The setup for the big trade

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Pete
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Dec Gold Friday AM

The 30m and 5m charts tell the story.  What inflation stats would have been needed to prompt selling on the report?  IDK.  Where I live, everything is getting more expensive.

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Friday the 13th and it's

Friday the 13th and it's about time that I give myself a little pat on my shoulder blush

We got a bounce just as predicted.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/636417#comment-636417

The trendline isn't mine, I used information provided here. I think that is what this thread is all about. Use the thread to make good decisions when trading markets.

Mother Natures Money, pretty obvious isn't it...

When the Silver planet is brightest, the tears of the Sun feel the weakest.

Have a nice weekend!

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correction to post #10502

Being the perfectionist that I am, I couldn't let rest the suspicion that the online measuring cursor gave the wrong impression about the ml price.  So I calculated the ml value at the low basis the 30m chart.  It is 1292.85.  This translates on a practical level to 1292.9--which was the low.

On the 5m and 1m charts, the low was made on the far h value.  So, there was a clear and quite precise ml x far h at the low.

The question arises, how do you actually play this?  My feeling is to buy after the low is made at the lines and you see about where the close is going to be.  You buy at the market a few seconds before the announcement with an attached stop loss order assuming the close is above the confluence.  It's a gutsy play to make.  But we've seen many times how the top or bottom culminates with a spike up or down at just such a confluence.  Here, price broke below the 1m chart ml literally "at the last minute" to reach the far h, and then closed above it.

Or maybe you buy some arbitrary amount above the market on a stop, such as 1293.50, some 5-6 ticks higher than the close, just to go with the immediate market trend.  But who knows what the fill might be in such a stampede.  It could be points away.  Maybe there is no great way to play this.

Had I bought seconds before 8:30 ET, I think my initial stop would have been below the prior day's low.  Maybe.

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I am of many similar views as

I am of many similar views as he is:

http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-think-prices-are-manipulated-look-in-the-mirror-annual-qtrly-mthly-charts

One thing. He does not look at the longer term charts and say something to the effect of  "retest of lows before this can move forwards ". That would be a difference between my take and his. In the monthly to yearly timeframe I do look for a retest (probably) and estimated since 2014-ish in this forum thread that it would take place during the calendar year 2018. Probably.

Which is what stops are for. Practical management of either-or criteria in a realtime situation.

If the BP 1955 scenario works then the last intermediate (quarterly) low or the next one will be the "bottom to buy at" for the current biannual period. And I'm already long enough for the situation as it is, with willingness to look at all significant buying points for accumulation.

If that scenario does not play out, and I think it likely won't, then the next descent will be followed by a flattish rally and a following descent to a better low/buying point. I suppose the new year rally and what follows it decides that. This "final" retest would not have to look the same in every currency cross for gold. That is important. When currency gross charts show divergence that triggers certain preplanned responses from me.

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Update

Price is back in the upper channel since Friday...

https://s.tradingview.com/x/lTfUwscG/

And now that it has made a new low....

https://s.tradingview.com/x/mM7TFa5y/

Both of which are targeting 1380-1390 by year's end for the 1.62 fanlines.

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And we're at the end of the

And we're at the end of the continuous G-V plateau.

This was sad news:

Daphne Caruana Galizia, a prominent investigative journalist in Malta, has been killed after a powerful bomb exploded in her car

The peaks in G-V from here on for a while, sometimes at high levels, are more isolated from each other.

If you look at a chart carefully, you will notice that the price of gold, in USd which kis the main currency cross for gold, is back at the price it was at beginning of September when I posted that G-V was rising and would stay uo for six weeks, with all that this implies.

During this period, gold has risen up and failed to breakout through the July 2016 highs and then declined and is currently tricking around support visible since July 2013 approximately.

That's an annual lower high in the rear view mirror, and presently bouncing on a four year pivot. Which is a diffuse pivot price, more a range or band or zone than a particular specific price. And that makes the importance of September-early October 2017 harder to see just now. But the implications are clear. battle between the bulls and bears has been done, and the bears did not win. They didn't lose much either, yet.

There is an old saying of forex traders: a market than can not go up will try going downwards to see how easy that is.

But the recent price action was at top of range and gold is not out of that range. See it for what it is. It is the most durable rally since about 2011-2012, but it failed to break new high ground for recent years. We have passed the half way mark of the second half of 2017, which has various timelines associated with it, which have been discussed here during recent months. The location of the last and next interim highs should be noted carefully.

