The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 8:56am
Solsson
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Buhuu ILYA OYVEY always down.

Buhuu ILYA OYVEY always down. AM stated many times he want us to survive in markets without his assistance. He is not going to be around for ever. Therefore you need to think for your self, use your little gray cells. If he points out the direction without you thinking about it you will learn nothing from it.

Ok, up or down, I think up!

Look at the chart below

We just had an elbow formation and the dollar is weakening from an epic rise lately. I am in favor of an up move. See the earlier megaphone pattern. Despite a strong dollar they didn't succeed to brake the gold price into a new low.

Just my 2c and I've been more wrong than right haha ...

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 8:56am
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Gold in other currencies

I would not presume to speak for AM, but my understanding is that one of the significant bits of information he is looking at, in pointing out the potential for an upwards break in price at the nearing inflection, is the price of gold in currencies other than the USD. Especially in comparison to moving averages, these seem to show a break has already begun.

Here is gold in USD, trudging slowly downhill below its averages- 100 DMA in blue, 200 DMA in red, and the 365 (1 year) DMA in black:

But look at gold in JPY, in relation to the moving averages:

Gold in GBP:

Gold in Euro:

Worth considering, I think.

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 10:36am
redwood
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Miners

The big question as always with miners. If equity markets sell off as they are today, will miners go down as well. If we take 2008 as an example, my inclination is to say that miners will be the first to sell off to raise cash to cover other losses. But both gold and miners may go down initially with the metal leading the miners will a robust return.

Hence I think we are looking at a downturn imminently, but time will tell.

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 10:41am
erewenguy
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Miners

Redwood - with an 86% loss in GDXJ from its peak, how much cash can anyone really raise by selling off their miners at this point?

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 11:32am (Reply to #7368)
foxtrot
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Trading lesson

Argentus, this post is stupendous for a market neophyte. The absolute best I have ever read on what to look for. A terrific lesson!!! Thank you so much for all the time and thought put into this. I would be remiss in not thanking Kentucky as well for his frustration which brought your lesson into my world. Also, your boom da bass post was so creative, it really rocked!!! Thank you for all you do. You are definitely gold in my mind!!!

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 6:06pm (Reply to #7375)
redwood
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Yes, the juniors have

Yes, the juniors have performed very badly, but there are many majors that have not done so. And the royalties have performed the best. But good point nonetheless.

Sat, Apr 18, 2015 - 7:55pm
GoldMania3000
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my my.  not so lively on

my my. not so lively on turdville anymore i see. A few years have past and much of the excitment has dwindled. Wonder how many folks sold their gold and silver. Have walked away myself. Otherways to be making money and probaly cash has been the best reward.

Don't see Sprott or Rule yelling from the tree tops much lately...how many times can you say it's a buying opporunity before people either run out of money or gone broke...

Took a peek at JSMINSET. hahahha.. dollar still here....

Kingworld news--anyone still listen to that? went over last week to see what was cookenn. Yawn.....

Looks like we have a true bear on our hands. Kicks the shits out of everyone. Before you now it sprott will start buying regular equities.

Looks like another down coming and then what. does feel like it will take a few more years for the bear to end. late in the bear doens't mean that another two years is not out of the question. i honestly took from AM we would have a move to $1500 this year, but looks liek that is out of the question. Have to take matters into your own hands.

My advise to my father was to hold. but the guy is 87 years old and how do you tell a 87 year man to hold on for a little while longer. Late in the bear for him could mean the end of the game

Need to be careful who we listen to out there...screamers to buy the dips where so wrong. Can't take advice from an internet blog....big bad world out there and people survive and thrive with/without gold.

Sun, Apr 19, 2015 - 7:46am
GoldMania3000
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My sense is that this

My sense is that this actually will be another year of the bear. It does seem that we will go into 2016 with more of the same and that not sure if we actually take off. remember late in the bear means "not sure when the bull starts?"

The bull will start but it will be when most our out of the way. just have to sit back and watch. and wait...most sites will be empty by the time the bear is over

Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 7:42am
Gold Dog
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Monday Monday

Short the June DX @ 98.175 With sells above.

Long Sugar at 13.03 with buys below.

YF,

D

EDIT- Covered the DX @.125 for $50 a car.

Just bot more SB as well as Gold, Crude and Platinum. Busy Dog!

Long Crude @ 57.02--Now 56.94

Long Gold @ 1198.30 Close at 98.8 and 99.1 $65 a car.

Long Copper @ 2.746

Long Platinum @ 1160.40

Average on Sugar now 12.98.

