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The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Mar 29, 2015 - 4:18pm (Reply to #7291)
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argentus maximus wrote:While

argentus maximus wrote:

While the western news concentrates on lethal aid to Ukraine, the press elsewhere looks at commercial business of revenue generating exports instead:

https://youtu.be/YRn5vSrcObM?t=14m6s

The brainwashing is profound ain't it. 

My guess is the collective will be manipulated into becoming interested in gold again when the time is right. It's near impossible not to be influenced by these forces as long as you put your attention on it. Aye conundrum.

Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - 2:53pm
Solsson
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Long time no see GL welcome

Long time no see GL welcome back.

O'boy, this is so boring, gold is walking forward in slow motion. Experienced traders always trade with the wave behind them, surf the wave, so I've heard.

The wave in gold is pointing down, buy the top, sell the low, shorting is the deal, let the trend be your friend and so forth.

Moving average is nice for some traders but a trust worthy trendline is easier to read. The same amount of dots above as underneath marks the trendline. When will this trend brake? I don't know hopefully soon, or to be more specific midsummer as AM pointed out a couple of weeks ago. Simultaneously with a hike in interest rates and a blow off top in stock markets!?

Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - 4:45pm (Reply to #7293)
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Solsson wrote:.... hopefully

Solsson wrote:

.... hopefully soon, or to be more specific midsummer as ...

The coming week decides many issues. Now through 7th April, with the first half being more related to gold price inflections, and the second half in connection with a huge peak on G-V.

So before seeing how things pan out and looking ahead, in general I am looking for a place to buy, and for that gold has to become weak, already happening, and stop falling at some sort of a discernable support level.

Selling of gold is expected to peak during the period end March to middle of April. The performance of the gold price during these two weeks will measure the power of the bears. If after the middle of April gold is located above or below the price range of this fortnight, that will decide me on whether to be bullish or bearish for the rest of the moment. If above, I buy lows.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - 9:17pm (Reply to #7294)
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As always, thanks AM.  Your

As always, thanks AM. Your contributions are always appreciated as they help me to solidify my thinking. I am always looking forward in this crazy maze that never tires. Like life I've come to appreciate it as a journey rather than as an end point. It is the only way one can engage imo.

Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - 10:47am
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A big hat tip to Fatso for

A big hat tip to Fatso for posting this link on the Main St thread:

If you want to get a monetary flow understanding of 1970 and dollars problems defaulting then, to the situation with Euro problems and defaults today, this is must viewing:

Yanis Varoufakis: The Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy

It take an hour but the economics explained makes it worth it imo.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - 12:25pm
Cottonbelt21
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Inverse Indicies ...

... for gold & silver - bullish on the margin and probably belongs in the 'magazine cover' indicator category

https://www.commodities-now.com/news/portfolio-management/18514-s-p-gsci-gold-and-silver-inverse-indices-launched.html

Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - 12:36pm
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@Cottonbelt: Wow! Does it

@Cottonbelt: Wow! Does it come any more contrarian than that? Now we have inverse funds in PMs.

Next a recommendation from MSM, Goldman et al to buy into such a fund ?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - 7:03pm (Reply to #7296)
foggyroad
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AM

Thank you for the 'Yanis' youtube, it didn't disappoint and also your wise words in season.

I hope things with your Mum have stabilized, and become less worrisome and more comforting to Her, and the your Family.

God Bless You and your Near and Dear.

I too, am fond of Black Ale.

Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - 7:45pm (Reply to #7296)
SamSchlepps
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Great Video and FWIW

its a great video and hopefully he's causing tremendous stomach acid in the EU behind the scenes.

this may have been a known and if olde hat, do apologize, but seems a bright light or dot in the overall picture.

Some international organizations maintain their accounts in SDRs or accounting units linked to the SDR. For example, the Arab Monetary Fund maintains its accounts in Arab Accounting Dinars (AAD). In March 2003, the Bank for International Settlements decided to adopt the SDR as its unit of account, replacing the gold franc.

https://philosophyofmetrics.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/finalvision_sove...