VAP and projection updates tomorrow. Volume spread analysis at interim lows has become vital. For those new to this phrase, it means volume of trading consumed per price given up. I use it to estimate durability of support to try to get a feel for whether that support is adequate or not.

So the second half of October beckons to us. Is this a large open interest month? Not so much. So on low volume we should not see much price fluctuation, and if we do that says that one side is shall I say, more highly motivated than the other. No comment is required, merely to note these things. The position of the see saw, the presence or not of large bodies sitting on either end of it. And so on.

The next large open interest contracts are December for silver and gold, January for gold, February for silver. I seriously doubt gold will pause for that amount of time at the current price band! Which leads my attention back to support, it's apparent robustness, and how well it resists and absorbs the (lower than usual) selling pressures of the latter half of this month.

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Spartacus Rex
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argentus maximus wrote: And

argentus maximus wrote:

And we're at the end of the continuous G-V plateau.

So What, Argentus?

This was sad news:

Daphne Caruana Galizia, a prominent investigative journalist in Malta, has been killed after a powerful bomb exploded in her car

Indeed!

However, it is quite naïve to underestimate the depths of depravity Counterfeiters & their Confederates will sink to in order to continue perpetrating their Fraud.

The peaks in G-V from here on for a while, sometimes at high levels, are more isolated from each other.

Meaning what exactly?

If you look at a chart carefully, you will notice that the price of gold, in USd(iapers) which is the main (counterfeited) currency cross for gold, is back at the price it was at beginning of September when I posted that G-V was rising and would stay up for six weeks, with all that this implies.

Again, meaning what, Argentus?

Does such implications/ “imply”:

that Real 'Money' is a Steal at these Manipulated Fiat (ie "Market") Price Levels?

During this period, gold has risen up and failed to breakout through the July 2016 highs and then declined and is currently tricking around support visible since July 2013 approximately.

That's an annual lower high in the rear view mirror, and presently bouncing on a four year pivot.

...

Have you ever tried applying the Rule of K.I.S.S., Argentus?

Simply take the known quantity of above ground stock of Gold on the entire Planet, and divide same amongst the current inhabitants of same.

How many grams of Gold per Capita does your Math figure that equates to?

For laughs, let's just imagine that some calamity were to occur which wipes out ½ the World's Population. How many grams of Gold per Capita would that amount to?

& for hysterical laughs, let's repeat that scenario once again, in which case, how many grams of Gold per Capita would exist then?

Funny how for the last Decade, China, India, (hell, All of Asia) plus Russia, even lowly Kazakhstan has been stockpiling Gold.

Can the same be said for for Great Britain, Europe, Japan, U.S., Canada, Australia, etc. ?

It is quite easy to manipulate Fiat/ “Market” Price, when the counterfeiting Banksters & their complicit lackeys in Gov'ts are working together to defraud their Citizens.

Why else does anyone think that “derivatives”, ETFs, etc., were even invented for?

No One & No Scam can defy the Laws of Economics & Nature indefinitely ( consider: John Law/ Mississippi bubble Scam) & when the Defecation Hits The Oscillation, no one alive is going to care about what “Charts” or “G V Points” reflected upon the Matter.

Got “MONEY” ?

Paper is poverty,...it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself" President Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington 1788

Wall Street had been doing business with pieces of paper; and now someone asked for a dollar, and it was discovered that the dollar had been mislaid.”

Upton Sinclair

"The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title."- Anonymous

53f8cb8ceb59ab15c6c72accde06b6eb.jpg

Cheers!

 

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I think - going from IMF and

I think - going from IMF and various other (including "Another") publications of 8 years or so ago - that there has been a view at TPTB levels that if a global fiat write down were to take place, the developed nations (the west) would have their gold hedges, but the developing nations would be wiped out unless they had natural resources. And a forceful reaction from those elites would be best avoided.

And since that time, a resource war has been waged by the western alliance/banking cabal against the eastern bloc to steal, acquire as many resources as possible prior to currency devaluation. It's gone badly for eg Venezuela, Ukraine, and a few other producers of gold or energy or with a stranglehold in energy's distribution.

