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The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Apr 24, 2015 - 6:51am (Reply to #7411)
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Byzantium wrote:.... I moot

Byzantium wrote:

.... I moot that the intention has been to keep it flat, keep it dull, keep it irrelevant.......

I think you have that absolutely correct Byzantium.

Byzantium wrote:
This is admittedly at odds with one of Argentus' oft quoted sayings, 'what will not go up, will eventually go down.' But that too can be flipped; 'What will not go down, must eventually go up.' And if this neutral positioning was the intention of the market makers, then neither statement applies; because market forces have not yet been allowed a say......

It can be contained until it can't, and volatility unreleased accumulates resulting in a sharp explosive move, as we have seen in every pegged currency system, when the pegs eventually failed. We also see such a pressure release in the XAU-CHF recently.

For those who are not aware of how contrived this charts looks, here is three years weekly chart of gold-suisse with a 12.5% trading band in effect, and a pressure escape driving it temporarily to 25% trading band. (Remember the CHF is supposed to the the premier fiat currency thus acting as a receptacle for funds flow which could otherwise find their way into gold. In short I expect that the SNB is getting CB or IMF/BIS help in this matter and the so called "surprise move" was not so surprising as we are lead to believe by the media).

Is this not more important to be aware of than weaker correlations with Japanese assets to gold? The correlation Byzantium is telling us about began approximately October 2013, or some 18 months ago and is still in effect.

Swiss franc bond interest rates, gold interest rates and GOFO are surely traded to ensure this.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Apr 24, 2015 - 7:31am
Gold Dog
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Buying June Gold...

..at 1186.2 and below.

Dog

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Fri, Apr 24, 2015 - 7:45am
Gold Dog
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Buying June Gold...

..at 1186.2 and below.

Dog

EDIT- Stops now in below on same.

EDIT- Stopped at 1187.0 100 a car.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Fri, Apr 24, 2015 - 9:29am
Byzantium
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Correlation to Swiss franc

Thank you Argentus for your thoughts.

In terms of trading advantage, my take is this.

If the gold price plunges in dollars, especially if it touches or breaks through support, or through the $1,132 low, we will hear the goldbug community gasp. I myself will assume the hidden anchor to the franc and will not gasp unless it breaks down from that franc trading range. If it remains within the swiss trading range, then I hold firm.

For those more confident, then plunges in the gold price that do not contravene this franc peg, is a buy opportunity. Correspondingly, contravention of the franc peg is not a buy, but the panic prompt.

The aberrant low gold-price in Swiss francs in the last 18 months, was the CHF flash melt-up, and was 956 francs. It held for mere seconds, and I say ignore it. The next lowest was in thin trading towards new years eve; 1,054 francs. I say ignore too; low volume and central bank posturing. The legitimate low, if we talk of horizontal support, comes in at 1097 francs. Let's call it 1100 francs; that is (in my humble view) the floor of our franc trading range. 1200 francs has been briefly exceeded a few times, but seems to be the operative resistance. Those are our key levels to watch, in my view; a trading range bounded by 1100 francs and 1200 francs. Explosive moves notwithstanding, the lower is our buy point, the upper our sell point, in whatever currency you use.

Any takers?

(Disclosure: flicking between computer screens, hat-tipped myself while trying to refresh, lack of focus on Byzantium's part, was not intentional, 2 hrs community service in an orange jumpsuit now owing).

Sat, Apr 25, 2015 - 10:21am
Safety Dan
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Gold In USD....

Gold has pushed through its wedge support. The MACD, (circled in blue), shows downward too. 

Not a clear downward technical chart. It looks like downward we go.. 

Sun, Apr 26, 2015 - 1:19pm
Pete
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Test of the lows coming up.

I don't actively follow the markets anymore, but from time to time will poke around and check into what others are saying. James Flanagan remains dedicated to studying the markets, and recent videos he's released suggest that we might have seen the lows in general commodity prices, and in PMs and miners, all in the context of what happened to the crude oil price, which appears to have made an historic bottom.

So I went to look at some miner charts, and ZG also. The weekly chart of EXK (Endeavor Silver) shows a classic, long term bottom pattern where after a prolonged 5 wave corrective rally (monthly swings), we see the "final" decline into the Babson reaction line, rather perfectly, followed by a weekly reversal pattern with volume reversal to boot. The chart is attached.

Another pattern where Babson's AR method is applicable is seen in daily ZG. Here the fifth pivot is "shorter" than the third, but the basic requirement that 3 be greater than 1 when 4 is greater than 2 is met. The third pivot high is used as the action point from which to construct the reaction line. After the 0-4 line can be drawn, and is broken, expect prices to reach the reaction line. That's what's happening in gold futures now. If closing prices stay above the reaction line, a low is in the making; or, at worst, the low price of the decline must be closed below in order to signal a failure of this method to pick the low.

A share like AUY (an old favorite of mine) is also trading at/near its historic low, and if gold holds, it would appear to be a good buy candidate (not considering any fundamentals). Maybe we will see EXK probe the area above its 1.55 low, which would give a good low risk entry for a long term position. A sell stop could be on a daily close under 1.55.

Anyway, when/if June gold reaches its reaction line, I'd be watching carefully if I wanted to buy.

Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 7:48am
Gold Dog
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Selling June Gold

at 1184.3 and above.

YF,

D

EDIT- Will cover 1/2 at 1183.3.

Double edit- Adding to shorts, now at small/medium size @4.7.

Moar Selling!

C'mon bidders!!!! Will sell size @88 even if it happens soon.