Now we wait.

Your friend,

Patient Dog

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 9:18am
Gold Dog
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Buy Moar!

Now long;

Copper @ 2.741

Platinum @ 1158.47

Sold the Crude at 7.02 for $90 a contract.

Lots of copper down here! ;-)

....and Platinum.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 9:50am (Reply to #7381)
erewenguy
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Would love to see copper stop

Would love to see copper stop right here, but double top on daily copper might push it to 2.70. If that doesn't hold, $2.65. caveat emptor - I don't trade copper, but have longer term interests in the market.

Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 9:54am
Gold Dog
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Out of HG

But didn't post pricing so no totals. (Made a few farthings though.)

Long PL @ 54.1.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 2:15pm (Reply to #7378)
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In response I think I need to

In response I think I need to mention that I am long gold. I think I might have said it before and possibly nobody noticed, or maybe it's unclear what that means. Maybe I said it many times but for some reason I keep on having to repeat this.

To put it another way the top of my mountain is a lonely place, everybody else seems to be using submarines looking for the outcome for precious metals, but where I am the sky looks clear and blue. I like the ambience here. Someday it will get crowded and I'll have to leave.

Did readers notice that the gold:silver ratio hit 75.084. A guy ought to look into that.

Just as a reminder ... this is the middle of April of which I said months ago that late bear sellers would make their play to provide me with nice prices, and silver is down 2% today making it's lowest price in the last 22 days which is the lowest purchase quotes for a trading month give or take.

So I watching and waiting with no reason to be depressed. These are important times.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 2:28pm
Byzantium
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Re GSR

"Did readers notice that the gold:silver ratio hit 75.084."

I did. That was my prompt to start converting some swing custodial gold to silver again; a bit at every notch upwards from here. 

Once at a profitably lower level, I'll reverse the trade. Hopefully the wait won't be long. I'll be a loser if we get stuck above 75 for a long time. ;-) 

Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 3:10pm (Reply to #7384)
redwood
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In case I've given the

In case I've given the impression that I expect continued lower prices, I don't. It's just that my time frame is never more than a few days, sometimes a couple of weeks. Yes, I am also expecting a miraculous bounce, I just don't think we are quite there yet. Next week there will be (one of) the deadlines for Greece, precisely April 24. It may be the time we'll see the fireworks perhaps. I believe that corresponds to one of your dates as well AM. WS.

Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 3:16pm (Reply to #7384)
erewenguy
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Certainly have noticed AM.

Certainly have noticed AM. I've been buying low gold for some time, but had to pick up a small amount of silver today just for principle. Haven't bought in a while, and I was satisfied @ $15.90.

Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 5:52pm
GoldMania3000
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my only

issue is that AM came here to late...we all got beat up. could buy more now but just going to hold what i have. suspect we all make our $ back and then some. would have been nice to have sold all at the top to re buy at the lows.

Tue, Apr 21, 2015 - 3:57am (Reply to #7388)
fslade
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GoldMania3000 wrote:would

GoldMania3000 wrote:

would have been nice to have sold all at the top to re buy at the lows.

Keep em coming GoldMania, I could do with a laugh.

PS. any "issue" you have is nothing to do with AM but something you have to tackle yourself - this goes for the others on this board constantly asking what will happen (or doing so indirectly by putting words in AM's mouth to suit their bias). AM has stated clearly, he doesn't know and neither does anyone else - and when someone tells you with confidence what definitely will happen, what you take from it is that they are a fake. His comment a couple of days back with the bus analogy hit it out the park - please reread it and ponder it until you understand (this could take months) and stop pretending there is some easy, fast and pain free way to make piles of money in the markets. There isn't - you'll know your "issue" is resolved when you reread your "would have been nice to have sold all at the top to re buy at the lows" statement and find it hilarious.

Tue, Apr 21, 2015 - 7:52am
Gold Dog
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Trailing stop..

...on PL.

As info.

YF,

D

PS- I'll quit wasting pages on trades now.

PPS- Except for PM positions.

Edit- Speak of the Devil....short May Silver @ 16.105 with sells above. (Small position.)

Now short Gold too....@1200.5 with sells above.

SI @ 16.135 w/sells above. <---now low/medium size.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace
Tue, Apr 21, 2015 - 8:38am
Gold Dog
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Bought back...

...most of the Silver. Letting the rest run on a trailing stop. <---Covered too.(Thanks for playing!!)

YF,

D

Gold now short @ 0.8 with sells above.----Covered.

"Gold will be master or slave."- Horace

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