It's my opinion that during this resource war conflict there has been a period of grace created wherein Russia and China could acquire their golden hedge and bring gold per capita up to similar levels as eg Germany, UK, US, Italy, France etc. It's a consideration made because of the wars that can be prevented by allowing the eastern armed powers into the club as it were.

We are not privy to the true and accurate gold holdings of these nation states, and to trust their accounting published in public would be foolhardy.

But the eastern states capable of making credible threats to mete out punishment have had going on nine years since the global financial crash, and going on 18 years since the 1999-2000 stock market top and gold bottom. Those are important time periods for medium to long term economic swings in price. When their gold holdings reach or pass the western cabal holdings per capita, watch out. It's likely that the world will have almost arrived at the next big phase.

And the Central bankers: will they end QE money printing for a pullback before the big sting, or will one flow seamlessly into the other? I assume they will go for the liquidity rug pulling exercise first to transfer assets into "the right pockets" before the main event. But it can happen otherwise.

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Market Sniper re Gann

"Some interesting stuff on W.D. Gann I just ran across. 
 
He placed great emphasis on the 90-year cycle, which, Gann advocates say, predicts a potential financial crisis occurring in 2019. This year will be 90 years after the financial crisis of 1929, which itself occurred roughly 90 years after the Panic of 1837. And a smaller cycle of note, 144 months, also coincides with 2019: 144 months is the span between 2007 (the most recent major financial crisis) and 2019. 
 
Some of Gann’s less esoteric ideas are commonly used in technical analysis tools today, often integrated into charting and trading software platforms. A common example is Gann Fans, consisting of a series of diagonal lines called Gann Angles. These angles are superimposed over a price chart to show potential support and resistance levels. 
 
 
One of the strongest pieces of evidence bolstering Gann’s reputation as a master trader hails from a 1909 Ticker and Investment Digest article by Richard D. Wyckoff, a well-respected figure on Wall Street at the time. The article describes Gann’s performance recorded by an independent observer: “During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits; twenty-two in losses. The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin.

At the other end of the spectrum, Alexander Elder, in his 1993 book Trading for a Living, presented a more skeptical view, later used as evidence by Gann doubters. "Various opportunists sell "Gann courses" and "Gann Software." They claim that Gann was one of the best traders who ever lived, that he left a $50 million estate, and so on. I interviewed W.D. Gann's son [John L. Gann], an analyst for a Boston bank. He told me that his famous father could not support his family by trading but earned his living by writing and selling instructional courses. When W.D. Gann died in the 1950s, his estate, including his house, was valued at slightly over $100,000. The legend of W.D. Gann, the giant of trading, is perpetuated by those who sell courses and other paraphernalia to gullible customers." 
 
Gann defenders counter that John L. Gann's statement should be viewed with the knowledge of the bitter falling-out that he had with his father, which stemmed from an ill-fated decision to join his father's business in the 1940s: the two wound up parting ways. "

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Its going

to take something totally catastrophic to break this stranglehold!  Forget about gold and go to sleep.  the world is totally fucked up and logic doesnt matter and hasnt for almost 10 years.  Physical is only way to own it.  

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You put it out in a very

You put it out in a very balanced way there CaptK. On balance I favour the view that he did have the inside track, namely a number of techniques unknown to other market players at that time.

And some of those techniques have been figured out since then, by virtue of computers and the calculating power now available.

There are some techniques he used that are still not in the public domain. Unfortunately the plethora of authors selling Gann-ist products are many and the number who have actually understood what he did very few. Also, beginners looking fpr a holy grail magic bullet technique get drawn like moths to a flame, and in so doing leave aside the necessary study of how to trade. Knowing how to trade is what must come first. Without that nothing else can be verified, valued, or even properly understood for what it is capable of.

There are some good Gann sources: Patrick Mikula, Myles Wilson Walker, Robert Rundle, Gann's own writings, Bryce Gilmore, this thread, a couple others. Without first learning about trading as a business they are all worthless. Coupled with that knowledge they take on a higher value.