Wed, Apr 1, 2015 - 11:32am
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Two pivots

Basis Spot Gold in USD

17th March 1153.xx

31st March 1178.xx

Stops may now be fine tuned accordingly

I have not bought today because I retained my long positions. But end of month yesterday and today was/is a buying point with stops. If I had insufficient gold I would be motivated now basis liquid/ more agile instruments, and basis physical metal which has essentially no stops I await the coming inflections to provoke a drop.

There is a possibility of retracement and pullback for retest (and attempt to break uptrend) approx at inflections due 3-6April, and 13-20 April. After mid April it's a whole new game and we need to be on the right side and go with it. that process is already filtering into the market and even if I don't post here I'm paying close attention.

Did anybody see this article on GATA? It's from a little while back and sounds very bearish for gold:

https://www.gata.org/node/5272

But I'm not all that much concerned about it for certain seasonal type reasons. laugh

The Q2 2015 RNP Webinar for current RNP-ers is scheduled for tomorrow (9pm BST) as already advised by emails - wherein we will try to tease this gold & silver stuff out some more and also look at other markets/stocks. Non RNP-ers can jump on for the online meeting and 1 month of RNP for 31.105g of Ag mailed or fiat equivalent if they wish to test drive something completely different. Meeting passwords go out via email during the day basis sub status as at tomorrow 12:00 BST. We should have our usual 2 - 3 hours to cover substantial ground and I'm looking forward to it. Think up your toughest questions and put me under pressure!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Apr 1, 2015 - 12:43pm
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Volume at price weekly SLV update

Volume at price with long term cyclical inflections weekly SLV update. it will pretty much govern SLV for the next six months or so:

 

Important price bars in red, support-resistance proximate to current price marked with horizontals.

Attractive prices - blue horizontals

Repelling prices - green horizontals

There's a good short term blue horizontal at about 17.80 that this timescale view hides.

Dates things happen - red verticals from both windows

Last red vertical last week March, next red vertical 11 August (but it is big picture filtered)

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Apr 1, 2015 - 1:35pm
erewenguy
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SLV

SLV looks like it wants to make a run for the 200 day MA

edit - which is pretty close to your nearby blue attractive line AM

Wed, Apr 1, 2015 - 9:17pm (Reply to #7301)
redwood
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I think I prefer this guy's

I think I prefer this guy's explanation as to why it is still not feasible to create gold in the lab.

https://sciencequestionswithchris.wordpress.com/2014/05/02/can-gold-be-c...

Thu, Apr 2, 2015 - 11:34am
november4
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april 6 prediction

So, then, is there a consensus on the April 6 BLSBS? The preliminary signs indicate it will portend decline, thus further postponing the rate hike that many believe will never arrive in any case. If so, should one buy the leveraged miners today (NUGT, JNUG, USLV)?

Thu, Apr 2, 2015 - 12:11pm
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I am in range trading mode

I am in range trading mode for the moment.

Between now and mid April I await a major inflection and hope for a breakout from the short term range, and soon after the medium term trading range also.

Technically this should be a break to lower prices. Technically the metals are weak when looked at in USD. Seasonally this should give to lower prices too, but seasonals are weak in recent years.

Cyclically the volatility is also forecast to increase, the breakout is also likely, but the specific direction of the break is more neutral, which is to say the odds it may be to the upside are far higher than technicals suggest.

I rate cyclicals as better reliability than technicals, but I do NOT ignore one over the other. I am saying let the market decide and await the break, expect false breaks, expect a significant move to get started. I am long physical, I have no leverage. I have hedged stocks and bonds downside moves for the moment.

Miners ... I will look at very many charts at the webinar tonight and if something interesting comes up put a post or two in Setup during the Easter week.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Apr 3, 2015 - 9:51am
Safety Dan
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Silver charts now have a

Silver charts now have a double confirmation of a $12.50 price target

Is $12.50 Silver possible? In one word … YES!

Posted by PeterLBrandt

on April 2nd, 2015

The 15-month weekly chart descending triangle completed in Sep 2014 and retested in Jan 2015 produced a possible profit target of 12.15. I have privately and publicly wondered if this target was too low and unattainable. After all, 12.15 would represent a price decline of 76% from the Apr 2011 bull market high. Keep in mind that chart targets are not sacred, but can provide some indication of what might be possible.

