We are in midrange right now, and experiencing a bit of a battle for which side of trading range to move towards next. I suspect a decision has been made by the market but need a few more hints. More on this later!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The geopolitical-violence activity during the coming week could make for bouncy price moves. In a speculative effort at self improvement which may or may not be justified I try to characterize what social events will cause G-V peaks before they arrive, and this one I think/suspect/consider may be activated by actions by the gov-big finance axis. Does this anticipate central banker actions? Possibly, but it could alternatively be western govt leadership-large finance house cabal instead. So that's the guess, but it's a mile wide isn't it? As I mentioned already, watch your stops.

Mayday weekend holidays are coming so expect price volatility while various markets are closed. We are moving into a contested (bulls vs bears) period when it's cheaper for certain parties to push prices around during low volume periods or when many participants are away on holiday.

Of course when they push prices out of line that's an opportunity for the forewarned. We can profit and at the same time increase the cost of doing what the bankers call "God's Work" - maybe while speculating privately on which ethereal entity that personage and his media soundbite may have been referring to.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 10:57am
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End of month shopping time is

End of month shopping time is upon us. smiley

Has it stopped falling with or without a new low being made? He who dives in too soon can get hurt if it extends due to bulls not holding the line while under pressure.

Is the maximum push down prior to the futures close completed yet? These futures boys are a harder bunch than the options gang? I do believe that the new bulls are a hardier bunch but so far they've not been pushed all that hard, so it's difficult to tell. This week we get to see.

This one is a three day window, so there might be another move over the weekend in the Globex/spot. Bank shorts will want to get it to close below old levels if they can, but it must be costing them a bundle of physical stock recently acquired from cash desperate miners.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 12:03pm (Reply to #7461)
Silver_Surfer
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Reading list

I for one would be very interested in an expanded reading list. (Even though I'm not yet finished with the first one.)

What methods and tools do cycle following people normally use to track/discover cycles? To what extent is this an issue of specialized computer programs and to what extent something done with the by "hand"?

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Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 2:45pm
thedukes
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Brotherjohnf belangp busted

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iEj91xNnPDk?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I think this is an appropriate video to post on this forum and one in which to watch it from a neutral perspective or listen to it from both sides.

Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - 3:12pm
Cottonbelt21
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Seven ...

... via a trading friend, maybe something / maybe nothing:

"If 7 is a number of panic according to W.D. Gann et al ...

Then it is interesting that the October 2007 peak was 7.7 years from the 2000 peak and this month is 7.7 years from October 2007 high."

Price / technicals, time & volume should provide a reliable roadmap if the inevitable PM sustained move higher unfolds as I expect ... waiting patiently to get aggressive.

GLTA

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 4:05am
gold slut
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@ thedukes

Very interesting video you posted there...

Thanks for passing that along, I have to say that I have had my doubts about some of Belangp's stuff in the past.

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 5:05am
Byzantium
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Swiss franc update

This recent drop in gold seems to have been in all major currencies, so it is a true bear raid. 

As I type, we are at 1099 CHF / gold, which means that my earlier franc theory, in which we are constrained between 1100 and 1200, is now under test. It supports AM's view that this looks like a buy point. 

If we plunge below the 1100 franc support and stay below it, then my own nerves will be tested.

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 5:27am
Oboma
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looks  like a good time to

looks like a good time to buy or maybe wait another few hours. i guess these are teh low points am refers too. Now if you look back over time i see what he has been saying. seems like it's a seesaw up and down. gravity pulls it down....but then it goes back up. i guess that only happens so many times until one day it goes one way longer

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 10:48am
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I bought to add to long term

I bought to add to long term holdings, all Au, about 1.5% of PM portfolio.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, May 1, 2015 - 5:58pm
Oboma
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armstrong

seems he's calling for sub 1000

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 10:04pm (Reply to #7470)
redwood
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Perhaps some time this year

Perhaps some time this year but the miners were outperforming the metals considerably today and yesterday. We may see a nice upturn next week. Have a great w/e everyone!

randomness