Another thing: "market smoothers" who use averages, statistical measures, oscillators - these are people who will find Gann a byzantine tangle of nonsense. But "market teeth counters" who use fractals, wave theories, cycles, elliott wave, wolf wave, who measure the jagged parts of price looking at it raw and don't attempt to smooth it first - these people find something in Gann's work that the others can't see even after they have had it shown and explained to them

It's why this thread has taken the form of "look at this" "look at that" "this is interesting" "that might be important later" and so on. I sensitized people to something they would otherwise gloss over knowing that when they had seen the right number of variants it would become language like words or drawings to them. The fact that it makes the thread a digital-swamp for robo-skimming-algos to read and info-strip was a simultaneous pleasure. And yes there are many such algos. I have dropped keywords into my posts quite often and then scanned for replication to appear elsewhere. The record is 10 minutes, average 2 hours. Of course I don't have access to private recirculations though I know a couple of the interested parties.

So, the market is fractal. And you mentioned a certain timespan in your post. Try using alternate sized units with those numbers and see what you find. Or send me a PM. Thanks for your post.

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@AM

Just for the record AM you were dead wrong on your move in gold.  You indicated that we would see new yearly highs in gold by mid October.  Obviously didnt happen.   Are you back to the thought that we are not going anywhere for a long time me?  Years? 

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You're absolutely right there

You're absolutely right there B22.

But consider, if at any time in the medium term future the billionaires decide that they are stocked up adequately on precious metals, there will be less interest and power exerted on holding those price low after that.

We're probably within 12-14  months of that stage I'd be inclined to think.

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Well we did see a secondary

Well we did see a secondary annual high during midsummer 2017, for gold.

Unfortunately the price of gold is below that level currently. I wish it were not so, but it fits with a 2017 top formation hypothesis. A further decline and a support break would confirm it, should that come to pass.

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Weekly volume at price for

Weekly volume at price for the ETFs GLD and SLV. The metals are at equilibrium points according to VAP, with a probable further amount of volume to be traded at these levels before prices slide off (to either upside or downside) from the new S&R being presently constructed.

I left the horizontal cursor line on the price which recently attracted and will at some stage begin to repel traders. Confirmation or rejection of the recent high will have great importance in setting sentiment. VAP for gold is slightly more bullish than bearish, but I'm overall bearish overall until or unless I see these levels are pushed under the price of the precious metals. Seasonality, such as it's gentle effects are, favours the bear for the moment.

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Translation

abandon ship (again) on gold because it aint fucking going anywhere and buy garbage biotech and tech stocks until your eyes bug out.  This planet needs destroyed and rid of the bankster vermin.

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@brokerk22

Re your depressive sensationalist fatalism about evil controlled markets and how helpless we are supposed to be in them: There is no rule saying you have to pick a fight with the biggest guy in the pub. Simply enjoy your pint, calmly eat your sandwich,let somebody else get stupid and watch the fight, and keep placing your bet on the big guy until you observe miltiple others start coming in against him, then reverse your bet. Betting on the small guy early is a mistake that you can just decide to not do in the future. The great thing about the market is we can be a bull and change to a bear, get out, or change back to a bull again. What loyalty do we have to a position? None! When i trade or invest I am not on a mission, I am surfing whatever waves and ripples and turbulence I find myself in. That means accepting what comes and having an I will deal with this attitude.

Meanwhile you said earlier today:

brokerk22 wrote:
Just for the record AM you were dead wrong on your move in gold. ...

So Iit appears that this (unpaid) personal post in reply to you three months ago wasn't good enough? :

argentus maximus wrote:
July 29, 2017 - 11:26pm

... At the moment there are twin (main or favoured) scenarios in my - one for a breakout to the upside after the recent or next low - and the other for a false breakout to the upside followed by a sharp downswing to a final low for the bear.

Either of these are dealt with by holding longs from the last buying point and being careful about buying breakouts. ...

Let's look at what happened after I wrote my reply to you:

The crosshairs are on when I replied to you.

1 We got the rally. 2 it made a false breakout of the trading range. 3 just failed to break to a fresh twop year high. 4 It was a false rally and has been retraced. and 5 Now we await to see what happens next.

Dead wrong you say? Really? I disagree. I'm satisfied that I got the rally and it's outcome very closely to what happened from a date three months ahead.

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Back in the saddle

after a trip out of town.  

Right now my daily chart looks like this.  It's very early in this potential turn higher and third wave.  I've assumed we have a major pivot low in place, marked M?, and mechanically drawn the line set appropriate to this assumption.