4.2_SI_W_desc tri

A new development has taken place in Silver. The daily chart now exhibits a possible 5-month continuation H&S pattern. This pattern is in the right shoulder at the present time. This daily chart pattern still has much work to accomplish. First, the present right shoulder high in the 17.40 to 17.50 zone must contain the current advance. Second, prices need to roll over and begin trending toward the neckline at 15.30. Finally, a decisive close below the neckline is required to declare the 12.15 target as an increasing possibility.

4.2_SI_D

Markets: $SI_F$SLV

https://peterlbrandt.com/is-12-50-silver-possible-in-one-word-yes/

Sat, Apr 4, 2015 - 10:01am (Reply to #7307)
fslade
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Continuation head and

Continuation head and shoulders pattern? I must have missed that one - as must the authors of the two shelves of TA books I have. Either that, or Peter Brandt is - to use the technical term - making shit up to rationalise what he thinks will happen. Price could go anywhere - including 12.50 - but wherever it goes, it won't be down to an invented and nonsensical TA pattern.

Sat, Apr 4, 2015 - 10:45am
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Well in my book a head and

Well in my book a head and shoulders pattern becomes a head and shoulders pattern if there is a neckline break. I don't see one on that chart, but some day it may happen.

Looking into the vague area to the right side of the last price tick I give this weekly update of the GLD fund with three competing harmonic price projections. Similarities and differences can be readily seen. Also the reason I am cautiously bullish, but will be more bullish after the coming two weeks have passed are visually depicted here, though it's essentially a visual display of the output from other unshown toolsets applied to the GLD price.

Nearly there but with a last downswing to appear, and alternatively perhaps already arrived and it's done ready to reverse would describe the situation as best I can put it at this stage. This chart might also serve to partially illuminate the varying forecasts of other cycle analysts out there competing for attention.

The vertical cursor line in black highlights another interesting period due later in 2015. It may become a low, higher or lower depends on many things, but I mention it explicitly as looking too fast at this chart it's easy to fail to notice many things. I would take possibly 15 minutes to study this chart if I saw it for the first time, and then I might do some hours of research into it's implications, but that's me. People vary.

The red should be more reliable, but they all have their moments. Of course the GLD price is perfectly free to ignore my wiggly lines completely and go another different way into the future. Only track record can be used to attempt to calculate probability of success there, and the usual disclaimers always that past performance is no indicator of future performance, and they regulate markets so they should know best.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Reminder that all past liability disclaimers on this thread/forum still apply: This is not investment or financial advice, but a log of work presented for discussion, study and entertainment only. The author trades his own work and has always a vested interest that it will work out, but never relies on that and uses stops and other risk limitation devices and strongly advises others consider the use of similar tested techniques. Everybody is ultimately responsible for their own trading decisions, and losses can easily be larger than capital traded when leverage works against the trader. Get your own professional advice, educate yourself as to the risks, trade significantly smaller than you think wise until you statistically know your capability measured over eg 100+ trades.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Apr 4, 2015 - 5:00pm (Reply to #7308)
fslade
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I just picked out my copy of

I just picked out my copy of John J Murphy's 'Technical analysis of the futures markets' to prove how a H&S continuation pattern is idiotic, only to find that on page 168 there is a whole section titled 'the continuation head and shoulders pattern'. So maybe, er, ignore that post. 

Sat, Apr 4, 2015 - 5:39pm (Reply to #7310)
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I've also heard them called

I've also heard them called "failed H&S". I tend to simply regard them all as consolidations with infinite variety and don't really try to put names on them. The support and resistance is what matters.

But while they get talked about a lot in media, a H&S is more than just a price pattern, and there is a H&S volume pattern which should accompany the price pattern.

The volume should be confirming a H&S whereby it increases on swings in one direction and diminishes onm swings in the other direction. Also the breakout requires expanding volume.

I remember that Harry Schultz, retired at an advanced age, used to do a lot with failed H&Ss as continuation signals and he had an illustrious career as a market analyst.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

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