Now 84 bid for 1/2.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 10:06am
Gold Dog
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Covering bid

at 84.5.

YF,

D

EDIT- Belay that...Amanda says sold more at 88. Sells above at 92.

Hitting bids! Love a short squeeze!

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 10:07am
redwood
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Nice rally again.  This may

Nice rally again. This may continue until FOMC this Wed. and then who knows.

Edit: Waiting to see if we break 1200.

Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 11:05am (Reply to #7420)
uki
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redwood wrote: Nice rally

redwood wrote:

Nice rally again. This may continue until FOMC this Wed. and then who knows.

Edit: Waiting to see if we break 1200.

and we did. Let's see what Wednesday brings.

Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 11:06am
Gold Dog
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My trigger finger...

.....is getting sore from shooting so many bullets!

Doc Dog

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 11:24am (Reply to #7422)
Kid Salami
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Yes do keep us informed, the

Yes do keep us informed, the barely coherent intra-day trade diary entries (and exclamation marks) of someone no'one knows are highly appropriate for this thread.

Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - 12:13pm
Gold Dog
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Thanks Salami!

Glad to be of service,

Your friend,

Dog

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 4:11am (Reply to #7424)
Kid Salami
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I salute you, that is some

I salute you, that is some mighty fine trolling.

Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 4:46am
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So yesterday was not the end

So yesterday was not the end of the month but options expiry, and today is not the end of month but the last trading day for the May futures contracts.

Yesterday was an up day.

Today gold open above certain moving averages, or at the upper edge of the trading range of the last month.

Which is to say that gold is at time of writing this post is off it's recent lows, with today and end of month clearance still to occur. This is good information and regular setup readers will have figured it out already. In the meantime I look forward to observing what the bears can achieve today.

Silver had a big contract open interest this month, it being an "active delivery" month for silver, so silver is the place to look next. Here's the 4 hour chart of the past month, minus the final days of April of course:

In March silver made mid month lows, then rallied up towards contract expiry, selling off into end of month.

This month silver made higher mid month lows, and sold down towards contract expiry with an options expiry rally of covering shorts, futures expiry to be completed as is end of month.

Those who believe all charts are painted and of no value are not bothering to read this, and those who look at options expiry low-damage-to-the-option- writer's sweet spot may consider what price level that sweet spot was last month and where it was this month. Today brings in the same information for the futures. This is too much for a public thread, so there are reasonable limits to this post. It's not novice TA.

It's all a work in progress, quite subtle, and only partially visible to the enquiring eye. Look carefully at the details the market reveals and refrain for starting conversations which will change outcomes for your financial future.

And the gold silver ratio has eased back to 73.385 ( at the moment). So far silver is looking more hunky in one way than for a while, while remaining under the bearish overhead resistance shown on my above chart so it's a mixed bag. Let's now watch the final act of April play on the Comex stage.

My best to all readers and contributors to "Setup".

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 4:51am
Gold Dog
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Hi Max

All this Bear Trade Troll achieved yesterday was a twelve hour gut-ache to only lose 3 grand.

LCS in Naples, FL has readily available Gold and Silver.

Your friend,

Dog

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 5:16am
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Hi Dog, I admired your

Hi Dog, I admired your bravery and candour, but I try to stay out of the intraday cockfight . Got to keep time for living.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 5:19am (Reply to #7427)
Kid Salami
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I actually quite like seeing

I actually quite like seeing other people's trades, when they have the balls to post them up front and not suddenly post midway through the trade. But without any accompanying analyis or charts, I'm just not sure it's suitable for the rhythm of this thread. But ok, who cares what I think?

Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 5:43am
Gold Dog
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I will find another...

...forum for my trades. Having just read AM's "bus" analogy, which incidentally contain the most valuable advice a trader can have re; get off the bus if it's moving in the wrong direction, Pailin's Corner or somewhere else is probably better for a day trader.

I haven't spent the time I should have exploring the new setup.

Is SLOTH a word?

AM, I got bored out of my skull after I retired. To switch residences from IL to FL means I have to be in FL for 190 days this year so I put together a proprietary set of trading signals that I am using to good effect. Sorry for cluttering up your thread with apparently indecipherable posts for people that don't know the terminology of the pros.

Your friend,

Dog

Oh yea, Short Aussie Bucks at 89 with sells above. Ha!! 

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - 6:20am (Reply to #7429)
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The charts help to understand

The charts help to understand the reasons for putting on a trade, it's true.

I have found that when a thread tries to take on multiple timeframes of trades from various contributers things get tough to keep a track of, and of course not everybody states what their time expectations or price percentage move expectations are at the outset.

Pailin's thread gets the short term stuff pretty well, despite that Pailin is prepared to wait long periods for favourable conditions to arrive before trading, lots of the other posts are to do with options and a few hours to a few days. For a trader I'd suggest to read both and try to catch on to what works, for whatever reason, and whenever it works best.

Way back when I was in the first couple of weeks after starting this thread I found myself getting sucked into the daily chatter. I knew we had a long wait for the PM bear to end, and so I took a decision to not follow active bear trades after we passed the middle of the bear. Instead swing trade the middle of the bear and then switch to long side accumulation, and a timeframe that it could still work even during a bear market. It was so I wouldn't burn out with thousands of posts completed while still within the first third of the downswing. After that I was happy to try to post daily, and if not every second day, but not more frequently than that unless answering other posts in conversation.

As a pacing effort it seems to have worked out ok. I got tired a few times but never wanted to end the thread. And readers are still coming here a couple of years later, so hopefully readers have also adopted a good pace so they last in the market conditions we must trade through.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

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