Today saw a good-volume rally and ORD after price reached and exceeded the possible new MLH at 1280.0, all after a minor pivot zoom up.  That is the basic pattern (the "Willie Nelson") presenting itself.  (Yesterday, price missed the MLH by .5 point.)  This is a possible pivot 2, generally the most important positioning for a potential third wave higher.  Today's low is a critical technical level for the WN pattern.

Given the daily min-2 pivots (marked with dots) in the recent downtrend, there is now a possible "p5 short" pattern that projects price to the r1 line shown at a minimum, assuming price can close over the "M-1" trendline shown (actually the 0-4 line of the p5 short pattern).  

Tonight the selling has been intense enough to close an hourly bar under the new zoomed m3 ml, after price reached the far h on the 60m chart.  A sprinting advance this evening is now unlikely; we are more likely to see back and fill trade as a correction to today's thrust; from there, a new high above 1293 might be possible.  The MLH value for Friday is 1282.0 (not drawn).

I would be more bullish if there were at least 5, m3 60m pivots to today's low from the high 3 days ago, but there are only 3.  The AR line drawn (dotted)--and the retracement inside it-- suggests we may get more downside below 1278. Maybe, therefore, we get an expanded pivot formation on a 5th such pivot lower--that would be important to watch for, as the bullish potential would be greater than what there is now.  The ORD is powerful, however, and we may not get a retest of the low.

So it's too early to make any call, only to look a potential price action.  Further out, we'll see if there is sufficient buying power for price to reach any of the upside target lines, or even become a major pivot.

It's important to consider that the possible Major pivot low M? is a possible P2 in its own right, and there could be a very strong move higher into the end of the year.  We shall see.  Maybe we get a new low to make the true Major pivot low.  In that regard, the lowest trendline on this chart is very, very important to hold if gold is to retain strongly bullish potential going into 2018.  Price may very well reach it before the end of this year.

Argentus, the seasonal charts I've seen, without deep study, show that past October 31, gold is seasonally strong into end of December.  This is from 30 year charts that might mean little over the past 10 years.

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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

...

We are not privy to the true and accurate gold holdings of these nation states, and to trust their accounting published in public would be foolhardy.

...

And the Central bankers: will they end QE money printing for a pullback before the big sting, or will one flow seamlessly into the other? I assume they will go for the liquidity rug pulling exercise first to transfer assets into "the right pockets" before the main event. But it can happen otherwise.

No Sh*t Sherlock!

Funny how the absolute "bottom" in the manipulated PM's Smash Down occurred at the end of 2015

Did your "charts" and/0r GV Points indicate such?

Even more hilarious, is how certain "Precious Metals" have made astounding gains in Fiat (ie Counterfeited Currency) "Market" terms, such as  Palladium & Rhodium (versus Gold or Silver) since that bottom. 

(Hell, even lowly Copper has shown considerable gains)

WHY?

Simply because those particular Metals are not considered as actual/ real MONEY!  (thus any threat to the Banksters' & Govt's scam to defraud their Citizens)

Nevertheless however, those blessed with commonsense, knew how to take advantage of the situation and piled in, thus allowing the ability to swap those particular PMs into Real MONEY (ie Gold) this year @ a Cost Basis of merely 600 Clownbux per Ounce

Any chance that would qualify as a "Big Trade" ?

Cheers!

cad5140ac76ab47b49f701d1592d325a.jpg

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Yes Spartacus Rex and

Yes Spartacus Rex and brokerk22 I share your pain and frustration! I think Argentus is also frustrated but he is not showing it.

The walking zombie just keeps on going and going ... crapCoin explodes to the upside and keeps on going. Hey even Gold have had a rise this year, but miners ... oh sweet lord Jesus Christ and his twelve friends ...

Ok, one of my favorite miners the MUXy, again how long is a Bull-Flag. If time and price is basically the same thing this must have been leveled out by now. Added an EW count, yes it looks complete:

what frustrates me the most (besides the fact that my hometown has turned into a globalist shithole) is that I suspect a great smack coming later this year. I need to get out before the smack and I do not want to do it here of obvious reasons, look at the chart again please. I hope we will close the gap before the smacky smack arrives.

Have a nice weekend!

Edit:
I thought I was the smartest guy on the planet when I sold Novo at $2 and Garibaldi at 25c so yes that adds to the frustration right now. You can only laugh and walk forward, looking forward to a relaxing weekend with plenty of beer yes

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